ORIGINAL: golden delicious
Yeah, I know. Does it always get launched or is it by TO? I'm just not too keen on the possibility of an entire scenario (especially one as large as yours) being decided by one % chance.
It gets launched automatically on its historical turn. A TO would be pointless - it would always be optioned as soon as it became available. Waiting would only reduce the number of turns a favorable result could affect. And the scenario will not be decided by the result. If it hits, the Axis player will lose the "Desert Fox" advantage a little sooner than historically. His task will just become a little more difficult.

