Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

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obvert
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

Moral of story (so to speak):

Counter "stratosphere" sweeps with layered CAP at altitudes where your planes have good maneuverability, it works. [8D]

Maybe. [;)]

That I feel is too quickly decided and there is a lot more to learn about why/how results are different at different altitudes.

It definitely seems layering is key. It so far appears that lower layering is better. I have yet to try the 20k range, but lets remember that for the Ki-84r the maneuver is the same (27) from <10k to 31k, another reason I chose this airframe to begin tests. See below.

So if we're just talking about layered CAP at best maneuver, then test 3 with 31k, 28k, 26k should work out to give similar results to 9k, 7k, 5k. Yet it is very different! [:)]

One test I'll do soon is to modify this airframe in the editor to have climb or about 3,200, or close to the George/Jack/Tojo territory. I think the climb could be a big factor.

Other factors; Time to Target, speed differential, radar vs no radar, percentage CAP setting, durability, armor, pilots EXP, pilot air skill, pilot def skill.

Anything else?

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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by tiemanjw »

Random guessing here... but with a time to alert in the 10 or so minutes range, is it possible that the 30ish k altitude ones are climbing to meet the sweepers at 42k (or above their max maneuver), but the 10ish k ones don't have the time (and thus meet while still in max maneuver territory)?
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

Random guessing here... but with a time to alert in the 10 or so minutes range, is it possible that the 30ish k altitude ones are climbing to meet the sweepers at 42k (or above their max maneuver), but the 10ish k ones don't have the time (and thus meet while still in max maneuver territory)?

Here is a CR from one of the high layered CAP tests.

The initial sweep seems to be met at the set altitudes (no indication of scrambling fighters between --- and ---)

The two later intercepts both show the groups attempting to scramble to above the 31k band. I guess there is no sure fire method of knowing whether they make it.

I can do several things to isolate elements on this test though. (Lokasenna gave a great suggestion to isolate group's planes to see which band ends up fighting, and wining or losing, but if there are any more suggestions, keep em comin!)

1. I could change the Ki-84r to maneuver 27 at all bands to see if this changes the results.

2. I could change the Ki-84 to restrict high altitude to below 31k, or even to 20k, or to 10k, and see if those make a difference in outcomes.

3. I could change climb rates to 3,200, or even higher, to see if more planes make it up there and how that affects results.
[font="Trebuchet MS"]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Aug 18, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Lae , at 99,126

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 27 NM, estimated altitude 43,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 69

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 5 destroyed

CAP engaged:
10th Sentai with Ki-84r Frank (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 26000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 15 minutes
1000th Sentai with Ki-84r Frank (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes
100th Sentai with Ki-84r Frank (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 28000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Lae , at 99,126

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 43 NM, estimated altitude 45,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 48

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 7 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet

CAP engaged:
1000th Sentai with Ki-84r Frank (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
15 plane(s) not yet engaged, 7 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 27000 and 31498.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 13 minutes
100th Sentai with Ki-84r Frank (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
9 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 1 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 28000 , scrambling fighters between 27000 and 31498.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 31 minutes
10th Sentai with Ki-84r Frank (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 26000 , scrambling fighters between 28000 and 32000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 51 minutes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Lae , at 99,126

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 68 NM, estimated altitude 46,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-84r Frank x 21

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet

CAP engaged:
1000th Sentai with Ki-84r Frank (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
9 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 27000 and 34450.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 30 minutes
100th Sentai with Ki-84r Frank (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 28000 , scrambling fighters between 28000 and 32996.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 39 minutes
10th Sentai with Ki-84r Frank (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 26000 , scrambling fighters between 27000 and 31000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes

[/font]
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by Lokasenna »

You should also pay attention to the time for all group planes to reach interception. That is going to affect the results.
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

You should also pay attention to the time for all group planes to reach interception. That is going to affect the results.

There are times to intercept for ALL planes, and I've tried so far to look for patterns, but that info doesn't seem to correlate strongly with changes in losses over the run of tests. I'll keep looking of course, and I do think the time to intercept is important, but maybe not the note on the time for all planes to intercept. We might have to get at it another way.

What if I put climb at 0 and CAP% to 100? Would planes stay on their band and not leave, or would they not fly at all?
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by tiemanjw »

ORIGINAL: obvert
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

You should also pay attention to the time for all group planes to reach interception. That is going to affect the results.

There are times to intercept for ALL planes, and I've tried so far to look for patterns, but that info doesn't seem to correlate strongly with changes in losses over the run of tests. I'll keep looking of course, and I do think the time to intercept is important, but maybe not the note on the time for all planes to intercept. We might have to get at it another way.

What if I put climb at 0 and CAP% to 100? Would planes stay on their band and not leave, or would they not fly at all?

I honestly don't know... but from what we are told, 1/3 of the CAP is up. I would guess we would see 1/3 the A/C with no more getting involved. It would be interesting, but I'm not sure it would mean anything.
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by obvert »

For this version I kept the CAP setting layered high but changed the Ki-84r to 27 maneuver at 31k+ to see if planes climbing to the next maneuver band (which was 21) was an issue.

Apparently this wasn't a huge factor, although it does have some affect over the ten tests. The number are slightly better to the high layered CAP with stock Ki-84r, but not anywhere near the success of the low CAP layered 9k, 7k, 5k.


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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

ORIGINAL: obvert
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

You should also pay attention to the time for all group planes to reach interception. That is going to affect the results.

There are times to intercept for ALL planes, and I've tried so far to look for patterns, but that info doesn't seem to correlate strongly with changes in losses over the run of tests. I'll keep looking of course, and I do think the time to intercept is important, but maybe not the note on the time for all planes to intercept. We might have to get at it another way.

What if I put climb at 0 and CAP% to 100? Would planes stay on their band and not leave, or would they not fly at all?

I honestly don't know... but from what we are told, 1/3 of the CAP is up. I would guess we would see 1/3 the A/C with no more getting involved. It would be interesting, but I'm not sure it would mean anything.

We are told this, but is it actually true/does it matter? The lines from obvert's posted combat report would seem to bear it out for the initial combat only (21 planes not yet engaged, 48 on standby for a total of 69 out of 135 planes, which is pretty much 50% of the total group size). Note that after the first sweep, no planes are on standby and all are up in the air ("not yet engaged" and "being recalled").

If you pays attention to what the combat report tells you, you can get a lot of information to make decisions without the need to test what the report is already telling you.
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

ORIGINAL: obvert



There are times to intercept for ALL planes, and I've tried so far to look for patterns, but that info doesn't seem to correlate strongly with changes in losses over the run of tests. I'll keep looking of course, and I do think the time to intercept is important, but maybe not the note on the time for all planes to intercept. We might have to get at it another way.

What if I put climb at 0 and CAP% to 100? Would planes stay on their band and not leave, or would they not fly at all?

I honestly don't know... but from what we are told, 1/3 of the CAP is up. I would guess we would see 1/3 the A/C with no more getting involved. It would be interesting, but I'm not sure it would mean anything.

We are told this, but is it actually true/does it matter? The lines from obvert's posted combat report would seem to bear it out for the initial combat only (21 planes not yet engaged, 48 on standby for a total of 69 out of 135 planes, which is pretty much 50% of the total group size). Note that after the first sweep, no planes are on standby and all are up in the air ("not yet engaged" and "being recalled").

If you pays attention to what the combat report tells you, you can get a lot of information to make decisions without the need to test what the report is already telling you.

It's always good to try and confirm things, no? There are some mysteries about what altitude planes are at between these ranges that the CR does not tell us, and it doesn't say whether all of those planes scrambling, not yet engaged or being recalled actually made it into combat or not.
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

ORIGINAL: obvert
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

You should also pay attention to the time for all group planes to reach interception. That is going to affect the results.

There are times to intercept for ALL planes, and I've tried so far to look for patterns, but that info doesn't seem to correlate strongly with changes in losses over the run of tests. I'll keep looking of course, and I do think the time to intercept is important, but maybe not the note on the time for all planes to intercept. We might have to get at it another way.

What if I put climb at 0 and CAP% to 100? Would planes stay on their band and not leave, or would they not fly at all?

I honestly don't know... but from what we are told, 1/3 of the CAP is up. I would guess we would see 1/3 the A/C with no more getting involved. It would be interesting, but I'm not sure it would mean anything.

Definitely not the case. Without having to dig up other reports, just scroll up to obvert's posted report. The very first report does show that only 1/3 of the CAP is in the air initially, but for the subsequent battles all of the planes up to the set amount (which he put at 50%) are up in the air.

ORIGINAL: obvert

It's always good to try and confirm things, no? There are some mysteries about what altitude planes are at between these ranges that the CR does not tell us, and it doesn't say whether all of those planes scrambling, not yet engaged or being recalled actually made it into combat or not.

I don't mean to suggest that there isn't value in getting data, just that there's no point in collecting data that's already shown in some way in the combat report.

We can't and will never know what altitude the planes are actually fighting at because the game in no way tells us.

If you pay careful attention (and I mean CAREFUL ATTENTION) to the combat animation, you can tell how many planes actually made it into the combat. The summary numbers shown on the main screen (in the black box that says something like "CAP defending | 123x F6F-3 Hellcat | 24x FM-2 Wildcat" etc.) are always going to be the same as the summary numbers shown in the combat report (your Ki-84r Frank x69 line, for example). But if you run the animation slowly enough, you can count how many planes actually take part in the fight. There will be the initial number (say, 14) and then a message will go by saying "14x Ki-84r Frank join combat" or something similar, and you'll see ones for disengagement as well ("spins away on fire", "heads for cloud cover", "dives for the deck", etc.). Count all those up, both the additions and subtractions, and you'll know how many planes participated in the fight. Tedious, but you can do it.

What should be done, at least if I were doing the test (and I'm too lazy/busy to do so; you can do yours however you like but I'm still going to provide my $0.02), is a look at the results and factor in:
1) Unit settings
2) Information from the CR (planes actually in on CAP, scramble altitudes, time to target, time to intercept, etc.)
3) Final numbers

Run that for a sufficient number of times and look at trends. By sufficient number of times, I'm talking about at least 50 here. 100 would be better. Remember that each successive iteration "costs" you less in terms of time/effort because you're simply doing another run of the same setup.

Also remember that if you are running this in a game save file where one of the sides is set as the computer, you can run the same game date over and over without actually changing any of the orders and get different results in the combat replay - it is not identical like it would be in PBEM.
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by obvert »

Thanks. I run it all head to head to have access to both sides all of the time. No toher way to count numbers precisely. Each run all I have to do is put another extra group anywhere on 10% CAP and that is enough of a change that the entire day is different, even up to the weather.

I've now got ten saves of pre-combat though too on different dates so can choose to make sure I get a random sampling of weather and it goes quickly.

1. Unit settings

This is what I'm working with primarily. I think a lot is there to be learned, and already I'm getting some great chunks of data.

2. CR info

Very hard to use as it's complex but not precise. Some lines like time to target I can easily track, but time to intercept are both very hard to log for each combat (multiple pieces of the combat, actually), and correlate with losses from those pieces (not shown anywhere and would have to be counted in replay animation). So far I don't see the need to do that, but if someone, or me possibly, finds an actual correlation in the data with time to intercept and results, I could try it later on after getting more simple tests out of the way.

3. Final numbers

I think you mean losses for each test? Not sure.

I'm not sure running the tests 100 times would change results much. I will test the test soon by doing ten more of one interesting setup, probably layered low CAP, to see if it's within a few losses one way or another to the first one. If not then I need to think about doing larger sets. If it's +/- 5 over the ten runs, why bother?

I'm more interested to getting into some actual game relevant situations soon, using multiple airframes and playing with settings after getting far enough to develop a hypothesis. See if I can predict outcomes. [;)]
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by Lowpe »

1. Unit settings

This is what I'm working with primarily. I think a lot is there to be learned, and already I'm getting some great chunks of data.


I agree, and think most everyone has is a slight understanding of the unit settings. The most important question you need to answer is what are defending against?

A one time naval strike aimed at a refinery/oil?

Wave after wave of 4e Bombers?

Sweeps?

2E bombers?

Combinations of the above?

Night Bombing?

Protecting ships?

Protecting carriers?

SR relationship to percentage on CAP?

AV support relationship to percentage on CAP?

Effects of range with your defensive goal?

etc, etc.

Bless you Obvert, the mind simply reels at all the possible permutations.

Instead of comparing the Frank r to the Jugs, I think you should use the commonly available mid 43 IJA planes to come up with a formula for countering early Jugs sweeps...just my thoughts. Or even a 42 tactic for countering Lightning sweeps.



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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Or even a 42 tactic for countering Lightning sweeps.

There's only one real option here, so it's an easy answer:

Nicks in tandem with something else.
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Or even a 42 tactic for countering Lightning sweeps.

There's only one real option here, so it's an easy answer:

Nicks in tandem with something else.

That is certainly conventional wisdom, however I have used Oscars & Zeroes and done very well against them. However,it was with an altitude HR and PDU off.






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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

1. Unit settings

This is what I'm working with primarily. I think a lot is there to be learned, and already I'm getting some great chunks of data.


I agree, and think most everyone has is a slight understanding of the unit settings. The most important question you need to answer is what are defending against?

A one time naval strike aimed at a refinery/oil?

Wave after wave of 4e Bombers?

Sweeps?

2E bombers?

Combinations of the above?

Night Bombing?

Protecting ships?

Protecting carriers?

SR relationship to percentage on CAP?

AV support relationship to percentage on CAP?

Effects of range with your defensive goal?

etc, etc.

Bless you Obvert, the mind simply reels at all the possible permutations.

Instead of comparing the Frank r to the Jugs, I think you should use the commonly available mid 43 IJA planes to come up with a formula for countering early Jugs sweeps...just my thoughts. Or even a 42 tactic for countering Lightning sweeps.

I will definitely get to some of these other situations, but those could be interpreted form results based on how certain settings perform and what the player predicts from their opponent.

I'll definitely get to other airframes, but wanted something with real teeth first, and the benefit of the same maneuver rating right up to 31k.

This i not a test for Japanese players though, and soon I'll be trying to put low CAP settings into effect with early war Allied defenders to see if the tactic works there too. Similar situation, the Buffalo vs the A6M2. [;)]
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Or even a 42 tactic for countering Lightning sweeps.

There's only one real option here, so it's an easy answer:

Nicks in tandem with something else.

Here I'm more interested in how to improve the P-38 sweeps in 43-44. [:D]
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by obvert »

Ok. Another set from a mid altitude CAP layered with 20k, 18k, 16k. This is to test whether the layering works better in the middle altitudes than it does up high at 31k, and if it's as good here as it is low <10k.

Results were among the worst for Ki-84 CAP losses while losses of P-47s remained about the same as in the high CAP test.

I also added in a column for number of planes intercepting as shown when sweeps commence (the black box text that flashes up in the replay).

With 50% CAP set and 135 airframes available, the CAP was consistent at 69 airframes intercepting according to this message. This is ~51% of available airframes on CAP, apparently or almost exactly what was set by percentage.

Interestingly, in every CR the CAP is already attempting to climb with the first sweep, which is different than what happens in a low layered CAP where the first sweep includes no "scrambling to ..." messages.


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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by Yaab »

I think Ki-84b Frank is at disadvantage against P-47 as it is equppied with two MGs and two cannons. Aren't cannons, with their slow rate of fire, only good against bombers? I would try a test with P-47 sweeping against the last Tojo which is armed with 4 MGs. Both aircraft arrive in 3/44.
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: obvert

This i not a test for Japanese players though, and soon I'll be trying to put low CAP settings into effect with early war Allied defenders to see if the tactic works there too. Similar situation, the Buffalo vs the A6M2. [;)]

Excellent!

However, here you will find the pilot skill & experience delta really puts the Buffalo behind.

However, get some decent pilots in them and you will be very surprised with the results.
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RE: Low CAP vs High SWEEPS test #1

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Or even a 42 tactic for countering Lightning sweeps.

There's only one real option here, so it's an easy answer:

Nicks in tandem with something else.

Here I'm more interested in how to improve the P-38 sweeps in 43-44. [:D]

My best use for Lightning sweeps, albeit in 1945, was to perform LRCAP over the Thunderbolt/Mustang sweeps.
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