Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

[Bullwinkle58]

January 10, 1942

Traffic

E-mail indicated turn was a bit of a snooze. Not untrue. But still a ball of confusion near Hawaii. What the heck he's up to I have no idea. If that's the point I'll say for the Nth time, fine, but time marches on day by day. Japanese operations around Hawaii are tying down some Allied assets, but not redirecting Allied efforts from what they would be otherwise to any great extent.

Just some of the patrol reports picked up this turn by Allied searchers. Where's a traffic light when you need it?

SOC-1 Seagull sighting report: 8 Japanese ships at 179,104 near Lihue, speed 12, Moving Southeast
SOC-1 Seagull sighting report: Japanese SS at 180,106 near Pearl Harbor , Speed 12 , Moving East
PBY-5 Catalina sighting report: 7 Japanese ships at 175,116 near Pearl Harbor , Speed 14 , Moving Northwest
PBY-5 Catalina sighting report: 8 Japanese ships at 177,116 near Kona , Speed 10 , Moving Northwest
PBY-5 Catalina sighting report: 9 Japanese ships at 175,116 near Pearl Harbor , Speed 19 , Moving Northwest (Speed and vector suggest this TF might have been chasing the Johnson bombarders.)
PBY-5 Catalina sighting report: 8 Japanese ships at 172,114 near Johnston Island , Speed 11 , Moving West

1) Tank Regiment walks into vacant Rangoon. Not gonna be a good VP day . . .

2) IJN using DDs to clear mines at Miri. Two down, many to go. Two Dutch O-boats just laid forty more each in selected Borneo ports and headed to port for more.

3) USS Argonaut, with mines aboard herself and headed to Johnson I., catches I-4 on the surface and puts it down from 2000 yards. The "sub sunk" breaking-up-noises sound effect is the most mournful in the game.

Sub vs Sub: SS Argonaut attacking SS I-4 at 174,112

Japanese Ships
SS I-4, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Argonaut

4) DD Asakaze brutally works over USS Sargo between Miri and Brunei. She may be mortal. Have to see.

5) A large conglomeration of ships continues to cluster at Miri. Previously some were IDed as cruisers and destroyers, but now S-39 goes into the harbor and attacks a small TF of a PB and two xAKs. No hits, but it indicates supplies are probably being landed. Perhaps to repair Oil damage?

6) A Dutch fighter squadron moved from Batavia to Palembang to shore up against the daily supply denial attacks takes it on the chin from a 10-Zero sweep, losing three. In better news, at Singers British Hurricanes fight their first action of the Pacific war and do well, shooting down a Zero for no losses of their own. Following, the Dutch fighters at P. are too rocked back to do anything against the follow-up bombing.

No Japanese losses

No Allied losses

Airbase hits 8
Airbase supply hits 5
Runway hits 44

7) China has normal daily bombing. Japan attacks several core railroad hexes, including abandoned Chengchow. The Chinese are done with railroads now, converting all formations to gray and yellow roads. In the northern river basin, slow movement of the northernmost regiment combined with a 1-VP per turn loss for Urimachi (sp?) cause the Allies to divert that LCU to that base, to remain and squat. I doubt Japan will ever go that far north in China, and losing 30-VPs a month to gain a regiment is stupid. I never should have done a wholesale movement from the north anyway.

8) Pontianak fell last turn with no visibility as to why. Couldn't be Rowboats given NW Borneo make-up, so Port strikes from Palembang mounted to try to catch unloading merchants. Two Zeros meet the Dutch who do 1 Port hit and get away with no losses. Unclear if LRCAP, carriers, or organic unit already. No read on LCUs present during the movie. Singkawang continues in Allied hands.

9) B-17 raid on Miri from Batavia battles many Oscars and gets no hits due to disruption. No losses, but many Forts damaged. I can see now why PBEM Japanese players hate them. They're tanks.

10) B-17s from Pearl hit Johnson and destroy a Betty on the ground.

11) A LR sweep on Hilo by KB Zeros exchanges two lost for two P-40s lost. This is prep for a full-bore KB strike later:

Afternoon Air attack on Lahaina , at 182,108

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 40 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 17 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 35
B5N1 Kate x 4
B5N2 Kate x 87
D3A1 Val x 54

Allied aircraft
P-36A Mohawk x 5
P-40B Warhawk x 22
P-40E Warhawk x 8
F4F-3A Wildcat x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed
B5N2 Kate: 2 damaged
D3A1 Val: 3 destroyed, 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-36A Mohawk: 1 destroyed
P-40B Warhawk: 2 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
xAK Jacob Luckenbach, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage (sinks)

Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Port hits 14
Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 2

This raid is a pure Allied win. Not being smug, but it is. Local CAP feeds in additional planes all through the encounter, some from Pearl on LRCAP, so ratios are roughly 24 Allied to 30 Zeros throughout the fight. The CAP is stacked, and there are many Zero diving attacks, but eventualy the Americans do burn through to the Vals and rough them up a lot. Yes, one large xAK is lost, but three more are recieved by the Allies at the end of the turn. The Allies never lack for merchants. The Luckenbach was part of a TF which brought the 2nd Marine defense unit to the island, and it's all ashore. Only supplies being unloaded. The Americans can keep doing this sort of thing a long time. I just don't understand what the overall objective is at Hawaii. Broken record I know, but I don't. Every day the KB hangs around it's chased by a LOT of subs. One might get lucky. And it's burning fuel and accumulating system damage. I'm not bringing the USN carriers out with the planes they have right now. Maybe that's his hope? Don't know. But I re-vectored all the subs in the region last turn and will again next. One might get lucky.

12) Amphibious Assault at Sandakan (70,88). Vacant NE Borneo base. Next stop is Balikpapan, which should put up a defense.

13) Lonely base force at Victoria Point moving toward Chumpton met by tank regiment coming other way. VP falls. (duh.) Base force remnants retreat into jungle.

14) Other: About a week until many forces sent to CT on first day arrive there. Over forty transports in CT waiting.

Five plane P-38 Lightning unit at Pearl as a "sweep surprise" in the next ten days. Very slow repair by Pearl aviation guys. There's no backstop for them; they're all she wrote for a long, long time.

USA Banshee DBs, only on the map for a short time, have been distributed to PM (1) in anticipation of landings in Lae area, 1 to Soerbaja for possible use at Balilpapan, and 1 to Cocos I. for transhippment to Batavia/Palembang. These planes are excellent xAK killers in my AI experience, and are use-it-before-lose-it units. Against the AI I use them all in PM as the AI is always ashore in NG by now. In this game they have to go look for work.

[Crackaces]

From what I know about scenario #2 .. the IJ produce aircraft and pilots like Lays potato chips so the pilot and planes are a commodity traded for space and time. Nothing like Scenario #1 as you well know. Somebody could interject, but in scenario #2 there is such an injection of new pilots in 1944 that it busts Heavy Industry.

I think it takes a big punch in the nose in Scenario #2 rather than a slow bleed, otherwise the IJ last 'till 1946 ..

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

From what I know about scenario #2 .. the IJ produce aircraft and pilots like Lays potato chips so the pilot and planes are a commodity traded for space and time. Nothing like Scenario #1 as you well know. Somebody could interject, but in scenario #2 there is such an injection of new pilots in 1944 that it busts Heavy Industry.

I think it takes a big punch in the nose in Scenario #2 rather than a slow bleed, otherwise the IJ last 'till 1946 ..

True, Scen 2 gives them a lot to start with. The HI sink later due to pilots is pretty extreme. When I played the AI as Japan for a little while though even early on pilots were costing me about half my HI at the end of the month since I hadn't taken the big HI generators yet. Neither has Mike here. He also has enough fuel for a long time, but he hasn't taken much of that either, and he's using a lot roaming so far east.

Hawaii is a hail Mary objective, but other players have taken it, or nearly. But not this way. He has to get some men ashore at an air field base pretty soon. The USN is tied down here, but I don't have a lot of better places for it to be right now. I've never been one to run my carriers all over the DEI. And I have no westbound convoys.

[jeffk3510]

I am coming in a bit late.. but that seems to be a waste of high quality pilots and airframes at the moment on his part...maybe I don't know the whole picture..

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

I am coming in a bit late.. but that seems to be a waste of high quality pilots and airframes at the moment on his part...maybe I don't know the whole picture..

Maybe he's just trying to pull my pools down. If so it's working. Every P-40 made immediately goes out the door. The Brits and Dutch are zeroed. I've been trying to use the ships' AA suites as aux. forces by forming them and then standing them in the harbor, undocked. So far it's working OK. If somebody gets hit the yards are right there. (BTW, the bomb hit on Warspite did 5 system damage only.)

Pearl has over 150,000 supply and makes a little every day. It's not hard to get supply in from the WC and with a 9 Port and Port Service units (I think there are two there) big convoys unload very quickly and are gone again. You can't do what he's doing to Singers or Clark with just the KB. It's not built for that.

I keep thinking he's waiting for huge, LCU-loaded convoys to come. So far, nada. I got intel last trun that an infantry regiment left Kwajalein, but my best guess is that's either Wake or Midway, and probably Wake. If so it'll be fun. Wake is half way to Forts 4, has 1000 supply and another 1-ship TF heaidng in, rested pilots, and two subs in front of the landing zones.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

When I played the AI as Japan for a little while though even early on pilots were costing me about half my HI at the end of the month since I hadn't taken the big HI generators yet. Neither has Mike here. He also has enough fuel for a long time, but he hasn't taken much of that either, and he's using a lot roaming so far east.

Yup. February 1, 1942 in scenario 2 PBEM. Transition to a new month cost me 35,504 HI for pilot training, roughly half of my HI production for the month of January. This will make the late war a brutal scrounging of HI points for the 'bank'.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

When I played the AI as Japan for a little while though even early on pilots were costing me about half my HI at the end of the month since I hadn't taken the big HI generators yet. Neither has Mike here. He also has enough fuel for a long time, but he hasn't taken much of that either, and he's using a lot roaming so far east.

Yup. February 1, 1942 in scenario 2 PBEM. Transition to a new month cost me 35,504 HI for pilot training, roughly half of my HI production for the month of January. This will make the late war a brutal scrounging of HI points for the 'bank'.

I have not played scenario #2 .. but PzB was pretty upset toward the end of his game with AndyMac .. In my opinion this needs to be a part of the IJ strategy that the piper must be paid for the Adolf Hitler like visions of world conquest ... [;)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
In my opinion this needs to be a part of the IJ strategy that the piper must be paid for the Adolf Hitler like visions of world conquest ... [;)]

I don't necessarily disagree. The other worldly research, production and pilot training comes at a price. Still, if this means that defenses around HI production areas can hold longer, it may make it a feasible trade-off.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
In my opinion this needs to be a part of the IJ strategy that the piper must be paid for the Adolf Hitler like visions of world conquest ... [;)]

I don't necessarily disagree. The other worldly research, production and pilot training comes at a price. Still, if this means that defenses around HI production areas can hold longer, it may make it a feasible trade-off.

I am just saying ... don't say the game is borked when the Piper has to be paid and the economy collapses [8D] Rather it has to be figured in as the strategy begning day one ..

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
In my opinion this needs to be a part of the IJ strategy that the piper must be paid for the Adolf Hitler like visions of world conquest ... [;)]

I don't necessarily disagree. The other worldly research, production and pilot training comes at a price. Still, if this means that defenses around HI production areas can hold longer, it may make it a feasible trade-off.

I am just saying ... don't say the game is borked when the Piper has to be paid and the economy collapses [8D] Rather it has to be figured in as the strategy begning day one ..

Yes. I think your point (in your first post on the matter) was clear.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
In my opinion this needs to be a part of the IJ strategy that the piper must be paid for the Adolf Hitler like visions of world conquest ... [;)]

I don't necessarily disagree. The other worldly research, production and pilot training comes at a price. Still, if this means that defenses around HI production areas can hold longer, it may make it a feasible trade-off.

I am just saying ... don't say the game is borked when the Piper has to be paid and the economy collapses [8D] Rather it has to be figured in as the strategy begning day one ..

It seems to me that trying to take Hawaii in 1942 shows less of a concern about the end game than not. If Hawaii is taken then auto-vic is definitely on the table waiting to be eaten. If Hawaii is attempted and fails, then, well, the other thing.

[Bullwinkle58]

Rangoon falls. Oof. A precursor of the Tracker screen for Singers and Bataan. Dark days . . .

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy




I don't necessarily disagree. The other worldly research, production and pilot training comes at a price. Still, if this means that defenses around HI production areas can hold longer, it may make it a feasible trade-off.

I am just saying ... don't say the game is borked when the Piper has to be paid and the economy collapses [8D] Rather it has to be figured in as the strategy begning day one ..

It seems to me that trying to take Hawaii in 1942 shows less of a concern about the end game than not. If Hawaii is taken then auto-vic is definitely on the table waiting to be eaten. If Hawaii is attempted and fails, then, well, the other thing.

Agreed. If attempted and failed, expect the crash of the Japanese economy due to failure to secure (more) important sites in the DEI in a timely fashion. Unfortunately, this will more likely than not mean you never see an endgame and this game gets dropped or prematurely surrendered. Hope not, but there you go.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Crackaces




I am just saying ... don't say the game is borked when the Piper has to be paid and the economy collapses [8D] Rather it has to be figured in as the strategy begning day one ..

It seems to me that trying to take Hawaii in 1942 shows less of a concern about the end game than not. If Hawaii is taken then auto-vic is definitely on the table waiting to be eaten. If Hawaii is attempted and fails, then, well, the other thing.

Agreed. If attempted and failed, expect the crash of the Japanese economy due to failure to secure (more) important sites in the DEI in a timely fashion. Unfortunately, this will more likely than not mean you never see an endgame and this game gets dropped or prematurely surrendered. Hope not, but there you go.

That is where I was going with my comments ... Huge gamble that will probably fail and the IJ economy completely crashes in Mar 1944 for the reasons eloquently stated . the DEI must be seized on fuel / HI saved for the rainny days to come .. but I sense I lack of planning that far in the future ..

[Bullwinkle58]

January 11, 1942

A Bit Too Close

Strange turn. Not happy in some ways. But nevertheless, VPs in the black by 38 when next turn arrives.

1) Mines at work. R-68 penetrates Hilo, hits, sinks. TWO I-boats come into Pearl Harbor. Don't know if ordered or on react. One hits a mine, FOW says I-1, but we'll see. Sunk sound heard, also we'll see. Combat events sez:

"Explosion in minefield at Pearl Harbor - cause unknown
Observers report activity in water at Pearl Harbor"

Then I-16 does this. Crap!!

Sub attack near Pearl Harbor at 180,107

Japanese Ships
SS I-16

Allied Ships
BB Warspite, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CL Helena
DD Craven
DD Phelps
DD Selfridge
DD Preston
DD Gridley

SS I-16 launches 8 torpedoes at BB Warspite
I-16 bottoming out ....
DD Phelps fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Selfridge fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Preston fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Gridley fails to find sub and abandons search
Escort abandons search for sub

Warspite barely lives with 97 floatation damage, 79 of it major. I don't have room in the yards for her, but in she must go, regardless.

2) USS Triton, near Kwajalein which has lit up with intel for two days, moves toward Wake to supplement the two boats already there. She is attacked twice in transit by separate PB-led ASW groups, giving Japan a two-point course toward Wake if they are paying attention. She will be re-zoned.

3) The Bataan PTs go hunting north again and find the same 2CL/2DD TF still hanging around San Fernando. Don't know what's up there. No losses to either side.

4) Sandakan: Dutch sub shoots and misses at DD/PB/2 xAK landing TF. Part of infantry BN lands and takes open base.

5) Landings begin at defended Puerto Princesa. 91st Naval Gds.

6) Bombing at Bataan, Singers, Palembang, various Chinese bases.

7) Refugee Chinese bombers hit refinery at Rangoon and do 4 Refinery points damage. Only the single tank unit is at Rangoon, so bombing can proceed until aviation unit trains in. Refineries worthless until up-country oil is taken, but every bit helps deny him future HI points.

8) The retreated base force from Victoria Point is bombed by Lilys. Just for grins I tell it to march on Chumpton in case he left it open when the tanks went to VP. Maybe a one-turn joke, but the Allies need the relief.

(9) Japanese recon LCU is at Singkawang. Bombing attempted from Palembang with no hits. Sing. has a very small garrison since most were air-lifted out to Palembang. It will fall easily, which will make the air environment in that corner of the map untenable for most of 1942 at least. Intel is recieved that an I-boat is headed for Merak. It is lightly mined, as is Oosthaven.

(Also get intel that an xAK is headed to Pearl with an infantry regiment, so . . .)

10) 16th Infanty REg. is still in the Mersing hex. It doesn't have a movement dot. Perhaps it is waiting for supply since its ships were sunk upon landing. Malacca is occupied. All Allied units in Malaysia are in Singers now.

11) Chengchow is taken by the 35th Division, opening the railroad southwest.

12) Calcutta's AF goes to 6. Close to the level 7 I need on mainland Asia to do upgrades.

[Crackaces]

16th Infanty REg. is still in the Mersing hex. It doesn't have a movement dot. Perhaps it is waiting for supply since its ships were sunk upon landing. Malacca is occupied. All Allied units in Malaysia are in Singers now.

It might be worth the 150 PP to replace Percival with anybody else. In my current game it did not extend the date of surrender, but ?Smith? an aggressive high land rating General made the affair very bloody before the surrender. My opponent did shock attacks, and it is my observation that agressiveness somehow plays into the combat adjusted AV with shock attacks. Anyway N=1 replacing Percival cost the IJA some squads .. squads that needed replacement rather than being able to roam in Burma .. or elsewhere ..

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

16th Infanty REg. is still in the Mersing hex. It doesn't have a movement dot. Perhaps it is waiting for supply since its ships were sunk upon landing. Malacca is occupied. All Allied units in Malaysia are in Singers now.

It might be worth the 150 PP to replace Percival with anybody else. In my current game it did not extend the date of surrender, but ?Smith? an aggressive high land rating General made the affair very bloody before the surrender. My opponent did shock attacks, and it is my observation that agressiveness somehow plays into the combat adjusted AV with shock attacks. Anyway N=1 replacing Percival cost the IJA some squads .. squads that needed replacement rather than being able to roam in Burma .. or elsewhere ..

Good idea. I don't have 150 right now, but I can get them.

[Chickenboy]

But you'd replace him in turn before Singapore falls, right?

[Canoerebel]

I've replaced Percival twice.  I'm not sure it was a big help.  In the first instance, his command had been moved to Palemang, which was never attacked.  On the second occasion, Japan just bottled up Singapore until supplies ran out and then took the fortification without much difficulty.
 
I'd replace Percival if his HQ unit is going to take part in a signficiant defensive struggle where the Allies have a chance of slow Japan, but not if it's a traditional "Singapore finally runs out of supply and falls easily" situation.  In that case it might be better to spend the PPs elsewhere.  But if you've got a shot at slowing Japan at Singers, or if you've moved the HQ unit, it can be a worthwhile expenditure.

[bradfordkay]

I'm with Dan here. Why allow a better leader to be captured in Singapore?