OT: Another 295...

[Terminus]

ORIGINAL: Doggie3

I don't buy the mistake theory. If they are smart enough to operate the SA-11 system (and I assume they only used the TELAR) they are smart enough to know what they are looking at. The Firedome radar will tell them the difference between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).

Who ever pressed that button knew they weren't firing at a military target. Why? That's more the mystery.

RIP crew and passengers, I hope it was quick.

There's no reason to do this. For ANYBODY. It was a mistake.

[Itdepends]

I agree- without a terrorist organisation claiming responsibility it's hard to see what any of the parties involved could gain from this unless they sought to blame it on one of the others.

[wdolson]

ORIGINAL: wdolson

From what I've heard most airlines who normally fly over the Ukraine have been diverting their flights. Apparently Malaysia Airlines decided not to do that.

This has been a difficult year for Malaysia Airlines 777 fleet.

Bill

ORIGINAL: btbw
No restriction for flight over Donbass except air traffic service routine echelon higher then 7900m. All warning from FAA talking about Crimea area.
Before incident.

I heard that later in the day.

Bill

[wdolson]

ORIGINAL: Doggie3

I don't buy the mistake theory. If they are smart enough to operate the SA-11 system (and I assume they only used the TELAR) they are smart enough to know what they are looking at. The Firedome radar will tell them the difference between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).

Who ever pressed that button knew they weren't firing at a military target. Why? That's more the mystery.

RIP crew and passengers, I hope it was quick.

There are many scenarios where it could have been a mistake, even by an experienced crew.

Back in the 90s a Ukrainian missile battery was shooting at drones, one overshot and hit an airliner. As others have said in this thread, there probably are people who are ex-Soviet, ex-Russian, or ex-Ukrainian military among the rebels and some of those people probably have the training to use a large SAM system. I haven't heard any reports about whether there were other planes in the area or not. It's quite possible there was an Ukrainian military plane at a lower altitude and the missile overshot like what happened to the Ukrainian military about 20 years ago.

I've been hearing all day about the number of SAMs that have taken out airliners over the years including the well trained crew of the USS Vincennes taking down an Airbus.

We may or may not learn the truth. It depends on who gets hurt if the truth comes out and how good they are at covering their tracks. No matter what did happen, 300 innocents who didn't have a dog in the fight were killed. For their sakes I hope justice is served.

RIP. I also hope for their sakes it was quick.

Bill

[btbw]

Another view of SA-11 in Toresa city occupied by separatists.

There are many scenarios where it could have been a mistake, even by an experienced crew

Separatists targetted AN-26 (as they think) and claimed they shoted down it (it second time, before July 14 on alt 6500 - cannot be reached by Stinger class SAM).
After found 200+ bodies on their territory this bravery information deleted. But google cache remember it.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Itdepends

I agree- without a terrorist organisation claiming responsibility it's hard to see what any of the parties involved could gain from this unless they sought to blame it on one of the others.

ORIGINAL: Terminus

ORIGINAL: Doggie3

I don't buy the mistake theory. If they are smart enough to operate the SA-11 system (and I assume they only used the TELAR) they are smart enough to know what they are looking at. The Firedome radar will tell them the difference between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).

Who ever pressed that button knew they weren't firing at a military target. Why? That's more the mystery.

RIP crew and passengers, I hope it was quick.

There's no reason to do this. For ANYBODY. It was a mistake.

I'm not convinced.

On the surface it's bad for the seperatists/Russians, but it goes deeper than that. It's spiked international attention on the situation in the Ukraine, so you've now got nations that previously had no real interest in the Ukraine pushing for a resolution (because airliners getting shot down are really bad for buisness). On top of that, it also piles on a load of pressure on Kiev, because airliners getting shot down over your own territory by separatist forces is terrible press.

In return, the seperatists can make any number of excuses, from "We thought it was a military plane. Why was it flying over a war-zone" to "It wasn't us!". It may or may not be belived, but that's not the point.

In short, it's putting big pressure on Kiev. They either have to start pushing the seperatists out with military force (exactly what Putin wants) or de facto cede large parts of Eastern Ukraine to the seperatists (also what Putin wants). Say what you want about Putin as a leader, but it seems like he wins even when it seems like he's losing.

[btbw]

Well if world still dont understand who shot down Boeing then Putin wins.

[Encircled]

Putin has already blamed the Ukrainians for "not accepting a ceasefire"

Suggests he knows who has shot it down, and it then begs the question just how pressure on the separatists are the Ukrainians managing to put on?

If they are doing better than expected (certainly better than Putin expected) and the separatists are in trouble, and Putin knows he can't risk invading, then his only chance is to somehow create the situation where a ceasefire is declared and a de facto separation takes place. He wins.

Anyone else think a KGB trained officer would shrink from a course of action like that?

(Apologies to mind messing, its pretty much what you are saying)

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Terminus

ORIGINAL: Doggie3

I don't buy the mistake theory. If they are smart enough to operate the SA-11 system (and I assume they only used the TELAR) they are smart enough to know what they are looking at. The Firedome radar will tell them the difference between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).

Who ever pressed that button knew they weren't firing at a military target. Why? That's more the mystery.

RIP crew and passengers, I hope it was quick.

There's no reason to do this. For ANYBODY. It was a mistake.

You are overlooking the simple fact the pure unadulterated malice can lead individuals to do things that there is no rational explanation for and is not in their own best interest.

There is usually no shortage of malice in a war zone.

[oldman45]

I can envision a scenario where a rebel battery commander orders the crew to fire even though the observers suggest not to. The men with the guns tend to be in charge. In my life I have found that most real soldiers do not desire to take civilian lives on a whim. Nut cases and thugs with guns in uniform on the other hand don't care.

[Rising-Sun]

Well they shouldnt flew into that war zones in the first place, never know what may happen. And look like the whole world now know it isnt safe there anymore.

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: RisingSun

Well they shouldnt flew into that war zones in the first place, never know what may happen. And look like the whole world now know it isnt safe there anymore.

It isn't a warzone. The only ones shooting planes down are the separatists(and apparently the Russians from across the border). There have been hundreds of civilian flights through the area daily since the beginning of the entire Ukraine-Russian-sponsored separatists-Russian thing.

Trigger happy idiots.

[crsutton]

I tend to go with those who think that it was just a dumb mistake. Logic dictates that no side could benefit from this action. But who knows, anything can happen in a conflict? And, I stick to my earlier comment. There really are no clear cut good guys in this. Expect the worst, the history of this region is tragic, brutal and sad, and goes back a long way.

[KenchiSulla]

Mistake or not, it is a war crime and the ones responsible should be found and judged.... People here in the Netherlands are pretty shook up about what happened. Personally I am pretty angry with the retards who pulled the trigger...

OVSE observers are being held 500 meters from the wreckage and are not allowed to go near it...

[Dili]

between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).

It could have been be a bomber, a fighter plane.
The mistake is flying above a combat territory, but since the media dropped the ball following it is like it doesn't exist for many - a bit like Syria now - while we go to a military forum and it is all there, so the mistake is even more with aeronautical authorities.

[warspite1]

Well I'll chuck my two GBP in.

I think its most likely to be a stupid - albeit criminally stupid - mistake. Cannot conceive of anyone, for any reason, actually thinking this would be a good idea and actually plan such an atrocity.

Give boys big boy toys and this is likely to be the result [8|]. Whoever did it, from whatever side, it was a criminal act that needs to be punished....but I doubt it ever will be [:(]

[Jones944]

ORIGINAL: RisingSun

Well they shouldnt flew into that war zones in the first place, never know what may happen. And look like the whole world now know it isnt safe there anymore.

Please don't make the mistake of blaming the victims.

[panzer cat]

We can only hope that it was a mistake. I'm sure the sa-11 launcher has been destroyed and the crew has disappeared.

[tocaff]

Anybody care to bet that some nobody will become the fall guy here? I doubt very much that any higher ups in the chain of command will ever be blamed officially and some underling will get thrown under the bus to kill the backlash.

[btbw]

ORIGINAL: Dili

between an AN-26 (service ceiling of 7,500m and critically a cruise speed of 237knots) vs a 777-200 ER (10,000 at 490knots).

It could have been be a bomber, a fighter plane.
The mistake is flying above a combat territory, but since the media dropped the ball following it is like it doesn't exist for many - a bit like Syria now - while we go to a military forum and it is all there, so the mistake is even more with aeronautical authorities.

it was not combat territory
ukraine dont have state of war with any country

I doubt very much that any higher ups in the chain of command will ever be blamed officially and some underling will get thrown under the bus to kill the backlash.

what command you talking about?
bandits and terrorists dont have command or mercy or honor
Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation:
“Let anyone from the military dare shoot at their own people which we will be behind, not in front but behind, let them try and shoot at women and children. Let me see who in the Ukraine will give such an order.”