GC41 Exalted tests the axis allies

[exalted]

Turn 47

Turn 47, Orel Surrounded, 58 lost soviet units in two turns...I think its going OK.png (4.29 MiB) Viewed 1702 times

All in all the axis advance is doing very well, 58 lost soviet units in two turns most high CV infantry divisions must hurt the soviets and the line does feel thinner now.

Only the advance towards Rostov is going slow.

Orel is surrounded and 1st PzGrp is soon going to start an Voronezh offensive.

Turn 47, Rumanians up to their usual excellence.png (632.66 KiB) Viewed 1702 times

The Rumanians are up to their usual. Poor leaders I think is the cause more than anything else when it comes to winning battles and equipment usually is the matter for the loss ratios. NM which I've raised mostly give them a decent/reasonable CV to loose on poor leader checks and the moral to not rout when retreating

[AlbertN]

In that last combat I suspect it's the lvl 3 fort that screwed over the Romanians.

Their fort busting capability is abysmal in general.

[exalted]

In that last combat I suspect it's the lvl 3 fort that screwed over the Romanians.

Their fort busting capability is abysmal in general.

Is it a lack of pioneers or something else?

Thought the artillery in that one should have made it a pretty decent fight

On to turn 48
Sadly the axis allies simply aren't cutting it for breaking the soviet lines so there will be fewer results of their combats for a few turns until I can get the fighting a bit more fluid or rather if I can get it more fluid since level 1-2 forts are more or less instant builds for the soviets currently it seems.

Turn 48, 11th Army, slow progress and mopup.png (2.33 MiB) Viewed 1648 times

Slow progress for the 11th army, but in part that is because closing up 1st PzGrp's pockets have largely fallen to the axis allies supporting the 11th and the Rumanians aren't up to breaking a fortified line. Might need more germans here but where am I going to get them.

For the remaining fronts preparations are being made for the push towards the next objectives Voronezh and Tula.

Turn 48, 17th Army and 1st PzGroup rests before pushing Voronezh.png (1.78 MiB) Viewed 1648 times

Turn 48, 4th, 6th Army and 2nd PzGroup preparing to push for Tula.png (1.85 MiB) Viewed 1648 times

[exalted]

Turn 49

Turn 49, Happily coloured facist forces advance slowly.png (2.11 MiB) Viewed 1646 times

In the south not much news but the arriving Hungarians have some decent CV and at least the average fort level in front of the 11th army seems to be sinking from 3 to 2 to 1 and now 0 in front of the spearhead. Perhaps we can get somewhere this summer.

Turn 49, 1st PzGrp breakthrough the soviet lines at some difficulty.png (2 MiB) Viewed 1646 times

1st PzGrp strikes through the soviet lines but fail to link up with its Italian and Hungarian minions and only three divisions are surrounded instead of a lot. The soviets are certainly not building in depth in the same was as at the start of the spring offensive.

Turn 49, 2nd PzGrp breakout for Tula surrounding a further 8 divisions.png (2.23 MiB) Viewed 1646 times

Pretty much the same north of Tula a few divisions surrounded and Tula could probably be reached next turn.

[exalted]

Turn 50

Turn 50, Tula looks to be within reach.jpg (152.81 KiB) Viewed 1643 times

Clearing up north of Orel but not pushing towards Tula due to waiting on infantry. Including clearing a surrounded Bryansk.

Turn 50, Voronezh will fall.jpg (148.41 KiB) Viewed 1643 times

1st PzGrp is doing the good job but more than a turn of offensive at a time is pretty much impossible.

A lot of divisions surrounded however.

Turn 50, Brave Italians show the way..jpg (171.01 KiB) Viewed 1643 times

In the south the motorized italians and pz's of 11th army break through for the first time during the offensive and maybe even here with the abundance of soviet rifle divisions some ground can be taken. Once more however the flipping of hexes is more important than combat capabilities.

[exalted]

Turn 51
The offensive of summer 42 unfolds probably better than I thought it would as the 1st PzGrp pushes not recklessly but certainly close to.

Turn 51, Tula withiin reach Ryazan on the horizon.jpg (215.88 KiB) Viewed 1640 times

Still there are problems that one hex faced 3 !!!! attacks before it fell due to the problems with accurate CV and moving CV for motorized units.

Turn 51, Cleaning up pockets.jpg (193.67 KiB) Viewed 1640 times

Not much news mostly the axis allies need help to take hexes with 2-3 surrounded soviet divisions even when the odds are pretty good and german divisions are sent to help mostly.

Turn 51, What the hell is happening here.jpg (209.82 KiB) Viewed 1640 times

Not sure about the mix around Rostov the axis are making progress but is it good progress and the mix of axis allies and germans is utterly confusing to use but my counter density certainly is rather nice sadly so is the soviet one.

[exalted]

Turn 52

Turn 52, Rostovs outskirt reached..jpg (192.11 KiB) Viewed 1636 times

Hey we got panzer's next to rostov, maybe we can do this but Stalingrad is probably a pipedream, so is Caucasus if I don't shift one of the panzer groups with actually tanks in them.

Turn 52, Voronezh is only on the other side of the river.jpg (169.16 KiB) Viewed 1636 times

2nd PzGrp strikes out but once more isn't quite capable to close the gap to allies, but we are probably going to surround Voronezh next turn gaining full points for it which means I don't really need more VP except for a decent high water mark which I don't really expect to need. The smart action would be to start limiting offensive operations that don't explicitly destroy soviet units but what would be the fun in that.

Turn 52, AI pullback on the flank helps and Tula surrounded.jpg (221.36 KiB) Viewed 1636 times

The AI did one of its less expected pull backs one which I think was seriously ill advised since it will free up a lot of my infantry to support 2nd pzGrp. Tula is also surrounded and both Ryazan and possibly Moscow is going to be pretty close soon.

[exalted]

Going to do a few turns quickly since they mostly include maneuvers by pzGrp1 and 2 while 11th army struggles on around Rostov.

Turn 53

Turn 53, Tula surrounded lots of free land taken by the infantry.jpg (286.16 KiB) Viewed 1606 times

Further Pullback by the soviet AI and Tula surrounded this is going like it was on rails on this front.

Turn 54

Turn 54, Voronezh surrounded...but what are we seeing in the south a stalingrad situation.jpg (159.07 KiB) Viewed 1606 times

Tula surrounded but what is happening in the south...that looks like a line of italians holding the frontline....how was I thinking here...

Turn 55

Turn 55, 2nd PzGrp has to think about Moscow or Tambov what is reasonable, what is possible.jpg (236.01 KiB) Viewed 1606 times

PzGrp 1 breaks out from north of Tula an reaches Ryzan and the defences on the approach to Moscow. This is looking too good to be true,

Turn 56

Turn 56, Rostov teniously surrounded.jpg (207.93 KiB) Viewed 1606 times

Rostov is surrounded but the AI should break the encirclement but doesn't.

[exalted]

Turn 56, Ryazan falls without an encirclement....jpg (266.26 KiB) Viewed 1602 times

Ryzan also falls to a frontal assault that I chanced as the CV's looked nice. Gods PzGrp1 has finished its seasonal objectives what should I do now?

Turn 56, Voronezh has fallen but look at that axis allies attacked and retreating.jpg (162.09 KiB) Viewed 1602 times

As expected the AI pushes some Italians around but at least they don't rout like the used to, even if holding corpses with 50ish CV out is not in the realm of the possible for axis allies.

Turn 57, 1st PzGrp dash towards Tambov from the south but only a pair of soviet divisions surrounded.jpg (151.17 KiB) Viewed 1602 times

1st PzGrp dashes for its last objective around Tambov which should basically put me in a good place for 42 in general.

Turn 57, Axis allies decides that quantity has a quality of its own....jpg (92.16 KiB) Viewed 1602 times

Axis allies take a page from the soviet playbook and counterattack enmass. The actual result is somewhat underwhelming...

[exalted]

Still on turn 57

Turn 57, Rostov is surrounded and forces build up around it, armor rests for a dash towards stalingrad..jpg (162.86 KiB) Viewed 1601 times

Well Rostov is surrounded and suicidal axis allies dash to link up with V Rum Corps out of Kerch. A player would have broken the encirclement and sometimes the AI does these odd moves where it should have sacrificed a unit to break encirclement.

Turn 58

Turn 58, 11th Army Re-tasked with Stalingrad soviet counterattack on the italian, hungarian lines....jpg (202.2 KiB) Viewed 1601 times

11th Army is retasked with Stalingrad as Rostov has fallen but it is probably not possible without additional resources.

Turn 58, Hummm...maybe Hungarians shouldn't fight 70k angry soviets....jpg (85.96 KiB) Viewed 1601 times

Hungarian Corps are impossible to fight with any combination of normal axis allies as seen here

Turn 58, By the combined power of PzGrp 1 and 2 the soviets will fall....jpg (240.13 KiB) Viewed 1601 times

The two pzGrp's make contact putting a large number of soviets encircled. Not a bad finale of the 42 pz offensive. Just too early now I need something else to do before blizzard.

[exalted]

Turn 58, Whow that is an unoptimal line...lets make it worse....jpg (197.88 KiB) Viewed 1578 times

Basically at the end of turn 58 my lines look ridiculous...the options now are basically make it worse or consolidate where it is reasonable attempting to make it shorter.

Well that is no fun so we'll try to push some more until mud gets going. This will likely make 42 winter a horror show for the axis but who knows.

Lets continue at some speed because mostly nothing all that interesting is happening its mostly German units shifting the soviets and the occasional axis allies supporting a german attack with likely and reasonable outcomes both loss and wins.

Turn 60, Axis Allies trooping on.png (915.86 KiB) Viewed 1578 times

Turn 60 the axis allies link up in the Caucasus still I don't have enough room to keep anything in this area during the winter, I need at least a few more hexes in an easterly direction.

Turn 60, Some happy rumanians.png (618.77 KiB) Viewed 1578 times

Also some progress on the Stalingrad front even if it is very hard going.

Turn 60, Stalingrad front looking kind of promising.png (2.06 MiB) Viewed 1578 times

[exalted]

Turn 61

Turn 61, The Axis allies conquer caucasus one hex at a time....png (728.9 KiB) Viewed 1576 times

More slow progress in the Caucasus but note that I've already taken the precaution of a line of forts around Rostov and the ones around Kerch has been in place for a long time now.

Turn 61, What we can possibly get to stalingrad.png (1.79 MiB) Viewed 1576 times

Stalingrad still looks kind of possible but its probably an illusion my CV in this area is abysmal even with a super depot close by.

Turn 63, Stalingrad is within reach or is it.png (1.86 MiB) Viewed 1576 times

Turn 63. Slow advance on the approach to Stalingrad but not much else, as the rest of my forces rest.

Turn 64, PzGrp 1 and 2 are retasked with a winter offensive towards Moscow..png (2.48 MiB) Viewed 1576 times

Turn 64. Rested pzGrp 1 and 2 attempt a thrust towards Moscow and it looked promising for a very very short while.

[exalted]

Turn 65

Turn 65, Lets be real...this is just absurd CV 91, 98, 73...welll.png (1.87 MiB) Viewed 1572 times

Look at those CV's there are several Corps around Moscow with a CV of 20-70, while my average Mot/PzDiv CV is probably less than 10 with a few right below 20. PzGrp 1 and PzGrp 2 simply put can forget surrounding Moscow and the offensive is pointless in this direction.

My feeling is that the Soviet CV is probably a bit high this early but it can be not being used to 120% AI yet.

At the start of the next turn lets think about our chances, while my HWM is pretty nice I think its a bit low 657, I'd like closer to 700 to feel completely satisfied.

Turn 66, Advantage lost by the Axis.png (1.1 MiB) Viewed 1572 times

Regardless of how many divisions are being destroyed the Soviet have increased its on map forces to 5.3 millions while the axis forces are about where they where at the start of 42 with 4.9 million. My manpower pool looks good at 700k vs 14k for the soviets but I'm not going to kill 100k a turn from now on so the Soviets are going to reach 6 millions I think which usually means that 43 is going to be a tough year.

I have no clue with the air war but my feeling is its going pretty badly after a decent opening in the early weeks of the 42 offensive.

Well I'll continue the AAR but I think my position is quite a bit worse than if I had axis allies in the TB's and germans on the map even if it has worked up to now.

[exalted]

Turn 73
Mud covering the front means not much happens from turn 66 - 73 felt like a lot of mud but perhaps it is normal, so nothing happening more or less for those turns.

Turn 73, 6 million angry soviets.jpg (50.49 KiB) Viewed 1516 times

But as expected there are now 6 million soviets on the map so most likely the axis is going to have to be on the defensive from now on or possibly some limited offensives.

Turn 73, Northern Front, secure right....jpg (645.08 KiB) Viewed 1516 times

Not much new in the north but 1st pzGrp and 2nd pzGrp traded some elements mostly all SS, Mot div remain with 2nd PzGrp near moscow on the vague hope that they do better in deeper snow while 1st pzGrp bugged out to rest and refit around Rostov and probably make a winter offensive in the caucasus with hopefully less blizzard and less snow in the way. For fun I actually ran a turn attacking the soviets around Moscow before doing so and ended up in several fights where what I thought where high CV in the 60-70 realm quickly increased to 100+. No way am I taking Moscow with less than two inf armies and my two pzgrp which would mean withdrawing from Stalingrad and Caucasus and not something done in a few turns.

Turn 73, Stalingrad front...so close but no bleep way am I getting there.jpg (501.29 KiB) Viewed 1516 times

I've actually gotten closer to Stalingrad then I thought but still I think those two hexes are going to be very tough going. I'm going to attempt it but it will be very hard and the city isn't going to fall without encirclement which seems even less likely.

Turn 73, Caucasus Front, Krasnodar surrounded, Maikop in reach maybe..jpg (286.77 KiB) Viewed 1516 times

Most of pzGrp1 has rested around Rostov through the mud season with 1 corps sent to help take Krasnodar, the rest will be released to collapse the soviets in the Caucasus if possible but likely the AI will send some high CV units to the front right quick so we'll se where we get the goal is cutting some rail lines and taking Maikop during the winter.

[exalted]

So during Turn 74 I did some ill advised things which included not going with my gut feeling that german offensive potential was now only slightly higher than zero.

Turn 74, PzGrp1 starts a winter offensive.jpg (277.28 KiB) Viewed 1507 times

PzGrp1 did some enthusiastic soviet bashing towards cutting of rail lines and hopefully maybe take Maikop during the winter...this may possibly be possible due to the supply limitations of operating in the Caucasus. At least no horde of 20+ corps level formations appeared without warning yet. Still it would not be easy...holding Krasnodar to turn 86 might by itself be impossible.

Turn 74, Stalingrad front...well I got there what now.jpg (429.99 KiB) Viewed 1507 times

I actually reached Stalingrad...not that I will take the city but at least we got there

Now the over optimistic axis player turned in and let the AI go to work.

While the AI lost 100k troops during its turn it also pushed a dozen or two units into retreat also routing the first Rumanian unit of the campaign only Italians have done it before

For fun I'll calculate just how well the different nations preform during the winter campaign.

Germans had 72 fights gaining an average of 106% of their starting CV.

Germans had 3 fights with axis allies participating gaining an average of 92% of their starting CV.

Italians had 2 fights gaining an average of 56% of their starting CV.

Hungarians had 4 fights gaining an average of 33% of their starting CV.

Rumanians had a 14 fights gaining an average of 25% of their starting CV.

I'll continue tracking it during the winter which will probably have a lot of fighting for all nations.

Also I think the game is at least somewhat bugged since I had a reinforcing inf division adding 1173 CV to one fight not that I complain but it is about 2-5 times what it should add.

[Zebtucker12]

Whats up with those cvs might there be some hidden fault with the axis allies?

[loki100]

I'm not totally sure I understand your numbers. Are you really saying that on average the Germans doubled their initial cv by the end of the battle? Consistently, so I presume plenty more with even more inflation.

there is a known display issue that over-states the attacker cv (ie up into the thousands) if the defender dips to 0 or just above. That can happen in a very one-sided battle where all or nearly all the elements end the battle disrupted.

[Stamb]

106% for a Germans means only 6% CV increase from a starting point.
And I wrote that in 99% of cases Axis allies CV is fake, but you was not believing me, loki.
And even in this GC with super buffed allies there is a same pattern.

[loki100]

maybe what he means but its not what he's written he says "gaining an average of 106%". I'm a statistician and that means double, if he means it jumps 6% between start and finish that is a very different number

matters since this is meant to be an exploration of what happens when you change things?

[exalted]

Maybe I wasn't clear enough and english is a second language so for technical things it can be a bit dodgy.

The 106% percent mean that they got 1.06 times their display CV.

While axis allies averages are a bit less yes Axis allies display cv is completely spurious to the degree I've followed it so far.