Syria Civil War II

[Jagdtiger14]

Relax Lecivius: Make all the jokes about Florida you want, I'll laugh with you. With me you have to target Wisconsin since that's where I'm from originally (notice my avatar)...and besides, there is probably far more material to work with (I'm a cheese head). Actually I would be proud that Colorado has raised 100M in taxes from pot. You made it sound like Turkey would defeat Russia, so that was the direction of that comment.

Your information goes back to the cold war...35 years ago. Ok. You should know better that a lot has happened since Turkey was on the front line of the cold war...today they have an army of 77,000 professionals...not very impressive to me. Why would Russia have to occupy Turkey? They could destroy their military, set up the independent minded Kurds in the Kurdish areas (most of Anatolia)...perhaps assist the Kurdish area with a defensive force, and watch the rest of Turkey cry in their collective Raki. No going bankrupt (too much gold and other valuable commodities for that to happen...and plenty of buyers), Ostracized from the world...not any more than now, and they have their fans. No crippled military since most everything can be done at a distance. No war with the west since the west has been proven to be impudent (but yes, there is always risk)...but it takes a strong and willing leader to make the bullies back down...we don't have that at the moment.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

What is your fascination about the Bosporus and the Dardanelles? That's two or three times I've read you mentioning that. Why are the Russians supposed to force their way through? Don't assume your opponent will make bad decisions. The Russians have other navies, and I don't think the Black Sea fleet is all that anyway.

Ummm...because that's the only way practical way that Russia can supply, equip and reinforce their toehold in Syria? That's the way their ships are routing now and the only practical way that their existence in Syria can be supported. Other than an absurdly circuitous route through Iran, how else were you thinking of them getting men and material into theater?

Yes, if this civil war blows up to include larger nations, Iran will side with Russia. The back door will be open.

And if the Russians cheese off the Saudis and Turks enough, the front door will be closed. Witness their greater cooperation in supplying and equipping the rebels in Syria's north. While the US has vacillated, these two have filled much of the vacuum.

Retreating...well, lets see...USS Theodore Roosevelt has recently left the theater (replaced by the Chinese carrier (lets see if they launch any strikes...that would prove one of us wrong)).

Do you really believe that the USN will not be sending a replacement carrier group to the Med in short order? Really? Do you think that the departure of the Theodore Roosevelt was in response to Russia's build up in the area? That we're running from a Russian "carrier" group? I see no evidence of that.

I'm a betting man, Jagdtiger14. So let's put up some money. I'll bet you a bottle of your favorite beverage ($40 USD max) that the Chinese aircraft carrier leaves the area without launching a strike in Syria. You up for a little friendly wager?

If Turkey really wanted to do something vs Syria, why hav'nt they until now? Doing it now is provocative vs Russia, and I was responding to your suggestion they might want to take out the Russian bases. Not going to happen.

You mischaracterize my remarks. My remarks about a Turkish incursion into Syria were in response to your thoughts about Russia's recognition of a new Kurdish homeland in the area. Them's fightin' words for the Turks.

The Russians agitating for a breakaway section of an independent Kurdish state whilest at war in the neighboring country? That would be hugely provocative on the part of the Russians. It would be akin to them being in Mexico suppressing guerrillas and stumping for the "reconquista" of the Southwest United States.

Turkey could (would/ should?) respond to this provocation with force, if and when it comes. The Russians in Syria wouldn't be in a position to stop a full-throated Turkish attack. That such a blatant provocation hasn't yet occurred is fortunate.

Underestimating your opponent and over estimating your side...as you like to say: "good luck with that".

I too see weakness in some quarters in the West. But Russia and China aren't "all that and a bag of peanuts" either. Overestimating their capabilities in expeditionary warfare, political dirty tricks, subterfuge and staying power isn't helpful either. Putin=Superman? Absurd fanboi nonsense.

In a way, I'm going to appreciate watching the new Turk/Saudi/Kurd/Sunni coalition come together and solve at least one of their region's problems. When it inevitably gets bloody for the Russians, they won't be able to control the narrative any more. That's when it will start to get interesting.

[Chickenboy]

Oh. Right. There's these two news items that are germane to the conversation.

It seems that the Theodore Roosevelt is busy with war games in the Bay of Bengal. I suspect these had been planned for many moons and are a likely explanation for her departure from the Med. Love the title too. [:D]

http://www.voanews.com/content/india-us ... 02450.html

Also, I had thought that China's aircraft carrier wasn't ready for prime time yet. They only recently did the first carrier landing and are mostly using this vessel as a test bed for carrier naval air operations.

Some internet news spoof site (these whack-a-moles are everywhere) called DEBKAfile claimed EXCLUSIVE (yeah, right) information about the Liaoning passing through the Suez canal on the way there. The UK Defence Journal had this to say:

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/china-h ... -to-syria/

So, Jagdtiger14, I would like to repeat my offer for a bet. I reiterate that there will be no Chinese aircraft carrier strikes on Syrian soil this month or next. If I'm wrong, I'll put my money where my mouth is. Will you?

[Jagdtiger14]

Make a wager, huh? $40 USD max? Does that include delivery? Thanks for sharing the info on no carrier in Syria, and you are correct about those crazy sites especially Debka. At the moment the port in Syria where the carrier would dock is empty, and it hasn't been revealed where it currently is...could be off the coast of Syria, could be operating near the Spratley's? Those in the know have not reported anything...although I would think a Suez transit would be obvious to everyone...so I retract my previous statement that the Chinese carrier has made its appearance as was the talk of the web these past few days (I personally am not privy to top secret info and can not see for myself all the way from Miami Beach). Personally I think it would be a good move for the Chinese to make. The Chinese have warships operating in the Gulf of Aden (anti-piracy?)...and probably at least one of them has made its way to the Med. If the carrier does make its way to the Med, perhaps it might be transporting air assets to a Russian or Syrian base, where they will carry out strikes from there. My broader point is the Russian/Chinese alliance and possible cooperation in Syria. Would you like to make a bet that China launches strikes in Syria? Before you take that bet, check this out:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/610 ... ainst-ISIS

No, the Bosporus/Dardanelles is the MOST practical way (not ONLY way)...which by looking at a map is obvious. The Russians now have a base in Iraq. The Syrians still control most of Deir ez-Zor in eastern Syria and its airport, and have recently attacked and expanded in the area north and south against ISIS. The Syrian army is on the outskirts of Palmyra, and I wouldn't be surprised if they take the airport there soon. Then there is the Al-Tanf-Al-Walid (Iraq/Syria) crossing near to the Jordan border held by ISIS, along with the ISIS held towns of At Tenf and Jabal at Tenf all of which are isolated and tenuous. Taking these would create a land bridge from Iraq and the Russian base in Iraq to the Syrian air base at Sayqal. You may think an Iranian/Iraqi route is absurd for Russia, but Russia does not.

"The rebels in Syria's north"...well, the Kurds have an agreement or truce with the Syrian government...that's why there has been no fighting between them in Qamishli and Al-Hasakah. The new rebel alliance that includes the Kurds (YPG) I doubt will fight the Syrian Army and will probably only be aimed at ISIS. There is a report today that the Syrian Army together with its allies (thousands of Iranian troops plus Hezbollah) are getting ready for an offensive in Aleppo. This could be dis-information for an offensive elsewhere...but will be interesting to see what happens.

I didn't say the US carrier group was running from anything, but it was removed from the theater at a very curious time. Don't we have a permanent fleet based in the Med? Carriers are on rotation often, but why not make sure you have one in theater at all times? Did I say the carrier ran away because a Russian fleet appeared?...you should really stop setting up straw men Chickenboy. Retreat meant in a political and leadership way. A US carrier strike group could devastate anything in that area, but it requires leadership to use it correctly. I think this is all part of the US/West lack/vacuum of leadership.

And my response for Russia supporting the Kurds in Turkey if Turkey shoots down Russian aircraft. Russia/Putin tends to be very provocative...nothing new there.

Russia getting too close or violating Turkish airspace, Turkey shooting down Russian aircraft, Russia calling for a Kurdish state = Turkey invading Syria to get at the Russians? No. Russia testing Turkish resolve can only mean they are testing NATO resolve. Russia would like to see NATO go bye-bye. This has been their best chance so far. If everything devolves including the Turks foolishly deciding to go after the Russians in Turkey (which I do not think they are that stupid to do) then we have a possible WWIII scenario, and NATO (or anyone) is ill prepared at the moment for that. It will be "diplomacy" at all cost for the west unfortunately.

Unfortunately Putin is Superman compared to any leadership coming out of the west...its the west that has allowed him to become Superman. At one time the US was the leader of the free world. No more at least for now it appears. I'm not a fan of Putin, and I am certainly not a boi.

[Aurelian]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Oh. Right. There's these two news items that are germane to the conversation.

It seems that the Theodore Roosevelt is busy with war games in the Bay of Bengal. I suspect these had been planned for many moons and are a likely explanation for her departure from the Med. Love the title too. [:D]

http://www.voanews.com/content/india-us ... 02450.html

Also, I had thought that China's aircraft carrier wasn't ready for prime time yet. They only recently did the first carrier landing and are mostly using this vessel as a test bed for carrier naval air operations.

Some internet news spoof site (these whack-a-moles are everywhere) called DEBKAfile claimed EXCLUSIVE (yeah, right) information about the Liaoning passing through the Suez canal on the way there. The UK Defence Journal had this to say:

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/china-h ... -to-syria/

So, Jagdtiger14, I would like to repeat my offer for a bet. I reiterate that there will be no Chinese aircraft carrier strikes on Syrian soil this month or next. If I'm wrong, I'll put my money where my mouth is. Will you?

Yeah, I'm sure the USN is just shaking in their boots over a mobile ski jump that would need extensive ground support

[Orm]

Off Topic.

You mentioned Chinese anti-piracy mission in Aden, and that reminded me that three Chinese Navy ships recently visited Stockholm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atKQ29FFCcI

http://stockholmtoday.se/chinese-war-sh ... stockholm/

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Relax Lecivius: Make all the jokes about Florida you want, I'll laugh with you. With me you have to target Wisconsin since that's where I'm from originally (notice my avatar)...and besides, there is probably far more material to work with (I'm a cheese head). Actually I would be proud that Colorado has raised 100M in taxes from pot. You made it sound like Turkey would defeat Russia, so that was the direction of that comment.

Your information goes back to the cold war...35 years ago. Ok. You should know better that a lot has happened since Turkey was on the front line of the cold war...today they have an army of 77,000 professionals...not very impressive to me. Why would Russia have to occupy Turkey? They could destroy their military, set up the independent minded Kurds in the Kurdish areas (most of Anatolia)...perhaps assist the Kurdish area with a defensive force, and watch the rest of Turkey cry in their collective Raki. No going bankrupt (too much gold and other valuable commodities for that to happen...and plenty of buyers), Ostracized from the world...not any more than now, and they have their fans. No crippled military since most everything can be done at a distance. No war with the west since the west has been proven to be impudent (but yes, there is always risk)...but it takes a strong and willing leader to make the bullies back down...we don't have that at the moment.

Screw U. Your the one who mentioned Colorado pot in an inane attempt to discredit my opinion & slander my character.

My personal, on hand, feet on the ground experience is Turkey would not be a walkover. Your gamers opinion, made from the comfort of your PC looking at stats, is that Russia would give Turkey "give them a good whipping and dismemberment". You will have to excuse me if I look back on recent American History to know what a soldier from 35 years ago thinks of THAT opinion.

Your the one who, rather improperly, stated "Russia need not amphibious invade Turkey...Russia's ally Iran shares a border. ". That's occupation. If your talking about aerial interdiction, you better go get a map. And learn to read it.

"Today, Russia and China are back together.". That's insane. China is shopping for resources. Period. The thought that China's group in the med is there to reinforce Russia is mind boggling. They are looking at Africa, not the Middle East, and are projecting in that direction.

Your description of the Russian army "about 500,000 including paratroopers" may or may not be accurate. Who cares. A trained and motivated Russian soldier is someone to be respected. Most Russian soldiers, however, are not. The Turkish army is second only to the Russian army. Again, a lot of conscripts, but they will be fighting on their home ground. The Red Army never tried to take on the Turks at the height of their power, when they were FAR more powerful than the Russian army of today.

You pontificate a lot. You have zero experience, little real knowledge, and damn all little character. Fortunately, there is this little green button. The best web tool ever. So I don't have to be the little kid on the fighting on internet.

[Orm]

Be nice, please. [:(]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
so I retract my previous statement that the Chinese carrier has made its appearance as was the talk of the web these past few days

No bet. [;)] China may, in the indeterminate future, elect to get involved in Syria. They are seemingly identifying ways to show (at no cost to themselves) alignment with Russia. They've yet to put their money where their mouth is. I don't know if they will. Flying the flag with Russia (for Russia) seems to mollify the Russians for now, so that's probably all they'll do.

But the supposition that the Chinese were going to start launching anti-ISIS/FSA strikes from their carrier in the Med was clearly premature. That was the bet I was trying to solicit. Not what they'll do 6 months or a year down the road.

I found this to be an interesting and even-handed review of the modern Russian army: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/motherl ... ederation/

As befits so much of Russia, the Red Army is a study in contrasts. An amalgam of Soviet dogma, class struggle, corruption, furtive modernization efforts and clinging tendrils of history.

[Erik Rutins]

Keep it civil please, or we'll have to lock this one up.

Regards,

- Erik

[Aurelian]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I found this to be an interesting and even-handed review of the modern Russian army: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/motherl ... ederation/

Good read.

[CarnageINC]

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Keep it civil please, or we'll have to lock this one up.

Regards,

- Erik

I for one, wish you would. Opinionated 'experts' desiring to giving their opinions on political/military matters on a gaming forum, for what end??? X military is better then Y military for Z reasoning...[8|]

[operating]

Some may not agree with previous posts in this thread, there's always apposing position to any position it does not make a difference if the thread actually has beneficial information for the greater good. If you do not like it, then don't read it and move on, instead of being a stain or whatever. The discussion here very well could be the nexus for a ME game development, that involves all aspects of the discussion to consider, aside from any particular perspective. I'm pretty darn sure game developers have similar discussions that go on here. Yes, I like to see the conversation stay civil and keep with valid content, let's face it: Nobody is perfect folks (can't wait for the comments on this.[:D]). I don't know about other members, I learn something new just about everyday here, be it educational or "just for the fun of it stuff". There's plenty of non-game related posting.[;)]

[rhondabrwn]

ORIGINAL: operating

Some may not agree with previous posts in this thread, there's always apposing position to any position it does not make a difference if the thread actually has beneficial information for the greater good. If you do not like it, then don't read it and move on, instead of being a stain or whatever. The discussion here very well could be the nexus for a ME game development, that involves all aspects of the discussion to consider, aside from any particular perspective. I'm pretty darn sure game developers have similar discussions that go on here. Yes, I like to see the conversation stay civil and keep with valid content, let's face it: Nobody is perfect folks (can't wait for the comments on this.[:D]). I don't know about other members, I learn something new just about everyday here, be it educational or "just for the fun of it stuff". There's plenty of non-game related posting.[;)]

Agreed... this thread has been very informative and I would hate to see a brief temper flare result in a "lock up". Lighten up a bit on the disagreements guys [:-]

[Jagdtiger14]

Now the Cubans are in Syria:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/14 ... y-sources/

Would it be conspiratorial to ask if taking Cuba off the list of state sponsors of terrorism has anything to do with them going into Syria?

More and more things seem to be adding up between US actions and the actions of the Russian alliance...is it coincidence? My thinking is that it isn't.

Are Cubans really more experienced operating Russian tanks than Russians? I'm sure the Russians would rather Cubans die is my guess.

[operating]

Yes, there have been other hints this past week in the news that Cuba is joining the fight. I would not be surprised that if Venezuela decides to send "advisors" to gain experience on how wars are fought in the ME. After all Venezuela is chafing with it's neighbors for what could be a fight of it's own over recently discovered oil deposits. Maybe others countries are getting prepared to join the Russian Coalition in Syria....

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
I question western leadership and their collective stomach to get involved.

Have to agree, this is another "red line" issue. If Obama doesn't lead NATO into battle, no other NATO member will lift a finger militarily even if another member is invaded. Like it or not the NATO alliance has devolved into a US and its minor allies alliance. No other NATO member but the US has the strength and capabilities to take on Putin and Putin knows it.

Putin fears no one except the US on a military standpoint, and for years that fear has held him in check. He no longer fears the US and his current actions prove it. I would expect to see many new moves by Putin into the Middle East before the next election (leased naval and air base from Iran on the Persian Gulf, land forces in Iraq, return to Afghanistan if the US leaves, etc.). If he can get his toe in the door before a new administration then the US will be seen as the aggressor if it makes moves to try and expel him later.

Jim

[Jagdtiger14]

Burns, I completely agree! I've been mentioning that Putin, et al...have about 15 months left to do their dirty work (third week of January 2017), then it depends on who the next President is if that 15 months is expanded into another 4 years or not.

It's better to be feared than loved. Peace is a great thing, but you can only have it if you are strong...and willing to use that strength.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Jim D Burns

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14
I question western leadership and their collective stomach to get involved.

Have to agree, this is another "red line" issue. If Obama doesn't lead NATO into battle, no other NATO member will lift a finger militarily even if another member is invaded. Like it or not the NATO alliance has devolved into a US and its minor allies alliance. No other NATO member but the US has the strength and capabilities to take on Putin and Putin knows it.

Putin fears no one except the US on a military standpoint....

Jim

warspite1

You make it sound like this is a recent development which seems a little strange. This has always been the case. Take NATO, remove the US, and what do you have?

Do you think that any nation is going to undertake serious military action (home soil + possessions excepted) without the full agreement of the US? Remember Suez.

[operating]

Ya, now you are showing your age![:D] That was joint effort by both Great Brittan and France to take back the Suez Canal until the USA pulled the rug from under the whole deal IIRC. My third grade class had quill pens then.[:)]