Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Why are you building your airfields beyond level 4? You don't need it. You're just doing Allied work for them.

In my game, we have a house-rule that you can base AF size x 50 A/C max. If John and Dan have his rule, that might be the reason. That allows a total of over 1000 A/C in the Marianas.

And to John's point, building 3 steps is a snap for the Allies anyway.

[John 3rd]

Thanks Q-Ball!  That is the point with this.  Dan and I religiously follow the 50 plane/level AF rule.  I want to stock those bases with nearly 1000 planes by January 1944.  It will happen.  I could consolidate my Naval air right now and have 5-600 planes there right now.
 
My hopes are for September when I get my Jacks!  Those are good naval planes and I want them fast!  Will also begin to get my 2nd generation Naval TB and DB.  These will be far better then good OLD Kate and Val. 
 
For all that to take place I have got to get my economy fixed.  When we hit August, I am going to do (hopefully) a highly detailed economic report.  Pends on life but that is my plan...
 

[ny59giants]

For all that to take place I have got to get my economy fixed. When we hit August, I am going to do (hopefully) a highly detailed economic report. Pends on life but that is my plan...

[John 3rd]

Is that a SARCASM smiley I just saw Michael!!??

I may have to cut your economic advisor fee in HALF for that...

[John 3rd]

Within my AAR there has been some debate as to what is gamey and what is not.  I hold that accelerating CV production ISN'T and look at what the last two game turns have brought:
 
July 26th  CVL Chitose
July 28th  CV Amagi
 
Chiyoda and the BB Hybrids are not far behind.
 
I have to train up these CV airgroups and they will be sent south to join CV Taiho and Unryu.
 
The only issue I have is that I changed Chitose's planes from A6M5 and Jills back to A6M2 and Kate so I can place those newer planes with excellent crews and ran into a problem.  When I changed the planes, both Daitai expanded from 21 Z and 9 TB to 27 of EACH!  Chitose only hold 30 planes.  What should I do?
 
 

[String]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Within my AAR there has been some debate as to what is gamey and what is not. I hold that accelerating CV production ISN'T and look at what the last two game turns have brought:

July 26th CVL Chitose
July 28th CV Amagi

Chiyoda and the BB Hybrids are not far behind.

I have to train up these CV airgroups and they will be sent south to join CV Taiho and Unryu.

The only issue I have is that I changed Chitose's planes from A6M5 and Jills back to A6M2 and Kate so I can place those newer planes with excellent crews and ran into a problem. When I changed the planes, both Daitai expanded from 21 Z and 9 TB to 27 of EACH! Chitose only hold 30 planes. What should I do?

Just keep the zeroes on board. The Chitose has ordnance for only a strike or two anyway.

[anarchyintheuk]

ORIGINAL: String

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Within my AAR there has been some debate as to what is gamey and what is not. I hold that accelerating CV production ISN'T and look at what the last two game turns have brought:

July 26th CVL Chitose
July 28th CV Amagi

Chiyoda and the BB Hybrids are not far behind.

I have to train up these CV airgroups and they will be sent south to join CV Taiho and Unryu.

The only issue I have is that I changed Chitose's planes from A6M5 and Jills back to A6M2 and Kate so I can place those newer planes with excellent crews and ran into a problem. When I changed the planes, both Daitai expanded from 21 Z and 9 TB to 27 of EACH! Chitose only hold 30 planes. What should I do?

Just keep the zeroes on board. The Chitose has ordnance for only a strike or two anyway.

Which fits perfectly with their life expectancy.

Depends on which you want, cap or strike?

[John 3rd]

Nice thing with getting these CVs in is that I can change out aircraft and place the new designs into my best Daitai and the older designs can go on the new CVs who need pilot training.  This works out pretty well.  I think Chitose will carry Kates and Chiyoda will have Zeros,  This will maintain a balance of 27 and 27.  They do only have 90+ sorties but in a CV fight that SHOULD be enough...

[String]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Nice thing with getting these CVs in is that I can change out aircraft and place the new designs into my best Daitai and the older designs can go on the new CVs who need pilot training. This works out pretty well. I think Chitose will carry Kates and Chiyoda will have Zeros, This will maintain a balance of 27 and 27. They do only have 90+ sorties but in a CV fight that SHOULD be enough...

I'd personally just carry more zeroes.

[Mike Solli]

If the Daitai haven't repaired the planes yet (and assuming they're on land), I'd wait until some repair and eventually move 18 Zeros and 9 Kates on each.  that way, you can make use of the sorties on each  CVL.
 
Then, disband the fragments remaining into something else and you're good to go.  Just don't upgrade the Daitai or turn replacements on.

[John 3rd]

Mike--You are getting to be a regular on the AAR!  Good advice from both of you.  I think the correct way to think about these CVLs is as CVEs.  Carry heavy Fighters and a few TB.  I will run with your thought Mike and go 18F/9TB.
 
I expect Chiyoda in about 10 days (now July 30th) and will prep her accordingly.
 

[Mike Solli]

An easier way to do it is to split one fighter and bomber into 3 chutai each of 9 planes.  Put one Kate chutai into each CVL and 2 fighters in one and 1 in the other.  Then get an independent fighter chutai and put it into the second CVL.

[1EyedJacks]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Within my AAR there has been some debate as to what is gamey and what is not.  I hold that accelerating CV production ISN'T and look at what the last two game turns have brought:

July 26th  CVL Chitose
July 28th  CV Amagi

Chiyoda and the BB Hybrids are not far behind.

I have to train up these CV airgroups and they will be sent south to join CV Taiho and Unryu.

The only issue I have is that I changed Chitose's planes from A6M5 and Jills back to A6M2 and Kate so I can place those newer planes with excellent crews and ran into a problem.  When I changed the planes, both Daitai expanded from 21 Z and 9 TB to 27 of EACH!  Chitose only hold 30 planes.  What should I do?

Will you be doing a little raiding with these new toys? Where are Dan's main supply lines?

[John 3rd]

That is a good question.  I do intend to give these ships on-the-job training in a somewhat safe area.  I have sent these ships to join Taiho around Papaete in hunting Dan's single ship TF he seemingly likes to run from the shipping channel to New Zealand.  Have caught and sunk 3 AK and 2 SC over the last week...
 
I know that Dan will move again sometime in the near future.  My Recon has picked up several TF east of Marcus and NE of Wake.  Figure he is feeling out my defenses by probing with AKs.  He has done that before.  I am ignoring them and trying to lure him in.
 
This activity would seemingly indicate an attack towards Marcus and/or Wake.  Each of these bases has a far stronger defensive strength then Midway.  Both are heavily mined and well supplied for an attack.  I know he will bring in 4-5 Inf Div again but I think I could hold for a while and try to whittle his forces down. 
 
My intention is to allow him to approach his target with little-to-no interference.  I will gather my planes at a nearby location, let him land, and then swing as hard as I can.  I will do this in conjunction with a Surface Attack to, hopefully, force him away from the island to allow my airstrikes a reasonable chance of success.  As this is happening, I will order the KB our of its anchorage at Truk and attack a few days later.
 
This is the tentative plan.  Of course, CUSTER had a plan...
 

[John 3rd]

August 1, 1943
Victory Points and Economic Summary

Victory Points:

Score
Japan 42,449 (Up 447 Points)
Allies 17,516 (Up 969 Points)

With all the Allied sinkings off Midway this turned out to be an OK month for Japan.

Ships Sunk
Japan 356—3,278 VP (up 63)—I lost 9 ships (4 warships lost) sunk during July. Exact losses were: 3 Old DD, I-6, 2 PG, and 3 AK.

Major Japanese Vessels Sunk to Date---CV Junyo and Hiyo, BB Fuso and Yamashiro, BC Kirishima, CAs Kinugasa, Kako, and Mikuma, 5 CL, 33 DD (16 Modern DD lost), and 22 SS (18 I-Boats and 4 Ro-).

Allies 611---7,294 VP (up 294)---Dan lost a total of 64 ships for the month of July. Certainly makes up some for NONE the previous month. His losses were: 5 PT-Boats, 15 MSW, 16 SC, 18 AK, 7 AP, 2 LCI, and 1 TK.

Major Allied Vessels Sunk---CVs Enterprise, Lexington, Hornet, and Wasp, BBs Colorado, West Virginia, Idaho, Tennessee, Arizona, and Prince of Wales, 9 CA, 7 CL, 49 DD, and 13 SS.


Manchukuo Garrison---8,144---Up 9---(8,000 Needed)
Political Points---835

Units Transferred:
Home Islands 53rd Infantry Division to Southern Area Army (Philippines)


Industrial Report
Supply 2,616,307
Fuel 1,057,708
Manpower 852 (1,087,954)
Heavy Industry 15,107 (2,282)
Resources 20,109 (2,125,523)
Oil 2,122 (577,348)

My numbers here slipped some but not badly. I still have a major fuel crisis going on that is causing my economy to falter. Michael Benoit is helping a bit and we’ll see if the two of us can get things onto a better track.

Shipyards
Naval 1,366 (1)
Merchant 981 (2)
Repair 1,508


Battleships
Musashi (140 Days)
Ise (56 Days)
Hyuga (69 Days)

Carriers
Katsuragi (365 Days)
Kasagi (638 Days)—Accelerated
Aso (680 Days)--Accelerated
CVL Chiyoda (40 Days)--Accelerated

Launched CVs Unryu and Amagi plus CVL Chitose


Weapons
Armament 572 (59,901)
Vehicles 171 (3,488)

Armament dropped about 2,000 and vehicles rose over 2,500! Don’t know why it did but it did. To help my economy I have shutdown about 250 Armament and 50 Vehicles. Will restart if I have issues with dropping inventory.

Aircraft
Engines 2,129
Assembly 1,109+(923-Rd)

Assembly dropped some as I shifted some production (A6M3) into new areas.

Engine Production
Mitsubishi 610/Month—Need 388—2,170 in Pool
Nakajima 1,299—Need 1,076---51 in Pool
Kawasaki 200---Need 190---16 in Pool
Aichi 20---Need 0---320 in Pool

The bomber shift has allowed me to use more Mitsubishi engines and I have been slowly seeing an occasional surplus in the Nakajimas.


Plane Production
Fighters Planes/Month (in Pool)
A6M2 0 (53)
A6M3 0 (13)
A6M3a 165 (72)
Oscar 0 (448)
Oscar IIa 58 (89)
Tojo 76 (16)
Tony 190 (162)
Jack 131-R (9/43)
A6M5c 44
A6M5 10-Rd (9/43)
Oscar III 7-Rd (9/43)
Ki-61 Tony 452-Rd (11/43)—Moved up another month so it is TWO months early!
N1K1 George 28-Rd (12/43)

I have replennished nearly all my Sentai and Daitai during the month. I should see my stockpiles come up in August and I cannot wait for my Jacks in September! Will also get the M5 and Oscar IIIs too…

Bombers
Betty 0 (337)
Betty 2 54 (31)
Sally 66 (8)
Helen 131 (14)
Lily 114 (5)
Nick-a 27 (4)
Nick-b 12 (0)
Val 0 (408)—Shut down
Kate 63 (77)
Judy 98-Rd (9/43)—Moved up 1 Month!
Jill 57-Rd (10/43)—Moved up 1 Month!

VERY good month for my bombers. I have nearly filled all my Daitai and Sentai. The Army Sentai I disbanded earlier are filling out in Osaka and things look good here. The bonus of seeing Judy and Jill move up a month was quite nice to see. Cannot wait to change them out on my CVs!

Recon/Float
Emily 20 (29)
Alf 0 (31)
Pete 0 (72)
Pete A 0 (54)
Rufe 6 (11)
Glen 4 (36)
Dinah 0 (3)
Irving-R 42 (35)
Irving-S 23 (28)
Jake 8 (78)
Babs 0 (31)

Recon is picking up also. Looks like I should be able to get all my units filled out and get them upgraded within the next month or two.

Transports
Tina 10 (60)
Sally 0 (25)
Topsy 0 (30)
Mavis-L 5 (21)
Tabby 10 (86)

Shut down Topsy and am also killing off my Tinas too. My Transport units are full and not doing much at the moment…

[ny59giants]

Supply 2,616,307
Fuel 1,057,708
Manpower 852 (1,087,954)
Heavy Industry 15,107 (2,282)
Resources 20,109 (2,125,523)
Oil 2,122 (577,348)

I have spoken with John about the shortage of Oil. His 15,107 HI need more oil than he is producing (2122 x 6 = 12732) or 2375 short per day. Thus, he needs another 396 Oil centers producing (396 x 6 = 2376). However, 500 of his HI is in Australia and they will take a back seat to the Home Island and the Mainland (Indochina & China).

The second big issue is the lack of (or almost dry) fuel situation from Manila to the west. I have given him a detailed list of TF assignments to bring in Oil, then load fuel before heading west. As a former Allied player, I really did not have to deal with shortages after the first few months. As Japan, they can rise up and strike the unsuspected.

John has a habit of running TF carrying Oil, Resources, Supply, and/or Fuel not at full capacity. From my brief experience as Japan, they do not have the luxury to do this nor having them only working on one leg of their journey. Now, I am trying to get him to load Oil from the SRA, go to Japan, unload, and take back Fuel. We will be doing the same thing with Resources and Supplies as I have placed the highest priority to 2 TF going to Palembang and Balikpapan with supplies to repair the damaged Oil centers.

I have advised him to halt some of his Mitsabishi and Aichi engines as he has over 3 months in surplus and to allow some build up of a HI reserve.

I have also banded myself from his opponent's AAR even though my role here is Economic Advisor. I get to see the game file from time to time and don't want to do or say anything that could be seen as having a conflict of interest. If any more experienced Japanese players see anything about the economy that I didn't, please let us know as I'm still a novice (but am very OCD [:D]).

Michael
Japanese Economic Foreman

[John 3rd]

A round of applause for those who are willing to jump and throw themselves on the sword!  [8D][8D][8D]
 
I am hoping with a month of time to get this somehwat straightened out.  To be honest, I had not paid enough attention to Palembang and Balikpapan who are still greviously damaged from when I took them over 18 months ago.  I kept loading resources from them so they couldn't repair.  OOOOpppppsss...
 
This whole situation proves to me that a player is ALWAYS learning and can take advice whenever possible.  I knew that I had issues with the economy but it took Michael to make me fully appreciate it.
 

[John 3rd]

The more I think about things, the more I KNOW that Dan is going to try something soon. He keep mentioning in his emails to me how he is so far behind the normal Allied Player's schedule.

This has gotten me to thinking tonight that he might try to do something crazy and swing for the fences. I keep thinking that he will be logical and begin a logical assault where he drives forward into the Japanese Perimeter; unfortunately, I am beginning to think it might be a much more serious attack.

After taking Midway (a logical choice) I would think for him to clear a path to New Zealand so he can threaten my southern perimeter (New Caledonia/New Guinea/Rabaul) and more quickly drive my remaining troops out of Australia. This would mean taking Papaete, Pago-Pago, and Bora Bora. This is what I would do...

OR

I would land at Marcus or Wake and threaten the Home Islands directly.

That being said, do I place myself into the Japanese Midway scenario? I do plan for what I EXPECT the Americans to do rather then plan for what I KNOW they COULD do? This is a conundrum.

Dan has already demonstated a willingness to take high risks when he landed in the Marshalls. Albiet he paid for that mistake, I would not throw out the possiblity of something similar occurring.

So what does this stream of conscienceness lead me to think?

I THINK he may try to grab a place I do not expect. That list of targets would include: the Marianas, Iwo Jima, or even Formosa. COULD Dan do something like that? Yes... WOULD he is the more logical question?

It is time to gather my aerial forces. I will begin to pull them into Saipan, Tinian, and Guam. There are upwards of 300 Betty with experience 75+ pilots. I can gather 3-400 Zeros with an acceptable experience range from the mid-60s to 70s.

If Dan gives me until September then I will gain Jacks, A6M5, and Judy...

Don't think I will have that luxury...

Any ideas from the gallery?

[ny59giants]

Palembang and Balikpapan who are still greviously damaged from when I took them over 18 months ago. I kept loading resources from them so they couldn't repair. OOOOpppppsss...

Loading Resources and taking them away didn't harm you there. It was trying to repair both Oil and Resources centers at the same time, that got you into trouble (along with not bringing in enough supply to get the job done). Plus, if you look more closely at the Industry Report, you will see that you have 5000 more Resource centers than HI. So those two Resources centers were not necessary. You and others have to remember to multiple the Oil by 6 and if that is greater than you HI, than things are in good shape.

OK, time to put down my professor's hat and go to bed. More teaching tomorrow. [:D]

[John 3rd]

How about that?
 
He is correct.  All this time spent playing the Japanese and for me to not see this is a mark of stupidity...
 
I have been forced to consume humble pie...