Strategic Decisions in Feb 1942

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niceguy2005
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by niceguy2005 »

YH - I can't see how in early 42 PH can be defended against a determined attack. If the Jap player wants to spend ALL his resources taking PH it can be done.

On the other hand I don't see PH as a serious threat to the WC. Yes, the KB has a much shorter distance to go to refuel, but the KB is the only thing that has the potential to do any damage to the WC on a continous basis. As an allied player I would salivate over the Japanese player bringing capital ships within range for any length of time as they would have to contend with hundreds of fighters and heavy bombers on a daily basis. Further, while I wouldn't risk my carriers defending PH, I would bring them up in support of the WC, where again I could gain a CAP advantage of hundreds of land based fighters. A WC battle would be bloody but the Japanese would loose everytime.

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moses
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by moses »

The problem is that you are thinking in terms of real life. I am talking specifically about the game.

In the game a carrier raid against SF is very possible. The allies do no have very many fighters at all and certainly nothing that can put up a fight against KB. The only thing that makes raids against the west coast difficult is that its a long way from Japan. So that if a b26 gets lucky and drops a bomb or two on a carrier it may not make it back. But PH is much closer making things safer and much easier in terms of supply.

The taking of the islands is also not all that difficult. Once you have one or two of the smaller islands you can set up an impenetrable air blockade. Once you have two bases at level four KB can leave. (It can also lurk about and wait for the allies to try and do something) 5 divisions on Oahu is no problem. Bomb them for two months with BB's and aircraft. There is no way to get supply in and they will slowly die. I hope the allies try to bring in transports because they will be easy to sink.

The allies get stronger as the game goes on but really before 43 this is an imperceptable effect. Throughout 42 the allies have insufficient aircraft to stop a determined Japanese offensive.


Not to say that victory is automatic. But I would certainly like my chances.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by niceguy2005 »

I'd agree with most of that except for the KB off the WC. The KB just couldn't operate off after the WC for longer than a quick raid. It's basic numerical superiority. YOu have at least 300 fighters in early 42 flying from at least 3 level 10 airfields. In addition you would be facing 200+ medium and heavy bombers. Air loses for the KB would be considerable over time and eventually those american bombers will hit something.

But its all a mute point, because why would any Japanese player want to bother? It doesn't gain him resources or victory. He just destroys a bunch of throw away american fighters and sinks some AKs. Everything else would be on its way to Australia.

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Yamato hugger
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by Yamato hugger »

No, I am talking about in the game. Here is the reality of it: The Japs only have 12 divisions they can ship in (4, 38, 21, 16, 48, 33, 55, 2, 5, 18, 56, and Imp GD). Add in the half dozen BDEs they get and you are talking 15 divs total available to Japan. The allies can have 5 divisions in PH by the end of Dec 41. 15 Jap divisions isnt going to move 5 allied divisions (some of the allied divs are 70 and 80 experience also) out of a level 9 fort (ever fought in China?). AND if they do commit these forces, what is taking SRA/PI/Burma?? Add in a few RCTs, some marine def bns and all the centpac AA units and you have 1 tough nut to crack. So of these 15 available divisions, how many are you going to send? Better bring them all, because if you dont, you have no prayer.

Edit: let me clarify that, ever fought in China against experienced Chinese units?
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by moses »

But the problem is that the allies have very few fighters. I'm in sept in my current game and have almost no fighters in my pool. This given that the wars tempo has tapered off in the last weeks. I have fought the fighter shortage from the beginning. P40's are in very short supply and while f4F's are abundant there are only a few land based groups of these.

The attack on SF is unstoppable. Sure you can only stay 3 or 4 days but in that time you can maul the ships in port.

The reason you bother is because where would the us player like to park his carriers and his heavy ships for repair. SF.

This is not the main reason to take PH though. The main reason is that it is a fantastic defensive position which can hardly be bypassed and which assures Japanese dominance of the Pacific well into 43. Even once the allies gain naval supremacy it will still be a tough nut to crack since you have a lot of good airbases in supporting distance of each other.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by Yamato hugger »

ORIGINAL: moses

But the problem is that the allies have very few fighters. I'm in sept in my current game and have almost no fighters in my pool. This given that the wars tempo has tapered off in the last weeks. I have fought the fighter shortage from the beginning. P40's are in very short supply and while f4F's are abundant there are only a few land based groups of these.

The attack on SF is unstoppable. Sure you can only stay 3 or 4 days but in that time you can maul the ships in port.

The reason you bother is because where would the us player like to park his carriers and his heavy ships for repair. SF.

This is not the main reason to take PH though. The main reason is that it is a fantastic defensive position which can hardly be bypassed and which assures Japanese dominance of the Pacific well into 43. Even once the allies gain naval supremacy it will still be a tough nut to crack since you have a lot of good airbases in supporting distance of each other.

IF the Japs have Hawaii, who is going to park anything important in San Francisco? Personally, Im going to leave 20-30 merchant ships there, and move a truckload of AA guns there and let you attrition yourself to death. Anything that can shoot at a plane (including whatever fighters are available) is going to throw themselves at you. Every pilot I kill moves me closer to victory. And if you are close enough to hit me, you are close enough for me to hit you. Unescorted bombers dropping 500lb GP bombs. 1 hit, 1 fire, 1 sunk carrier trying to get home before it burns and sinks.

Edit: and if PH is that easy for the Japs to take, its that easy for the allies to re-take.

Edit2: easier in fact, because the allies wont be facing 16" shore guns.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by moses »

ORIGINAL: Yamato hugger

No, I am talking about in the game. Here is the reality of it: The Japs only have 12 divisions they can ship in (4, 38, 21, 16, 48, 33, 55, 2, 5, 18, 56, and Imp GD). Add in the half dozen BDEs they get and you are talking 15 divs total available to Japan. The allies can have 5 divisions in PH by the end of Dec 41. 15 Jap divisions isnt going to move 5 allied divisions (some of the allied divs are 70 and 80 experience also) out of a level 9 fort (ever fought in China?). AND if they do commit these forces, what is taking SRA/PI/Burma?? Add in a few RCTs, some marine def bns and all the centpac AA units and you have 1 tough nut to crack. So of these 15 available divisions, how many are you going to send? Better bring them all, because if you dont, you have no prayer.

Edit: let me clarify that, ever fought in China against experienced Chinese units?

Yea I've worked on China a bit.

But you're too worried about those five divisions. First you burn off their supply. This does not take all that long if you bomb them each day. Add 6 or 7 heavy navel bombardments and you can reduce the supply levels fairly quickly. Maybe two months and its all gone. You have all the time in the world. Once air bases are established its just mechanical.

With supply gone units start to deteriorate. Low density items attrit fastest. So after another month or so there will still be lots of infantry left but the artillery will be gone or disabled. Sometime in June after all the normal conquests are complete you bring in three or four otherwise idle divisions to mop up.

So it takes 6 months to destroy those guys. It doesnt matter. Once they are isolated they will be lost eventually.

This assumes even that the allies can get three added divisions there before the attack.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by Yamato hugger »

ORIGINAL: moses

Yea I've worked on China a bit.

But you're too worried about those five divisions. First you burn off their supply. This does not take all that long if you bomb them each day. Add 6 or 7 heavy navel bombardments and you can reduce the supply levels fairly quickly. Maybe two months and its all gone. You have all the time in the world. Once air bases are established its just mechanical.

Know what? Try it. You have my strategy. Move all CentPac units to PH. Set PH to fotify. After you have tried it, please come back and tell me what happened.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by moses »

Ahh but if you don't have anything in SF then you're best repair facility is going to waste.

Its easier for Japan to take it because the Japanese air superiority is much more pronounced. In the first months it is easy to reduce PH to almost zero air power. In fact you have to screw up not to do so. So its the very powerful Japanese air arm against essentially NOTHING. Hard to lose that fight.

The allies will retake it someday as they will everything. But this will be more difficult as they will have to support the attack with carrier air only and Japan will always have significant air power to put up some defence. If KB stays strong then the counter-invasion will be very hard.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by niceguy2005 »

ORIGINAL: moses

But the problem is that the allies have very few fighters. I'm in sept in my current game and have almost no fighters in my pool. This given that the wars tempo has tapered off in the last weeks. I have fought the fighter shortage from the beginning. P40's are in very short supply and while f4F's are abundant there are only a few land based groups of these.

The attack on SF is unstoppable. Sure you can only stay 3 or 4 days but in that time you can maul the ships in port.

The reason you bother is because where would the us player like to park his carriers and his heavy ships for repair. SF.

This is not the main reason to take PH though. The main reason is that it is a fantastic defensive position which can hardly be bypassed and which assures Japanese dominance of the Pacific well into 43. Even once the allies gain naval supremacy it will still be a tough nut to crack since you have a lot of good airbases in supporting distance of each other.

The allies have plenty of fighters. There are several squadrons of p-39s and p-36s available as well as the p-40s and the f4Fs. They're not great fighters, but when your talking about units of 72 each it adds up to a lot of planes to shoot down.
And we are talking about 2/42, not 12/41 - though in all actuality, we are probably talking about 5/42 because by the time John 3rd finishes off his current campaigns and actually takes PH it will be at least another 3 months. By 6/42 the allied air situation is starting to look a lot better. In my games to date, my fighter pool improves around 6 or 7 of 42. Before that it can get a little rough.

The great thing about playing the allies playing is that sometime in 43 the balance shifts and the allies decide where the war happens. Personally, just as I wouldn't attack PH as a Japanese player I wouldn't attack it as an allied player until the Japanese withdrew some forces. Its nice to have, but unnecessary for allied victory. Just as the allies bypassed Rabaul, they would bypass PH (in the game, real life it would be entirely different). There's nothing terribly magical about the place. Its a really just nice port and a great place to store supplies.

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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by moses »

ORIGINAL: Yamato hugger


Know what? Try it. You have my strategy. Move all CentPac units to PH. Set PH to fotify. After you have tried it, please come back and tell me what happened.

Its already been done in at least one of the AAR's. They went straight in to take PH and took a lot of losses but took the whole thing anyway.

No need to get upset. Its just another strategy. Might be interesting for someone to test exactly how fast the force at PH can be starved out but I haven't the time until summer. The isolation strategy seems quite sound and I can't see a lot of problems with it. Its just a question of if you want to commit KB to the operation as opposed to going elsewhere.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by Yamato hugger »

ORIGINAL: moses

The allies will retake it someday as they will everything. But this will be more difficult as they will have to support the attack with carrier air only and Japan will always have significant air power to put up some defence. If KB stays strong then the counter-invasion will be very hard.

Right. This means that any allied player worth his salt isnt going to look at it until '44. If the KB is locked into defending Hawaii, then the Brits have long since blasted the Jap oil fields with long range bombers. Japs cant be everywhere at once. If your airplanes are defending Hawaii, there isnt much to defend Burma. Or Malaya. Or Java. Or Timor. All the allies need is a few bases in that area and bye bye oil. Probably wont matter anyway if your carriers are operating 40 experience pilots. [;)]

Edit: expanding too far and trying to defend it is the death knell of the Japs.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by Yamato hugger »

Which AAR is it? Id like to see it (I have never read one). Willing to bet the allied player didnt protect PH from the outset. I on the other hand, secure PH and Ceylon first. Before I do anything else.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by moses »

Maybe but once the base is secure KB has no need to stay. Presumably in the defensive stage of the war, KB is centralized and waiting for the allies to select an axis of attack.

Taking Hawaii is no more of an overextension then taking Numea, Austrailia or India. The Japanese player is perfectly free to forgo any invasions outside of the historical limits. Perhaps this is a good plan. But the attack on Hawaii should not be ruled out as an option.

I would think that Hawaii is much more damaging to allied options than having lost Numea. With Hawaii lost it is hard for the allies to operate anywhere off the west coast due to the threat of carriers which can appear at any time out of nowhere.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by moses »

ORIGINAL: Yamato hugger

Which AAR is it? Id like to see it (I have never read one). Willing to bet the allied player didnt protect PH from the outset. I on the other hand, secure PH and Ceylon first. Before I do anything else.

I thing WITP_DUDEvs Zeta. In that one I think they exploited the first turn move pretty well.

But why do you think you get a chance to reinforce. KB can stay and pound PH for two days and then move east to prevent reinforcements. Or it can hit one day pull back for a week to refuel and then move to cut off your resupply. As long as its on station east of PH around 21 Dec you're not getting any resupply in.

It takes a while to get forces to Hawaii but small units can arrive in 2 or 3 weeks and you don't need much to take the initial air bases.

In this scenario the downside is that KB is commited for about two to three months to this operation. Fortunately you don't need KB to take the DEI.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by Yamato hugger »

ORIGINAL: moses

Maybe but once the base is secure KB has no need to stay. Presumably in the defensive stage of the war, KB is centralized and waiting for the allies to select an axis of attack.

Taking Hawaii is no more of an overextension then taking Numea, Austrailia or India. The Japanese player is perfectly free to forgo any invasions outside of the historical limits. Perhaps this is a good plan. But the attack on Hawaii should not be ruled out as an option.

I would think that Hawaii is much more damaging to allied options than having lost Numea.

Wellllll. Cant say Ive ever heard of anyone conquering Aus. Even against the AI. India I should think isnt takeable unless the Japs use the army in China. Noumena is easily taken, but defending it is another matter.
With Hawaii lost it is hard for the allies to operate anywhere off the west coast due to the threat of carriers which can appear at any time out of nowhere.

That may be true. IF you lose Hawaii.

But here is the real problem with trying to take PH as the Japs. If you lose, you lose. Your airpower is decimated. You have probably lost your carriers. You have missing army units. If the allies lose it, so what?
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by Yamato hugger »

ORIGINAL: moses

I thing WITP_DUDEvs Zeta. In that one I think they exploited the first turn move pretty well.

Ah, ok. Read the first paragraph and dont need to see any more.

Scen 15.

Took Palmyra on the first day. I dont usually play scen 15 because of things like that. Sure, you can take PH if you play scen 15 and you go straight at it before the allies can do anything. You can play scen 15 and sink the Enterprise and Lex right off as well keeping the allies from doing a thing until mid-43 if you want. Thats why I play 16.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by moses »

ORIGINAL: Yamato hugger


But here is the real problem with trying to take PH as the Japs. If you lose, you lose. Your airpower is decimated. You have probably lost your carriers. You have missing army units. If the allies lose it, so what?

But isn't that with the whole game!!!???
As Japan you don't have the margin of error that the allies have.

If you do nothing you will get rolled over. If you attack you overextend and then get rolled over. Nothing you do is very likely to allow you to defeat the allies.

The best option IMO though is to attack as long as you can. Only in this way to you have the possibility of sinking carriers as they come on-line thus extending the duration of your naval advantage.

You could I guess go on the defensive and hoipe the allies attack prematurly. But this is not to my taste.
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RE: Invade Hawaii? India??

Post by Yamato hugger »

ORIGINAL: moses
ORIGINAL: Yamato hugger


But here is the real problem with trying to take PH as the Japs. If you lose, you lose. Your airpower is decimated. You have probably lost your carriers. You have missing army units. If the allies lose it, so what?

But isn't that with the whole game!!!???
As Japan you don't have the margin of error that the allies have.

If you do nothing you will get rolled over. If you attack you overextend and then get rolled over. Nothing you do is very likely to allow you to defeat the allies.

The best option IMO though is to attack as long as you can. Only in this way to you have the possibility of sinking carriers as they come on-line thus extending the duration of your naval advantage.

You could I guess go on the defensive and hoipe the allies attack prematurly. But this is not to my taste.

Well I have 3 fundemental attack plans as the Japs. In phase 1, I conduct landings north and south of Clark field, and I march much of the Jap army that starts in Indo-China into Malaya. I take Jolo, Davao. and Kuching. I also offer up some easy kills to the allies as "bait" to see if the allies bite. Depending on how the allies respond to phase 1 determines what I do in phase 3. I also take Moresby in phase 1.

Phase 2 is the assult on Java. I take 4 divisions from either the PI or Malaya and land on Java. After securing it, I go back and clean up the rest of teh DEI. As the allies, I bomb the snot out of Jap oil and HI as the targets are presented, so as the Japs, I take the oil centers only after the allied air threat has been eliminated. Based on what the allies did back in phase 1 is how I am positioning my support units for phase 3. Extensive recon, by land based recon and sub based is conducted along the India, Aus, New Calidonia, New Zeland, and eastern Pacific (including PH) to determine allied deployments.

Phase 3 vs Vorsteher:
What he did in phase 1 was pull all his ships and planes out and left the ground troops to hold in place (or rather, die in place). He was trying to buy time with the ground troops while preserving his strength.

My recon showed me he was vunerable all along the India and Aus coasts except Darwin. My spy-boat at PH told me there were only 7 units there. He was building up all over the south Pacific. Phase 3 vs him would be pac-man. He had Luganville built up to a level 3 port. A perfect staging base for an assult on Noumena. I came with 12 CVs and 10 divisions (plus support). I had 1 convoy of 100 ships, and another of 87 (for landing at Efate). 6 BBs in 2 TFs for bombarding. The turn before the landing, 5 US CVs and land based air hit me from Noumena (I placed 8 of my carriers to screen this flank. I hadnt spotted his carriers however. I expected them to be at NZ, so in a way, this was the battle of Midway). Net result 1 bomb hit on Kaga. 16 system damage, 10 flood, and a level 4 fire. 5 dead US CVs. He had a regiment of the 25th div and some engineers on Luganville. It fell before the transports were even unloaded. He promptly surrendered.

Phase 3 against him was going to be a complete take-over of the so pac. Since he spead out, he was vunerable to a concentrated attack.

I have 2 other games going atm as Japan (waiting for the new version to stabilize before starting a 3rd) and 3 as allies. In one of those, the allied player was very aggressive. PoW was used to conduct raids in SRA away from my LBA. I eventually hunted it down and sank it with 1/2 of the KB. In this game because of his aggressive nature, I have set a few traps figuring he will wander into one sooner or later. I am bideing my time waiting in this one. My assult divisions are deployed in defensive areas (3/42) waiting for him to make a mistake. If he doesnt come out, then I have gone as far as I will go.

In the other game the allied is all bunched up in NE India and very weak on Ceylon. The situation merits an invasion of India.



The point to all this is this: I dont go into any game (as the Japs) planning to hit India, or Aus, or whatever. I look at what the allies are doing and react to that.
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RE: Strategic Decisions in Feb 1942

Post by Nomad »

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

ORIGINAL: KDonovan

how does changing West Coast units to SEAC make them go to India?

They supposedly go around the Cape of Good Hope, arriving in Karachi 60 days after being reassigned.

I have done this in my lunacy game with Mogami( I can do what ever I want, no restrictions after first turn). The North Pacific HQ left Hawaii and is taking 60 days to get to Karachi, but the ground units assigned to NP show up in Karachi at the same time they would have arrived in San Francisco. [:)]
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