Ukraine 2014

[RoryAndersonCDT]

1613th Independent Artillery Battalion I think, TOE lists 18x 2S1 Gvozdika.
Subordinate to 810th Independent Naval Infantry Brigade.






Note the Russian colors painted on for IFF purposes.

[CommanderNimitz]

Psh, CNN nubs can't tell the difference between a tank and an arty piece... [:-]

[Sardaukar]

ORIGINAL: CommanderNimitz

Psh, CNN nubs can't tell the difference between a tank and an arty piece... [:-]

For most of them, if it has tracks, it is a tank... [:D]

[Terminus]

It's not really that relevant either. This whole nerdery over what vehicle is what rings a bit hollow when we're looking at an actual war about to start. Bit immature, really.

[Blu3wolf]

on the other hand, it might be a legitimate distinction to make if you are analysing what exactly is going on.

...nerdery... because of course that is what warfare is.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

http://www.aljazeera.com/

[mx1]

ORIGINAL: Baloogan

http://www.aljazeera.com/

This approval is just a formality. Upper house voted for just a couple of seconds ago.

[Terminus]

And the invasion has already been going for a few days, so yeah... Russian democracy! Wooo!

[guanotwozero]

So what do you reckon is the aim? Hive off Crimea as a separate state (which later joins Russia in 10/20 years) or as a bargaining chip to return Yanukovych to power as part of a 'national salvation deal'?

[Terminus]

That's the big question, isn't it? Nobody knows what's going on inside Putin's skull, except that it's going to be bad for everyone.

[Blu3wolf]

[Citation Needed]

[NakedWeasel]

My guess is, the action is about maintaining their Black Sea naval base, and relevance in that region. At least on the surface. It should also be noted that this region is also where the main body of oil and gas pipelines between Central Asia and Europe flows. The Crimea is extremely important to Russia's strategic national interests.

[Terminus]

He's trying to provoke the Ukrainians so he can respond with overwhelming force. Classic dictator tactics.

[NakedWeasel]

And he's feeling fairly assured that the US just blinked, and will let him get away with it. This President is out to lunch.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

Current Ukraine scenario; updated as of yesterday.

And I'm off to work.. Please pray for the people of Ukraine, who are facing the Bear alone.

[guanotwozero]

Well, I don't reckon securing the Sevastopol naval base is really the issue, as the current lease lasts until 2042. I also don't reckon that any US president (not just the current one) would respond with direct military force, as the 'back yard' idea still holds to some extent.

I suspect Putin has a scaled plan, depending on how it plays out, but top of the list would be a Crimea grab, Abkhazia-style. His main concerns will likely be of a Ukrainian military response, and of punitive economic sanctions which could hurt Russia significantly. Also, if Russia blatantly breaks the Budapest Accord, it means it will be hard for them to do any sort of international deals in the future. At least as long as he is in power.

If this does escalate to war, the West will likely support Ukraine in terms of diplomacy, economy and even weaponry, but not direct military intervention. However, due to the geography of the Crimea and relative forces, Ukraine's military options don't look that good.

[RoryAndersonCDT]

[CaptCarnage]

Yeah there wasn't any hint by the new Ukr government thst they were going to annul the Sebastopol agreement. Probably much to Russia's disappointment.

So far Russia has done a lot to provoke a war.

After Yanukovich fled, there was a Pro-Russian revolt in Crimea. The new Ukr government refused to send in the army to prevent escalation. Then "unknown" soldiers occupied airports. Again nothing happened.
But then a "group of armed men from Kiev" attacked a government building on the Crimea. That and a few orchestrated protests in Eastern Ukraine (see pic, Donetsk) gave enough reason for military action.

I reckon they are going to get a better handle on Ukraine than if Yanukovich stayed in power.

[guanotwozero]

ORIGINAL: Skyhigh
I reckon they are going to get a better handle on Ukraine than if Yanukovich stayed in power.

In the short term, yeah, but likely not the long term. Ukraine has effectively just had a people-power revolution, and like in most revolutions, there is a period of chaos and uncertainty until the new authorities assert their control.

Thus Ukraine is now at its most vulnerable, and Putin's taking advantage of that. As the new government gets its act together, it will be harder for Putin to do so without a significant response. Short of a full-scale invasion, I don't see how he'll be able to control Ukraine in the longer term, or even hold onto the areas of Russian-speaking majorities without major international repercussions.

The worst possible scenario is a full occupation which will likely result in an extended resistance war, and Russia's unlikely to ever suppress that given the international sympathy and support for 'free Ukrainians'.

I reckon Putin's only meaningful game is a quick one. OTOH even if it results in a withdrawal as part of a deal which secures the rights of Russian-speakers, it may boost his image at home as a tough guy that stands up for ethnic Russians everywhere.

FWIW I don't think the Ukrainian far-right have the slightest chance of any power so the rights of Russian-speakers aren't in any real danger anyway, but it suits Putin's plan that they exist. It's notable that he and others consistently label their opponents as fascists supported by the West, doubtless playing to a certain domestic audience.

[NakedWeasel]

Upper house to demand recall of Moscow ambassador to U.S. , U.N. Security Council to hold emergency meeting on Ukraine crisis

So for scenario building purposes, the stage is set. The Russians commit a sizable force to Crimea. The Ukrainians resist and a number of civilian partisans are rounded up in public protests and butchered. The UN votes to place serious sanctions on Russian finances and trade. Russia responds to said sanctions by cutting energy and fuel supplies to West Europe. NATO responds to "Russian aggression" by sending weapons shipments into Crimea via Georgia and Romania. Russia attacks NATO convoys in Georgian territory. NATO defends further arms shipments with fighters, downing multiple Russian aircraft. NATO flotilla enters Black Sea. Russian tanks troops massively advance across Ukrainian border. NATO attacks Russian ground forces with massive airstrikes. Russia sinks multiple NATO vessels.

DEFCON 2

Russian and NATO nuclear forces are placed on full alert.

A final misstep is made. Unsure of what this is right now, it'll come to me as I play test it out.

DEFCON 1, SIOP: Counterforce

Scary stuff. Hard to tell where the game ends and reality begins.