OT - The New Coronavirus

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lobster

ORIGINAL: Hellen_slith

A what? a virus? That's beyond me. I have absolutely ZERO concern.

Pretty sad when one of the LAST bastions of rather elevated thought--a wargames forum, where pretty much all folks have a better than average intelligence--

is invaded by this fear-mongering BS. Keep it out of here, please. I am just fine w/ my brew and wargame, thanks.

Just in case anyone considers this the common flu and are feeling safe and secure in their homes:

https://www.globalsecurity.org/security ... w%252e2kup

Remember, China is an authoritarian nation that has high levels of control of it's people and their movement.

China's authoritarianism vis a vis disease control cuts both ways. While they do have higher levels of control of people's movement, their reporting mechanisms for diseases should always be taken with a grain of salt. A BIG grain of salt. They tend to not report things of medical importance when it jeopardizes their export markets or challenges their state-run world view. They are evasive with their 'case definitions' and rule-outs of other causative or diseases of co-morbidity. They over report conditions when it suits their world view and have used this to sweep other health issues under the rug-a so-called 'kitchen sink' report. I could go on and on about how I view the Chinese 'take' on this disease with circumspection. Overapplication of their reported case-fatality rate, 'numbers infected', numbers hospitalized and on and on is fraught with logical peril if one doubts the verity of their tale from the get go.

They're not the only ones that do this, of course. I've seen the same approach from many (mostly) authoritarian regimes that want to control the flow of information and use epidemic outbreaks to their party political advantage. Unfortunately, I've also seen more limited instances of manipulation of events and news flow in Western democracies too. Including some states domestically.

Point being: I think there is a novel pathogen in the Wuhan-origin Coronavirus outbreak. But that's as far as I'm going. Is it worse than other domestic Chinese respiratory pathogens that they aren't so widely reporting? Probably not, believe it or not. Is it worse than the H1N1 "Spanish Flu"? Doubtful. Is it worse than "SARS"? Doubtful. Is it a more significant global threat than myriad other Chinese-spawned infectious diseases that don't get as much media play anymore? Maybe, maybe not.

For those of you that think this is the next global pandemic, I'd advise you to sell everything you may own in the stock market, cordon off your homes, cut off ties with work acquaintances and stock up on dehydrated food. Oh, get yourself a potable (chlorinated) water source too. Firearms optional but advised.

For those that think this overblown (full disclosure: me), I'd wait for a couple-three weeks of stock market panic. We've got one under our belts now, wait another two or so. Then buy stocks that you'd wanted to buy for the last three months but were too 'expensive'. Panickers gonna panic. Particularly those that haven't seen this sort of thing before and lack the objectivity to distinguish between novelty and horror.

I agree that a full blown pandemic is unlikely, provided that precautions like travel bans are taken.

I didn't intend to panic the forum membership, merely to provide some facts about 2019-nCoV. Alas, it seems few people bothered to read the articles I linked to at the beginning of this thread. [8|]

[Lobster]

No one is in panic mode except maybe the Chinese and for good reason. But informed is prepared. I've had pneumonia twice because I'm too stupid to stay home when I'm sick and worked in sub zero temps. I'm still here. [:'(]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The Spanish Flu was in wartime so that should be an outlier. Some people were actually buried alive. It may have been a bird flu from India, actually.

Are the numbers up because it is spreading faster? Or are the numbers up because they now have a test and know what they are looking for? Are the deaths actually from another, complacating illness? Are there other factors involved in the deaths?

Please read the articles linked to at the beginning of this thread....

Zilch-

I reread those articles you posted to from Science. Excellent references. I learned a lot myself. Thank you for posting.

[z1812]

Statistically, and at the moment, it seems the Corona Virus is not as deadly as the SARs virus was in 2003. However it is more contagious. The SARs virus was less contagious but more deadly.

Global deaths each year from the Flu are generally estimated to be between 300,000 to 600,000. That is based upon countries that are organized to track and report, so the figure is probably higher.

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The Spanish Flu was in wartime so that should be an outlier. Some people were actually buried alive. It may have been a bird flu from India, actually.

Are the numbers up because it is spreading faster? Or are the numbers up because they now have a test and know what they are looking for? Are the deaths actually from another, complacating illness? Are there other factors involved in the deaths?

Please read the articles linked to at the beginning of this thread....

Zilch-

I reread those articles you posted to from Science. Excellent references. I learned a lot myself. Thank you for posting.

Thank you. As a vet, I assume you take precautions against animal diseases?

I posted this because I have a friend who business travels a lot, and was spooked by the media reporting.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Zorch



Please read the articles linked to at the beginning of this thread....

Zilch-

I reread those articles you posted to from Science. Excellent references. I learned a lot myself. Thank you for posting.

Thank you. As a vet, I assume you take precautions against animal diseases?

I posted this because I have a friend who business travels a lot, and was spooked by the media reporting.

You're a vet and are disturbed by my pictures of my right foot? I presume that you mean animal doctor.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

No one is in panic mode except maybe the Chinese and for good reason. But informed is prepared. I've had pneumonia twice because I'm too stupid to stay home when I'm sick and worked in sub zero temps. I'm still here. [:'(]

I had pneumonia in the summer. But at least I am above the ground. I also had an infected foot at the time.

Maybe I should see about posting pictures or x-rays for Zorch . . . [;)]

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




Zilch-

I reread those articles you posted to from Science. Excellent references. I learned a lot myself. Thank you for posting.

Thank you. As a vet, I assume you take precautions against animal diseases?

I posted this because I have a friend who business travels a lot, and was spooked by the media reporting.

You're a vet and are disturbed by my pictures of my right foot? I presume that you mean animal doctor.

CB is a vet - not me.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Zorch



Thank you. As a vet, I assume you take precautions against animal diseases?

I posted this because I have a friend who business travels a lot, and was spooked by the media reporting.

You're a vet and are disturbed by my pictures of my right foot? I presume that you mean animal doctor.

CB is a vet - not me.

My mistook! [:@]

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

For those that think this overblown (full disclosure: me), I'd wait for a couple-three weeks of stock market panic. We've got one under our belts now, wait another two or so. Then buy stocks that you'd wanted to buy for the last three months but were too 'expensive'. Panickers gonna panic. Particularly those that haven't seen this sort of thing before and lack the objectivity to distinguish between novelty and horror.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51637481

"We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad," said Dr Nancy Messonnier of the National Center for Immunisation and Respiratory Diseases in a conference call with reporters on Tuesday.

"It's not so much a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen," she said, adding: "Disruption to everyday life might be severe."

[demyansk]

Curious that certain people are using this for politics. Very sad, all I know is this, need to divest from China.

[sPzAbt653]

Disruption to everyday life might be severe

Holy Shirt! I better prepare. What should I do?

[Zovs]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Disruption to everyday life might be severe

Holy Shirt! I better prepare. What should I do?

1. Respirator, stock filters
2. Water, stockpile
3. Can foods, stockpile
4. Weapon(s), locked and loaded
5. Ammo, massive stockpile
6. Matches, lighters, wood, stockpiles
7. See 4 and 5
8. Gas, stockpile
9. Double check 4
10. Restock 5

[Lobster]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Disruption to everyday life might be severe

Holy Shirt! I better prepare. What should I do?

I would suggest a plastic bag and helium. [:D]

Oh snap there's a helium shortage.

[Gilmer]

As everyone knows, one of the biggest differences between now and WW1 is that we are much better prepared to deal with something like this. I expect this to blow over like SARS and MERS did, with varying degrees of panic. And if it gets me, it gets me.

[sPzAbt653]

But Kurt, see Post #50 for an official quote. Now, is this overblowing it in order to avoid criticism if it is bad? Or is it a REAL warning? Either way, doing some preparation doesn't seem to be a harmful thing to do. I've been a bit paranoid since the War of the Worlds remake, in which the public and government reaction seemed reasonable. So I thank Jack for providing some suggestions, although I don't know what a respirator is nor where to get one, and for weapons I would imagine that means guns and I have none [and probably shouldn't].

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lobster

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

For those that think this overblown (full disclosure: me), I'd wait for a couple-three weeks of stock market panic. We've got one under our belts now, wait another two or so. Then buy stocks that you'd wanted to buy for the last three months but were too 'expensive'. Panickers gonna panic. Particularly those that haven't seen this sort of thing before and lack the objectivity to distinguish between novelty and horror.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51637481

"We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad," said Dr Nancy Messonnier of the National Center for Immunisation and Respiratory Diseases in a conference call with reporters on Tuesday.

"It's not so much a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen," she said, adding: "Disruption to everyday life might be severe."

Saw that. My experience with some scientists is that they enjoy the limelight and can be prone to hyperbole when they have an opportunity. What I was always taught in my media training is stick to the script and avoid emotionally-charged words like "severe" or "this might be bad". Such colorful language by a respiratory immunologist tends to rub public health types the wrong way. It's probably the reason that the CDC is 'playing by the rules' in terms of communication with the media. Their website avoids appeal to emotion and is probably a better source for information. From their website, updated today:

CDC Recommends
While the immediate risk of this new virus to the American public is believed to be low at this time, everyone can do their part to help us respond to this emerging public health threat:
It’s currently flu and respiratory disease season and CDC recommends getting a flu vaccine, taking everyday preventive actions to help stop the spread of germs, and taking flu antivirals if prescribed.
If you are a healthcare provider, be on the look-out for people who recently traveled from China and have fever and respiratory symptoms.
If you are a healthcare provider caring for a COVID-19 patient or a public health responder, please take care of yourself and follow recommended infection control procedures.
If you have been in China or have been exposed to someone sick with COVID-19 in the last 14 days, you will face some limitations on your movement and activity. Please follow instructions during this time. Your cooperation is integral to the ongoing public health response to try to slow spread of this virus. If you develop COVID-19 symptoms, contact your healthcare provider, and tell them about your symptoms and your travel or exposure to a COVID-19 patient.
For people who are ill with COVID-19, please follow CDC guidance on how to reduce the risk of spreading your illness to others.

I'm still convinced that the actual virus itself and the disease itself has been hyped out of all rational thought. Are you aware that we've lost some 4,000 Americans to influenza already this year? Didja hear a word about that? Probably not. All eyes are on the bright bouncing ball of a novel mild respiratory virus and whatever the Chinese say about their 'offical tally'. The worst aspects of this disease stem from the wild overreactions and the unintended consequences wrought by bad public health policy.

What I probably downplayed or overlooked somewhat was how much more global the world economy is than it was during SARS in 2003. China's economy seizing up and even recessing didn't matter so much then. Now, with global supply chains so intertwined, we're going to likely experience a demand shock as well as a supply shock. I didn't forsee that differential impact.

Still, I stand by my previous comments. By and large, we will look back on this episode 6-12 months from now and shake our heads at our lemming rush over the cliffs.

ETA: I bought Moderna (symbol MRNA) a few months ago for their novel approach to vaccine production. They're up big on news that they may be first-to-market with a vaccine. Profit from the panic.

[Zorch]

Let's not panic or joke about COVID-19. It's very real, but it has not yet been declared a pandemic. PLEASE read https://www.sciencenews.org/article/whe ... nities-cdc BEFORE responding to this post.

People who travel, or associate with people who do travel, are most at risk.

A summary of COVID-19 effects, based on 72,314 Chinese cases, from https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... erm=022420 :

Mild: 81% (36,160 cases)
Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

2.3% (1023 people) of the Chinese cases were fatal.
(The remaining cases were not categorized, except that none were fatal)

Thank you.

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Lobster

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

For those that think this overblown (full disclosure: me), I'd wait for a couple-three weeks of stock market panic. We've got one under our belts now, wait another two or so. Then buy stocks that you'd wanted to buy for the last three months but were too 'expensive'. Panickers gonna panic. Particularly those that haven't seen this sort of thing before and lack the objectivity to distinguish between novelty and horror.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51637481

"We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad," said Dr Nancy Messonnier of the National Center for Immunisation and Respiratory Diseases in a conference call with reporters on Tuesday.

"It's not so much a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen," she said, adding: "Disruption to everyday life might be severe."

Saw that. My experience with some scientists is that they enjoy the limelight and can be prone to hyperbole when they have an opportunity. What I was always taught in my media training is stick to the script and avoid emotionally-charged words like "severe" or "this might be bad". Such colorful language by a respiratory immunologist tends to rub public health types the wrong way. It's probably the reason that the CDC is 'playing by the rules' in terms of communication with the media. Their website avoids appeal to emotion and is probably a better source for information. From their website, updated today:

CDC Recommends
While the immediate risk of this new virus to the American public is believed to be low at this time, everyone can do their part to help us respond to this emerging public health threat:
It’s currently flu and respiratory disease season and CDC recommends getting a flu vaccine, taking everyday preventive actions to help stop the spread of germs, and taking flu antivirals if prescribed.
If you are a healthcare provider, be on the look-out for people who recently traveled from China and have fever and respiratory symptoms.
If you are a healthcare provider caring for a COVID-19 patient or a public health responder, please take care of yourself and follow recommended infection control procedures.
If you have been in China or have been exposed to someone sick with COVID-19 in the last 14 days, you will face some limitations on your movement and activity. Please follow instructions during this time. Your cooperation is integral to the ongoing public health response to try to slow spread of this virus. If you develop COVID-19 symptoms, contact your healthcare provider, and tell them about your symptoms and your travel or exposure to a COVID-19 patient.
For people who are ill with COVID-19, please follow CDC guidance on how to reduce the risk of spreading your illness to others.

I'm still convinced that the actual virus itself and the disease itself has been hyped out of all rational thought. Are you aware that we've lost some 4,000 Americans to influenza already this year? Didja hear a word about that? Probably not. All eyes are on the bright bouncing ball of a novel mild respiratory virus and whatever the Chinese say about their 'offical tally'. The worst aspects of this disease stem from the wild overreactions and the unintended consequences wrought by bad public health policy.

What I probably downplayed or overlooked somewhat was how much more global the world economy is than it was during SARS in 2003. China's economy seizing up and even recessing didn't matter so much then. Now, with global supply chains so intertwined, we're going to likely experience a demand shock as well as a supply shock. I didn't forsee that differential impact.

Still, I stand by my previous comments. By and large, we will look back on this episode 6-12 months from now and shake our heads at our lemming rush over the cliffs.

ETA: I bought Moderna (symbol MRNA) a few months ago for their novel approach to vaccine production. They're up big on news that they may be first-to-market with a vaccine. Profit from the panic.

Please see post #33 in this thread for the comparative death rates of influenza and recent new diseases. As of a month ago, "The Center for Disease Control estimates that there have been more than 15 million cases of the flu, and more than 8,200 deaths so far in the 2019-2020 flu season in the USA."

I think the biggest impact of COVID-19 will be on travel, and on industries that rely on travel or long distance shipping.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Let's not panic or joke about COVID-19. It's very real, but it has not yet been declared a pandemic. PLEASE read https://www.sciencenews.org/article/whe ... nities-cdc BEFORE responding to this post.

People who travel, or associate with people who do travel, are most at risk.

A summary of COVID-19 effects, based on 72,314 Chinese cases:

Mild: 81% (36,160 cases)
Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

2.3% (1023 people) of the Chinese cases were fatal.

Thank you.

Sorry, Zorch. As a diagnostician, I balk at using the Chinese figures verbatim. Too fraught with political / party influence and glossing over the messy details of diagnostics. Their case definition has changed repeatedly through the outbreak and their case tallies are no more than symptomatic assessments in most cases. And, as I stated before, finding this viral agent in the presence of clinical symptoms (fever, respiratory disease) without ruling out the causality of those other primary respiratory diseases (influenza, bacterial pneumonia, TB, emphysema, etc.) makes assignation of any percentages to this disease impossible.

Without knowing the numerator and the denominator of the equation, you're left guessing how apt the data is to fit the model. If tens of millions of Chinese have been exposed and developed no symptoms and 2,000 cases were fatal, then it's not a 2% case fatality rate, but a .01% case fatality rate.

If you insist on using the Chinese figures verbatim, then you should rejoice at their latest declarations about the rapid waning of the disease. According to their press, Hubei province (home to 64,287 of the 77,262 Chinese cases) only had 450 cases on February 24. A dramatic slowdown. Please remember that the massive 'surge' in cases from Hubei coincided with the change in case definition a week or so ago.

Outside of Hubei, there are are 13,000 cases in China. For about 1.1 billion people. So that would work out to about 4,250 cases (assuming equal distribution for CONUS as China ex-Hubei) potential. x 2% 'case fatality' rate = 85 people. Awful-particularly for them and their families. But that shouldn't bring us to our knees freaking out and screaming that the sky is falling. Remember we collectively yawn about losing 40,000-65,000 people annually from flu.

But the economic consequences of China's overreaction and the stemming of their economic growth may be with us for a while. It's important not to conflate this with the boogeyman of this particular virus on our particular home turf.