Fischia il Vento - loki100 vs smokindave34 ... German marginal victory T94

[JocMeister]

No need to hit U-boat factories that are damaged. As long as they have a single point of damage all will be considered as damaged. So if a 35 point factory has 1 damage all 35 points will be considered damaged. Fantastic design! [:)]

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

No need to hit U-boat factories that are damaged. As long as they have a single point of damage all will be considered as damaged. So if a 35 point factory has 1 damage all 35 points will be considered damaged. Fantastic design! [:)]

I admit I don't have the game and don't know the rationale for this, but it seems like an exploit to a naive reader.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

No need to hit U-boat factories that are damaged. As long as they have a single point of damage all will be considered as damaged. So if a 35 point factory has 1 damage all 35 points will be considered damaged. Fantastic design! [:)]

I admit I don't have the game and don't know the rationale for this, but it seems like an exploit to a naive reader.

I think that JocMeister is wrong here. The production rule is the same as WiTE. In other words a factory either produces or it doesn't and the level of damage is the % chance of non-production. So a 10% damaged factory, on average will produce 9 turns out of 10

For VP the interaction is different

Rule 25.11 states "SBPs [Strategic bombing points] are equal to the size of the factory type (number factory points)
times damage percentage divided by 1000"

So the VP value for a facroty is factory type*size*level of damage/1000. All these are added up and divided by the

"SBP Date adjustment divisor is as follows:
§§ 1943: 6
§§ Jan-Jun 1944: 9
§§ Jul-Dec 1944: 12
§§ 1945: 18"

So by late 1944, bombing yields only half the VPs it did in 1943.

But its worth bombing out factories to 100% if you are hunting VP, which with few exceptions seems to be the main payback for strategic bombing

[Helpless]

I think he speaks about U-boat points, not the SBP's

U-Boat Factory Negative VP
During 1943 only, the damage percentage of U-Boat
factories may result in the Western Allies scoring
negative victory points during the Logistics Phase of the
Allied turn equal to U-Boat point divided by 10. U-Boat
points (UPs) are calculated by summing up the size
(number of factory points) of all undamaged (less than
one percent damage) U-Boat factories.

Trying to understand why it is an "exploit".

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Helpless
Trying to understand why it is an "exploit".

I never called it an exploit. I even said "fantastic design"...admittedly being a tad ironic with that. [;)]

Its a quite intuitive rule that makes little sense. A much better and logical system would have been to calculate to total number of undamaged u-boat factories and basing the VPs on that. Right now you can remove a big "factory" entirely from the calculation by doing just 1% damage. Its like the entire factory shut down because a bomb landed nearby and busted a couple of windows.

Not complaining though. The WAs need all the VP help they can get.

[Helpless]

I never called it an exploit.

It was claimed in other reply.

Its a quite intuitive rule that makes little sense. A much better and logical system would have been to calculate to total number of undamaged u-boat factories and basing the VPs on that. Right now you can remove a big "factory" entirely from the calculation by doing just 1% damage. Its like the entire factory shut down because a bomb landed nearby and busted a couple of windows.

Not arguing that it could be designed different (ex. setting higher percentage), but since u-boats are political type of targets current system is quite logical to me (even if it is not designed by me). Germany is getting points for the unchecked u-boat production sites. There are no down factories which are measured, but happiness of High Command, which is quite historical for the target of such types.

Sorry for the thread hijacking.

[jwolf]

I wasn't trying to accuse anyone of anything, but rather giving my naive impression as an outsider, in ignorance of the actual rules. My apologies to all and I hope Loki will continue on topic with his great AAR.

[loki100]

thanks for the clarifications, its too easy to only partially pick up on aspects of the bombing/scoring system.

re the VPs, I'm just using them as a rough guide rather than basing my every move on their optimisation. Its fun in a PBEM situation trying to come up with patterns of strat bombing that hand out damage for low losses and of course part of the fun is those turns were it all goes very wrong.

We're a long way ahead in game (early 1944) and I've just had a turn of each back to back, in one smokindave walked into a trap set by a lot of P-47s looking to play and in the other ... still shudder to think about it [;)]

[loki100]

Turn 17: 30 October – 5 November 1943

My atttempt to push up the Italian coast to Salerno hit a small snag ... well quite a large one as its clear that smokindave does not agree to my plan



VP situation is becoming a small worry. Mainly as I've not (to this stage) really managed the bombing campaign that well with too many large single city raids. My hope is that I have also done some significant attrition to the Luftwaffe as his losses are increasing, especially around the Ruhr.



One reason for this optimism is the disappearance of the Luftwaffe from their bases at Foggia. I still wasn't sure about invading at Rome but decided to start hunting German planes in that sector and generally trying to reduce supply to the German units in the south.



The results weren't too bad. Bomber Command hit Essen with some effect, miss Emden completely and 8 Airforce hit the synthetic fuel plants on the outskirts of the Ruhr. I also manage to destroy another 80 planes on the ground (around Rome this time)



On the ground, I retake what I lost and secure another small airbase.

[Q-Ball]

The bad news is that you're going to have a very tough time forcing that southern line, or breaking out of the Salerno beachhead. The good news is that he has quite a few units on both approaches, too many IMO to also garrison the Rome area. I'd be curious where your LZs are, if they are more north (north of Civitavecchia), or more south (Anzio area). I would prefer north; too easy to get stuck on the terrain north of Anzio

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

The bad news is that you're going to have a very tough time forcing that southern line, or breaking out of the Salerno beachhead. The good news is that he has quite a few units on both approaches, too many IMO to also garrison the Rome area. I'd be curious where your LZs are, if they are more north (north of Civitavecchia), or more south (Anzio area). I would prefer north; too easy to get stuck on the terrain north of Anzio

They were to the north of the Tiber, agree its better terrain and if you can grab the Colline Romani you have excellent defensive terrain. Problem with Anzio is I think its too easy to block.

We're playing with the EF off, so I think he has enough to be a threat at Rome too.

In any case, as in the next post, I gave up on the idea. I feel I've never really had a clear plan in my head for the sequence of attacks (too used to the AI I fear) and that has come back to hit me ...

[loki100]

Turn 18: 6 – 12 November 1943

This turn coincided with 2 things. One was my bombing VP becoming a net -5 (-8 for U-boats, +3 for bombing) and the other was the wider debate on the forum about using multiple targets within each AD so as to generate more activity. Up to now, I've mostly been selecting single hex targets.

Here's a very early experiment, originally I was going to just bomb Kleeve (fuel and an easy target), so I adjusted the pattern to include Emmerich and Moers. In addition, Bomber Command did more direct raids in the Ruhr and at Emden.



Results were not that impressive (this was trying things out but indicated possible ideas). BC had one of its worst performances of the war at Emden, I think there were an awful lot of bemused cod wondering just what they had done to so offend Harris.


(a picture of the last cod off the coast of Germany ... clearly not at all happy)

Anyway, it was time to think again about Italy. My landing at Salerno has the advantage of pinning down a lot of German units but the disadvantage of regular damage to my taskforces. I have good aircover for an invasion north of Rome but can only land 5 divisions and the weather is getting no better.



So I decide to pull out, manage to extract the HQ and one division, the other maybe strong enough to survive on its own for one turn (esp with the TF in support).



By picking the wrong location, I've managed to dismantle my Italian strategy. I think I was right to have been cautious about Sicily (Meklore's AAR is a good indication of the risks of a weak Sicilian gambit by the Allies), but I clearly should have made Salerno a serious target (ie at least 2 invasion hexes).

Good warning about the difference between the AI (which probably would have pulled out of S Italy) and PBEM.

On the plus side, Italy is out the war, I have the requirements to avoid the first VP penalty, Corsica is a good base for 15 Air to bomb in southern Europe (as well as later for an invasion of either Italy or S France) and I've done a lot of damage to the Luftwaffe (somewhere around 1000 planes destroyed on the ground).

I think the core problem was I was never really confident in putting together the sequence of landings needed and too afraid of the results of a complete disaster.

So time to start plotting the war in Northern Europe and to keep smokindave unsure about my real plans in the Med.

[Q-Ball]

You learned a lesson the sequence of events in the Med, it seems. It's not easy to manage as Allies. In order to get a second landing in October, which is the last month for reliable weather, you need to be planning by turn 4 or 5 at the latest. It's not necessary to land large stacks in Italy, as long as you have follow-on troops right behind, but you need to get the initial invasion secured with ports and amphibs picked-up as soon as possible.

I am also playing smokingdave as WA, and I barely cleared Sardinian and Sicilian ports in time to pull the ampibs back on turn 4. I only prepped Div + Bde stacks, and landed just ahead of the mud north of Rome. It took until December slugging it out on that line until smokingdave finally pulled back toward the Gothic Line. He managed it very well, it was just a matter of timing.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

You learned a lesson the sequence of events in the Med, it seems. It's not easy to manage as Allies. In order to get a second landing in October, which is the last month for reliable weather, you need to be planning by turn 4 or 5 at the latest. It's not necessary to land large stacks in Italy, as long as you have follow-on troops right behind, but you need to get the initial invasion secured with ports and amphibs picked-up as soon as possible.

I am also playing smokingdave as WA, and I barely cleared Sardinian and Sicilian ports in time to pull the ampibs back on turn 4. I only prepped Div + Bde stacks, and landed just ahead of the mud north of Rome. It took until December slugging it out on that line until smokingdave finally pulled back toward the Gothic Line. He managed it very well, it was just a matter of timing.

I think this was the big decision I had to make. Despite some mistakes I could have made a decent landing and probably survived but it would have cost me both time and manpower. By abandoning Italy for now I'm not going to gain many city VP etc but I also minimise losses and it means my FB squadrons will be well rested for the main event in France

[loki100]

Turns 19-20: 13 – 26 November 1943

I'll run these two turns together, especially as T 19 was mostly quiet. 'Mostly Quiet' as in Douglas Adams' description of earth as 'mostly harmless'.

The calm was disturbed by smokindave making a real actual attack. Ok this was just the unit that I'd left at Salerno but even so.



The only air action was some more bombing of the Luftwaffe at Rome. The allied armies and airforces mostly depart the 'sunny med' for a return to the warm winter sunshine of the UK.



Next week (T20) the weather improved enough to allow some bombing action. Bomber Command went for Hamburg, 8 Air for the Ruhr. First goal of both raids was to inflict losses on the Luftwaffe and my fast improving escort capacity made this a painful week for the Germans.



BC did a decent enough job at Hamburg but 8 Air was less effective in the Ruhr.



VP situation is not too bad. If it wasn't for that routed British division I'd be breaking even. I'm now behind on the U-Boats but that reflects a few turns of either bad weather or selecting other targets.



Comments and rough plans.

Its interesting how one small mistake can have major knock on effects, I think this is one way in which WiTW plays very different to WiTE. In my case going for a one hex landing at Salerno (and then landing north not south of the river) completely dislocated the rest of my plans for Italy. I had to rotate out the TF, and in doing so lost one of my planned invasion hexes near Rome. In turn I didn't double/treble check which one I'd removed and found out later I'd managed to leave a gap in the centre of my landings.

My feeling is this was not fatal but would make any attempt to take Rome costly both in time and manpower.

Despite this, Italy is out the war and I have Sardinia and Corsica as bases for future operations.

My primary goal from now till May is to inflict losses on the Luftwaffe via a combination of escorted bombing raids (what I hit on the ground is a bonus not the real target), bombing detected bases (esp if they are German bombers) and doing fighter sweeps over the Netherlands (not only does this protect the strategic bombing campaign but it can inflict steady losses on the Germans).

The reason for this is to seriously weaken the ability of the Germans to interdict the supply routes for my planned landings. In turn that makes it more feasible to sustain multiple invasion sites (if I decide on that gamble).

I'm starting to re-organise my N European airforces for the next phase. 2 Tactical Air has three types of planes. Escorts (FB-F), mostly Spitfires, Ground attack aircraft (FB) all of which will have rockets (and are having the winter off to rest and build up their pools etc) and some shorter ranged LB squadrons (useful for the V-weapon campaign, hitting fixed transport assets and rail movement).

9 Air is being built up on a similar pattern but also has the advantage of a lot of P-47s. I've really come to appreciate this fighter as a means to cull the Luftwaffe. It appears in WiTE but in small numbers, at a time when the Luftwaffe is beaten anyway and you have the Yak-3 so it doesn't have such an impact. My intention basically is to try and use 9 Air for ground attacks where I can also tangle with the Luftwaffe.

Bomber Command has a core of Lancasters (of different types) and I'm sticking to night raids. In general I'm getting decent enough results and lower losses than 8 Air is taking by day. The Halifax III squadrons I'm using for day raids in France and the Low Countries (in effect the same set of missions as the LB squadrons in 2 Tactical Air).

8 Air is also split into two groups but the distinction of plane types is less clear cut. One group (built around the B-17s) is hitting Germany, from this stage forward usually as 2 clusters of missions per turn. The other is either going for transport targets or less well defended options in Germany.

15 Air is mostly still bombing in Italy (transport and airfields) with some raids into S Germany from Corsica. Med Tac Air is using its LB squadrons to hunt the Luftwaffe and its shorter range squadrons to squeeze supply to the German units in southern Italy.

[loki100]

T21: 27 November – 3 December 1943

VP situation from last turn is ok. I'm now going to ignore the U-Boats as I doubt I can do any damage that will make a difference. In fact from next turn, I make a start on the V-weapon sites on the Channel coast.

Overall, my low gain of city VP reflects lack of progress in Italy. On the other hand, I also have relatively low negative VP due to losses, so there is a trade off in that respect.



This turn I reverted back to hitting very specific targets. Basically these raids are a mixture of HI and named factories, especially for German tanks. My goal is to optimise the impact of the rocket armed FBs once I land in France by seeing if I can reduce the German capacity to replace losses in their Panzer Divisions.



Proved to be a brutal week for us both with all the raids by 8 Air and BC heavily contested.



Bomber Command had one of those weeks when it would have been better staying in bed. The only success for all that effort was to badly damage a Pz V factory in Duisburg. However, the Magdeburg raid was an experiment in very high altitude bombing just using the Liberators and Mosquitos without escorts. The limited losses were good, the lack of effect makes it not worth the effort.



8 Air delivered at Frankfurt and Kassel and 15 Air hit Steyr to effect.



In Italy, carried on bombing the Luftwaffe around Rome. Total number destroyed on the ground is now over 1,000 (up by 300 since T16).



I'm not sure how much a problem the aircrew losses for the Germans are (3441 to date) but my hope, drawn from my AI campaign, is that at some stage in mid-1944 the Luftwaffe will be reduced to little but an irritation.

[loki100]

Turn 22: 4 – 10 December 1943

VP situation from the previous turn reflected the payback for those very effective 8 Air raids at Frankfurt and Kassel. At this stage I am now ignoring the U-Boats, its not worth tangling with well defended targets when its unlikely to shift the results for good or bad.



Main thing this turn was another shift of tactical approach to the bombing campaign.

When I first started with WiTW I was setting relative wide areas (individual cities or groups of smaller targets) and gave that up in favour of specific targets on given hexes. From this turn on, following discussion on the main forum, I moved to a combination. Most of my raids are for an area with, hopefully, multiple missions per day but I still do some single hex raids.

I also mostly set the Lancasters to using heavier bombs rather than incendiaries [1]. Again, oddly I'd started out prioritising HI as that is the core to the WiTE/WiTW economic model. From now I'm going mostly for HI, selected named factories and of course the V-weapons. No reason not to start bombing them now so that some are already damaged by 1944.

For this turn, I'll do some more detail on the planning



So my goal is a very intensive assault on the Ruhr. The low altitude was an experiment, but the idea is to generate 3 missions a day over the 4 days.

Just to complete the Ruhr's misery, 8 Air Force is ordered there too with a similar multi-hex design. I want to make the Luftwaffe fight on my terms.

Overall losses were much less than I'd expected both strategic air groups took a lot of damaged planes but not too many destroyed. In combination they shot down 110 interceptors.



Don't think the low altitude helped that much for Bomber Command's accuracy. That pattern seemed pretty normal to me, but then neither did it seem to lead to heavier losses.



[1] – I also spent one of the bad weather turns clustering the Lancasters into 8 squadrons at a given air base. This makes it easier to shift payloads between incendiaries and other bombs so that some raids have a mixture, rather than doing so for individual units. In effect I can change the payload for all 'xx' at a given airbase and know this affects 7 squadrons.

[Seminole]

ORIGINAL: loki100

T21: 27 November – 3 December 1943

I'm now going to ignore the U-Boats as I doubt I can do any damage that will make a difference. In fact from next turn, I make a start on the V-weapon sites on the Channel coast.

My understanding was that a single point of damage renders a U-boat factory null for VP considerations. So the goal isn't to knock them out, but to give each of them a knock and keep them from being fully repaired.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Seminole

ORIGINAL: loki100

T21: 27 November – 3 December 1943

I'm now going to ignore the U-Boats as I doubt I can do any damage that will make a difference. In fact from next turn, I make a start on the V-weapon sites on the Channel coast.

My understanding was that a single point of damage renders a U-boat factory null for VP considerations. So the goal isn't to knock them out, but to give each of them a knock and keep them from being fully repaired.

aye, agree. Took me a while to realise that the VP mechanism was different for U-boats/V-weapons as opposed to the rest. I make that work to my advantage in 1944, we're in April and smokindave is getting a single V-weapon pt a turn. Here my specific logic was the undamaged U-boats were the ones at Danzig/Poznan etc and it really wasn't worth the losses that sort of raid would cause to maybe drop him from 8 pts per turn to 7.

[loki100]

Turns 23 – 24: 11-24 December 1943

I'll conflate these turns as the weather was so bad on T23 that nothing really happened apart from a single raid that wrecked the V-weapon launch site at Boulogne. The reward for my new bombing strategy on T22 was to gain 6 bombing VP (and I lost 8 for the U-boats).

T24 saw the arrival of snow so I set up two sets of raids on Germany, while other level bombers cleared out the V-weapons along the Channel coast.



The result was one of the worst weeks for losses yet. 8 Air was hammered over the Ruhr and the only reward was the level of German fighter losses.

In more detail, Bomber Command did a lot of damage around Mannheim (and delivered the 3 raids per day I'd ordered) while 8 Air did a lot of damage to the fuel production around the Ruhr. To the south, 15 Air hit the Pzr IV factories at Steyr again.



Total air losses for both sides were pretty dire:



VP situation is ok, looks like smokindave is taking advantage of my lack of progress in Italy to gain extra garrison points. U-Boats went to -10 but I've not really bothered to attack them consistently since the end of October (and these numbers relate to T23 when there was no strategic air attacks in any case).