Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I'm pretty sure that the industry is only at risk until the city is taken. If the Allies try to turn the tables and attack after they lose the city/base then my guess is that their results will be so bad that the industry won't get hit.

"»» Captured Heavy Industry is halved each time it is captured. For example, a
50 point Heavy Industry that is captured is reduced to 25; if it is captured
again, it is reduced by half again to 12 (fractions are rounded down)."

I was under the impression that engineers would also effect this but after reading the manual I see that engineers can damage everything EXCEPT heavy industry. I guess the idea is that heavy machinery is so large and heavy that it isn't practical for engineers to destroy them? Seems sort of silly to me:

When the enemy captures specialty (i.e., non-Heavy Industry) Industry hexes, a check is made
to see if any damage occurs to the facilities before capture. If defending engineers were present
in the hex, the chance and severity of damage is increased with the number of engineers that
were present.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
"»» Captured Heavy Industry is halved each time it is captured. For example, a
50 point Heavy Industry that is captured is reduced to 25; if it is captured
again, it is reduced by half again to 12 (fractions are rounded down)."

Right, but the point is that there is no way the Allies will be able to recapture it right after they lose it. And even short of capturing it, I figure that by the time they lose the base they will be in such bad shape that any attack they make will have little chance of damaging the industry.

Bullwinkle is just quoting the manual; I don't think he is implying that Panjack will realistically take it aback any time soon.

[Panjack]

Thanks all, again, for comments and insights.

Calcutta is lightly defended with only two Indian Bdes (now behind 3 forts), providing just enough defense to, I hope, cause industry to get destroyed as the city is taken. Who knows if that will happen. I don't plan on having these units leave the city. They are not surrounded yet, but they have 60k of supplies which I think should hold them out until they get overwhelmed by the Japanese. Brave men fighting to the last!

At this point I'm likely going to leave Madras also fairly undefended. The current plan is to induce Q-Ball to focus north of Calcutta by retaking Ranchi (which might have just capitulated all on its own just due to the proximity of the Japanese). Two tank units are moving from the NE to retake the city. I have some serious units on strat at Nagpur ready to move, perhaps to Ranchi, .

A tank unit is moving to Cuttack, safe from BB bombardment, to slow down movement by small units towards Viz and, for a while at least, to keep the Japanese unit at Viz all alone and lonely. If the CD unit moving next to Viz is left alone I might then move infantry units there and walk them to Viz.

I still have a feeling Japan will attack on the West coast of India. I'll try to keep any serious units that leave Karachi and Bombay near the RR so they can rush back if major landings occur near those two cities.

But, all is tentative because, well, I'm not really sure what I'm doing! My plan now is to engage in some mild offensive moves to distract Q-Ball a bit from his own designs.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack
Calcutta is lightly defended with only two Indian Bdes (now behind 3 forts), providing just enough defense to, I hope, cause industry to get destroyed as the city is taken. Who knows if that will happen. I don't plan on having these units leave the city. They are not surrounded yet, but they have 60k of supplies which I think should hold them out until they get overwhelmed by the Japanese. Brave men fighting to the last!

It's hard to find an example when leaving units to defend in 4x terrain is a bad idea. If you lose a couple of Indian brigades it will be well worth the delay.

ORIGINAL: Panjack
But, all is tentative because, well, I'm not really sure what I'm doing! My plan now is to engage in some mild offensive moves to distract Q-Ball a bit from his own designs.

Wise thinking. As the Allies early on it doesn't really hurt to be conservative when you are unsure of your situation. And I also agree that some small offensive moves, especially with tanks, is wise. It's common practice to send tanks ahead of infantry to capture RR junctions so that the infantry can be brought in quickly by rail. I believe the reason why the Japanese are dropping off so much supply at Viz is so that infantry can be brought by rail here for a quick offensive towards Madras. Which also leads me to believe that the Japanese don't intend to make landings near Bombay or Karachi but of course keep them defended.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Sure it was like what witpqs said. I bet it was a little unit coming down from the NE hex, with the goal of closing another exit door for your units in Calcutta. Basically he's trapping you there, to be sure that, when he attackswith 4 or 5 dvisions, your units in Calcutta will get destroyed and won't be able to retreat. It is a solid strategy by QBall imho. A good one. Japan can easily efford to lose 10 squads for this strategical goal.

At this point, to be honest, i keep on suggesting not to confide much on the ability of your troops to hold anything except real fortresses.
MAdras is a lost cause. If i was you i would try to keep Madras with minimal forces in order to be sure toget the most of the many reinforcement units that arrive there, but as soon as your way yo Bombay gets threatened (even by paras!), i'd be moving away

Yes it will trap the Allied units, but now that they are trapped they won't retreat. Won't this likely result in more extensive damage to the heavy industry in Calcutta? The Allies can easily afford to lose 1000 Indian squads for this strategic goal.

I don't think Panjack was intending to defend Calcutta except for the purpose of destroying the industry when the Japanese try to attack it. Panjack shouldn't be worrying about Bombay much at this point with the amphib bonus gone. Previously he mentioned that he had a whopping 1500 AV there; no way Japan is going to push them out. Still have to be careful but I think by now that Madras is worth making a stand given the security to the rear, especially if he can take Viza right now and delay a push on Madras for a few weeks.

If you're referring to the destruction (i.e., damaging) of industry centers when a city is taken... my experience is that there is absolutely no correlation.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: Panjack
Calcutta is lightly defended with only two Indian Bdes (now behind 3 forts), providing just enough defense to, I hope, cause industry to get destroyed as the city is taken. Who knows if that will happen. I don't plan on having these units leave the city. They are not surrounded yet, but they have 60k of supplies which I think should hold them out until they get overwhelmed by the Japanese. Brave men fighting to the last!

It's hard to find an example when leaving units to defend in 4x terrain is a bad idea. If you lose a couple of Indian brigades it will be well worth the delay.

ORIGINAL: Panjack
But, all is tentative because, well, I'm not really sure what I'm doing! My plan now is to engage in some mild offensive moves to distract Q-Ball a bit from his own designs.

Wise thinking. As the Allies early on it doesn't really hurt to be conservative when you are unsure of your situation. And I also agree that some small offensive moves, especially with tanks, is wise. It's common practice to send tanks ahead of infantry to capture RR junctions so that the infantry can be brought in quickly by rail. I believe the reason why the Japanese are dropping off so much supply at Viz is so that infantry can be brought by rail here for a quick offensive towards Madras. Which also leads me to believe that the Japanese don't intend to make landings near Bombay or Karachi but of course keep them defended.

I disagree here. I'm not as in love with terrain multipliers as you. I agree that delay is fine, but delay for the purpose of delay depends on the cost. If he wants Calcutta it's his. He can employ 5+ IDs plus arty without breaking a sweat. Two brigades is not nothing for the Allies to lose at this point. Indian army infantry squad replacement rates are paltry. 48/month through 3/43, then 60 through 2/44. If those two brigades are trashed they're gone. I'd use them as a mobile reserve elsewhere. Calcutta is a goner. It's the most logical take-and-stop economic target in India for a JFB. If it's attacked at all it will fall.

On the HI issue, yeah, I was just pointing out the manual on lose-retake. If Calcutta falls and is later re-taken the Allies have to plan on the HI-supply generation to be 25% of what it is now. It's very doable with supply from elsewhere including unlimited amounts that can be brought from CT and Aden, but it's a variable to remember. It's not worth two good brigades.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I disagree here. I'm not as in love with terrain multipliers as you. I agree that delay is fine, but delay for the purpose of delay depends on the cost. If he wants Calcutta it's his. He can employ 5+ IDs plus arty without breaking a sweat. Two brigades is not nothing for the Allies to lose at this point. Indian army infantry squad replacement rates are paltry. 48/month through 3/43, then 60 through 2/44. If those two brigades are trashed they're gone. I'd use them as a mobile reserve elsewhere. Calcutta is a goner. It's the most logical take-and-stop economic target in India for a JFB. If it's attacked at all it will fall.

On the HI issue, yeah, I was just pointing out the manual on lose-retake. If Calcutta falls and is later re-taken the Allies have to plan on the HI-supply generation to be 25% of what it is now. It's very doable with supply from elsewhere including unlimited amounts that can be brought from CT and Aden, but it's a variable to remember. It's not worth two good brigades.

I admit I do like my terrain multipliers. I like them even more when they have fort multipliers as well! 95% of the time I'm the guy arguing it is more important for the Allies to preserve LCUs than a take/hold strategic objectives but I still think this is an exception. Taking Calcutta is going to cost both time and disabled squads for the Japanese regardless of how many divisions are used. Certainly I think there is a very good chance that the Japanese will have more disabled squads than the Allies will have destroyed squads from the battle. Thus, Allies will come out with more available AV immediately after the battle than the Japanese and that's not counting reinforcements that may arrive during that time. If the Japanese were intending to make major moves in India post-Calcutta, this may just be the delay the Allies need to set up an effective line of defense in India. Of course if the Japanese intend to stop after Calcutta like you imply, your analysis is entirely correct as the disabled squads won't make any sort of difference at all. But I don't think that is the case here...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I disagree here. I'm not as in love with terrain multipliers as you. I agree that delay is fine, but delay for the purpose of delay depends on the cost. If he wants Calcutta it's his. He can employ 5+ IDs plus arty without breaking a sweat. Two brigades is not nothing for the Allies to lose at this point. Indian army infantry squad replacement rates are paltry. 48/month through 3/43, then 60 through 2/44. If those two brigades are trashed they're gone. I'd use them as a mobile reserve elsewhere. Calcutta is a goner. It's the most logical take-and-stop economic target in India for a JFB. If it's attacked at all it will fall.

On the HI issue, yeah, I was just pointing out the manual on lose-retake. If Calcutta falls and is later re-taken the Allies have to plan on the HI-supply generation to be 25% of what it is now. It's very doable with supply from elsewhere including unlimited amounts that can be brought from CT and Aden, but it's a variable to remember. It's not worth two good brigades.

I admit I do like my terrain multipliers. I like them even more when they have fort multipliers as well! 95% of the time I'm the guy arguing it is more important for the Allies to preserve LCUs than a take/hold strategic objectives but I still think this is an exception. Taking Calcutta is going to cost both time and disabled squads for the Japanese regardless of how many divisions are used. Certainly I think there is a very good chance that the Japanese will have more disabled squads than the Allies will have destroyed squads from the battle. Thus, Allies will come out with more available AV immediately after the battle than the Japanese and that's not counting reinforcements that may arrive during that time. If the Japanese were intending to make major moves in India post-Calcutta, this may just be the delay the Allies need to set up an effective line of defense in India. Of course if the Japanese intend to stop after Calcutta like you imply, your analysis is entirely correct as the disabled squads won't make any sort of difference at all. But I don't think that is the case here...

The issue to me is that the replacement mechanisms are wholly different. The Allies get a fixed flow and nothing, absolutely nothing, increases it. You can play around the fringes by disbanding base forces and the like--rob Peter to pay Paul--but the squads trickle in as they will.

Japan uses Arms points which are under their control.

Playing defense for disabled squads is also fine, except it's a matter of scale. I was being conservative with 5 IDs. Japan can easily get ten or more there. I have, in my game with Lokasenna, relied a lot on Forts as they don't eat groceries, but they're a false hope if the force ratios are too out of whack. Two brigades against 5-10 IDs with full combined arms support, plus bombers, is not going to delay much. And the IDs can roll forward with their disablements in-house. As Stalin allegedly said (attributions differ): "Quantity has a quality all of its own."

[witpqs]

...a false hope if the force ratios are too out of whack.

+1

And that is the heart of all of this. Those things are part of a tally; they don't short circuit that tally. Forts are great, field forts are great, anti-hard and anti-soft are great, terrain is great, and so on, but when the ocean comes calling the issue is decided by overwhelming numbers.

[Panjack]

April 8, 1942
-----------------
India: Intel says another Japanese ID is moving toward Chittagong. I don't think it's needed for Japan's current operations in Calcutta and environs so I'm supposing Japan will continue to move west or north of Calcutta. Additionally, what is reported as a 5-ship TF is now starting to move up the west coast of India. It appears to be coming from Columbo where a unit prepping for Bombay was reported a week or so ago.

A Japanese 2-BB bombardment TF just hit Madras and so I decided to pull the string on my move toward Viz while the BBs go to wherever they go to reload. The 7th Indian Division just arrived in Cocanada (one hex W of Viz). It takes two days to unload and then it will walk to Viz. A CD unit will arrive in two days in Cocanada. Its 6" guns will make loud popping sounds but otherwise probably would only hurt a BB with a fluke hit. But it's all I have.

Western Oz: Kalgoorlie is empty of Allied troops. Japanese 2E bombers supported by lots of fighters have appeared on the scene and it makes no sense to keep my units in that city holding bullseyes over their heads. Two wimpy tank units will be setting up camp 8+ hexes away from Kalgoorlie along the rail line and the road to Port Augusta to provide early warning of any land movement toward South Oz.

Noumea: Allied units continue to arrive. Another Japanese SCTF appears to be moving toward it. Nearby I have a CA SCTF waiting. The last set of engagements saw lots of firing but few hits. Maybe this time something more significant will happen.

China: Japanese units are disappearing from along the defensive line below Changsha. I can only suppose they are hitting the day spas and getting all rested and relaxed so to appear somewhere else in large numbers ready to fight. I'm starting to move units to a fallback MRL west and east of Tuyun. Every place else in China looks pretty stable, but Japan is making a move way north at Kiuchuan.

Aleutians: As the KB is far away (last seen off the west coast of Oz), the mice came out to play: the 8th Marine Rgt (with supporting players) invaded Adak and, on the same day, a parachute battalion landed on another small island nearby. Almost 2000 Japanese are on Adak, but they seem to be mostly building types, and have been subjected to bombing and bombarding over the past month. The Enterprise and Yorktown provided some local muscle. I don't know where the mini-KB is so I've been covering the area with lots of Cats and set up a number of pickets. However, that only 2 of the 5 US carriers appeared in the area means Japan can't be sure exactly where I will, or won't, appear for other minor harassment of Japanese holdings. The main goal of taking Adak is to bomb the level 2 airbase at Amchitka (which is still suffering from a BB bombardment from last week, performed to make sure no bombers from that island could threaten my carriers.)

[Panjack]

April 9-12, 1942
--------------
India: Calcutta is still holding out pretty well. The last four days saw 2 bombardments, 1 deliberate attack, and 1 shock attack. But none reduced the fort level and the units in the city didn't experience too much harm. But, still, it's just a matter of time before the city falls.

At the same time, the 36th India Brigade snuck out of the city and just might get away. The only unit now trapped in the city , beyond what are static units, is the 23rd Indian Brigade.

The 7th Indian Division, along with an Art unit, should arrive in Viz tomorrow. As of yet, no BB bombardment has occurred. Perhaps the unit is still unseen. As far as I can tell, only a single small Japanese unit is in Viz along with what might be a good store of supplies offloaded from Japanese transports. Things have gone better than I thought it would, but I won't know until the next turn if some surprise awaits the 7th in Viz. I certainly expect that one the 7th enters Viz that it will get bonked by BBs before it is able to leave the city (having defeated the Japanese unit and grabbed the supplies in the city).

The Japanese ships I thought were moving up the west coast turned out to be a bombardment group. They hit Cochin, which is where I have some Cats searching for any sign of an invasion. Perhaps the goal is to stop this search as an invasion might come down the road. But a unit that was reported as prepping for Karachi is now reported to be prepping for Auckland. My guess, then, is Karachi isn't a target for Japan but Bombay still is.

Western Oz: This region is now a Japanese province.

Noumea: I was expected a large battle between CA SCTFs but for some reason it didn't occur. I don't know what happened to the Japanese TF (which intel told me involved a half-dozen CAs). Q-Ball indicated that, yes, he had a SCTF in the area. No bombardment occurred at Noumea and no further sightings of the TF happened. Perhaps it is sneaking to Sydney, so I sent away unneeded aircraft and ships from the city. A small SCTF is sitting in front of the city but it is pretty underpowered. Or perhaps its planning to look for transports heading to Oz, but it seems bit over-powered for that. It occurs to me the Queen Mary is in the area (filled to the brim with troops), but with still with no detection. Next turn I will send it somewhere other then Sydney as, who knows, maybe this missing SCTF has spread itself out blocking the path to Sydney. I'm suddenly worried!

China: Japanese units continue to disappear between Changsha and Kukong. At the same time, Japanese recon flights have been seen over Mengtze (a bit SW of Kunming). Perhaps the next attack vector will be over the mountains. I have almost 300 AV and an HQ in that mountain hex but it is pretty isolated.

Aleutians: Adak is now in Allied hands as the Japanese units occurring the island were not able to stand up to a Marine Rgt.

[Panjack]

April 13-15, 1942
-----------------

India: A Bde snuck out of Calcutta but is slowly being destroyed from the air. Following the exit of this unit from Calcutta things turned for the worse in that city and the city fell on April 15.

I retook two cities to the NW of Calcutta (Ranchi and Jamshedpur) but am now leaving them: the Japanese units in Calcutta are moving toward them and I'm sure Japanese bombers will soon be operating from Calcutta and would be able to do harm to any defenders in those two cities.

When the 7th Indian Division arrived in Viz it found the city empty of Japanese troops and almost empty of supplies and fuel. It seems the Japanese unit there was evacuated by sea and the transports, I'm guessing, took away much of the supply that was there. The 7th is now moving to the NE to get away from the coast and away from clear terrain. For now I might leave the Division close to Viz to respond to any Japanese moves that direction.

I'm building up the airbases at Hyderabad and Cawnpore (both urban) and maybe Bhopal. In a couple of weeks the base at Hyderabad should be large enough for B-17s to attack Calcutta and other cities.

Western Oz: Still a Japanese province.

Eastern Oz: Japanese ASW ships attacked my sub defending Portland Roads. The Japanese landed a small force there long ago and Aussie armored units subsequently beat them up. Portland Roads remains a Japanese port as Betties were pummeling the armored units in clear terrain so they ran away to Cooktown. Perhaps Japan now plans to send land more units at Portland Roads.

Noumea and environs: Japanese carriers appeared west of Espiritu Santo and a whole bunch of BBs and CAs moved toward Noumea. All my ships fled and I only lost a AVD to carrier planes. The BBs/CAs bombarded Noumea but didn't do much harm as my guys hid in their level 3 fort. The Japanese carrier TF has now disappeared.

Both the Queen Eliz and Queen Mary (filled with most of a US infantry division) were headed to Sydney and Melbourne. But the proximity of the carriers (and the fact I don't now know where they are) and of lots of BBs/CAs made sending these ships to Oz a possible mistake. So both ships diverted to NZ. But it's hard unload those ships at the ports there as they are not big enough for the ships to dock. Unfortunately, a Japanese sub happened upon the Queen Mary and although all its torpedoes missed, it is now clear where the Queen Mary is headed. I moved a number of Cat units to NZ to hopefully find any Japanese ships that might come calling.

China: I still have no idea where most of the Japanese units disappearing from below Changsha are headed. Some units appear to be gathering at Kukong but I now have 1100 AV in the 3x hex above Kukong (the hex that my unit were completely displaced from a couple of weeks ago!) Changsha is still being bombed and bombarded but nothing major has happened there yet.

In the far north, Japanese units were moving toward Kiuchuan and, although I assumed they were the same small units I battled in that area before, it turns out a larger unit (and Independent Mixed Brigade) attacked my units in the sandy desert to the east of the city. But the two units attacking were poorly supplied and they lost badly. The Japanese are now retreating. So I'm attacking to take advantage of their lack of supply and now disabled units. It's like the reverse in the rest of China: a poorly supplied Japanese unit does battle with a well-supplied Chinese unit within range of a (in my case) small bomber unit to soften up the Japanese before battle.

Aleutians: Building up the recently-taken Adak.

[Panjack]

April 16, 1942
--------------

Noumea: I'm quite impressed with the protection provided by a level 3 fort when yet another bombardment TF hit Noumea.

[font="Courier New"]Night Naval bombardment of Noumea at 115,160 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Japanese Ships
BB Yamashiro
BB Fuso
BB Haruna
BB Kongo

Allied ground losses:
96 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
[/font]

The previous night, 5 CAs hit Noumea with equally minor damage to the troops.

During the day, a group of Japanese CVs set up shop in a most inconvenient place, south of Noumea on the route transports would take to Sydney. It looks like Q-Ball was hunting transports. Luckily the CVs only found a AVP and AM, which had stopped at Norfork Island as they didn't have the fuel to go further. They were sunk. That makes 2 AVPs sunk in the past two days; I like those little guys. [:(]

Carrier planes also flattened the airbase at Noumea but I'm sure it will be repaired pretty quickly.

As the CVs might move still further south, ships now at NZ will flee the more northern ports of that nation. If the carriers come even further south, I guess my guys will be heading to Antarctica!

China: My attack to the north went worse than I hoped, but tired, poorly supplied, and moving Japanese units seem to perform as poorly as Chinese units in the same situation. Even at 1-4 odds, my units gave worse than they got. At this point, I'll let the Japanese retreat as my troops are getting a bit low of supply.
[font="Courier New"]Ground combat at 83,26 (near Kiuchuan)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 4551 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 158

Defending force 7040 troops, 58 guns, 46 vehicles, Assault Value = 159

Allied adjusted assault: 100

Japanese adjusted defense: 448

Allied assault odds: 1 to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-), leaders(+), fatigue(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
218 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
138 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 18 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
303rd Brigade
34th Separate Brigade

Defending units:
4th Cavalry Brigade
2nd Ind.Mixed Brigade
[/font]

[Panjack]

April 17-19, 1942
------------------

India: Still no sign of a move by sea up the West Coast of India. I'm assuming units are now moving out of the captured Calcutta up toward the NW.

Western Oz: My goal now is convince more Japanese units to stay in Western Oz than Q-Ball desires and to, ideally, shoot down some planes. Perhaps I'll walk a big infantry unit up the RR along with a bunch of AA units, of which I have a lot in Oz.

Noumea: So far as I can tell, the Japanese carriers have left and I'm starting to move ships back to their original locations. The Queen Eliz is now overdue and I'm paying PPs for this error, but the ship should arrive in Sydney in two days or so.

China: Some of the Japanese units that have been disappearing from the line elsewhere have reappeared in the hex to the NE of Kukong. It's a full-house of 60k Japanese troops. They deliberate attacked last turn and the Chinese held, but the Chinese are all low in supply:

[font="Courier New"]Ground combat at 79,56 (near Kukong)
Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 49675 troops, 482 guns, 288 vehicles, Assault Value = 1466
Defending force 40513 troops, 181 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1099

Japanese adjusted assault: 925
Allied adjusted defense: 2461

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3562 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 290 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 23 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 15 disabled
Guns lost 16 (2 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1238 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 118 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Assaulting units:
12th Ind.Mixed Brigade
39th Division
116th Division
15th Division
11th Tank Regiment
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
1st Mortar Battalion
13th Army
6th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
10th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion

Defending units:
86th Chinese Corps
74th Chinese Corps
70th Chinese Corps
78th Chinese/B Corps
63rd Chinese/A Corps
[/font]

I'm anticipating having to fall back to new positions not too long down the road due to the back of supply. I'm already building up a couple of strong points where the new MLR will be located. I'm hoping that the new MLR will have fewer hexes I will need to defend strongly and that my units will have better mobility between key places along the line than does Japan. I don't want to give up the cities that generate supply, but holding them might be worse then just letting them fall into Japanese hands. But I don't know really what is best.

[Sangeli]

I think you are falling back too far at once. I think that you can hold the current lines near Kweilin and that the biggest vulnerability in China for you right now is the Changsha basin. Your defensive line there is partially compromised and its only a matter of time until the Japanese take the bases in 1x terrain behind Changsha. But there is plenty of 3x terrain to the west of the basin but in front of your new proposed line.

[Panjack]

I think you're right, and I'm not intended to move back to the future MLR in the near future (unless disaster strikes). But I do want to build up the key strong points now (building forts, getting units all rested up and fortified, etc). As you suggest, I'll fall back to immediate defensive lines instead of falling back all the way to the future, expected MLR.

It could be a month, 6 months, or a year before I'm at the future MLR.

My main concerns in China are two:
(1) The continual fall in supply (due to the relentless, large scale bombing by Japan). As can be seen in the map below, China is increasingly "The Land that Supply Forgot," as indicated by all the exclamation points, and
(2) What seems to be a change in strategy by Q-Ball. Before he spread out his forces and pushed at many places, but now he seems to be concentrating his forces much more than before to perhaps just relentlessly batter down my troops at key places.

He seems to be removing troops out of Changsha and from most other places to the SW. Amazingly, he has removed all but a single unit from what was once a key hex, NE of Kukong...a hex which I had actually lost a couple of weeks ago! He took significant losses in his last DA in that hex and his troops moved moved back to Kukong. He might be planning to move them forward again after a period of R&R or they might be moving elsewhere. My bombardment last turn revealed I have a 1000 to 73 AV advantage in that hex and am now attacking there, assuming I'll end up with a 2-1 battle once all is said-and-done. I don't expect great results, but I want to signal to Q-Ball that I might attack when he pulls back.

20k Japanese troops are moving toward, I'm assuming, the Kweilin area. Furthermore, troops that were once in Canton have disappeared from that city. Perhaps they sailed away; perhaps they are moving toward the Kweilin are unseen; perhaps they are going somewhere else. I'm moving troops to Kweilin in anticipation of a major offensive in that area.

I've been using more recon than before, which has noticeably helped seeing what is behind Japanese lines, but the relentless air attacks on air bases in the area has led to some losses of my recon planes.

[Panjack]

April 23, 1942
--------------

Land combat in China! Total casualties reached 12,000 in the day.

The battles included:
1. One big battle at a location where Ulysses S Grant, I fear, has taken control of the Japanese Army,
2. Two small victories for the Chinese. Two Chinese victories in the same day is a first, and
3. Two Chinese shock attacks by units that have been surrounded for months and are out of supply.

First, about 120 miles to the east of Sian nearly 100k soldiers clashed and casualties exceeded 6,000 men. I fear such costly battles might be part of Q-Ball's new US Grant-like approach.

[font="Courier New"]Ground combat at 86,41 (near Loyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 47500 troops, 390 guns, 310 vehicles, Assault Value = 1512

Defending force 47775 troops, 220 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1341

Japanese adjusted assault: 964

Allied adjusted defense: 1463

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3085 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 319 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 42 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 28 disabled
Guns lost 32 (2 destroyed, 30 disabled)
Vehicles lost 16 (1 destroyed, 15 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3339 casualties reported
Squads: 24 destroyed, 335 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 39 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 25 (1 destroyed, 24 disabled)

Assaulting units:
41st Division
17th Division
4th Ind.Mixed Brigade
3rd Ind.Mixed Brigade
12th Tank Regiment
5th Tank Regiment
59th Infantry Brigade
North China Area Army
7th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
5th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
55th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
9th Chinese Corps
85th Chinese Corps
38th Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Cavalry Corps
15th Group Army
36th Group Army [/font]

Second, a battle in the far north where Japan is at the end of a long supply line. Japanese troops have lost a series of minor battles in the north but still press on forward. The unit below was protecting the retreat of another unit.

[font="Courier New"]Ground combat at 83,26 (near Kiuchuan)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 4524 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 154

Defending force 612 troops, 17 guns, 39 vehicles, Assault Value = 1

Allied adjusted assault: 72

Japanese adjusted defense: 7

Allied assault odds: 10 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
111 casualties reported
Squads: 15 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 10 (6 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
303rd Brigade
34th Separate Brigade

Defending units:
4th Cavalry Brigade[/font]

Finally, a battle on the road out of Kukong where a single Japanese unit was left to face a large Chinese stack. The Chinese attacked.
[font="Courier New"]Ground combat at 79,56 (near Kukong)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 39857 troops, 180 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1016

Defending force 5442 troops, 36 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 74

Allied adjusted assault: 497

Japanese adjusted defense: 217

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2039 casualties reported
Squads: 36 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 21 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 12 (4 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
848 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 88 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
86th Chinese Corps
78th Chinese/B Corps
74th Chinese Corps
70th Chinese Corps
63rd Chinese/A Corps

Defending units:
12th Ind.Mixed Brigade[/font]

In addition, I attacked in two hexes where Chinese units have been surrounded for months. The AI never surrounded units so I wasn't on the lookout for this happening. After months of bombardment these units had run out of supply and I figure the sooner they get destroyed the sooner they reappear in Chungking. So shock attacks were ordered! Many Chinese casualties occurred. For the day, counting all loses in all battles, the Chinese experienced 7,000 casualties while Japan suffered 5,000 casualties.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack
I fear such costly battles might be part of Q-Ball's new US Grant-like approach.

Except Chinese squad production is larger than Japanese squad production. The South couldn't afford to trade casualties but the Chinese can. It just has to be on good terms. Its the post victory routs that are really dangerous.

[Panjack]

April 27, 1942
------------
China: Big loss SE of Changsha. A couple of days ago almost 1500 AV of Japanese troops appeared in the hex (drat the lack of recon!) and I wasn't able to get more units into the hex before the Japanese drove out my troops. I'll likely get more units into the hex stopping the movement of Japanese troops into the Changsha valley, but these units might too be driven out.

Central Pacific:A Marine raider battalion just landed on Baker Island and a US infantry regiment is soon to land at Canton Island. Other units are moving elsewhere in the Pacific. The Central Pacific has been pretty unmolested by the Japanese. I now have enough units to start defending some of the more important islands. Previously, Christmas Island was the only island with anything that could put up a fight.

India: I'm continuing to build up Cawpore, Jubbulpore, and Hyderabad (South). Madras is now getting big bunch of troops.

[Panjack]

Although I got a (very small) unit in the hex below (coming from Changsha), the hex side to the west is open to the Japanese and, so, the Japanese will likely get into the clear terrain hex in the Changsha valley. Right?

The Chinese unit to the west didn't start to move until after the Japanese as my knowledge of this hex side stuff is still only partial. Live and learn!