Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar

[bigbaba]

i have to agree with pelton. outstanding and great written AAR. one can learn a lot from your fight.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 157; Jun 15, 1944.....clear

Screen shot before German moves.

Just when I think I can hold or delay, the hordes make me pay! While AGN sector remains quiet, AGC looks to suddenly collapse!

Soviets strike where I really didn't expect an armored push - I should have, but I thought they had shifted south near Orel. So instead of the normal massed rifle corps attacks, 8th Army's XXXXI PzKps gets blown through by massed armor. 4th Pz Div holds off two of three attacks, causing heavy losses to the Soviets, but the third attack opens the hole, and the horde comes through in force.

Fortunatly I have 4th Pz Armee (-) deployed for just this kind of crisis. Of course I had just shifted LVI PzKps to just west of Kursk where I thought the breakthrough might take place, and this leaves only XXIV PzKps to react from the south. III SS PzKps can commit from the north side of the penetration, but that will leave Smolensk very exposed.

Guess its about time to pull back en mass.......

[bigbaba]

at least you have a strong fort line at dnjepr. falling back there could also make the front shorter and help you to build more reserve troops. or do you plan to cut off his spearheads and build a pocket?

[IdahoNYer]

After the German moves, well....alot of folks might just learn from this alright...of what NOT to do!

Reinforcments pour into the threatened area of operations. 4th Army's III SS PzKps pulls off the line protecting Smolensk, and attacks the northern half of the Soviet penetration, establishing a hasty line along the Besed River and linking up with 4th Pz Army's XXIV PzKps attacking from the SW, encircling two lead tank corps. 7th Pz Div moves from 3rd Pz Armee to south of Smolensk to offer 4th Army a reserve - not quite packing the punch of the III SS PzKps of course....

4th Pz Armee's counterattack with two PzKps pushes the "nose" of the Soviet pentration back, routing two tank corps in the process, but can not fully plug the gap.

This leaves 8th Army very exposed - I can either try to "hold the shoulders" of the penetration which at its narrowest point is only 20 miles wide, or I can pull much of 8th Army SSW out of harms way. I elect to try and hold the shoulders, although this places much of six infantry divisions at great risk of encirclement. I figure if I pull out, the Soviet horde will really rush west, overrunning the threadbare defenses preventing them from reaching the Dniepr. By holding, I'm hoping to turn his attention on widening the penetration instead of exploiting. Neither choice is optimum....

Along the Dniepr's fortifications, the 1st Hun Army mans the line - just in case Scar does push west and try a crossing.

This penetration does force both 2nd and 6th Armies to begin pulling out of their exposed salients north of Kursk. This signals the beginning of evacuating the Ukraine east of the Dniepr. As I'm pulling out of a good fortified line, there isn't much to stop the Soviets from rolling west to the Dneipr itself - and unhinging the defenses as far south as Kharkov and the Dniepr Bend - which have been very quiet areas...

My greatest concern at this point isn't the survival of 8th Army - that's pretty much written off at this point. Its really whether or not 2nd and 6th Armies' withdrawal will become a rout.....

[Ketza]

Very exciting game. I look forward to every update.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 158; Jun 22, 1944......clear and mud in the North Soviet Zone

Three years to the day of the German invasion of the USSR! The aniversary is highlighted by the first major withdrawals and the Wehrmacht fighting fierce defensive battles all along the front.

The first screen shot shows the quietest sector of the front, that of AGN. Helped by mud in the North Soviet Zone, little activity is reported across the front. 18th Army has held off the Soviet attacks toward Leningrad, while 16th Army's area also remained quiet. 9th Army has been pushed back as AGC's 3rd Pz Armee to its right has been forced back.

With little activity across much of AGN, it has been the primary "bill payer" for forces to reinforce AGC's debacle in the Center. I expect this to continue as 18th Army is still pretty robust, and as 16th and 9th Armies pull back further west, more forces can be released.

Still, one reason the front is quiet is that it remains strong, and entrenched in good positions. If I pull too much out too fast, the Soviet Bear will again start pushing west here in the north.

[IdahoNYer]

AGC's position is precarious at best - and that includes the assistance from 4th Pz Armee, brought up from AGB, as well as two SS Pz Divs, 9th and 10th SS, about ready to pack up and meet the Allied threat in Normandy. In other words, its probably going to get worse...

3rd Pz Armee continues to slowly pull back against heavy pressure from massed Rifle Corps attacks north of Smolensk. The mud will give a brief respite. 3rd Pz also lost two Pz Divs to backstop 4th Army as III SS PzKps oriented south against the Soviet "Bulge" in the lines.

4th Army, on the north side of the Soviet "Bulge", has moved its most powerful striking force, III SS PzKps, south along the Besed River to defend against Soviet attacks. Overall, the Army is hanging on just barely and will have to withdraw westward to the Dneipr shortly as its infantry are incapable of holding the line.

4th Pz Armee, thrown into the line to stave off disaster, has done well at blunting the Soviet attack westward. After only two weeks of counterattack and forward defense, its 5xPz and 2xPG divisions are exhausted and much depleted. Still, it has blunted the Soviet exploitation - but at a cost.

8th Army is in danger of encirclement - of at least 4, maybe more infantry divisions. By holding the narrow corridor on the south side of the Soviet thrust west, it did indeed attract the attention of the Soviets, slowing their drive west, and limited their abiltiy to reinforce their success. But the price may be steep, very steep.

2nd Army is trying to parry continued Soviet attacks while maintaining front integrity - a tough job with only one Pz Div remaining in the once powerful III PzKps.

1st Hun Army, with some German "corsets" is already manning the most likely are of the Dniepr the soviets will reach first.

Very soon, the entire Armee Group will pull back to the Dneipr line - which will slow, but not stop a determined Soviet attack.

[IdahoNYer]

AGB and AGA begin the "rapid" withdrawal west toward the "Eastern Rampart" along the Dniepr River. This was a hard choice, as it involved giving up Kursk, Belgorod and Kharkov without a shot fired in anger. Still force preservation necessitated the pull back.

6th Army pulled back, maintaining contact with 2nd Army to its north. Without any apprciable reserves, the key to the pull back is speed - withdraw faster than the Soviets can advance to gather the time necessary to occupy the fortified positions.

Hun 2nd Army pulled back due west, abandoning Kharkov. Also without reserves, speed here is also key.

1st Pz Armee hinged its withdrawal on the Dniepr Bend, slowly falling back there, more rapidly in the north to maintain contact with the Hungarians. With some still powerful panzer forces, including GrossDeutschland, it can still back some punch.

17th Army is the first to occupy the "Eastern Rampart" along the Dniepr River and to the south to the Sea of Azov. Using Rumanians to augment the German divisions, it should be able to hold off all but a major Soviet attack - which I don't think is likely at the moment.

The "Eastern Rampart" itself consists of level 3 fortifications (mostly) along the Dneipr River from the Dniepr Bend up through Kiev. Level 2 and 3 fortifications north of Kiev, where engineers are putting a max effort of making it level 3s. A double line of level 3 and level 4 fortifications head south in 17th Army's area to the Sea of Azov. Overall, its the best we could do, and its been in the making since the end of 1942. Still, a determined Soviet attack can force a crossing, and without substantial reserves, pushing back a breach will be doubtful.

[IdahoNYer]

Close up of the situation of trying to hem in the Soviet "Bulge" penetration. 8th Army holding the salient to limit the Soviet point of penetration at 20 miles might be termed "a costly success". True, the Soviet westward advance was severly curtailed as many Soviet formations turned EAST against 8th Army's salient. However, extracting 8th Army is proving exceedingly tough. Even with 4th Pz Armee's LVI PzKps counterattacking the south side of the Soviet penetration, a number of infantry divisions may be lost. This shift in LVI PzKps has also weakened the defenses against a Soviet attack to the SW.

2nd Army is also in a precarious position. A small Soviet breakthrough was immediately cut off, but with only one Pz Div available, there really was no chance to rout the Soviets that broke through.

Instead, 2nd Army joined 6th Army in pulling out - one division being unable to move quickly enough is left behind. 2nd Army forms the "hinge" of the withdrawal, as 8th Army will take longer to pull out than 6th Army will. This will be a dicey propostion at best....

Overall, once I can extract as much as 8th Army as practical, all forces will retire to the Dniepr. At that point the Soviets will have a major decision to make - to attack north or south of the Pripet Marshes. The Pripet iself should provide somewhat of a buffer - 120 miles of where a major attack is not extremely likely.

Of course, I have to get into the Dniepr defenses in some type of order, and that is yet to be seen.

[IdahoNYer]

At the 3yr anniversary, its only fitting we look at the forces available.

The most telling stat here to me is that the Soviet forces are under the 6 million mark, and are DECREASING instead of increasing! Now, giving up the mass amount of personnel centers in the Ukraine will undoubtably change that in the months to come, but I hopefully won't feel that effect till the end of 1944.

Keeping the Soviets under 6 million is a worthy goal. As is keeping thier AFVs under 10k. That means 1) holding territory and denying it to the Soviets while 2) inflicting heavy losses.

So far we've been able to do that. Still the Soviets are getting stronger, and the Germans are getting weaker....Summer '44 will be a very, very tough fight.

[IdahoNYer]

And the losses for Jun 22, 1944.

Soviets over the 9 million mark while the Germans almost at 3.5 million. Soviets are getting better in killing Germans; a 2-1 or or 3-1 loss ration was normal. Now, in the summer of '44, its tough to get 2-1. Of course, a few "holds" every turn make the difference.

Air losses remain heavily slanted in the Germans favor - usual well above 5-1.

[Farfarer61]

Superb info. Thank you.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 159; Jun 29, 1944...clear

While events remain pretty quiet from Smolensk to Leningrad, AGC finds itself battling for survival east of Chernigov.
While keeping 8th Army forward did in fact limit the Soviet breakthrough west toward the Dneipr, the Soviets have now taken this as an opportunity to encircle all of 8th Army.

I have vastly underestimated the potential of a full scale Soviet massed armored attack!

Bringing up 4th Pz Armee was to solidify the front, allowing 8th, 2nd and 6th Armies to withdraw in good order. Instead, the Soviets cut through 4th Pz's LVI PzKps like a knife through butter! LVI PzKps was literally overrun - with the Soviets advancing a good 50 miles straight south, bridging the Desna River and putting 8th Army in a very precarious posiiton - a salient only 20 miles wide at its base, and over 80 miles long - with strong Soviet forces pushing against both sides at the base. Within this salient are 10 divisions of 8th Army, SS Wiking of LVI PzKps, and 7 divisions of 2nd Army at the base.

4th Pz Armee's LVI PzKps is a mere shell of its former self, but its XXIV PzKps remained intact.

Now, the problem is "Now what?" 4th Pz Armee is clearly too weak to effectively counter attack and push the lead Soviet tank corps back so that the majority of the Salient can pull out. At best a "small solution" is possible - whereby the base of the Salient is able to pull out.

Even the "small solution" involves considerable risk - I'm betting he doesn't have the strength to push west and south, but I have to take the chance if I want to pull out even half of the above divisions.

[krupp_88mm]

[Baelfiin]

Two choices looks like

Write off the guys in the deepest part of the finger.

or if you are feeling brave trying something like this in my screenie below could be a lot of fun.....

[krupp_88mm]

or if you are feeling brave trying something like this in my screenie below could be a lot of fun.....

or if you are feeling brave trying something like this in my screenie below could be a lot of fun.....

i like the plan, i would say even rail in entire other panzer army off of a front somewhere if available or anything, abandon another fornt would be worth it if you could somehow trap that tank blob, anyway shouldnt german armor at this stage be able to best russian armor in combat

[IdahoNYer]

Baelfinn - Wow! That's a hell of a nice plan you laid out...however...

I flew some recon in that open space, and well, it wasn't so open... so, that risk you're talking about taking seems to be edging toward a gamble - one I can't risk. While the rewards would be outstanding if successful, it it fails I'll lose a whole lot more than 8th Army - probably most of AGB. I just can risk that.

So....we go with the small solution. It starts off poorly with 8th Army divisions in the Salient making a limited attack north to interdict the Soviet Rail Line that supports the penetration. While succeeding in displacing the defending Soviet division, we are unable to occupy the hex, thereby accomplish nothing. More successful is the key attack which will allow a number of divisions to escape encirlcement - a Soviet Rifle Corps is displaced on the eastern side of the Salient at its base - this allows SS Wiking and about 6 infantry divisions, largely from 2nd Army to pull out.

GD PZ Div is brought up from 1st Pz Armee to hold a crucial fortified position that "should" prevent the Soviets from exploiting further south and crossing the Desna in force. 6th Army forms up along the Desna, while 2nd Army's III PzKps holds the shoulder allowing 6th Army to pull back. 4th Pz Armee holds an poorly defensible line to the north of the Desna, and will delay slowly west. My hope is that the Soviets concentrate on isolating the 8th Army, and not expanding their gains. 4th Army to the north also will slowly pull back west.

Even if this plan holds, the loss is still catastrophic - A combined 14 infantry division (9 IN - 8th Army, 3 IN - 6th Army, 1 IN- 2nd Army) totalling some 106,000 men are written off. I do remember to pull out all the assigned supporting battalions, and there are no HQs in the Salient. News reels put a positive spin on the situation by focusing on the success in pulling out SS Wiking and the half dozen divisions from 2nd Army....

[IdahoNYer]

South of AGC's debacle, the withdrawal towards the Dniepr goes on without major incident - basically because we are withdrawing faster than the Soviets can pursue. The lead Soviet tank brigades are brushed back by 27th Pz east of Poltava and 14th Pz east of the Dniepr Bend.

The question here is when, and where, the Soviets will attempt to force a crossing of the Dniepr. We'll try and keep them off the Dniepr as long as possible - especially in the Dneipr Bend area by keeping some Rumanians forward to delay the inevitable.

While I have good confidence in 17th Army holding the fortified positions in the Dniepr Bend, bolstered by the Rumanians, and 1st Pz Armee once it falls back behind the river from Kremunchug south, I'm not as confident in the Hungarian 2nd Army holding off a major assault once they are in position behind the river. But with the total loss of 8th Army's infantry, my plan to pull 8th Army from AGC to AGB may need to be thought a bit - or 8th Army re-established.

In the Crimea, things remain quiet with the Rum 4th Army (and one Ger Div) holding things down. The real question here is whether I pull out and evac the Crimea in a timely manner, or try and hold off and make a stand in Sevastopol....

[Q-Ball]

Idaho: Great AAR, and you noted that Soviet OOB is DECREASING.

Manpower production for the Soviets drops year by year, yet with all the guys up front they suffer big losses all the time. I think the Soviets are going to have to manage MANPOWER in the long-run, and have to be careful not to be profligate.

The one thing, IMO, that the Red Army will NEVER run out of after 1942 is TANKS!

[IdahoNYer]

Thanks Q-Ball.

Keeping the Soviet manpower decreasing was the primary reason I tried to hold onto the Orel-Kursk-Kharkov line for so long. My bet now, regardless on similar Soviet casualites, now that he's gaining these (and plenty other) personnel centers as he advances, his numbers will start to increase.