Ridiculous

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

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Tristanjohn
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Tristanjohn »

ORIGINAL: John B

Both in UV and WitP I've tended to discount the reportss of damage inflicted on Jap CVs unless they actually show up sunk in the daily intel reports. Time and again I've seen one apparently take damage certain to send it to the bottom, but a couple of weeks later its back.

I'd agree that in '42 the Allies have to get a good slice of luck to win a carrier battle. I think only once in UV have I managed to deal the Jap CV's a knock -out blow that early on.

Same here. I did sink one IJN CV in either scenario 17 or 18, I forget which, then watched the Japanese gut each and every one of my CVs and just about everything else afloat as well. Of course the scenario in question was heavily weighted toward Japanese fortunes and it was my first time out with the game. I hadn't learned to be ultra cautious yet with my naval assets.
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Mr.Frag »

What was the actual result, then? Close to what you posted?

I posted the actual result at the bottom of the AAR.
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Twotribes »

Corral sea was we had major damage to a carrier and damaged a CVL right?
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Tristanjohn »

No. Lady Lex bit it, with a mere CVL (Shoho) added up in our ledger. We did, however, put two CVs effectively out of commission (Shokaku direct damage to the ship, Zuikaku's air assets were in a shambles) so that they couldn't participate at Midway.
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Erik Rutins
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Erik Rutins »

Tristanjohn,
ORIGINAL: Tristanjohn
But that's just the point, Erik. It matters not what you think or I think or somebody else thinks, for history is the only and absolute judge of what was possible and unless WitP was designed to be kind of fantasic prism through which we might reinterpret history then historical results need to be the norm, not some rarity which pleases one opinion or the other.

Put another way, given Japanese and American actions at Midway the result was not so hard to believe, and while I understand why, at this scale, the game cannot hope to model all of the myriad detail which went into realizing that result, at the least the game model ought to recognize and make an effort to emulate that historical result. As with UV, this is apparently not the case before us.

Just to clarify what might have been unclear in my comments - I actually think Midway is quite unusual and I meant that if you ran the battle 50 times, I'd expect to see the historical results perhaps once or twice. The rest would be much closer to an even exchange. Any number of analyses I've read indicate that by all measurements, Midway was a fluke (a very good fluke for the US, but still).

Regards,

- Erik
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rroberson
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by rroberson »

Well I finally had the heart to boot the turn up. [:@] Not only did I not get a strike off thanks to whatever "poor luck" I had, but my carriers both sank outright. I need to play the Japanese in a game. Playing the allies is depressing.
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Erik Rutins »

ORIGINAL: Tristanjohn
Interesting, But with all those hits (assuming 1000-lb. bombs, and even allowing for FOW) both IJN flattops ought to be long gone, not floating around out there with some sort of chance for survival, don't you think?

Anyway, as with UV I somehow get this feeling that this kind of result will not somehow crop up in my own games, just from replays posted by others. [:)]

Well, Fog of War is a _very_ variable thing in WitP. Those ten hits could be one, two or five, but likely more like two or three. Also, rom what was posted, given Japanese damage control, Shokaku is toast and Zuikaku is almost certainly a goner as well, so I think it works out.

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- Erik
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Tankerace »

I feel for ya man... I feel for ya.
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Erik Rutins »

ORIGINAL: rroberson
I dont have pre execution files unfortunetly...due to the football season I have been a bit haphazard about my saving routines. I have sent xargun my post execution file. The only concern I have is that i somehow put everybody on naval search, I tend to doubt that since I double checked everything before i executed. If reiyc has the preex file I can duplicate it and sent it to you. Like i told reiyc the show will go on. I just want this fixed so it doesnt ruin future acts.

Ok, if you guys do dig that up (and I hope you do), please send it in.

Regards,

- Erik
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Mr.Frag »

The only concern I have is that i somehow put everybody on naval search

Should be able to see that from your Ops reports being extreme.
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Tristanjohn »

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Tristanjohn,
ORIGINAL: Tristanjohn
But that's just the point, Erik. It matters not what you think or I think or somebody else thinks, for history is the only and absolute judge of what was possible and unless WitP was designed to be kind of fantasic prism through which we might reinterpret history then historical results need to be the norm, not some rarity which pleases one opinion or the other.

Put another way, given Japanese and American actions at Midway the result was not so hard to believe, and while I understand why, at this scale, the game cannot hope to model all of the myriad detail which went into realizing that result, at the least the game model ought to recognize and make an effort to emulate that historical result. As with UV, this is apparently not the case before us.

Just to clarify what might have been unclear in my comments - I actually think Midway is quite unusual and I meant that if you ran the battle 50 times, I'd expect to see the historical results perhaps once or twice. The rest would be much closer to an even exchange. Any number of analyses I've read indicate that by all measurements, Midway was a fluke (a very good fluke for the US, but still).

Regards,

- Erik

A fluke how? The Japanese plan was assinine at heart and the tactical management of the battle miserable. The result was bound to be in the U.S. Navy's favor given any good luck at all, and in fact weather conditions did not favor our fortunes especially. As it turned out, Yorktown probably should not have been lost, for whatever that's worth--certainly could have been saved given different handling.

So where' the fluke? Our interception of Japanese signals? Our surprising the Japanese? Nagumo's bad decisions? The fact that we found and hit the Japanese carriers at exactly the right time? Ought Yorktown have been sunk two or three times?

History is what it is. Any other treatment is revisionistic. Kinda like saying Pickett's charge at Gettysburg ought to have carried the day if only. . . or Napoleon should have won at Waterloo if only. . . .
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Sinjen »

Providence was on our side at Midway. Don't forget the Jap search plane that spotted our carriers and then had a radio malfunction and could not report. From the Soryu I believe. Also our TBM's attacked first drawing off alot of their overaggressive cap. This allowed what were mostly unescorted SBD's to savage their fleet. When our SBD's hit them they had alot of loose ordance sitting on the deck unsecured because they were in the process of switching from HE bombs for midway back to torpedoes.

Of course someone more learned could expound upon whether the above was history or more Hollywood.
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Tristanjohn »

ORIGINAL: rroberson

Well I finally had the heart to boot the turn up. [:@] Not only did I not get a strike off thanks to whatever "poor luck" I had, but my carriers both sank outright. I need to play the Japanese in a game. Playing the allies is depressing.

It certainly can be, especially early on. Write a letter. [:)]
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by brisd »

ORIGINAL: Tristanjohn

Interesting, But with all those hits (assuming 1000-lb. bombs, and even allowing for FOW) both IJN flattops ought to be long gone, not floating around out there with some sort of chance for survival, don't you think?

Anyway, as with UV I somehow get this feeling that this kind of result will not somehow crop up in my own games, just from replays posted by others. [:)]

I don't agree. Look at Coral Sea for example, several 1000 pounders and still the Japanese CV was damaged but not 'long gone'. If they were critical hits like Midway, sure. FOW is part of the problem, some of those hits were imagined.

USN made much of their own luck at Midway and deserved to win, the IJN plan was poor and poorly executed. But still anytime nearly equal sides engage in battle, the results should be nearly equal. The IJN had superiority is planes, pilot experience, etc. So four lost vs one is onesided. Should be repeatable in WITP but not guaranteed.
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Jim D Burns »

ORIGINAL: Tristanjohn

The result was bound to be in the U.S. Navy's favor given any good luck at all, and in fact weather conditions did not favor our fortunes especially.

I'd have to agree here, since if you think about it all the Japanese air groups except one or two would have to be set to ground attack (airfield or port strike) missions to recreate Midway. Their missions would have to launch first and the US CV's should be undetected in two separate task forces (one with 2 CV's one with 1 CV).

Given this setup, I'd expect good first strike results for the US and a weak response from the Japanese in most cases, since Japan has already launched an air strike in the turn. So if Rob's opponent had been pounding Moresby when he showed up instead of shipping he'd have pretty much recreated the Midway battle here, just a little further south.

But on the flip side, Rob did have a very high minimum CAP set, limiting available escorts for groups checking on a strike. Couple this with the US uncoordinated strike rules and you'd have to admit that setting a few float plane groups on naval attack was a big mistake. I think it's fair to say uncoordination did not enter his thought process when planning the strike and he paid a severe penalty for it.

I doubt any testers ever attempted this in testing, so worrying about how 1 or 2 plane groups would affect the algorithms in the coordination checks probably never entered into the development process for the code. Perhaps a rule that sorts the groups by size before checking the list would be all that is needed, so small groups with only a few planes only get to check if the larger groups have already passed the test.

I’m assuming of course that the checks simply run down a list until either there is no more available escort for additional groups or a coordination check fails. If not then obviously a more complex fix needs to be looked at.

Jim
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Tristanjohn »

ORIGINAL: brisd
ORIGINAL: Tristanjohn

Interesting, But with all those hits (assuming 1000-lb. bombs, and even allowing for FOW) both IJN flattops ought to be long gone, not floating around out there with some sort of chance for survival, don't you think?

Anyway, as with UV I somehow get this feeling that this kind of result will not somehow crop up in my own games, just from replays posted by others. [:)]

I don't agree. Look at Coral Sea for example, several 1000 pounders and still the Japanese CV was damaged but not 'long gone'. If they were critical hits like Midway, sure. FOW is part of the problem, some of those hits were imagined.

USN made much of their own luck at Midway and deserved to win, the IJN plan was poor and poorly executed. But still anytime nearly equal sides engage in battle, the results should be nearly equal. The IJN had superiority is planes, pilot experience, etc. So four lost vs one is onesided. Should be repeatable in WITP but not guaranteed.

Trouble is it's apparent much of the design team (if not all of it) believes in the "fluke" theory and so have modeled the game to impress their bias on history. In UV as well as WitP (from what I've seen) anything like a Midway result would be a 1-in-a-million shot. And so now we have the spectre of history itself being modeled as a fluke.

Sorry, but I just can't accept that with a serious face. [:D]
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Tankerace »

Just out of curiosity... if they did a game set in the North Atlantic, and only 1 out of 50 times the Hood blew up when she engaged the Bismarck, would you consider that "Subscribing to the fluke" theory?
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Tristanjohn »

ORIGINAL: Tankerace

Just out of curiosity... if they did a game set in the North Atlantic, and only 1 out of 50 times the Hood blew up when she engaged the Bismarck, would you consider that "Subscribing to the fluke" theory?

Probably.

Alan Zimm modeled it so the Hood would detonate quite often--not all the time, of course, but the probability was high. And keep in mind Zimm's model was actually used by the navy before it ever saw daylight for public consumption. There were arguments at the time re its accuracy in that respect, but I for one figure he likely got it about right.
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by Buck Beach »

ORIGINAL: Tristanjohn
ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins
ORIGINAL: Tristanjohn
Haven't had many great CV encounters yet, just one south of Milne Bay where as the Americans I had my lunch handed to me. But all this is beginning to sound as if the naval air model sits precisely where it did in UV, which means no way Jose there can be a Midway, which means the model is still broken.

Just wanted to chime in here and add a data point. I've been able to win Coral Sea-type battles, or at least draw, in the early war. In other words, roughly even forces from mid-42 onwards (F4F and the first set of refits). Midway, in my opinion, was a significant "fluke" and the US was very lucky to get it, though they did make their own luck to a degree. I would doubt it's impossible in WitP - one of its strengths is making some of the more unusual historical results possible, but I would hope that it would be very rare. If you set up the Midway battle (somebody get busy with that if you need a side project) and ran it 50 times, I'd expect the historical results. I think the US should expect to get some hits in, but achieving the incredibly lopsided losses they did historically should be rare.

Regards,

- Erik

But that's just the point, Erik. It matters not what you think or I think or somebody else thinks, for history is the only and absolute judge of what was possible and unless WitP was designed to be kind of fantasic prism through which we might reinterpret history then historical results need to be the norm, not some rarity which pleases one opinion or the other.

Put another way, given Japanese and American actions at Midway the result was not so hard to believe, and while I understand why, at this scale, the game cannot hope to model all of the myriad detail which went into realizing that result, at the least the game model ought to recognize and make an effort to emulate that historical result. As with UV, this is apparently not the case before us.
]

I sure can't put any details on one (repeat one) of my UV experiences which did produce similiar results to the Midway action. That's all I can remember except it didn't happen at Midway. I equated it to winning the lottery but that's the way it was in real life wasn't it?

I had several actions similiar to the Coral Sea battle in the time frame of the real life action.

FYI, I only play the AI.
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RE: Ridiculous

Post by David Heath »

ORIGINAL: rroberson

As many of you know Im a big old WITP fanboy. I am willing to go quite far to come up with reasonable explanations for some of the dumber things that happen in this game. I still feel like its pretty near nirvana everytime I boot this baby up. But this is insane.

So I spot my opponent reiyc moving Minesweepers to PM. A foreboding thing which means carriers and combat troop ships arent far behind. I have expected landings for a while , reiyc likes to bomb the hell out of places before invading and Moresby has been the subject of 150 bomber raids for a couple of weeks straight. So I slide a pair of carrier groups into N. Australia and put them into port. The idea was to rest my air and sea crews for what I believe will be a decisive naval engagement. Well sure enough Reiyc swings a deathstar carrier group south towards australia clearing my shipping out. I know precisely where he is thanks to B-17 recons. I put my two carriers to sea right away....now understand...I know I will lose both carriers. Reiyc has between 3 and 4 carriers pounding my shipping...My only hope is to damage his group enough that he withdraws them (ie coral sea) and delays his invasion. In March, the allies still cannot expect to win naval duels against the Japanese.

I close with his carrier groups...I get the turn and begin watching the results and to my delight, not only do i close with his battlestar...IM two freaking hexes away it. Not only will I get a full strike, my torpedo planes will join the party. Soon I see not one, but two sightings by Dauntless Dive Bombers. I'm reasonably certain up to now I have gone unsighted though once I launch Im sure to get a loud response from his planes.

My first strike goes up, 27 Wildcat fighters and two scout planes. That's right, the turn before I was so certain of a carrier battle I even changed a couple of scout planes on my cruisers to naval attack. Now im pretty dumbfounded. The fighters are airborne over the enemy, a couple of scout planes...but nothing else. I try not to worry, they are launched just havent arrived. I watch as his planes savage my carrier group...expected...and then...the turn ends. Where are my freaking Divebombers...torpedo planes...what the hell.

Now I know for a fact I prepped this group for battle. 99 morale almost across the board (one of my fighter groups was at 79) Prior to putting to sea I made sure all my leaders were good to great. Hell I was so paranoid the day before I went back and looked at everything and ordered scout planes from some of my cruisers to naval attack. I was throwing everything i have against him. This is utterly unsatisfactory. I am so disenchanted with the results that it has stolen my desire to boot the game up again. There is no way that my planes should not of launched. The weather was obviously fine, the enemy was spotted, the morale was high, what the hell. Right now I am honesty sick about this. Reiyc is an awesome opponent who has kicked my ass across the pacific in our game. The game will go on despite the absolute ridiculousness of this turn because Robby doesnt take his ball home when things don't turn out right. But Robby is very pissed at the programming of this jewel.


Do you have a save of this right before and right after.

David
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