Through a glass, darkly (vs Soviet AI 110/120)

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

ORIGINAL: loki100

its taken me a lot of faffing around, but I'm now sure that is the combination of a potentially large depot AND local demand sets this up. You also need a large local railyard to carry the released stuff or it will be slow to redistribute.

But HLYA is right, in many ways this trumps a super depot. You don't have critical assets tied up and once its out of reach of the immediate front lines, the stock builds up till the moment when you want to release it.

Those level 2 railyards are "Huge" for the Germans. Riga for the North, Minsk for Center, Kiev for South. If you link the rail line with Odessa you get another HUGE level 2 railyard from Odessa in the South all early game. That is what I have done in my current game. If you notice I started my offense SE of Smolensk in my game. What am I after? I am after Kharkov. Why? Kharkov has a very large level 2 railyard and for the coming winter the Germans want that in their hands & start saving up supply for the coming winter. Add Dnep with another large level 2 railyard and build up supply for the winter you shouldnt have a big supply issue with all the negative effects during the blizzard with large amounts of supply close. At least that is my thinking. The trouble is taking them in time to be able to build up that supply.

I think the challenge for the winter is to get these locations split from the immediate task of supplying the front line HQs. My Minsk sends out nothing except a little to local airfields. Odds on something like Kharkov will be close to the front, so most of what arrives goes streight out - not a bad thing but its much harder to build up a stock for later?

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

ORIGINAL: loki100

its taken me a lot of faffing around, but I'm now sure that is the combination of a potentially large depot AND local demand sets this up. You also need a large local railyard to carry the released stuff or it will be slow to redistribute.

But HLYA is right, in many ways this trumps a super depot. You don't have critical assets tied up and once its out of reach of the immediate front lines, the stock builds up till the moment when you want to release it.

Those level 2 railyards are "Huge" for the Germans. Riga for the North, Minsk for Center, Kiev for South. If you link the rail line with Odessa you get another HUGE level 2 railyard from Odessa in the South all early game. That is what I have done in my current game. If you notice I started my offense SE of Smolensk in my game. What am I after? I am after Kharkov. Why? Kharkov has a very large level 2 railyard and for the coming winter the Germans want that in their hands & start saving up supply for the coming winter. Add Dnep with another large level 2 railyard and build up supply for the winter you shouldnt have a big supply issue with all the negative effects during the blizzard with large amounts of supply close. At least that is my thinking. The trouble is taking them in time to be able to build up that supply.

I think the challenge for the winter is to get these locations split from the immediate task of supplying the front line HQs. My Minsk sends out nothing except a little to local airfields. Odds on something like Kharkov will be close to the front, so most of what arrives goes streight out - not a bad thing but its much harder to build up a stock for later?

Yes, I think it will be very difficult to get enough stock built up in Kharkov. Would really be dependent of what the front lines look like too. So very situational.

[carlkay58]

The frontline depots will NEVER build up any supply UNLESS you have very few units tracing to that specific depot. The depots to the rear, on the other hand, WILL build up supply very nicely. This is why it is necessary to keep four or so depots back on each supply line at priority 4 to build up supplies for an offensive.

This is what happens to Odessa for the Soviets. The supply depot is full of supplies at the start of the game. But it is supplying the entire Southwestern Front. It starts to drain its built up supplies on the Soviet turn 1 Logistics Phase. By turn 4 it is completely drained - whatever freight it receives by naval OR rail supply is not enough to supply the entire front. Newly built depots do not have their railyards at a high enough repair to have the throughput to help out Odessa. There are times Odessa will be sending supply nearly to Kiev in the game. As long as the Axis isolate the city by sea BEFORE they isolate it by land, Odessa will finish each Soviet Logistics phase at 0 freight because of what it supplies. IF the Axis do not isolate it by sea first, then the draw on the Odessa depot is low enough that it will begin to store freight at a quick pace. A single turn will do it for Odessa to have enough freight stored up to survive for several turns if not more. And that is the Odessa trick for the Axis based entirely on the logistics model in the game.

It is even easier against Smolensk or some other land locked depot city because once the depot is isolated, there are no more supplies coming in except possibly by air. But even if the air supply is able to hit 1000 tons/turn it does not get enough to build up supplies.

So the true trick of the logistics engine is to have depth in the depots to build up front line supplies.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: carlkay58

The frontline depots will NEVER build up any supply UNLESS you have very few units tracing to that specific depot. The depots to the rear, on the other hand, WILL build up supply very nicely. This is why it is necessary to keep four or so depots back on each supply line at priority 4 to build up supplies for an offensive.

This is what happens to Odessa for the Soviets. The supply depot is full of supplies at the start of the game. But it is supplying the entire Southwestern Front. It starts to drain its built up supplies on the Soviet turn 1 Logistics Phase. By turn 4 it is completely drained - whatever freight it receives by naval OR rail supply is not enough to supply the entire front. Newly built depots do not have their railyards at a high enough repair to have the throughput to help out Odessa. There are times Odessa will be sending supply nearly to Kiev in the game. As long as the Axis isolate the city by sea BEFORE they isolate it by land, Odessa will finish each Soviet Logistics phase at 0 freight because of what it supplies. IF the Axis do not isolate it by sea first, then the draw on the Odessa depot is low enough that it will begin to store freight at a quick pace. A single turn will do it for Odessa to have enough freight stored up to survive for several turns if not more. And that is the Odessa trick for the Axis based entirely on the logistics model in the game.

It is even easier against Smolensk or some other land locked depot city because once the depot is isolated, there are no more supplies coming in except possibly by air. But even if the air supply is able to hit 1000 tons/turn it does not get enough to build up supplies.

So the true trick of the logistics engine is to have depth in the depots to build up front line supplies.

I have gotten 2nd depot behind the front line to build up supply. It is all how you situate your army and Depots. Not to mention the throughput getting there.

[carlkay58]

Yes the second tier depots will stockpile well but for a major offensive (such as Spring 42 for Axis or later ones for the Soviets) the further rear depots will be able to fill the combat units with little additional strain on the trucks.

[GibsonPete]

This is great stuff. It makes my brain hurt. All of you have saved me hours of 'what if' game time and revealed the depth of a true strategy game.

[loki100]

T53- 21 June 1942

Really just reporting to provide data and context.

Quick Summary

Weather in April/May was all over the place. Localised patches of clear ground next to heavy mud. Turns of heavy rain over half the map. Norm has been light rain/light mud with this only really clearing up last turn.

Since I have lost almost all time bonus, that oddly gave me a bit of a free hand. I kept 4PzrA in its salient east of Staraya Russa and gradually generated a pocket of the Soviet units that had been attacking towards Velikie-Luki. I closed the pocket last turn and its a bit bigger than I expected.

At the same time 3 Pzr A expanded its grip on Rzhev and recently took Kalinin. Have now pulled the Pzrs of 4 Pzr A out to refit and re-allocate to 3 Pzr A. While Moscow is out of reach, I think I can make gains (after all I have something like 20 turns before the weather turns). At the least I can wreck some of their logistics system which will help me come 1943.



The AI gave me the region east of the upper Volkhov. I took the town a few turns back which cut the last direct rail to the Ladoga ports. Have been trying naval patrols to isolate Leningrad but making very little progress.

Same logic as at Moscow, I have 20 turns, doubt I'll take Leningrad but again might do some damage.



Not much to report here. Encircled Bryansk last turn, as you can see I am so optimistic that I am setting up a fall back line.



2 Pzr A has been niggling away generating small pockets. Kursk should fall this turn – I'm not sure if the best option is to carry on pushing NE or to carry out a more conventional offensive eastwards.



1 Pzr A has moved its focus from around Kharkov to the Donets and back. Just a series of small pockets.

Think that image is a good eg of how the logistics are working. Almost all the infantry have 12+MP, its rare to have a motorised unit under 40. So where I get breakthroughs I can usually escalate it into a small pocket, even if caught up in ZoC.

You can see the depot logic, roughly three priority 4 depots behind the front along each rail spur. As I add a new tier, I reduce the one furthest back to #3. Minsk and Kiev carry on functioning as large scale collection locations that I then release when I want to.

Not shown but Rumanians back on the Taman peninsula.


Logistics

NSS sent out 140k of freight this turn. This still varies turn by turn but not by so much as earlier.

No need to say too much. Main chart, I am meeting need even if there are some variances.



Truck situation. Given my short logistics chains, much as I'd hope. Could do with some more effort about repairs but that does seem to be slow.



Putting it together, fairly neat set up.



Numbers and Losses

AGS is badly overloaded but keeping corps and army loads under control.

Soviets now just over 6m.



Manpower pool – at least the AI is fairly short. I'm out of German manpower, but few formations under 60% TOE.



Ground losses – I'd guess there are some 30 Soviet divisions in the current set of pockets.



Air losses – not sure this means very much. I'm taking the view that I will push the LW at this stage to see if it helps me gain some momentum.



Destroyed formations – in effect a steady flow of Soviet losses coming from a sequence of small pockets, in total 316 lost divisions.



And VP chart – at least I'm over the October sudden loss threshold. I'm clearly not going to gain any of the remaining +6 unless I take cities that never historically fell.

[Kronolog]

Speaking of logistics, have you connected all of the resource factories in the Ukraine to your rail net? For the "long war", this might prove a useful addition to German industry. The factories in the Dnepr bend and Donbass, plus Kerch should add about 180 extra resource points when fully repaired, an increase in capacity of about 18% for the Axis.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Kronolog

Speaking of logistics, have you connected all of the resource factories in the Ukraine to your rail net? For the "long war", this might prove a useful addition to German industry. The factories in the Dnepr bend and Donbass, plus Kerch should add about 180 extra resource points when fully repaired, an increase in capacity of about 18% for the Axis.

All but Kerch are linked in, but by accident rather than particularly going for those locations. My current logistics model is based on redundancy and multiple lines (where I can), so to help in the winter battles I repaired the single line that runs west of the Dneipr bend as an eg.

[loki100]

T59 – 2 August 1942

Last few turns are a useful part of the wider play balance discussion [1]. Despite gains, I'm still finding it easy to have mobile units over 40 MP. Where I break through, even in poor terrain, that leads to pockets. Pockets lead to more breakthroughs. I pushed from the Dombas to Chir in a single turn. Or, in other words, the problem in 1941 is not potential German mobility.

On Map stuff

Main issue at Leningrad is I am ften managing to isolate it using a massive commitment to naval patrols over Lake Ladoga. But I can lose control some half turns so its not consistent.



4 Pzr A has no tanks and had 2 corps caught up in a long battle to destroy the pocket I made in the Valdai. I've decided to add one of these to the Leningrad operation and the other is off to support the operations in the south (where I really need counters).

I'm not going to take the city, even with proper isolation but I'd have to leave a lot of units here to screen it so may as well try to do as much damage as I can.



Moscow is not going to fall but I have some chance of removing its full NSS status. Note the MP of my formations, even in the dire terrain here I can exploit any breakthroughs.



1 and 2 PzrA have been working together. Basically a series of small pockets got the AI off balance – again note the MP despite being some distance now from my depots.



I think this wins an award for exposed flanks held by allies holding 30 mile frontages with a single division? 17A is led by a commander with good mech scores so III Pzr Corps reports to him.



I tried to take Rostov a few turns ago and lost 10,000 men in a failed attack. At one level have no time pressure but I can't move south till its cleared. 4 RuA has actually captured Krasnodar for the time bonus, less sure if I can hold on.



Logistics

Even with some very long supply lines, I'm meeting demand. In addition to the deep cluster of priority #4 at the front, am setting a few rear area depots to #4, letting them build up and then release the freight. Every now and then I'll do a one turn super-depot to speed this up but I need the FBD trying to repair the rails.




Trucks/unit ratio is good, repair effort remains slow.



Losses and Manpower

Been a fairly catastrophic set of turns for the AI with a total of 1.1m lost (900k permanently).



In effect a steady stream of units destroyed in pockets, that is now the equivalent of 400 divisions (divisions or corps) destroyed.



They still have a lot of spare manpower ...



The split of AGS has solved my command problems. Basically everthing on the Stalingrad-Rostov sector reports to Army Grp B.

I've actually managed a net loss of 400k off the Red Army.



Losing and not Winning

Still not going to win though but at least the HWM becomes more repectable. My guess is that Voronezh, Rostov and Tula will all fall (so that is +36). Given where the front is, Ryazan and Tambov become plausible (+32). No idea beyond that, unless both Leningrad and Moscow collapse.



[1] Yes, I know its vs the AI but the issue is German capacity not Soviet. This is not enough in 1941 as Soviet capacity is over-stated, the key issue is not German weakness, its Soviet force generation.

[loki100]

T65 – 13 September 1942

So now well off the well charted ground both in time and place. I'm not going to win but no idea what HWM I am going to be able to present to the AI when the initiative changes.

The only time bonus still in play is Stalingrad. I got a grand +1 for Voronezh.

So to come out equal, I need to deny the Soviets almost every time bonus on the map.



AI Comments

Its handled this phase well, though it has tended more to a linear defense than it did in 1941. That combined with my high mobility I think has led to the steady stream of pockets. Its coiunter-attacked enough to cause problems, but I think a Soviet player would be playing havoc with some of my extended flanks.

One thing it does annoyingly well (mostly) is to stack up City Forts in key locations. Worse its not just a serious commitment of units (they all are near the maximum allocation), its managed to generate a well stocked depot. Tula has been isolated for 4 turns (and I'm in no position to attack it yet).

Rostov is this game's Stalingrad. I've made 3 assaults with 11A (which is well set up with heavy guns and pioneers) and lost almost 10,000 men each time. Last one was the first time I got an outcome over 1-1.



It lacks Guards formations (and I've targetted those I've found) but built a lot of Rifle and Tank Corps.

Logistics

Keeping the same approach and it clearly works even when far to the east (at least for 1942).

So I am running Minsk, Kiev, Vitebsk and Dnepropetrovsk as pri #4, build up and then release. Minsk went through that cycle last turn. Given how congested my rails are, this really eases the burden.



I can even refit Pzr divisions relatively close to the front (when I have spare tanks in the production pool).



Can't complain about any of those numbers – apart from the slow truck repair situation.



Manpower, losses and stuff

Have actually taken another net 100,000 off the Soviets. Also keeping my tank numbers relatively high (and not too many damaged).



Ground losses, Soviets now have 5.7m permanent lost, so that is up 700,000 on the start of August (so its running at just over 100k per turn).



So a steady stream of pockets, often a few small ones, sometimes the best part of an Army. As in the last post, highly mobile (too mobile in mnay ways) Pzrs and Mot formations can hand out a lot of damage if they get operational freedom.



Soviets got another (the last?) manpower dump, so that will feed through. ActualGerman manpower is getting tight (not helped by the slaughter at Rostov) but I can keep the formations of my 2 main allies over 60% TOE (and thus the risk of unready units).



Map Stuff

The huge well stocked city forts are a major barrier. I probably should have used the tankless 4 Pzr A somewhere else but have persisted at Leningrad. Equally about half my level bombers are being committed to the naval blockade,

Still there is no rail connection to the Ladoga ports and only 2 single track rails to their formations on that sector. I'll see if I can clean out everything but the city forts and I'll be able to use a lot of 4 PzrA to reinforce the front lines.



At Moscow I briefly managed to cut the rails running north but a massive Soviet offensive ended that idea. 3 Pzr A then moved to attack south of the city with the goal of disrupting their wider rail network. Last turn I moved the bulk south of the Oka with a view to attacking towards Ryazan (VP and cut rails).

The city itself is invincible. 1000 cv defensive stacks and I suspect a lot of stockpiled freight.

Not shown but 9A and 16A holding a long line across the northern sector.



2 PzrA has cleared the upper Don and has a chance to take Tambov this turn. The AI is in retreat here – which makes sense as I can chop it up as I wish.

In addition to Tambov, one potential final operation is an encirclement with 3 Pzr A of the units facing Tula.



Another area off the normal track. That encirclement is typical of what either 2 or 1 Pzr A can do each turn. A major goal is to trash the Soviet rail net – there is nothing to detain me here when the initiative changes. The idea of a grand encirclement around Stalingrad is possible – but unlikely.



And to Stalingrad. My flanks are not secure but the Soviets must have real supply problems along the Don. And finally an AI error, its heavily defended S Stalingrad but left the city wide open. Given the horror of its other city defences, I'll take the gift.

You've seen Rostov, so no real move by 11A past it. 4 Ru A is still holding Krasnodar but trying to avoid combat if it can.

[loki100]

T68 – 4 October 1942

I think this is pretty much my summer offensive over. The AI is getting antsy and my only reason to attack almost anywhere now is if I can get a pocket.

Cleared Tula and Rostov and in the end both were easy. But worth setting out the solution. I remembered that in WiTW Q-Ball worked out a good solution to a hard to reduce pocket (such as in rough/mountains in Italy) was to bomb it. The damage being unimportant, what it does is to force the defender to fire their guns, using up finite stocks. So I pulled Luftwaffe 1 off Leningrad (reasons below) and set it to GA-railyard and then GA-unit on both locations. Took a lot of losses due to flak but both cities fell after 2 turns of this.

Start with the VP table – I'm not going to take anything else unless something odd happens. I maybe able to hold the iniative over winter and if so, a 1943 offensive might yield some results.

I can lose 68 VP and hold the initiative.

Of relevance, I've marked the locations I too without the +6, so if I lose them early I face a net VP loss.



OOB and losses

The ongoing squeeze on the Red Army is going to stop at some stage but that is another net 150k off. My tank numbers are holding up fairly well.



They are burning through their last manpower dump. My reserve stays steady, putting a lot of effort into refitting Hungarian, Italian and Rumanian formations.

I also have a number of German divisions on refit. At the moment I can spare them, so best to fill them out before the AI attacks on a regular basis.



My tank pools.



Ground losses.



Air losses – as noted Tula and Rostov cost a lot of level bombers



Steady stream of destroyed units. Taken out 4 Mech/Tank Corps.



Map things

I managed to isolate the region on most turns and that allowed me to clear out the non-city fort hexes. In the end I couldn't justify making that final effort (so I guess the whole commitment was a waste of time). Wanted to use 4 PzrA elsewhere but between needting to screen their cities and an offensive aimed at 18A only pulled out around 5 divisions. Still they will be useful elsewhere.



At Moscow, 2 and 9A hold in front and north of the city. Poor terrain and decent forts (plus nothing to hold onto) means I think I can manage that sector. 2 and 3 Pzr A co-operated in a series of pockets east of Tula but Ryazan is practically out of reach. 4A needs to recover from the Tula battles but will help me to generate a decent reserve.



1 PzrA on defensive for the moment. Pragmatically all I want is pockets but I may send 1 Pzr Corps to help out 17A. Note that despite the location, one turn's rest and my motorised formations are back around 40 MP.



Stalingrad. Not really sure if its worth trying to cling on for the VP or to pull back. Now that 11 A has cleared Rostov my flanks are a bit more secure.

Not shown but 4 RuA has just lost Krasnodar. Nothing else there worth risking units for so its running back to Kerch.



Logistics

The basic pattern of 3-4 pri #4 depots really works. The back line has no units pulling off it so it fills up and I can release as I need. Add on I have 5 major city depots that I alter priority as I need.

One thing to be a bit careful over, A depot with a lot of stored freight and few, if any, level 2 railyards nearby, may take a while to shift its excess stock.

[loki100]

T73 – 8 November 1942

Not much happened in the last sequence of turns. 2 and 3 Pzr A co-operated to clear the road to Ryazan and generated a couple of decent pockets on the way. 1 Pzr A took out an incautious Soviet offensive.

Since, for me, this game is now well into uncharted territory. Equally I've neem experimenting with some ideas.

This turn is light snow/clear almost across the map.

Map things

So before any discussion, context on the map. I've taken off the counters and added VP locations as that may help with the rest of the post.

Soviet defenders in NW Leningrad have weakened so I maybe able to take that. Despite its long isolation, no obvious weakening in the city itself.

The black lines are where I have a strong fall back fort line – mostly made by adding FZ to existing forts when the front moved.

Over most of this sector, I don't care. Have a network of depots, the terrain is awful and mostly have nothing I need to defend. Even if the Soviets make serious gains, their rail net is trashed. The exception is I expect 18A to be beaten back on the upper Volkhov when it freezes. So that might cost me both my siege of Leningrad and force 18A into a general retreat towards Novgorod.



I should take Ryazan next turn, one reason for going for these locations is I keep the +6 time bonus regardless of what happens next. To the west, I have strong fortification belts protecting Smolensk. The newly arrived Luftwaffe divisions have been sent to dig holes around Rzhev – I don't trust them anywhere near the front line.

Ryazan will be hit by my heavier bombers with 1000lb bombs this turn. I spent the heavy rain turns making sure the LW has the most modern planes I have available.

On the assumption of serious Soviet pressure I've written off Kalinin but will try to hold Rzhev. 4A has basically allowed 3 Pzr A to go back into reserve.



6A is now teamed with 2 Pzr A (which in turn is mostly pulled back as a reserve). My assumption is that Tambov is lost, think I have a chance of holding Voronezh – not least (again) the Soviets are going to have real supply problems. Other LW formations are now digging in around Voronezh and the Don.



This is where I need to decide. I got the +6 for Stalingrad so if I lose it soon that balances out. But if I hold it till Ryazan falls, then my HWM will be improved, so its worth trying to cling onto for the moment.

In an emergency, I can move some of 1 PzrA here and replace it with 2 Par A, but 11A is essentially a siege force not designed for a mobile battle.

Not shown, 4 RuA has fallen back into the Taman Peninsula, if the AI shows no interest I'll hold what I have left but content to retreat over the Kerch if under pressure.



Victory

All of which feeds into the VP rules. If I take Ryazan I'll have a HWM of around 705, so a bit below the value at the start of StB but compared to where I was a year ago, I'm pretty content. The only way to the 800 to win in July 43 is via Moscow, so my assumption is at some stage I lose the initiative.

The Soviets need to deprive me of 71 (assuming Ryazan) and my assumption is they will take Stalingrad (36), Kalinin (10), Tambov (10) and Ryazan (10). They will get time bonus for Maikop when the initiative changes. So that is 5 short (assuming we trade off map VP and I've sent a fair bit of second rate stuff to France etc).

Clearly any of Voronezh, Rostov, Tula or Rzhev mean they gain the initiative. Part of my logic to writing off Stalingrad is that might give me the force to hold Rostov and Voronezh.

The longer I can cling on to a line from Rzhev to Rostov the more I can time them out too. Really its a case now of playing for December 1944.



Other Numbers

Manpower pools.

I've consumed the last manpower dump they received. Weak spot on my side is I am down to only 60k German mapower – but will get the 'Stalingrad' bonus in early 1943.



Soviets back over 6m, good thing for me is the state of the Pzrs (with very few damaged).

Their Rifle Corps become increasingly bruising to deal with.



Ground losses. They have only had 200k permanent losses in the last set of turns.



Not making many pockets and they become smaller.



Tank pools. Not great but at least the tanks are in my formations. I finally opted to send the 6 weakest Pzr divisions to the reserve. I've brought them back 2 at a time to different NSS and they filled up readily with both tanks and trucks. My logic is the last 4-5 turns have been a good spot to weaken when the front is essentially static.

Those, plus the post-Stalingrad reinforcements will give me a strategic reserve of 8 strong Pzr divisions (plus the returning Pzr Gr formations).



No point talking about logistics, this approach works. Even with the current front lines, my mobile units easily have 40 MP.

[loki100]

T75 – 22 November 1942

I'm not going to revert to a detailed AAR but the last 2 turns were a surprise.

On T74, all of a sudden the entire Soviet position at Leningrad and Orienabaum collapsed as their supplies finally ran out. I also took Tambov after 2 turns of bombing and assaults.

So I had a score of 740, only 10 short of a win in Jan 43. Now I couldn't see where these 10 were going to come from so it was a bit less exciting than it sounds – though I did wish I'd put more effort into holding Krasnodar.

So I spent a bit of time thinking about really committing 17A to Stalingrad but decided to wait and see.

Unfortunately, the AI can count too (and reads AARs but that is a different issue) and launched a massive theatre wide offensive.

Turfed me out of Stalingrad, so that fantasy went plop ...



Anyway T75 was blizzards which hits my mobility. Apart from Stalingrad I lost nothing that really matters, the AI made gains on the Upper Volkhov and around Moscow, trashed some Rumanians and this on the long sector held by 1 Pzr A. That is my only immediate crisis point and I can fall back and blunt their spearheads.

That will cost me Tambov but I never really expected to hold on there.



Glad I told Hermann's finest to dig holes as I'm going to be needing them.

So, we are in for the long haul, I guess I can manage this winter offensive as I have a good supply grid and plenty of space I'm willing to trade off.

What has basically happened is I traded the +36 for Leningrad against -36 for Stalingrad. My logic was that Stalingrad was always going to come out neutral. Given where they have broken through, the immediate challenge is to cling to Voronezh till T59 (that then is a neutral exchange, T60 and I gain a net 1 VP).

The good thing is I hold the initiative till they push me below 672 VP, the bad thing is I now think that makes no difference. I clearly can't hold what I have, and I doubt I can take much back against the 1943 Soviet army.

But the good thing, they need to match off the 741 on 31 December 1944 or I win.



All my extra gains put me +70 over the StB situation. The extra +6s are fixed and will help offset all the places I took with no time bonus.

So its all about clinging to key locations long enough to time out the Soviets while not losing my army in the process – in effect the second half of the game as designed. I've never played the Axis into this stage from 1941 before so this promises to be 'interesting'.

[loki100]

T80 – 27 December 1942

When you were last here, I was still musing about retaining the initiative and if there was any means of reaching one of the 1943 VP targets.

I think we can officially accept that is not going to happen. The last 5 turns have been scarily grim, a front wide offensive chewing deep into my lines with 18 and 16A on the edge of disaster – they've just been heavily reinforced.

As a summary, this says it all – the initiative flipped this turn with the loss of Kalinin.



I think this may be the very first game Axis 1941 GC to see the initiative change and its produced a series of errors (I've done a bug report). But basically the AI can't get a time bonus for Rostov (as my first capture was after its historical recapture date), its going to get +12 time bonus (with no limit) for Tula and Leningrad – deeply frustrating as I was rather banking on them. Also it can get the +6 for Kharkov again (it got it in the first winter as it recaptured the city). So odds on, that is a net +12 time bonus points lost that I was counting on.

Anyway, the AI now needs to take 436 VP to avoid losing on December 1944. Assuming it gets the time bonus it gets 240+114 (354) for liberating the USSR. That will give it an additional 36 as Finland will have bailed out so we are around 390.

Rumania has 60 VP (72 with the time bonus) which not only gets them over the auto-loss but also close to the sudden win values. If I can deprive the AI of 37 time pts I can survive despite the loss of Rumania (which does make the Leningrad/Rostov situation a wee bit frustrating).

Or, in other words, encouraging Rumania to hang around and not losing much of Poland or E Prussia might just see me safe.

In this game the VP system works as intended, I now need to do things that are not optimal due to those political constraints, a huge improvement over the WiTE1 straight line and move 1 hex back each turn.



Logistics

This is like one of those films that run in reverse. I'm keeping the 3 tiers of priority 4 depots and that is working fine. But what I'm now doing is mostly setting the front line to 0 to clear out the freight. One small problem, a depot with a lot of stored freight and no local level 2 railyards can end up with freight stuck there – so I'm reviewing the back tiers for such locations and dropping it to say pri 1 or 2 just to get the freight redeployed.

Anyway, the army is well supplied.



Truck situation – no idea what this really means for either side but I have enough to keep my army motorised.



Losses and Numbers

This is before the T80 axis ground phase.

Ground:



I doubt I'll add to this pile but in the end I destroyed a decent haul of Soviet formations.



For which I am very glad, this has been worse than the 41-42 winter so far so I hate to think what it would have been if they had been over 6m.

AG Don is the converted 11A, the LW Corps have control over Hermann's diggers.



Their manpower reserve is recovering – in part as I am no longer inflcting particular losses and they have liberated a few large cities.

German manpower is low but will increase with the Stalingrad bonus (useful as I never lost 6A – or 17A). Rumanian reserves running low as I refit their formations, they really need to come out of the front line and be used to create fall back lines.

E-Adolf has a big 'I love Rumania' poster in his HQ.



Tanks – I have lots of Tigers, but no-one to use them. I'm glad I pulled off my weaker Pzr divisions to refit in Oct-Nov as I can't spare them now.



Maps

Leningrad. Have lost a lot far more quickly than I expected. The only way to hold a hex here is 2 divisions. As you can see, reinforcements arriving, I've Pzrs in the front line. I can't retake anything I lose so no illusions of a mobile reserve and I find reserve reactions less use than crude defensive power.



One issue here is the speed at which I lost control of the dual track rail – my hope is it'll take a while to repair. 9A and 2A have been badly hit but are controlling their retreat. Rzhev is the first real test, I need to hold to T87 to make some dent in the Soviet time bonus (92 to eliminate their time gains).



The equivalent of 3 German armies (4, 6 and 3 Pzr) defending Tula. Ignoring the VP issue its a critical rail junction so I'm prepared to leave a stay behind force depending on other constraints.



The initial Soviet gains here have stalled. 1 and 2 Pzr have been locally attacking (I need to hold Voronezh to T87 to deprive them of the time bonus – remember I only got +1).

Problem is that the main weight of 1 Pzr has moved south but generally here I can at least shove the Soviets out of any problem gains.

Later on I'll be cursing the clear terrain but for the moment, where I have a decent reserve, its in my favour.



Which returns us to Rumania. I need to never let the Soviets build up speed on this sector. So far what was 11A has held the line of the Don, 17A got out of the mess at Stalingrad and is controlling its retreat.

Not shown but 2 corps from 1 PzrA sit to the north. The Soviet stacks are sometimes still weak, they must have logistics problems and I'm looking for the scope to generate a pocket.

The Italian Mtn divisions (stacked) and the Hungarians remain useful, the Rumanians are off on trench duties.

Still hold Kerch.

[loki100]

T84: 24 January 1943

So lets start with the VP as that is driving my choices. In effect, as in the last post I'll let the AI have the whole of the USSR (& Finland) by December 1944. They can only have Rumania if I have deprived it of enough time bonuses on the way to that situation (but this is made worse as I picked up so few earlier on, so I really can't let them have any if I want to come out ahead).

So some glimmer of light as Orel and Voronezh start to go into neutral territory and Kursk should be safe – if I push the AI to 0 time bonus for those 3 I get a grand total of +1 on the exchanges.

Sending some second rate stuff to France has paid off with intermittent +1 VP as a result.

Given where things are, the immediate problems are Rzhev (which I need to hold for 8 more turns) and Stalino (an implausible 25 turns). Ideally I need to hold both till the time limit is expired – just to come out even.



Map things. There are crises of some sort or the other all across the map but I am using 3 different strategies. At Leningrad its an attempt to build a solid wall. 4 Pzr A has tanks again and they are jammed into the front line.

Its not really about Leningrad, when that goes it'll cost me 36 and there is nothing I can do about it. Its the longer term issues of Pskov and Talinin.

The AI has hit me hard and relentlessly here, even though I've reinforced and am now winning the individual exchanges my infantry divisions are shedding 500+ men a turn.



Here, I'm giving up ground but trying to control the situation, As with Leningrad, Tula doesn't matter in itself but it opens the roads to Smolensk and Orel and ends any defence around Voronezh.

9A is being hammered turn after turn, I'm actually mostly winning now but the losses are crippling. This sector gets all my arriving Infantry Divisions but its hard to allocate anything more mobile. 16A has an easier time of it but it can't give up too much space.



Here I am trying to dig a defensive line in the Dombas to help hold Stalino. The southern tier (17A and what was 11A) is actually doing well. AG Don holds the river line with ease and 17A is powerful enough to snap back at anything too optimistic and regularly release formations to refit.

To the north 1 and 2 Pzr A are playing a game of 'chicken'.

I have the bulk of my new Pzr Gr formations here and the better Pzr divisions (plus my Tiger battalions). I'm letting the AI break through and then snipping off the spearheads. This is expensive as I need a strong line to hold the pocket and that means elsewhere the AI makes more gains but so far has paid off. If I possibly can, I really want to weaken the AI here so it can't keep up the pressure.



The chickens so far include 2 Mech and 1 Tank Corps.



Overall losses. Since T80 I've lost 78,000 men (permanent lost) and 500 tanks. The Soviets permanent losses are 200,000 (so not really enough) and 4,000 tanks (which I doubt makes any notable difference).



Overall, I'm just covering my losses, the Soviets are actually down 200k (and a 1,000 tanks). There is nothing in the immediate reserve to really worry me.

Wider point, the AI has few Gds formations. Earlier on I did try to target these but generally its clearly not using spreadsheets to optimise the units that could be upgraded. As is clear, its building tank, mech and rifle corps. It doesn't seem to have any Cavalry Corps. Its airforce seems a plausible mixture of the most modern planes available to it.



I still have some manpower reserve and will get the 'Stalingrad' bonus soon. Challenge is releasing formations from the front line to actually refit.

[loki100]

T88 – 21 February 1943

As usual this is the situation post air phase and before my ground phase for the turn.

Logistics are working fine as before. Struggle to replenish the Pzr divisions but that is a production problem. Infantry divisions fill out if off the line due to the 'Stalingrad' bonus, challenge is getting them off the line to refit.

So lets start with the VP chart – and here we have bits of good news. First a small degree of reinforcement to other Theatres has given me 4 VP – not a lot but its the time bonus for a city taken a turn early (since I play with locked TB I can never recover those units). The AI is out of time for Voronezh, Kursk and Kharkov (so that is a net +1 for me off that set) and Rzhev is starting to tick down.

The next challenge is the three cities lost in the aftermath of Kursk (Orel, Stalino and Smolensk). I think Smolensk is safe – not least I have spent 18 months building a defensive fort belt in the clear hexes there. Orel is some distance (but all clear terrain and 23 turns), Stalino needs to be held for 31 turns if I am to deny the AI any time bonus.

Just taking the 1941 USSR (& Helsinki as that will flip by event), the base value to the AI of what is left is 230 plus a guarenteed time bonus of 18 (Helsinki, Tula and Leningrad – I can't time any of these out). So 248+299 = 547. At the moment there are 83 time pts left, but 7 of these are now out of reach (possibly a small residual at Rzhev), So we're looking at 630.

The potential +72 for Rumania becomes essential to the AI and they will need something from pre-41 German Poland too.

So, the first hints of optimism.



So Map

Leningrad is now a grim stalemate. The Soviets are losing around 30,000 men a turn here making assaults, I'm losing about 4,000 and its forcing me to constantly send fresh units so the front line fomations can refit.

There is no shorter line than what I currently hold and the Soviets have time on their side so the poor terrain is less a barrier to them making serious gains at speed (as it is for the axis in 1941).

Note the defensive line on the Narva. It takes around 3 months to get a level 1 line even with decent supply (the #4 depot provides this) and going on for 6+ months to get to 2 or 3.



16A, 9A, 2A and most of 3 PzrA, really all to defend Rzhev. I can just about rotate weakened units here – the actual intensity of Soviet attacks is not so bad. Once there is no time bonus for Rzhev I can redeploy to a possibly shorter line that might release 3 Pzr A to defend the northern approaches of Orel.



In one sense I've not too badly here but I've basically pulled back a hex a turn (actually more staggered than that). Tula is now near the front and Orel less distant than I'd like. I'm due to lose 4 divisions in the next few turns from here which doesn't help.



1 and 2 Pzr A carry on allowing some Soviet gains and trying to then cut them off, the new PzrGr formations are invaluable for this – but its very wearing on my Pzrs. From experience, the E-W rail net is poor here but I want to protect Orel and Stalino so worth keeping the Soviets back as much as I can.



Heading for a crisis here. So far 17A and what is now AD Kemp (becomes 8A at some stage) have done a good job. Mostly localised counter-attacks but also helping 1 PzrA with its pockets. The problem is how to hold on at Stalino – in turn the Dnepr bend then comes into risk (along with the Crimea). The FZ in the Dnepr bend have been digging for a year and the chosen hexes are the only places the Soviets can get more than one hex to try and force a crossing.



At least 8 turns till the Spring rains and a period of variable weather.

Number Things

I managed a pocket of about 7 Rifle and Cavalry Divisions, of note they were all weak but nothing major. Last 4 turns has seen 123,000 Axis and 350,000 Soviet losses. Among the consequences is it is very hard to rotate my units off the line to refit.

I've lost 550 tanks and destroyed 5,000.



My 550 are being replaced at a rate of 165 per turn, note how low my active pools are. There are a group of Pzr Bns in the reserve and there is no way can I let them take any tanks – pity as they would be useful.



I'm still getting the bonus to replace my non-losses at Stalingrad – for which I am very grateful. But I can't sustain my current losses without seeing units start to weaken. I could cannabilise the LW divisions but for the moment they are very handy in digging trenches.



My theatre boxes, all in surplus (I've just accepted air redeploys so far) and even managed a few time bonuses for N Africa. Most useful, as in the opening is a VP every other turn really adds up.

If I survive due to sending some weak flak formations to France or Finland I'll take that.

[loki100]

T96 – 18 April 1943

Another natural break point as the weather becomes extremely variable over the next 5-6 turns. This turn it was heavy rain around Leningrad, clear but mostly heavy mud elsewhere apart from good weather near the Sea of Azov. Enough to draw a line under the Soviet winter offensive.

So, these maps show where the Soviets were on 8 November (initiative change) – except where they have gained so much that such comparisons are meaningless.

In a way I've lost a lot on this sector, but so far its all been unimportant. Clearly shedding the same again over the Summer of 1943 leads to disaster. In a way Leningrad is unimportant, as the +6 can't be run out of time. Its Pskov and Talinin that worry me.



Much the same here, in a way I've lost a lot but held Rzhev to remove the time bonus (so that will be an even exchange). Smolensk is off image and well defended with fortifications so not too worried.

Once I am pushed back a few more hexes around Rzhev, I'll do a radical retreat to avoid having to defend the clear ground between Rzhev and Vyazma.



So far 2 and 3 Pzr A have inflicted heavy losses for the Soviet gains. I've managed to carve out some pockets as well cut off salients but all at a steady cost. Every now and then I've pulled back 2-3 hexes to gain the space and opportunity for this. In VP terms, Orel is the key point as there is still a time bonus.

I'll give up Voronezh when it suits me as at the moment I can readily rotate fresh defenders in.



Probably the critical sector. Not shown but 1 PzrA sits to the north and is also extracting a heavy toll from the Soviets, including a sequence of hard won small pockets.

Been hit hard by withdrawals to France here.

Its not directly holding the Stalino urban area which worries me. Its that in the end the Soviets will outflank any attempt to cling on. Once that happens, the next defensive line is the Dnepr.



Losses. Since 8 November I've had permanent losses of 500k and 2,800 tanks. In effect, holding the Soviet advance has cost me a lot of Pzrs.

Soviet losses are 1.5m and 23,000 tanks – the AI doesn't really handle the Mech/Tank Corps that well and I've managed to pocket a lot of them.



Air war remains intense. I'm just using GS and auto-intercept apart from some GA if I need to attack a given hex.

The LW is still dominant but is going to weaken due to withdrawals.



Lost units over the last few turns.



So those losses are actually off their OOB (not that it feels like it on the map), They are down a net 800k over the winter battles.



Linked to which, neither of us have much of a reserve. My (non) Stalingrad bonus runs out soon, don't think there are any more Soviet allocations. Clearly as they retake large cities, that will help them – and another reason to try and hold on to a few places like Leningrad and Stalino.



Which returns us to the VP chart. Their current total is irrelevant apart from avoiding any risk of them hitting their sudden victory conditions. What matters is end December 1944 when they have to meet the HWM.

Been over the sums a few times and it comes down to either denying them Rumania (hard as it collapses fairly readily once they are over the border) or time bonuses. Given where we are, I can't see Orel and Stalino being held – but if I can delay both to say T105 or so (say end June 1943) then that gives me a good chance with Smolensk and the Dnepr bend.

Crudely politics and VP make defending the road to Rumania my immediate priority (I only have to hold 50 hexes for 21 months). Actually this makes the point, its all about the time bonuses. I think with some care I can lose Rumania and maybe avoid loss of at least Ploesti.



So that period was better than I feared. From playing the Soviets, the late 42 TOEs are not that wonderful for any of the Corps formations. This persists across most of 1943, but the 1944 stuff is fearsome – at a time when my infantry run out of any value beyond defensive operations.

Or ... I personally don't read too much into doing reasonably well over the opening phase, there is far worse to come.

Another small bit, the mild-winter (43-44) will see lots of non-frozen rivers (good) but very few imposed operational pauses due to blizzards/deep snow (bad). In my vs Axis AI game, that was the phase I broke the LW as it never had a chance to rest while I could rotate formations on/off map to keep up the pressure.

[loki100]

T103 – 6 June 1943

Some wider context. I've had a sequence of 'Italian campaign advance' outcomes and have sent some extra bits to Italy. I have a number of scripted transfers due soon but can't advance them.

N Africa was lost – I think pretty much on schedule.



But the shortfall is so bad that I can't really address it from my on-map sources.



Weather has been the usual variable conditions. So far the AI seems to think I plan to re-enact the Kursk offensive and the entire front south of Rzhev has been static. Suits me as it allows me to steadily fit out the weaker formations and build up the Pzr divisions.

Not the case for AGN where all hell has been let loose. E-Uncle Joe is more than prepared to make minimal gains for murderous losses.

Apart from a probe at Borodino, all that is around Leningrad. AGN has committed its last reserves simply to pull out battered formations to refit. If the AI attacks at Staraya Russa (which was covered by my mobile units) then I am in deep trouble.

Earlier on I won a battle 1-20 and my losses were such that my defending division routed.



So pushed back, still holding onto the urban belt along the Narva. Massive LW reinforcements as the limited allocation was becoming overwhelmed.

Once that line falls, really reliant on poor terrain to control the Soviet gains.



Overall losses appear limited, but all concentrated on a narrow sector.



Logistics system works like clock work now. I have repaired every rail hex I hold and have 2 of the FBD on the Hungarian-Rumanian border (so I can repair some bits when Rumania surrenders). I've disbanded one FBD totally so have one to repair any temporary damage I regain – very unlikely.



OOB. I've added 260,000 Germans and 1,500 tanks as finally the 1943 production increases. All my Panzer divisions are finally well stocked and I'm starting to shed the pre-41 stuff.

Soviets up 200,000 men and 2,000 tanks.



Manpower reserves for both the Germans and the Soviets are low, but I've heavily reinforced my combat formations.



No change on the VP chart. I need to hold Orel for 11 turns (T114) to clear the time bonus which I now think is feasible (unless my entire southern position collapses) and Stalino for 16 turns (T119) which I am less confident over. As in earlier reports I am confident about Kiev and Smolensk (and Kiev will then be a rare net +6 in my favour).

Given what is going on at Leningrad, not at all sure about the AGN objectives (or Finland).

[loki100]

T107 – 4 July 1943

Nope, not going to reenact Kursk.

Couple of important events, first my (non) Stalingrad manpower bonus ends – well I've used it to refit pretty much all my formations but now is not a good time for it to end. Allied landings in Sicily some 3 turns in advance – not a disaster but it does mean more attrition and demands on my resources.



On map, finally stalled the Soviet offensive at Leningrad, which is good but I now have a lot of formations tied up on that sector.

Limited gains in the Valdai and north of Rzhev but broadly that sector is holding.

Some Soviet gains towards Orel (Voronezh was taken) but the main pressure point is north of Stalino.





Nothing decisive but I have enough weakened units to make both refitting and holding the line a challenge. My hope is to gain the chance for the encirclements I managed earlier but its now a lot harder to break through and any units behind their lines become vulnerable. I need to give ground north of the Donets and that might create the space for a mobile battle.



Its not that the AI is winning many battles but that adds up to needing surplus units to allow a degree of rotation.

Over the last 4 turns, I've had permanent losses of 113,000 men and 420 tanks, the Soviets have lost 205,000 men and 4,500 tanks. I suspect they can sustain this exchange better than I can.



Air war starting to slip out of control. I've had to send a number of formations to the reserve to train up inexperienced pilots – no point giving up my fundamental benefit over the VVS.



Some good news here, I've marginally more men on the map than at the start of June while the Soviets are down 100k. Their front line has weak spots but not much I can do unless I can see a way to convert localised attacks into pockets.



Manpower reserves looks good but really low on German manpower now.




Tank pools (active only). Most of the Pzr divisions are fairly strong – its really a case of trying to find a situation where I can gain something for committing them.



So, still not too bad, but the pressure is building. At some stage I am going to have to cede a lot of space in an attempt to relieve the pressure and create the opportunity to strike back. As in late 1942, pockets may help me control the situation – but they become much harder to gain.