A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

[Curtis Lemay]

Interesting thoughts on secret missions and warfare. So if being detected can simply be brushed off without alerting anyone, why did Japan bother with secrecy and sailing via the northern Pacific? A naval task force centred on six fleet carriers a day from Pearl... yep that's a training mission if ever I saw one.....

You've ignored my point about the Malaya invasion forces being detected long before they arrived, with no effective action taken by anyone. Clearly, the Allies were in a peace-time intel condition. If the carriers are detected somewhere between Japan and Hawaii and nothing happens, that's going to make Pearl even less able to be alerted. If it's detected again in a week, how will any intel guy get the brass to listen when the same thing happened the week before and nothing happened?

But I notice you make no comment on the carriers and the number of carriers. You brush this off quite airily because the Kido Butai could obviously afford to spend the month of November/December sailing up and down the North Pacific.

You seemed to have settled on two. I'm fine with that, but the Japanese commanders might make a different decision.

You seem fixated on Kamikazes.... strange

I don't think you've missed the point, but willfully don't see a problem in combat troops being endlessly loaded, put to sea for a day or two, then turned around sent back to port, repeat rinse cycle. You have also downplayed the possibility of detection being an issue so no point furthering that.

Not strange. Clinching. These were extremely dedicated fanatics. Being at sea a little longer would not be any sort of real issue.

Warfare is so simple innit?

No. It's really complicated. If I don't calculate the number of screw rotations required of each ship for the round trip (pursuant to how much grease their screw shafts will require) why, I must be in La La Land.

[Curtis Lemay]

Sadly I feel we are back to the invasion of Spain territory. If a wargame says it can be done then it can be done right?

If it's a well-designed wargame, I can't think of any better source. For a discussion like this, it definitely is. We're not actually planning to physically sail carriers ourselves.

And as with Spain, so with Hawaii. No, you've described nothing. You've made a few high level statements, largely divorced from reality, with nothing to support them. Which islands can Zeros reach the Hawaiian islands from? How do those Zeros reach the islands in the first place? Where are the aircraft coming from? What's the timescale for all this manoeuvring?

Again, play any of the many Pacific War sims and see for yourself. The ground forces come from the PI operation. The air forces would be shifted from the eastern-most islands of the historical defense line.

Oh, and I was right about Spain.

And all the questions regarding supplying, fuelling, repairing etc still won't go away.

Japanese resources are finite. They have a lot to do - and nothing more important than securing the oil of the NEI. But....

That oil is being secured. Only the PI operation is being postponed.

[RangerJoe]

Interesting thoughts on secret missions and warfare. So if being detected can simply be brushed off without alerting anyone, why did Japan bother with secrecy and sailing via the northern Pacific? A naval task force centred on six fleet carriers a day from Pearl... yep that's a training mission if ever I saw one.....

You've ignored my point about the Malaya invasion forces being detected long before they arrived, with no effective action taken by anyone. Clearly, the Allies were in a peace-time intel condition. If the carriers are detected somewhere between Japan and Hawaii and nothing happens, that's going to make Pearl even less able to be alerted. If it's detected again in a week, how will any intel guy get the brass to listen when the same thing happened the week before and nothing happened?

But I notice you make no comment on the carriers and the number of carriers. You brush this off quite airily because the Kido Butai could obviously afford to spend the month of November/December sailing up and down the North Pacific.

You seemed to have settled on two. I'm fine with that, but the Japanese commanders might make a different decision.

You seem fixated on Kamikazes.... strange

I don't think you've missed the point, but willfully don't see a problem in combat troops being endlessly loaded, put to sea for a day or two, then turned around sent back to port, repeat rinse cycle. You have also downplayed the possibility of detection being an issue so no point furthering that.

Not strange. Clinching. These were extremely dedicated fanatics. Being at sea a little longer would not be any sort of real issue.

Warfare is so simple innit?

No. It's really complicated. If I don't calculate the number of screw rotations required of each ship for the round trip (pursuant to how much grease their screw shafts will require) why, I must be in La La Land.

Yes, the Malaya invasion forces were detected but what were the Allies supposed to do? Declare war on Japan? Then the Pearl Harbor invasion and the Philippine operations were not needed at all. After all, American public sentiment was still against joining the war and the Allies declaring war on Japan would have been a gift to the Axis powers.

The Japanese switched call signs with the Carriers and some destroyers. Signal Intelligence if it had figured out the call signs before would have thought that the Japanese carriers were in the Home Island area. So there was no need for any alarm about the Japanese troop movements. Also, the Allies had not figured out the use of concentrated Aircraft Carriers as a battle tactic yet, that came later. The battleship force was still considered by many to be the effective striking force of naval warfare among the Allied nations and many in the Japanese Navy still held to that belief.

[RangerJoe]

Sadly I feel we are back to the invasion of Spain territory. If a wargame says it can be done then it can be done right?

If it's a well-designed wargame, I can't think of any better source. For a discussion like this, it definitely is. We're not actually planning to physically sail carriers ourselves.

And as with Spain, so with Hawaii. No, you've described nothing. You've made a few high level statements, largely divorced from reality, with nothing to support them. Which islands can Zeros reach the Hawaiian islands from? How do those Zeros reach the islands in the first place? Where are the aircraft coming from? What's the timescale for all this manoeuvring?

Again, play any of the many Pacific War sims and see for yourself. The ground forces come from the PI operation. The air forces would be shifted from the eastern-most islands of the historical defense line.

Oh, and I was right about Spain.

And all the questions regarding supplying, fuelling, repairing etc still won't go away.

Japanese resources are finite. They have a lot to do - and nothing more important than securing the oil of the NEI. But....

That oil is being secured. Only the PI operation is being postponed.

Sims are just sims. You were wrong about Spain and still are. You apparently have no practical experience with actual military unit movements nor logistical supply trains and their problems. You also apparently don't like to read about information and experience that change your mind.

[TulliusDetritus]

Sims are just sims. You were wrong about Spain and still are.

I remember that discussion. I cannot understand how the nine divisions (as per niehorster.org) of the Spanish army (a devastated, poor backward state) could have resisted more than one or two weeks. Turkey and her circa 40 divisions, that seems more serious.

The Balkans were as poor and backward, and yet the Germans cut through like a knife through butter... you guys are using the logistical alibi when it suits you eh

You are the extremists and dogmatics with your "impossible" stuff. No offense intended though

[RangerJoe]

Yes, logistics. Narrow roads, no direct rail line from German occupied France into Spain. If the Vichy French would have allowed Germany to attack through their territory, what would have the Vichy French fleet and colonies have done? Honour above all . . .

As far as only 9 divisions go, they were being redirected to the Spanish frontier with German occupied France. There were also many people with military experience along with people who had explosive training from mining. I am sure that the British could have spared a few Boys 55 caliber antitank rifles to shoot at the top of the Mark I and Mark II Panzer tanks, along with the less numerous Mark III and Mark IV panzers. Not to mention a few mortars plus gas bombs being dropped from above. All that would have to have been done is to blow up a culvert to have an obstacle that would have had to be fixed.

[Curtis Lemay]

Sims are just sims. You were wrong about Spain and still are.

I remember that discussion. I cannot understand how the nine divisions (as per niehorster.org) of the Spanish army (a devastated, poor backward state) could have resisted more than one or two weeks. Turkey and her circa 40 divisions, that seems more serious.

The Balkans were as poor and backward, and yet the Germans cut through like a knife through butter... you guys are using the logistical alibi when it suits you eh

You are the extremists and dogmatics with your "impossible" stuff. No offense intended though

+1
A lone voice of reason.

[warspite1]

You've ignored my point about the Malaya invasion forces being detected long before they arrived, with no effective action taken by anyone. Clearly, the Allies were in a peace-time intel condition. If the carriers are detected somewhere between Japan and Hawaii and nothing happens, that's going to make Pearl even less able to be alerted. If it's detected again in a week, how will any intel guy get the brass to listen when the same thing happened the week before and nothing happened?

You seemed to have settled on two. I'm fine with that, but the Japanese commanders might make a different decision.

Not strange. Clinching. These were extremely dedicated fanatics. Being at sea a little longer would not be any sort of real issue.

warspite1

I've not ignored your point. You are referring to what happened in real life. But you are proposing something different. Your idea that the KB, the invasion fleets for Malaya and elsewhere can be placed on war footing, sail around for a bit, return, unload, load, sail around for a bit.... it's simply ridiculous. As for detection. You think the US are going to think "training exercise" when a six fleet carrier task force is spotted one day's sailing from Pearl? And, having retreated, they are then spotted again a week or so later?

You claim that the Japanese timetable for going to war can be linked to when some US carriers are in Pearl and the various invasion forces can co-ordinate with certainty under these truly bizarre conditions.....

We know from the Spain conversation (when you evidenced a total - and very surprising - lack of the most basic WWII knowledge) that detail is not your thing. Even when I try and help you out with some real life carrier movements, you can't use that to develop your argument. Instead, having bizarrely claimed that your yo yo through the North Pacific is being done purely to ensure the US carriers are at home, you now suggest the Japanese may think differently!! So what is this great re-working of Pearl designed to achieve? 1, 2 3 carriers or none?

We are talking about the Japanese decision to go to war in an environment when the oil and strategic material embargo is hurting. How long do the KB (and other forces) spend tooling around expending oil before Japan says we have to do this?

You know what? Some detail really wouldn't go amiss.

All Japanese are 'dedicated fanatics' yeah? I am surprised you didn't say Supermen. You know there are many cases of Japanese sentiment that its all about the will - from Nomonhan to Hiroshima. Ultimately that is what warfare is all about right? Look at what that thinking did at Nomonhan, at Midway, at Guadalcanal at Imphal/Kohima etc etc etc.

[warspite1]

If it's a well-designed wargame, I can't think of any better source. For a discussion like this, it definitely is. We're not actually planning to physically sail carriers ourselves.

Again, play any of the many Pacific War sims and see for yourself. The ground forces come from the PI operation. The air forces would be shifted from the eastern-most islands of the historical defense line.

That oil is being secured. Only the PI operation is being postponed.

warspite1

You can't think of a better source than a wargame. The clue is right there. But I guess this explains why, in the Spain thread, you got angry because I kept quoting from a book. What was that book? Yep, it was a book using primary German sources from those that were there and were responsible for actually planning military operations. According to you, you believe that Spain would surrender if Madrid fell (despite this not being true of many countries in WWII) because that was rule 37(b) in some game you played. But when I recounted what the German planners said about Spain, it's railway or terrain or whatever, you refused to accept it and just seemed to get angry that I was quoting from experienced German staff officers. You did the same with Greece and the study by the American military.

And still you won't provide any detail as to what spare aircraft the Japanese had for this spiffing wheeze to fly to Hawaiian islands to reduce Oahu. You haven't said:

- what was available in the Eastern perimeter that wasn't being allocated for operations already?
- How they got to HI in the first place
- The timing for getting them to HI in the context of this yo-you attack plan. And presumably you've allowed for the fact that the fighters need to be delivered first?
- How they were serviced, repaired, re-inforced, fuelled and armed once there.
- How about some detail on which islands would need to be taken and what airfield/port capacity they had. How about some detail on how the equipment/fuel needed to keep the planes flying once there, was going to be delivered to the airfield?

You know, how about some detail?

Remember, in your scenario the only thing that has changed is maybe, possibly, a carrier or two has been sunk at Pearl (but you won't be clear on that). The US air units have been bolstered by the survivng aircraft from whatever carriers were possibly perhaps in Pearl. You said the KB were not being whittled down because they had long gone - but won't say when or indeed give any sort of timetable for this operation.

The point is, the oil may be secured. But equally, given this nonsensical yo-yoing across the Northern Pacific, the Japanese may well have mucked that up by a combination of leaving the PI relatively unharmed and giving the Allies more warning of what was about to happen. I say again, a six fleet-carrier task force with two fast battleships and destroyers, being located a day or so from Pearl. And you think that is going to be passed off as a 'training exercise'? Even if this resulted in slightly enhanced vigilence on the part of the US forces on Pearl, well we know the likely effect on the Japanese raid - as witnessed by the increased losses in wave 2.

End of the day, you've suggested this operation would have been better for Japan. All I've asked is that you provide some detail to support what you've said. Stating that some troops go to some islands and some planes get landed and I've proved it works because some game or other says it will, isn't much of a reasoned argument is it?

[Edmon]

This conversation is starting to feel quite hostile to me.

May I remind everyone: Your posts should not make the suggestion that the person that disagrees with you is an idiot/ignorant/etc.

If you are going to use direct "this is a fact, you are mistaken" type writing, I would hesitate to suggest that source(s) are linked to back up such statements.

Thanks guys.

[TulliusDetritus]

As far as only 9 divisions go, they were being redirected to the Spanish frontier with German occupied France.

Are you sure about that? Hard to believe some divisions were not left in the south, east or Madrid itself...

Do you want another logistical impossibility? Burma invasion in 1942. The real logistical problem is this: Spain would have fallen yes or yes. Now what will you be doing with this devastated, backward state? Feed her population? Good luck. Raise let's say 20 divisions (that Germany will need to arm, feed and clothe...)? Good luck again.

It's like the Caledonia (Scotland for the Romans) dilemma. Of course the legions could have conquered the land in one or two afternoons... but was it worth it? NO.

no direct rail line from German occupied France into Spain

Eh?? Bordeaux-Irun...

[Aurelian]

The Hawaiian islands were well beyond the maximum operating environment of Japan’s logistical capabilities. Even if they could have landed a sizable infantry unit on the Hawaiian islands, they would have been unable to ensure its continual supply and, most importantly, protection against a US counterattack.

Eventually - and way sooner than ideal - whatever fleet landed the assaulting force and screened it against any initial counter-attacks would have to return to Japanese home waters for resupply. At that point the US military - even in its 1941/1942 state - would be able isolate and destroy the invaders. By the end of 1941, troop strength rose from 15,000 to 25,000. Using troops landing from Japanese DDs to invade and occupy parts of Hawaii? Didn't work out for them at Guadalcanal.....

Plus the only way Japan could have enough transports and escorts available would be to postpone the invasions of the Dutch East Indies and New Guinea, maybe even Malaya as well, allowing the British, Australians and Dutch to reinforce them substantially.

The Japanese would have to invade Wake and Midway at the same time since these islands could not be left to interdict the Japanese supply route to Hawaii.

As we're talking what ifs, the US fleet would operate out of west coast ports, which are closer to the islands than Japan. US participation in Operation Torch is cancelled as every US ship needed is sent to the Pacific as well as the troops used for that operation.

[TulliusDetritus]

US participation in Operation Torch is cancelled as every US ship needed is sent to the Pacific as well as the troops used for that operation.

And there goes the Germany First policy. Hitler and Mussolini are rubbing their hands.

[sPzAbt653]

This conversation is starting to feel quite hostile to me.

I'll chime in once again that as usual, there are two posters here that are nothing more than trolling spammers of useless wastes of paragraph after paragraph of baseless opinions that are designed for nothing more than baiting arguements. BAN them please!

[Curtis Lemay]

The Hawaiian islands were well beyond the maximum operating environment of Japan’s logistical capabilities. Even if they could have landed a sizable infantry unit on the Hawaiian islands, they would have been unable to ensure its continual supply and, most importantly, protection against a US counterattack.

Grigby's Pacific War says you're wrong.

Eventually - and way sooner than ideal - whatever fleet landed the assaulting force and screened it against any initial counter-attacks would have to return to Japanese home waters for resupply. At that point the US military - even in its 1941/1942 state - would be able isolate and destroy the invaders. By the end of 1941, troop strength rose from 15,000 to 25,000. Using troops landing from Japanese DDs to invade and occupy parts of Hawaii? Didn't work out for them at Guadalcanal.....

No fleet would have to remain. The island's air assets could enable it to defend itself. Remember: The carriers were in port in this version. They're sunk. The US can't fly fighters to Hawaii. They have to be shipped. The Japs can (zero is very long ranged). The situation will be very bad for the US for quite a while. Long enough to render Pearl a cinder. That's a big win for risking a few battalions and some aircraft. Only if they actually want to capture Oahu would really big forces be required. That would be an operational decision far down the road, dependent upon how things go for each side.

Plus the only way Japan could have enough transports and escorts available would be to postpone the invasions of the Dutch East Indies and New Guinea, maybe even Malaya as well, allowing the British, Australians and Dutch to reinforce them substantially.

I only delay the PI invasion. And all we have initially on the islands are a few battalions and aircraft - not as huge of a burden as you're thinking.

The Japanese would have to invade Wake and Midway at the same time since these islands could not be left to interdict the Japanese supply route to Hawaii.

Then why didn't they interdict the Pearl operation, historically? You've got your geography confused. This topic can't be understood without experience with a good PW simulation.

As we're talking what ifs, the US fleet would operate out of west coast ports, which are closer to the islands than Japan. US participation in Operation Torch is cancelled as every US ship needed is sent to the Pacific as well as the troops used for that operation.

It still will be a very long time before the US are in position to take back the islands. By then Pearl and anything in it will be destroyed. Big delay in US war plans.

[RangerJoe]

The US Government sent a lot of weapons to the United Kingdom in 1940. Yes, it was older equipment but new troops had to train with broom handles.

This attempt to capture the Hawaiian Islands also supposes that the DEI will be attacked after the US sues for peace, presuming that would also end the US oil embargo, then the Dutch embargo would ether be moot or ended, Then the Soviets might be attacked from the East or at the very least would not be able to transfer as many units West.

[Orm]

If the Japanese wait for the carriers to be in Hawaii, then what if the battleships left before the carriers arrive? How would the Japanese strike force react then?

[warspite1]

If the Japanese wait for the carriers to be in Hawaii, then what if the battleships left before the carriers arrive? How would the Japanese strike force react then?

warspite1

Orm I’m not sure why you are asking pertinent questions here. Apparently Japan has all the time and the resources (inc. oil) in the world to be completely flexible on when they start the war. The KB are also apparently under no danger of being detected no matter how many times they yo yo along in the North Pacific, because the Japanese simply claim “training exercise” no matter where and when they are detected. So whatever you say, whatever you ask the answer is the same;

“Some ships” and “some planes” will defeat whatever the Americans do. And why do we know this? Because a wargame says so. Political considerations, logistical considerations, operational and tactical considerations? Nah, we don’t need any of that - that’s boring right?


Edit: North Pacific - not Atlantic (must have been over excited after watching Spurs somehow beat Marseille.....)

[Orm]

I find this discussion interesting. As I did with previous discussions. What if there was 2 carries in harbour, but a majority of the battleships had left. Would even the Japanese Admiralty, back then. have thought that was a better target?

[warspite1]

I find this discussion interesting. As I did with previous discussions. What if there was 2 carries in harbour, but a majority of the battleships had left. Would even the Japanese Admiralty, back then. have thought that was a better target?

warspite1

I am assuming this question has nothing to do with the notion that the KB could sail up and down the North Pacific for weeks or months on end in order to determine when the Japanese Empire go to war with the USA, the Dutch and the British Empire. But is instead a thought provoking question on whether the Japanese had really understood that the carrier was the key combat vessel in the Pacific and the day of the battlewagon - as the primary capital ship - was over.

If the Japanese had the choice, I think they were still wedded to the battleship as the key weapon. Yes, they understood the value of the carrier in the expanse of the Pacific, but actions later in the war perhaps suggested they still had the idea that the decisive battle would be fought between battleships.

But on the other hand, the lack of use of the battleships later on could be because of the lack of oil - Midway took a heavy toll on oil stocks.

An interesting question indeed.


Edit: Lol Pacific not Atlantic - again........