Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

[Lokasenna]

Air Losses

Here's a nice shot of something that is getting a little more common [;)]. On this past day, a MechaJill group from Rabaul tried to sink some xAKLs and SCs at Milne Bay. He bagged 1 xAKL and nothing else. On CAP in this hex was a 54-plane Hurricane IIc group. The strike was Jills and Oscars - 43 kills in a single day, although the unit was only credited with 41 (not sure how that happened).



The Georges were lost over Nauru Island, where he tried to sweep from Makin and Kusaie with about 60 in total. I had 80-some planes on CAP, mostly Hellcats but with a group of Thunderbolts as well. Almost complete butchery.

I am hoping that his torpedo pilot quality is suffering. I sure have shot down a lot of Jills/Kates, Bettys, and Nells in this game: 971 between A2A and flak. The Hellcat is my highest-A2A-loss plane. His Oscars, Tojos, Zeros, Bettys, and Kates all have more. George is getting close.

[Lokasenna]

And here's that Hurricane group. That top pilot got ace in a day [:)]. Their Defense skill isn't very high, but it'll do for now...

[Lokasenna]

Victory Points

And here's victory points. It's worth noting that Chungking and Chengtu are over 1/3 of his Base VPs... I think retaking them is something I need to be looking at, even if it's not until 1945... I will begin recon on them once I have INFp divisions... I think them a likely place to look for the bump that takes me over the hump. Literally over the Hump in that hypothetical case, actually.



I should go find some other completed games and see what the VP ratios were like at a similar date...

1.891:1 is ahead of my haphazard goal of 2:1 by 1/1/1944. I'm now seeing if I can get to 1.750:1.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Air Losses

Here's a nice shot of something that is getting a little more common [;)]. On this past day, a MechaJill group from Rabaul tried to sink some xAKLs and SCs at Milne Bay. He bagged 1 xAKL and nothing else. On CAP in this hex was a 54-plane Hurricane IIc group. The strike was Jills and Oscars - 43 kills in a single day, although the unit was only credited with 41 (not sure how that happened).

Not sure if the squadron gets credit of a kill if the pilot of a damaged plane crashes it on landing. The routine counting A-A kills might count it but maybe the credit routine sums up the pilot kill credits that only include op losses on the way home, not on landing?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

And here's that Hurricane group. That top pilot got ace in a day [:)]. Their Defense skill isn't very high, but it'll do for now...

I train my Air Skill for fighters at 5000 feet (escort) and 10000 feet (sweep) which results in the defence skill rising at pretty much the same rate as the air skill.

EDIT: PS - I usually train them a bit (about a month) in Low Ground at 1000 feet as well, both to pump up the defence skill and to make them useful for attacking ground units that need to be slowed down.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Air Losses

Here's a nice shot of something that is getting a little more common [;)]. On this past day, a MechaJill group from Rabaul tried to sink some xAKLs and SCs at Milne Bay. He bagged 1 xAKL and nothing else. On CAP in this hex was a 54-plane Hurricane IIc group. The strike was Jills and Oscars - 43 kills in a single day, although the unit was only credited with 41 (not sure how that happened).

Not sure if the squadron gets credit of a kill if the pilot of a damaged plane crashes it on landing. The routine counting A-A kills might count it but maybe the credit routine sums up the pilot kill credits that only include op losses on the way home, not on landing?

I added incorrectly, actually. Re-watched the replay and the Oscars were shot down in northern China. The A6M5s were shot down over Milne Bay.


I usually train my fighter pilots in strafe skill, which increases Defense pretty well. However, I was short on British pilots to fill out these 3 54-plane units... These guys got to where they are basically from running CAP after minimal training.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Air Losses

Here's a nice shot of something that is getting a little more common [;)]. On this past day, a MechaJill group from Rabaul tried to sink some xAKLs and SCs at Milne Bay. He bagged 1 xAKL and nothing else. On CAP in this hex was a 54-plane Hurricane IIc group. The strike was Jills and Oscars - 43 kills in a single day, although the unit was only credited with 41 (not sure how that happened).

Not sure if the squadron gets credit of a kill if the pilot of a damaged plane crashes it on landing. The routine counting A-A kills might count it but maybe the credit routine sums up the pilot kill credits that only include op losses on the way home, not on landing?

I added incorrectly, actually. Re-watched the replay and the Oscars were shot down in northern China. The A6M5s were shot down over Milne Bay.


I usually train my fighter pilots in strafe skill, which increases Defense pretty well. However, I was short on British pilots to fill out these 3 54-plane units... These guys got to where they are basically from running CAP after minimal training.

Yeah - I figured it was something like that - "When you are up to your a** in alligators ..."[:D]

[Lokasenna]

Here's the recon picture for October 30.

KB still at Truk. Looks like a better DL on the second KB today.

Transports? at Ponape.

SCTF at Kusaie... this is a target. I don't think he's baiting me here, I think he is trying to defend from Fletcher bombardments of the airfield. I have 3 DD TFs and a CV TF moving into position to strike here on the 31st, if he stays. My guess is that this is his 3 remaining Takao CAs and 3 DDs, which is a SCTF he likes to use.

Hard to tell what that TF at Rabaul is. It has been reporting at 10x BB for weeks but no planes reported. Maybe I just have really poor DL on a TK TF that has an AV and DDs in it?

[obvert]

That Rabaul TF looks like BB/CA to me, jus the same as the ones in my game that are confirmed BBs.

[Lokasenna]

Here's the Gilberts. There's another turn after this one so far, but I haven't sent it in yet. Basically, the SCTF at Kusaie remains and my DD TFs from Luganville are ready to move in with the CVs.

However, KB has left Truk, seemingly for Rabaul... that doesn't have any implications for the raid here, as I will retreat after the strike (which will hit the airfield if the ships leave), but it does have implications for Shortlands/Torokina. I may have to delay that operation until after moving on Taberfane/etc, to see if he will move it west in a vain attempt to preserve his perimeter.


If it just sits at Rabaul, then I need to reexamine my plans for Shortlands/Torokina and think about doing it all with landing craft from Munda... all muscle, no finesse.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

That Rabaul TF looks like BB/CA to me, jus the same as the ones in my game that are confirmed BBs.

That's what I thought too. I haven't gotten s**t for SIGINT on combat ships this game other than 2 pings on Akagi months ago.

If that's the case... it's been many months since I've seen IJN BBs in action, so even if he had a favored TF composition then it could be wildly different now. I'm only 50% confident in the exact composition of the TF at Kusaie because he has used it recently, and I've gotten sightings with subs as it's steamed around CENTPAC.

The Rabaul TF could be anything from all 4 Kongos (which he seems to have broken away from KB? At least he did in the past) to his remaining slower BBs. Might have some Aganos in there also...

I don't think he built the Yamatos.

[Lokasenna]

October 29-30

I rarely do daily updates, but due to the pace of the turns lately, I've got the time.

All the action focuses around CENTPAC these days...

Subs
I noticed several TFs of merchies at Hansa Bay, so sent a couple of subs. They score: Pompano cripples an xAP there overnight on the 29th, and then attacks another with her gun. No IJN escorts...

Flasher sinks an E outside of Kagoshima, off Kyushu.

Skate sinks an AKE at Rabaul - why doesn't he disband these in port?

Tarpon confirms the composition of the "PB TF" outside Ponape - it is indeed Ansyu-class PBs.

Solomons/Coral Sea
Jugs sweep an empty Shortlands again. I stand them down on the 30th. 90 Avengers, 10 Venturas, and 16 B-25s bomb the airfield on both days. Looking to destroy all of his supply stockpiles here, prior to invading.

On the 29th, a full Lily divebomber sentai, escorted by just 6 A6M5s, tries to strike the landing craft at Milne Bay. They are shot down to a man by that Hurricane unit and their American friends in P-40s. This will help reduce his LBA presence for the Shortlands op... I will probably send in a decoy TF first under some good CAP from Munda to try to whittle down that big Jill unit.

Gilberts
On the 29th, 29 B-25s try to bomb the airfield at Tarawa, as I've been doing lately to keep it down. However, a wild LRCAP appears! From Makin. Georges and Oscar-IIb's. I lose 4 B-25s and still damage the airfield.

On the 30th, I sweep the place with 50 Jugs from Nauru. His CAP gets obliterated - 7 Jugs lost (4 in the air) for over 19 kills and 4 ops losses.

P-38s sweep Kusaie in preparation for a CV raid on October 31... Jacks are on CAP and we win the day with about 16 kills (+9 ops) to 9 losses (6 A2A + 3 ops). However, 75 fighters are still reported there on the 31st...

[Lokasenna]

What's he doing? Looks like some fighters have left Rabaul... he used to have 295-297 reported there. My DL could have dropped, I suppose... but the bomber numbers track with a recent loss of 27 Lilys. The Jill unit is hiding, I think perhaps at Truk (95 reported there).

He could be reacting to my CVE TF presence near Lunga. He has sighted them for several days now, though DL has been low. DL 1/4 yesterday, and DL 2/5 today. They are at the dot island SW of Lunga - Rennell, I think. I have them separated from my amphib TFs, which are forming up SE of Rossel Island, deliberately. The CVEs are ridiculously easy to spot as I have them all grouped together. 2 are with the amphibs, with minimal escorts...

I'll just do a shot of that area next. But him sighting my CVEs is probably telegraphing my move here. Perhaps better if I scrub the plan, let him keep seeing the CVEs, and do something else - like that move by Darwin.



You can see my Supply/Fuel at Pearl here [:D].

[JocMeister]

When in doubt either commit with the kitchen sink or do something else. [:)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

When in doubt either commit with the kitchen sink or do something else. [:)]

Yep, that's my thoughts. And I don't have the kitchen sink available, so I think it's time for something else. I'll wait a day to be sure, but then go ahead and land the Shortlands stuff at Tulagi or Lunga and shuttle it up with landing craft. The only reason I was going to use my assault shipping was because I wanted to land 2 divisions to be absolutely sure I throttled his men here, and quickly. I'll use small xAPs and LCIs to get there from Munda if I have to. If I use 2-3 of those TFs initially, he shouldn't be able to knock my guys off and I can just keep shuttling until I have enough to attack...

[Lokasenna]

Here's the Coral Sea.



The 40th USA ID finishes prep for Shortlands today... Also loading up is the 164th Infantry Rgt, which is prepped. South Pacific Command HQ is at Tulagi and prepped for Shortlands (within command range). Some auxiliary units are at Luganville, Tulagi, and Munda.

Just off screen to the SE is my other CV TF, which includes the still-damaged (7 major float) CV Yorktown, who were the lucky winners in the F4U-1A PDU-on lottery. I have enough to upgrade another unit, but will put it on one of the CVs heading for the Arafura, once they reach Townsville for staging.

At this point, I am trying to consolidate my air power again. I need to redistribute my bombers from Portland Roads so that I can free up all of those fighters that are there protecting them from potential sneaky attacks from Hansa Bay... It would help tremendously with airpower for both Gove/Darwin and my operations there, and for Munda. But first, those bombers need to repair from recent heavy use... about 1/3 of the planes are grounded. It will be several more days. If need be, I can launch strikes against Rabaul from Lunga now despite it being AF8 instead of AF9 like Portland Roads.


Also of note is the recent presence of his subs here. With his operational pattern, he only deploys subs in concentrations like this when he expects an invasion. There are at least 3 operating here, and I think more like 4-5.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

That Rabaul TF looks like BB/CA to me, jus the same as the ones in my game that are confirmed BBs.

That's what I thought too. I haven't gotten s**t for SIGINT on combat ships this game other than 2 pings on Akagi months ago.

If that's the case... it's been many months since I've seen IJN BBs in action, so even if he had a favored TF composition then it could be wildly different now. I'm only 50% confident in the exact composition of the TF at Kusaie because he has used it recently, and I've gotten sightings with subs as it's steamed around CENTPAC.

The Rabaul TF could be anything from all 4 Kongos (which he seems to have broken away from KB? At least he did in the past) to his remaining slower BBs. Might have some Aganos in there also...

I don't think he built the Yamatos.

Try some night bombing as recon. I got positive IDs on several BBs and their floatplanes!

The KB being shown is a sign that he thinks something is imminent and he wants you to think twice without actually having to use his hammer. He also must feel he knows you're not now going to land in Malaya.

So, maybe you should feint as if you are going to do something elsewhere.

[JocMeister]

Why are you mixing Fletchers with other DDs? That is untidy. [:)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

That Rabaul TF looks like BB/CA to me, jus the same as the ones in my game that are confirmed BBs.

That's what I thought too. I haven't gotten s**t for SIGINT on combat ships this game other than 2 pings on Akagi months ago.

If that's the case... it's been many months since I've seen IJN BBs in action, so even if he had a favored TF composition then it could be wildly different now. I'm only 50% confident in the exact composition of the TF at Kusaie because he has used it recently, and I've gotten sightings with subs as it's steamed around CENTPAC.

The Rabaul TF could be anything from all 4 Kongos (which he seems to have broken away from KB? At least he did in the past) to his remaining slower BBs. Might have some Aganos in there also...

I don't think he built the Yamatos.

Try some night bombing as recon. I got positive IDs on several BBs and their floatplanes!

The KB being shown is a sign that he thinks something is imminent and he wants you to think twice without actually having to use his hammer. He also must feel he knows you're not now going to land in Malaya.

So, maybe you should feint as if you are going to do something elsewhere.

He's got a decent night CAP up with actual night fighters, or at least he did last time I bombed Rabaul. I don't want to night naval bomb to get no hits and lose a bunch of planes... I don't have a base close enough anyway, since I can't CAP Munda quite yet.


True enough on KB. I haven't kept continuous recon on Truk, so it's possible that he moved them there (I think from being disbanded at Ponape) and didn't realize I saw them until 2 turns later. We'll see where they end up. If they end up at Rabaul, where he knows I can see them, then I think it's as you say. If they disappear entirely, probably disbanded at one of those bases... then he wants to use them, I think. And I'll try to bomb them at anchor if he does that. I think it more likely he's heading to Rabaul.

As for a feint... I'm thinking the raid on Kusaie is going to get his attention if it goes as planned.

[Lokasenna]

Alright, so that didn't go as planned... on the plus side, it's all quiet. Minimal detection on my forces.



The DDs in the CV TF are thirsty, so I'm going to give them a drink and mull a strike against Mili. It looks like he brought fighters from Rabaul to Kusaie. I am anticipating a Betty unit at Mili and a Zero Sentai on strike - they sunk an xAP outside Nonouti today. There are pros/cons, here.

Pros: I would like to make him think he can't commit his naval forces without losing them. Also, I'd like to bag a couple of CAs from the air.

Cons: That could be a lot of torpedo bombers at Mili...and that could be bad.

After refueling, I've got movement 2(1). Will go camp out near Nauru and wait a day. I'm going to hold off on sweeping Mili from Nauru, which just reached AF5 and has some P-38s available. I'll do some night bombing of Mili tomorrow to try to soften those units, and I might send the Fletchers in first rather than using them as cleanup. Or maybe 6 of them will do one of each...