IN-COW Leaked Report on WW II.

[rkr1958]

Axis #7.

Weather.
1. The roll is an 8 but because of the +2 modified it becomes (another) 10! The awful, awful weather continues to the dismay of the axis and the absolute joy of the allies.

Arctic. Storms. (Poland)
North Temperate. Storms. (Poland, Western Front, Northern/Central China.)
Med. Rain.
North Monsoon. Storms. (Central/Southern China.)
South Monsoon. Rain.
South Temperate. Fair.

Weather roll modifier +2, impulses advance by 2.

Actions.
2. German & Japan - land. Italy (neutral) - combined. With this being the 7th impulse of the turn there's a 10% chance of the turn ending. Given the way the weather rolls have gone both Germany and Japan don't want to risk the turn ending without having the opportunity to fully move and rail their land forces at least one more time before this turn ends.

Italy.
3. Italy uses their one naval move to transports Graziani (arm HQ) to the East Med. They then use 1 of their 2 land moves to disembark him to Bardia, Libya.

Germany.
4. German units surround Warsaw and have enough firepower in place, even in storms, to get a +14.278A odds. These odds require HQ support from von Leeb and attack support from the German 1st engineer combat division. So the calculations at these odds are, 94.8% chance of capturing Warsaw and a 17.6% chance of losing the 1st engineer division.
5. Now Germany could wait and hope that the turn continues and the weather turns better. There's a 63% chance, which is far from sure, that Germany will get at least one more impulse this turn. But even if they do, there's no guarantee that the weather will be much better.
6. In the end, Germany decides to risk the 1st engineer division (17.6%) and make the almost sure attack on Poland (94.8%). There's nothing like rolling high to alleviate all worries. The Germans roll a 17, which when added to 14 gives them a 31. Warsaw, and hence Poland, falls without loss (i.e., German loss). For completeness sake it should be noted that the Germans missed their factional odds roll for this attack (i.e., 27.8% chance of attacks at +15 instead of +14).

Japan.
7. Japan continues to shuffle units around in China. However, with the horrid weather then just couldn't get any odds worth taking the risk even this late in the turn.

End of Turn Check.
8. As luck would have it, this turn ends on a roll of 1 against a 10% chance that it would end. What a strange first turn. The axis get three impulses and the allies only get two and the weather was the worst possible for the last two of the three impulse pairs. Note that the weather is scripted for the first impulse pair, otherwise I have no doubt that it would have been the worse too.
9. In the West, the horrible weather stymied the Germans. The only up side is that the BEF is still on transports in the North Sea and will return to England. Well, for the Germans, I guess that's a upside as I have no doubt that they'll (i.e., the BEF) will resume their force in being role in the North Sea next turn.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Destroyed Pool.

Poland definitely took it on the chin, but no one else did. Germany, however, is fortunate not to have lost their engineer division. There was a 25% chance that Germany would have lost this division given the two non-automatic attacks it participate in and to which it lent its combat engineer support.

The two Polish air units and their pilots were lost because they were disorganized after their mission and were overrun when Warsaw fell.

All in all, not a bad turn for the Germans given the weather.

[rkr1958]

End of turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Poland. Baltic States.

Germany.

1. All objectives with respect to Poland were accomplished and without any units lost.

USSR.

1. Successfully claimed Eastern Poland, though at the cost of 1 chit removed from the US Germany/Italy pool.

2. Successfully claimed the Baltic States, again at the cost of 1 chit removed form the US Germany/Italy pool, leaving that pool empty.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. The Western Front.

Nobody accomplished any of their objectives on this front. Well, I guess that's not true. With the help of Mother Nature, only, the Germans are prevented from invading Denmark and Holland.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Libya.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. East Africa.

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End of Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Japan. Korea. Manchuria.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Northern and Central China.

Japan. Army Group Central China, Commanded By General Terauchi.

Terauchi failed to secure to factory the only resource point for which he was immediately responsible. That is, ChiComm partisans seize Haichow and prevent the RP there from flowing to a Japanese factory. On receipt of this bad news, General Terauchi flew directly to Tokyo to personally apologize to the Emperor for his failure. While the Emperor was most forgiving, Japan's ranking military leaders weren't. They warned Terauchi that there was no room for any more failures like this in the future or he might find himself replaced, demoted and discrased.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Central and Southern China.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Production. Oil. Builds.

Production & Oil (See table below).

Interesting, the allied powers, which include the neutral USSR and USA, out produced the axis powers by 34.5% (10 BPs) and have almost double the oil saved that the axis do.

By the way, BP +/- and Oil +/- is the delta in BPs and Oil from the previous turn. Since there was no previous turn those values aren't applicable for turn 1.

Axis Builds

Germany(16 BPs): Sub 2nd(1), Pilot(2), FTR(3), Arm HQ(8), Mil(2)

Italy(3 BPs): CP, Sub 2nd(1), BP Save.

Japan(10 BPs): Synth Oil(8), Mil(2)

Allied Builds

China(4 BPs): Mil(2), Cav(2)

CW(11 BPs): Mil(2), Pilot(2), FTR(2), CVP(0), TRS 1st(2), CP(1) x 2, CA Repair(1)

France(5 BPs): Mil(2) x 2, BP Save

USA(11 BPs): CV Repair(2), CV 1st(2), Pilot(2), CVP(1), Terr(2), TRS 1st(2)

USSR(8 BPs): Ski Div(2), Inf(3) x 2

[rkr1958]

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939.

Reinforcements.

1. Germany. MIL(Lipzieg), SS Inf corps, armor division, A/T division, FTR2.
2. Italy. LND3, mot corps.
3. Japan. MIL(Tokyo).
4. CW. MIL(Rangoon), CVP, BB, CP.
5. France. MIL(Bordeaux), MIL(Marseilles).
6. USA. CA Houston, Terr(Philippines).
7. ChiComm. MIL(Sian).

Planes/Pilots moved to reserve.
1. France. CVP from CV Bern.

Initiative.

Axis = 8 + 1 = 9. Allies = 10 + 0 = 10. Axis decline to re-roll. Allies elect to move second.

It was a bit of a risk for the allies electing to move second having minimal forces in the North Sea; however, in the end decide that moving first in Nov/Dec 1939 was much less important than moving first during possible critical turns in 1940 - 1942.

For the first impulse of this turn, CW planners estimated the chance of a successful German invasion of Holland; i.e., one were Germany captured both Rotterdam and Amsterdam on the surprise impulse, at ~25%. A successful invasion first requires favorable weather conditions (i.e., rain or fine) for the amphibious invasion(s) (SCS w/divisions) necessary to ensure the capture of Rotterdam and Amsterdam. The odds for favorable weather conditions was 30%. Next, it requires that the SCS w/divisions slip past the RN and French navies patrolling the North Sea (3 box and lower). The odds for this were estimated to be 80% in rain and 70% in fine.

These same planners estimated the chance of a successful German invasion of Denmark; i.e., one that gained control of Copenhagen and of all land hexes bordering the North Sea, for the coming initial impulse at 40%. This 40% was mutually exclusive of the 25% estimated for Holland. While the conditions for a successful invasion of Denmark were fine or snow (50%), and overlaps with the fine or rain required for Holland, it was estimated that if the weather was fine that the Germans were opt for the Holland invasion over Denmark. So CW planners put it at 65% that the Germans will successfully invaded Denmark or Holland, but not both, on the first impulse.

[rkr1958]

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #1.

Objectives.

The start of the turn is a good time to review objectives, both near-term (i.e., this turn) and longer-term (i.e., later than this turn). Being that this is the axis impulse we'll start with them and save discussion of the allied objectives for their impulse.

Japan.
1. Capture Tungkwan.
2. "Liberate" Haichow.
3. Reinforce Kiungchow.
4. Capture Sian and it's RP.
5. Capture RP[86,142].
6. Reduce Chinese production by 2 RPs per turn through strategic bombing.
7. Maintain the security or all RPs to factories in the occupied territories (i.e., Manchuria, Korea, China).
8. Maintain deterrence against Soviet Invasion of any Japanese held territories, especially Manchuria and Korea.

Germany.
1. Capture Denmark completely on the surprise impulse.
2. Capture Holland completely on the surprise impulse.
3. Transfer land and air forces from Poland to the Western Front.
4. Maintain Nazi-Soviet pact garrison levels.
5. Provide for the security of Poland (i.e., against partisans).

Italy.
1. Maintain force in being on the French border.
2. Continue the buildup of Army Group Africa in Libya (led by Graziania, armor HQ) on the Libyan/Egyptian border.
3. Maintain a low, non-provocative, naval profile in the Med.

The objectives will (should) be the focus of their respective axis powers that guide their actions this impulse. Of course, the allies powers will try to have something to say about all this, having their own set of objectives.

Weather. Roll = 7 + 2 = 9 (+2,3)
Arctic - blizzard.
North Temperate - snow.
Med - storms.
North Monsoon - fine.
South Monsoon - storms.
South Temperate - fine.

DOW.
1. Germany DOW's Denmark, 1 chit added to the US Germany/Italy entry pool.

Actions. Germany - land, Japan - land, Italy (neutral) - combine.

Naval.
1. Italy TRS in Bardia, Libya moves to the 1-box in the Italian Coast and loads an Italian mech corps from La Spezia.

Strategic Bombing.
1. Though Japan really wanted to bomb Chinese factories, they allocated both of their air missions to ground strikes. So no strat missions by any axis power this impulse.

Ground Strikes.
1. Japan. 2 factors, halved, vs 1 unit in Lanchow, which failed. Going forward we will use the following short notion,
Japan. 2(1) vs 1 (Lanchow), 0/1. Failed.
2. Japan. 3(1.5) vs 1 ([84,148], OOS cavlary), 0/1. Failed.

Notable Rails.
1. Germany. Eng Div, Arty Div, Inf corps from Poland to the West.

The German invasion of Denmark.
The neutrality of Denmark was shatter early one quite and snowy November morning when three German divisions, the Wehrmacht 3rd Inf div, PzJag I div and the 14th SS inf div, crossed the border with great speed with the intention to subdue Denmark before Britain or France could actively intervene. The 3rd Inf div quickly marched into and captured Copenhagen. The PzJag I div raced up the major north-south highway capturing the ports of Aarhus and Frederikshawn along the way. The Dannish fleet based Frederikshaven, which consisted of 2 CAs and 1 CP, were all able to escape to Scapa Flow. The PzJap I div didn't stop there, they continued on west and then southwest to capture two more hexes, both of which are adjacent to the North Sea. The 14th SS div was tasked with capturing two key hexes just north of the border and adjacent to the North Sea. As the screen cap below shows the invasion of Denmark was a complete success.

Note: By rule, the Danes had to base 1/2 of their units in Denmark, which means they were allowed to base up to 1/2 of their forces outside of Denmark. So the Danes based 1/2 of their fleet in Frederikshawn (i.e., in Denmark) and the other half (i.e., 5 CPs) in the Faeores islands. Recall that a CP counts as 1/2 of a unit.

Land Combat.
1. Japan. Tungwan. 8 Japanese land units attacked 1 ChiComm unit. The "original" odds (i.e., w/o any HQ or ground support) was +10A. With one defender these odds give the Japanese a 97% chance of taking the city, 3% chance of losing 3 units and 0.69 expected attacking units killed. The Japanese decide to add HQ support from Umezu (+1.5) and maximum ground support (+1.5) for add odds of +13A. These odds give the Japanese a 100% chance of taking the city, 0% chance of losing 3 units and reduced expected losses to 0.33 units. Japan rolls a 9, which produces a modified roll of +22. Japan loses a unit (inf div) and has to disorganize half of the remaining attacking units (i.e., 3 of 7).

Notable Air Rebase.
1. Germany. LND2, FTR3, LND2, FTR2 from in/near Poland to the West.

[rkr1958]

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #4.

Objectives.

CW.
1. BEF + Additional Threat in Being to North Sea.
2. Replace 2nd Inf div in Bombay.*
3. Deter/Counter any German invasion of Holland.
4. Protect convoy and sea lanes.
5. Increased save oil in England by +1.**

* An interesting side effect of playing without unlimited breakdown is that it makes those infantry divisions you do get "elite". Well, elite that is if you're playing with SCS transport, which we are.
** Last turn the CW successfully increased the saved oil in England by +1 from 2 to 3 points.

USSR.
1. Claim Bessarabia.
2. Maintain Nazi-Soviet pact garrison ratio.

France.
1. Interdict (i.e., sink/abort) Germany convoys in the Baltic.
2. Interdict the KM if they venture into the North Sea.
3. Build up/organize defenses against Germany.
4. Maintain deterrence against Italy.

CW Convoy/Production Review.
1. Currently, and last turn, allied convoy routes supported full production from 22 factories. At 0.5 production multiplier this produces 11 BP's. Because factions of 0.5 or higher are round up, the CW can idle one of their factories and still achieve full production with the 0.5 multiplier. The CW plans to, as they did last turn, to idle the factory using an oil point and save that oil point instead to England.
2. The CW has 17 CP's not being use to transport resources. 1 of these CP's is being used to maintain supply in the North Sea, so in actuality the CW really only has 16 unused, or reserve, CP's. 1 of these 16 CP's is disorganized (i.e., Dannish CP that escaped to Scapa Flow). The disposition of these 16 reserve CP's are: 1 Lerwick, 5 Torshaven, 1 Scapa Flow (disorg), 4 Liverpool, 4 Gibraltar and 1 Aden.
3. Sub threat. The Germans have two u-boat units in Keil (4-2 & 4-3) and the Italians have three sub units in La Sepzia (5-2, 5-3 & 4-2). The Italian subs are potential "surprise" threats impact which sea boxes escorts will move to. That is, against surprise threats only the 0-box, and possibly 1-box, will be patrolled by the RN.
(3.a) German u-boat threat. 2 Faeroes Gap, 1 North Atlantic, 1 Bay of Biscay,.
(3.b) Italian surprise sub threat. 3 Cape St. Vincent, 1 North Atlantic, 1 Cape Verde Basin, 3 West Med, 3 East Med.

Actions.
1. USSR (neutral) - combined, China - land, CW - naval, France - combined, USA (neutral) - combined.
2. USSR claims Bessarabia and Germany allows the claim.

Notable Naval Moves.
1. CW. TRS in Gibraltar moves to the North Sea and picks up an elite 7-3 inf corps from England.*
2. CW. Gort, mech, mot moved on transports, and under heavy escort, to the North Sea.*
3. CW. ASW patrols sent to all threaten sea areas.**
4. USA. CP from Midway to Bismarck Sea.
5. USA. CP from China Sea to Manilla. The USA meant to RTB this CP to Manilla last turn and forgot. In order to ensure that the USA player didn't "forget" again this move was made.
6. USA. Transport from Long Beach loaded with AA and Arty divisions, both of which were embarked to Midway later in the impulse.

*The screen cap below shows the CW and France naval forces, or their forces in being, in the North Sea at the end of their impulse.
** Screen cap next post showing CW ASW allocations.

Naval Combat.
1. France. French subs in the Baltic search for but do not find the German convoys operating there.

Nazi-Soviet Pact Garrison Ratio.
1. The Soviets increased their garrison ratio from 7(1m) to 19(1m) through moving land and air units. The impact of this was to deny the Germans the ability to break the pact. Prior to the moves the Germans had ratio to break the pact but was forbidden to because of the "pact-year" restriction (i.e., cannot break the pact in the year it was made no matter the ratio). However, next turn (i.e., Jan/Feb 1940) that restriction would no longer be in place. So, it was imperative for the Soviets to get a sufficient ratio in place before this turn ended. While unlikely (10% chance), this turn can end on the next (axis) impulse.

Land Combat Considerations.
1. The Nationalist Chinese move 6 of their units adjacent to a single, and OOS, Japanese garrison. Yet they can only manage +4, so they wisely opt not to attack.
2. The Nationalist also move on the single division holding the ferry separating Tungkwan from mainland China. Again the Nationalist can't manage any decent odds. But they are threatening this vital city and its adjacent RP.

[rkr1958]

CW ASW Summary.

[rkr1958]

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #7.

Weather. Roll = 8 + 2 = 10. (+2,3).
1. Arctic - blizzard.
2. North Temperate - snow.
3. Med - snow.
4. North Monsoon - rain.
5. South Monsoon - snow.
6. South Temperate - rain.

This is about as miserable weather as one can get. No German invasion of Holland this impulse. There's at best a 54% percent chance that the axis will get another impulse this turn. And if they do, there's a 30% chance of weather favorable to invading Holland (i.e., fine or rain). Thus, the chance for a German invasion of Holland this turn is 16%.

DOW / Special Actions.
1. Germany allows both Bulgaria's and Hungary's claim against Romania.

Actions. Germany - land, Italy (neutral) - combined, Japan - combined.

Naval Moves.
Japan.
1. TRS w/Tokyo MIL to 2-box of South China Sea.
2. TRS w/MiL & TRS w/Eng and Arty Div to 3-box of China Sea.
Italy
1. TRS w/5-4 mot (Trieste) to 1-box of East Med. Mot coprs disembarked to Tobruk later in the impulse.

Strategic Bombing.
1. Japan. Kweiyang, no effect.

Ground Strikes.
1. 3 x 1(0.5) against 1 (OOS cavalry). (0/1). Again, the Japanese fail to disorganize that OOS Chinese cavalry corps. Since 0.5 rounds up to 1, with three CPVs, each with a 10% chance, there was a 27% overall chance of disorganizing the unit. Japan will get and kill that unit eventually.

Notable Rails.
1. Germany. Von Leeb, Arty Div, Inf corps from Poland to the Western Front.

Japan's 3 Land Moves (they took a combined).
1. 1-5 mot div to the unsecure (i.e., undefended) RP[73,143] in Northern China.
2. Disembarked Arty div to an unsecure RP in Harichow. (The Chinese partisan unit that disrupted this RP last turn moved away last impulse in order to survive this impulse).
3. Disembarked Eng Div to an unsecure Shanghai, which was under under threat, but not yet occupied, by the Chinese partisan.

End of Turn.
Unbelievable, this turn too ends on a 1 throw against a 10% chance of ending. The axis got two impulse and the allies only one this turn. Once again, the BEF is caught on-board their transports in the North Sea when the turn ends. So far this game, the axis have had 5 impulses and the allies 3. The allies strategy of letting the axis move first this turn has apparently worked. The initiative track is at 0, moving 2 boxes in the allies favor since the game began.

Partisan. None (i.e., no additional ones).

USA Entry.
+1 Ge/It (3/0 chits; 21/0 points). Jpn (2/0 chits; 18/0 points).

Options chosen.
13. Embargo on Strategic Materials (to Japan). Tension (Jpn) roll = 8 > 5, no chit moved.
15. Resources to Western Allies, Tension (Ge/It) roll = 10 > 6, no chit moved.
9. Resources to China, Tension (Jpn) roll = 9 > 4, no chit moved.
At this point the US has chosen all the options they can this turn even though no chits in either entry pool were moved to their respective tension pool.

Notable Returns to Base.
1. USA. 2 CPs Central Pacific, 1 CP Hawaiian Islands, 1 CP Mendicion, 1 CP West Coast returned to various Pacific ports including Manila (1 CP from Central Pacific). Maybe the USA shouldn't have wasted 1 of their 3 naval moves to move the CP in the China Sea to Manila.
2. Japan. 6-2 MIL in South China Sea to Hainan.
3. Japan. 5-3 MIL in China Sea to Haichow.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Destroyed Pool.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. (Western) Allied Convoy Routes.

So far, allied sea lanes and convoy routes have not be threaten by the axis. Nice, but surely that won't continue.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. CW Production.

Ah, the value of fractions. The CW uses that power to maintain full BP production and save an additional oil point to England.

The CW does have two idle (non-oil) RP, both of which are in Malaysia. However, it would take 14 or the 16 reserve (i.e., unused) CP's to get both to factories. This would leave only 2 reserve CP's and the route taken would be the more dangerous route through the Med and requires 7 CP's per RP. The more safer route around the Horn of Africa would required 9 CP's per RP. So in theory the reserve 16 CP's could be used to transport 1 RP through the Med and 1 around the Horn Africa. Either way, however, would leave the CW will 0 or 2 reserve CP's, which would be insufficient to overcome (i.e., mitigate) even one, much less two, successful axis sub attacks. The bottom line is that the gain involved in getting these two RPs to factories, thus saving 2 more oil per turn, is just not worth the risk.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Global Map.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Victory Totals.