Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

6/8/45

Intel Screen: The Allies take the points lead! It took 15 months, after I stepped in trailing by about 25k. It took 15 months mainly because Strat Bombing has been very difficult, despite holding big bases on Hokkaido, because enemy fighters and flak inflict losses at a rate I cannot sustain. And the Allied took the lead 10 months later than I did so in my game with John III.

Overall, the Allied position is strong and getting stronger. Once the Indochina army links up with the Chinese army, the Allies will be in a position (I think) to ramp up offensive action in each phase of the game - air, sea, ground. And it's about then that the Russians will activate.

[Capt. Harlock]

Hangchow is looking like the Petersburg to Shanghai's Richmond. Maybe some naval bombardment might be in order?

[JeffroK]

And Grant is waiting for Sherman to save him!

[Canoerebel]

Hey, love Civil War analogies! But this is Operation Market Garden, only the Allies have taken Arnhem (Nanking) with sufficient strength to hold off the enemy until XXX Corps (the army moving up from Indochina) arrives. The dovetailing of these two "fronts" with Russian activation should work out well. It would've been fun if I had landed in China early enough to run amock before Erik's Burma army arrived, but I'll take this. His army is still basically untouched (he's lost only 8.5k army losses, whereas John had lost about 35k in May 1945 in that game). He's still very strong on the ground, so I'll be cautious while surrounded so deep behind his lines. But the Allied army is strong enough to withstand whatever he might try on the ground, I think.

[JeffroK]

More like Anzio, where it was hoped a wildcat was thrown ashore only to find it was a stranded whale.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: JeffroK

More like Anzio, where it was hoped a wildcat was thrown ashore only to find it was a stranded whale.

Sorry, I don't get this analogy. What am I missing?

[Canoerebel]

I wondered the same. My thoughts ran this way: "My goodness, what might be in the AAR that would provoke such a gloomy outlook?"

There is a possibility the wheels could come off in the short term, which is why I'm playing this pretty carefully. Long-term, though, I think things are progressing very well.

[HansBolter]

Time is rapidly expiring for the use of the term 'long term'.

I'm in the last days of September '45 now with the landings on Kyushu just days away and I'm already thinking in terms of 'will I have time for that (insert planned operation here) before the scenario ends'....

Great to see a competitive game go this far.

[mind_messing]

Anzio is an apt comparison here to be fair. Waiting for the Soviets or the Indochina forces to "rescue" the Shanghai operation is simply going to take too long.

Do you intend to march the Indochinese troops over-land through China? At any rate that is the impression I gather from reading your posts.

If so, that's going to take too long.

I would suggest capitalizing on what you've gained - a series of ports in Vietnam and coastal bases in Central China. Move your shipping to Indochina, load your troops in amphib mode and off-load them at the Allied bases at and around Nanking. The Deathstar is on hand to escort.

The Arnhem analogy doesn't work. Horrocks didn't have the option to use Allied naval superiority and the Rhine to reach Arnhem. You, however, have that option.

tl;dr - don't march when you can sail.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Anzio is an apt comparison here to be fair. Waiting for the Soviets or the Indochina forces to "rescue" the Shanghai operation is simply going to take too long.

Do you intend to march the Indochinese troops over-land through China? At any rate that is the impression I gather from reading your posts.

If so, that's going to take too long.

I would suggest capitalizing on what you've gained - a series of ports in Vietnam and coastal bases in Central China. Move your shipping to Indochina, load your troops in amphib mode and off-load them at the Allied bases at and around Nanking. The Deathstar is on hand to escort.

The Arnhem analogy doesn't work. Horrocks didn't have the option to use Allied naval superiority and the Rhine to reach Arnhem. You, however, have that option.

tl;dr - don't march when you can sail.

+1

I had already cleared most of China before my British army of Malaya/Burma was freed to strategically redeploy to central China for the invasion of Formosa. I was able to use the combination of rail and major road strategic movement to execute the move. You still have too much Japanese controlled territory between your central China force and Lang Son to be able to rapidly execute an SR by land.

Also take note of the fact that while British and Indian units can use strategic road movement Commonwealth units cannot.
The African and Burmese troops are better used garrisoning than strategically redeploying.

[Canoerebel]

Policeman: "You are an impatient generation."
Young Engineer: "Weren't you?"
Policeman: "Yes, we were."

Anybody recognize the lines? Which movie?

It's possible for you readers to say what you'd do if you were at the controls and had the time to fully evaluate the board and implement decisions of your own. It's not really possible to say what I ought to do now, involving massive changes in the plan, without being aware of the zillion factors I have and had access to in planning and then adjusting on the fly. There are many reasons I've chosen this plan as the one with the best odds of success. It's the right plan.

I'm not opposed to mobility. That was the very thing I cited in implementing the plan to invade Kushiro and then China.

And I'm aware of the differences in strategic movement by rail and by road and which units can take advantage of the latter and which can't. Knowing that helped me figure out the best way to handle transportation to and from Malaya to northern China and how to deploy and commit forces to clear major roads and then railroads as early as possible.

[mind_messing]

The problem as far as I see it isn't the plan. It's the speed with which it's being conducted.

It all boils down to VP's. You'll be lucky if the Indochina forces get in to position before the game is over. I'm not convinced the Soviets will generate the VP's that you need for a major victory in time.

My specific concern is your reluctance to engage Japanese units outwith the Nanking perimeter. You're in the position to ramp up the ground and naval war now. The US Army (let alone the Marines) have a massive firepower superiority over the IJA at this point in time. You need to actively exploit that. Even in the face of superior forces, you need to be bombarding IJA stacks in every hex possible. That burns IJ supplies, and that makes things difficult.

You've ships, and hundreds of them. Bombard everything that has a shoreline. You've the ships, fuel and supply spare.

You're not going to be pushed out of China at this stage. Why fight him in the difficult terrain west of Shanghai? Go north, fight in the open. Bring the big AA stack as well so level bombing is a negative return. Cut Singyang railway and get a tangible strategic benefit.

Indochina is not going to decide the outcome of this game. China won't either. You need big VP bases and that means Japan proper.

Now is the time for expansion, not consolidation. You get no bonus points for being as loss-adverse as the Allies historically were at this point in the war.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Policeman: "You are an impatient generation."
Young Engineer: "Weren't you?"
Policeman: "Yes, we were."

Anybody recognize the lines? Which movie?

It's possible for you readers to say what you'd do if you were at the controls and had the time to fully evaluate the board and implement decisions of your own. It's not really possible to say what I ought to do now, involving massive changes in the plan, without being aware of the zillion factors I have and had access to in planning and then adjusting on the fly. There are many reasons I've chosen this plan as the one with the best odds of success. It's the right plan.

I'm not opposed to mobility. That was the very thing I cited in implementing the plan to invade Kushiro and then China.

And I'm aware of the differences in strategic movement by rail and by road and which units can take advantage of the latter and which can't. Knowing that helped me figure out the best way to handle transportation to and from Malaya to northern China and how to deploy and commit forces to clear major roads and then railroads as early as possible.

Policeman: "You are an impatient generation." Young Engineer: "Weren't you?" Policeman: "Yes, we were." Anybody recognize the lines? Which movie?

"At last, they did what all the armies dreamed of doing - they began to go home."

[Canoerebel]

Mind-Messing got the movie! It's a great one - probably one of the top 10 must-sees on a big screen.

But, as for the game, you're missing a lot of the context of the plan (which has always included the possibility of seaborne movement of the troops from Malaya/Indochina) and a host of other considerations, including supply availability now and long term. You also don't have a feel for the air war as it exists in this game - how strong enemy fighters are and how gravely that complicates any Allied movement in open terrain north of Shanghai until lots of Allied AA comes up. There are umpteen dozen factors I'm aware of that you aren't. I'm not an elite player, but I do know the situation here and what's possible and what's risky and what's best for my guys under all the circumstances.

Why is it going to take until the end of the war for the Allied army in Indochina to reach China (in general) or Shanghai region (specifically)? That army is already at Vinh, moving north with light opposition until it reaches Nanning. It'll be fighting in China in ten days. The war isn't going to end for something like eight months.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Mind-Messing got the movie! It's a great one - probably one of the top 10 must-sees on a big screen.

I need to actually getting around to reading the book at some point. Never been one for the Russian authors much.

But, as for the game, you're missing a lot of the context of the plan (which has always included the possibility of seaborne movement of the troops from Malaya/Indochina) and a host of other considerations, including supply availability now and long term.

You're concerned about long term goals. There's only so much time left on the clock. If the game runs to 1946, you'll get a draw at best. That VP ratio needs to start moving towards that magic 2:1 ratio. You've six months to do it.

There is no long-term. At best, you've got mid-term.

You also don't have a feel for the air war as it exists in this game - how strong enemy fighters are and how gravely that complicates any Allied movement in open terrain north of Shanghai until lots of Allied AA comes up.

Fighters are very limited in what they can do to ground units.

IJ bombers can have an impact on ground operations, but they don't have the payload that Allied bombers do, and they need to be massed to have a serious effect. IJ bomber damage can be limited by Allied concentration of heavy flak.

Japanese bombers need to destroy (not disable) three devices to break even. You'll be hard pressed to get Japan having a positive ratio from bombing against Allied flak alone in 1945.

In a more general note, you've a fixation on the air war. Bullwinkle was fond of saying that AE is a naval game with ground and air components. He's right. Its a common theme that players get very invested in the air war because it's sexy and big losses normally aren't too punishing. That ends up being to their determinant.

You're getting good results using your navy at Hankow. Those results to be replicated at coastal hex within a nights sail from Nanking. Throw sand in the Japanese combat power. Sand in the shape of Fletcher and other late war classes of destroyers. Don't be too afraid of losses - there's plenty of them.

Japan needs to feel the pinch at sea, and you need it to take pressure off the air front. Take a holistic approach to breaking Japanese air power - pick a big coastal IJ airbase, send some Fletchers in at night to disrupt the CAP. Follow it up with 4E's night bombing the airbase at low level. Send big sweeps in the morning to pick off the sleep-deprived and shell shocked pilots as they try to take off from a run-way pockmarked by 5 inch shells.

I agree that the air war is difficult for the Allies in 1945 against an organized and diligent Japanese player, but the Allies have more than enough assets (and not just planes) to push through.

There are umpteen dozen factors I'm aware of that you aren't. I'm not an elite player, but I do know the situation here and what's possible and what's risky and what's best for my guys under all the circumstances.

This I think is the core of your current predicament.

What's best for your guys is not what's best for your chances of winning.

In order to have the best chance to obtain a favourable VP ratio and a positive win condition, your guys need to go through hell. You need to get divisions wrecked, units bombed and ships sunk.

Your strategy is depending a great deal of the Soviet component to bring about big VP swings. To maximize your chances, the IJA needs to get bogged down in an absolute brawl in China so that the Manchurian contingent of the IJA is on it's own. It needs to be more than two stacks facing each other in hexes, it needs to be paratroopers, tank raids and a few divisions just marching around blocking railroad movements. It needs to be messy, so that when Obvert decides he'd like to move two divisions to Manchuria, he feels that he can't do it without the China front completely collapsing.

Why is it going to take until the end of the war for the Allied army in Indochina to reach China (in general) or Shanghai region (specifically)? That army is already at Vinh, moving north with light opposition until it reaches Nanning. It'll be fighting in China in ten days. The war isn't going to end for something like eight months.

Vinh to Shanghai is 29 hexes. That's a direct line. In practice it's about 31.

31 hexes x 46 miles = 1426 miles.

Assume that it's all main road, that you're able to move in movemement mode every turn and you're keeping the tanks with the infantry.

1426 miles/30 miles a day = 47.5 days.

So you're a month and a half just to get to Shanghai. That doesn't even factor in opposition. With six months before 1946, losing a month and a half before really ramping things up is beyond cutting it close.

Your current situation in China really can't be passive.

[Canoerebel]

You're trying to micromanage* a complex system without having the benefit of enough info to do so.

I do not expect to achieve a 2:1 in 1945. I gave that up in late 1944, when I realized I had serious issues that limited strategic bombing and that Erik's fighter corps was such a beast.

I'm playing to do as well as I can by the end of the game. The plan is in place and proceeding well.

Your thoughts are valid ones and would fit into a plan of your crafting and implementation. But there's too much you aren't privy to here. For instance, your thoughts about Erik's fighters. They do inflict damage indirectly. Any of my ground units that venture into the open terrain north of Shanghai are subject to bombing in the open. I can cover them by LRCAP, but that is pure fodder against any enemy sweeps. So committing troops in the open, at this point, would just get an army ruined.

You'll have to trust me when I say I know what I'm doing with what I've been served.

*"micro-analyze" would be a better term

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're trying to micromanage* a complex system without having the benefit of enough info to do so.

Neither term is really on the nose. Macro-analysis would be more apt. I don't like to get bogged down in the specifics beyond what is directly critical.

Your thoughts are valid ones and would fit into a plan of your crafting and implementation. But there's too much you aren't privy to here. For instance, your thoughts about Erik's fighters. They do inflict damage indirectly. Any of my ground units that venture into the open terrain north of Shanghai are subject to bombing in the open. I can cover them by LRCAP, but that is pure fodder against any enemy sweeps. So committing troops in the open, at this point, would just get an army ruined.

Fighters aren't very good at bombing.

You can be bombed in the open terrain, but LRCAP isn't an absolute requirement. Flak can (and will) provide a passive counter to IJ bombing via a sufficiently high rate of attrition to make long-term bombing of your units either:

- unstainable due to losses (either outright due to ops)
- ineffective due to moving to a higher altitude to mitigate losses.

Either is acceptable, given the current situation.

Beyond that, how many combat units have you operational in China? How many bombers would the IJ need to amass to "get an army ruined"? What proportion of the IJ air force will be needed to generate those results, when considering the limited bombload of IJ bombers? The IJ can wipe out an Allied division from the air, provided they put enough effort in. They'll really struggle with 4 divisions protected by a half dozen AA units.

It's perfectly possible for an Allied army to remain operational under sustained bombing from IJ bombers, provided there's a critical mass of flak. Will it operate at peak effectiveness? Absolutely not. But they can (and absolutely should) make some progress.

It's 1945. Flak is as good as it gets for the Allies. Flak is your friend, and it belongs on the frontline

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I know all about flak; I know where it is, where I want it, and when it's going to be where I want it. That's the kind of info you aren't privy to, so you have to make assumptions that won't, as it turns out, be accurate.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I know all about flak; I know where it is, where I want it, and when it's going to be where I want it. That's the kind of info you aren't privy to, so you have to make assumptions that won't, as it turns out, be accurate.

I hope that works out for you.

[Canoerebel]

It probably won't.

A lot of what's going on is shaped by my perception of Erik's ability as a player. He's elite, so far as I'm concerned.

[JohnDillworth]

It probably won't.

A lot of what's going on is shaped by my perception of Erik's ability as a player. He's elite, so far as I'm concerned.

Notes from the peanut gallery. Erik seems to be playing you as tough as any opponent I've seen. That is not a comment on you but he just doesn't seem to make mistakes. He is careful, meticulous and is playing the long game. He is not going to make a mistake so you will just have to grind it out. You have made some bold moves and Erik has counter each move as well as possible. A pleasure to watch. Well played gentlemen, both of you