Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

Program Note.

Gents, I have to go to the Trans Pecos (a/k/a the far West Texas Desert) for a business trip until Wednesday evening, so we will have a brief hiatus. Hate to quit on the eve of invading Java, but c'est la guerre.

[Cribtop]

I'm back. A quick update from watching the March 23 replay. Cuttlefish is withdrawing from Sian! Interesting. He probably concludes (as I do) that Sian will fall, and has decided to prevent the massive losses that would be incurred by the forced retreat of a 32 LCU stack. We'll try to catch him on the way out the door.

[Cribtop]

March 23, 1942

Subs

O-16 sinks a CM bound for Singapore.

4th Fleet

The Raiders find no targets today, but our sub spots 2 ships hiding in port at Canton. We'll try a port strike tomorrow and then retire.

SE Fleet

Umboi Island invaded, Rekata Bay falls.

14th Army

No change.

16th Army

The Wyndham invasion TF and Celebes Sea Squadron withdraw toward Kendari.

25th Army

Things continue to heat up in Java. MKB and the invasion fleet are spotted by a Catalina that is then downed by CAP. A small raid by 3 139s results in two aircraft shot down by Zeros and one that misses an xAK. IJAAF and IJNAF raids hit the airfields at Batavia, Madioen and Bandoeng (this is where MKB sends its Kates). Results are gratifying, with trashed fields and twelve more a/c destroyed on the ground. We have done our best to degrade CF's ability to interfere with our landings tomorrow.

One more raid by Betties from Singers goes in against Batavia's port. The plan here was to try to catch PTs to minimize an attack on the landing ships. We don't find any PTs, sinking 9 AMcs instead.

15th Army

The enemy army continues to retire in the direction of Imphal while we pursue. Akyab is well supplied enough that we spent the day flying in troops instead. Raw AS is going up about 15 points per day when we can do this. The crisis here appears to have passed. A supply ship is en route and we will soon fly an Air HQ into Port Blair to endanger amhip invasions or bombardment runs.

China

The KMT is withdrawing from Sian! We will not let them march out unmolested. Plan is to wait one day for a fresh division to arrive and then try a DA. Our next move in China should be carefully considered. Thoughts are welcome. Air recon shows that CF is slowly adding troops to a clear hex near Hankow. A show of force or a real attack?

A fresh Brigade has arrived at Pakhoi. Raw AS is 323:219 in our favor. We will try a DA tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

Cribtop, from where I sit (at a distance), China now seems to be the critical theater of opportunity in the game.  You have created a breach in the enemy's MLR (not just his Chinese MLR, but the MLR for all the Allies).  To my way of thinking, this becomes the place where you should send everything available to exploit that breach and turn it into a route.

Are there actions you might take elsewhere to compliment the situation in China?  If Cutles if feeding in aircraft from SEAC, can you ramp up pressure there to take advantage?  Can you threaten the Chinese MLR from the east (Changsha, Kweilin) or even from the south (moving north from Lashio)?

[Cribtop]

Dan, I really agree. Assuming Sian falls, it is an opportunity to neutralize China for a long time, perhaps for the whole game. I have already paid to move one Kwantung Army division into China and plan to buy out another as soon as the PPs stack up. I'm moving them to an unrestricted command so that someday they can man the perimeter, but I am looking at a big push in China.

What should the objective be? It seems that killing Chinese units is at best an ancillary objective. Good when it happens to snowball my combat power advantage and to pocket VPs, but not an end in itself. I am of the opinion that maiming the Chinese economy is the correct strategic target. That means capturing Sian and if possible Lanchow to rob them of usable oil, then focusing on bases with industry to rob them of resources and supplies. There is also value in making moves to shorten our lines and thus further add to the combat power differential.

Options seem to be marching on Lanchow, cutting off and destroying the ChiCom army in the north, turning into the Chungking basin via Anking (amazing this is even on the table), Changsha, or the South. I could advance from Lashio but I'm not sure that's good bang for the buck as we would fight over the mountains for in effect three bases. The Chungking basin would make for a cool adventure, but supply difficulties rule it out IMHO. Thus, I'm leaning toward taking or at least isolating Lanchow as part of a broader offensive to completely conquer north China. Assuming that works we will shift south to move on Changsha via the western approach rather than via direct assault. One option available is a hook into the Calcutta region to seize Assam and cut off even air supplies to China, but that would require a major change in planned phase two objectives. Lots of thinking to do here...

PS the major danger to pushing on Lanchow seems to be the possibility of a counteroffensive from Ichang and Changsha. At some point we will get a big army pretty far into the breach and at least somewhat vulnerable to being cut off. However, Lanchow isn't much farther, and conquering Yenan will free up troops manning the line in the north eventually.

[Canoerebel]

CV 2 has had some intersting experience intentionally withdrawing the Chinese amry from Sian and Changsha in order to reduce the size of his MLR and (according to him) reduce supply requirements.  So he might feel differently about the Chinese withdrawal from Sian.  On the other hand, I think it was Alfred that contends that Sian is one of three key Chinese cities.  So you may get varying opinions, but they are all worth considering.
 
To me, the Chinese army is the main target. As you know, the Chinese suffer massive losses whenever forced to retreat.  So my objective (were I you) would be to catch and savage Chinese units whenever possible.
 
If you threaten Chungking from the north (IE, the Kienko to Sian road), then Cuttlefish is going to get pretty desperate.  He's going to have to draw down his Changsha to Kweilin MLR, thus perhaps giving you opportunities there (assuming you have a big army in that region also).
 
If you can get enough supply to Sian (and that base in the woods to the south) to support a bombing campaign, I think I would try to force my way down the woods road towards Kienko, and then to the east apply pressure at Kweilin while feinting towards Changsha, Chengte, or Henyang.

[Canoerebel]

P.S.  If I thought China was really vulnerable and reeling, I would begin evluating possible action against NE India and Assam with the objective of truly cutting off China from supply.  Not saying I would do it - that decision would be made only after I evaluated it against other options.
 
Caveat:  I'm not familiar with the Japanese garrison requirements for China.  That would certainly be info I'd want to consider in making my "grandiose" plans.

[Cribtop]

Wow, that is going big indeed. I'll look at the map carefully tonight. There is certainly an argument that a credible threat to Chungking forces abandonment of the south without firing a shot. The analyses I've looked at concluded that Sian and Lanchow are key to the Chinese economy as without them you lose both your oil and HI. I'm no Mike Solli, however, so this assumption could be off. I still worry that if I go Chungking the correct counter would be to attack the base of the salient. I'm pretty stout in that region, but may need some reinforcements.

[Cribtop]

What, in Alfred's opinion, are the other two key Chinese cities?

[Canoerebel]

To be honest, I can't recall exactly where I saw that post, what was in it, or who wrote it.  I read it just a few days ago, I know Sian was one of the three, and I'm pretty sure Alfred was the author.  I would assume Changsha and Chungking would be the other two just from a "they would have to be, wouldn't they?" perspective.

If you go towards Chungking in stregnth, and if the Chinese army that once occupied Sian is fighting to slow you down, China will not have much of anything left with which to attack "your base."  IE, you could occupy Sian, Nanning, Loyang, Chengchow, Kaifeng and the other bases with relativley small forces and hold the salients against whatever China might send.  Decent IJA garrisons backed up by forts and some bombers are going to hurt whatever China could send that way.

For China to send anything major that way would require China to strip units from the Changsha front, which you could either counter by stripping your own units or which you could use as an opportunity to strike on the Changsha front.

I'm working with a lack of knowledge here.  I have no idea how much you and Cuttles have in the two front regions.  I'm going on the assuption that both of you have sizeable armies in each front, that you've just blown a gap in one of the fronts and are about to pour troops into the breach, and that doing so will create a crisis sufficient to force Cuttles to draw down troops from the other front.

[FatR]

Important and vulnerable points in the Chinese defensive line are Sian, Changsha and Pingsiang. Sian is economically important by itself, can be assaulted from several directions and if it is taken everything still south of it will be cut off. The loss of latter two will make the loss of Chinese center position, with its considerable amounts of light industry, inevitable, because Chinese cannot defend open hexes against sufficient concentration of airpower, and these hexes provide only x2 defensive bonus (assaulting a city with an x3 defensive bonus has little hope of success, unless Chinese are thoroughly weakened in previous operations).

The most economically important Chinese cities are Chungking, Lanchow and Chengtu. Sian I'd rate as the fourth most important.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As a personal preference, I've always treated Akyab as part of India so that the Allied player can use restricted Indian troops there.  Seems reasonable since Akyab has road connections only to India.  Unless you feel really strongly about it, I wouldn't raise the issue.

Congrats on making it to March 10.  I hope you'll go all the way with this one.  Knowing your gentlemanly opponent, I'm sure you will.

Go get 'em!

Early in my campaign, I volunteered to not use restricted units Indian units in Burma, thinking it gave an unfair advantage to the Allies. (Scen #2) However, paying retail and faced with the reality of losing China and seeing massive Japanese reinforcments march into Burma via Paoshan (has not fallen by 1/44 but will fall within two months or sooner) the reality is that there are just not enough PPs in the pool to purchase enough of the Indian army to counter this. Given the pressing need for PPs for other mundane needs, I would have effectively prevented myself from conducting any sort of offensive in Burma until 1945 and by then it would be too late due to Chinese theater troops flooding Burma.

Likewise, I am beginning to think that any HR restricting restricted Chinese units is just as flawed, because there are only about two full army corps of Chinese troops that actually can be bought out (the rest are all white restricted) whereas about 2/3rd of all the Japanese troops in China can (given enough PPs) bought out and moved to other theaters. If this house rule is in play, then the "only" Japanese strategy should be to take out China as it just opens up the table for virtually unlimited Japanese troop reinforcements to all theaters while the Allied player has no options. As it turns out. I have been forced to move about 30-40 shattered restricted Chinese units into N Burma because they won't take replacements in what remains of China while they continue to eat supply that is needed to sustain the few remaining good units that I have there.

Mind you these policies seemed good and fair when the campaign started a year and a half ago but experience is teaching me that they are not really workable-if your opponent plans from the beginning to take out China. If your opponent stops and does not try to take out China then it would probably work out OK. Perhaps an agreement not to use restricted Indian units in Burma before mid 1943 would work better. I don't know.

So, I would advise any Allied player to seriouly consider the implications of accepting HRs along these lines.

Remember, "real men pay retail." [;)]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I'm back. A quick update from watching the March 23 replay. Cuttlefish is withdrawing from Sian! Interesting. He probably concludes (as I do) that Sian will fall, and has decided to prevent the massive losses that would be incurred by the forced retreat of a 32 LCU stack. We'll try to catch him on the way out the door.

Sian is one of those mystical Chinese cities that will not hold supply. As the Allies you must defend in front of it and your supply flow will be fine. However once you retreat into Sian then all of your troops will eventually have no supply. It can never be defended. There are quite a number of Chinese cities that just will not hold supply. Although many issues have been corrected, I believe that this is one of the major Allied handicaps of the game as many of the natural strong points in China cannot be defended. I know that the Japanese player experiences this too in certain cities but the situation in China makes an already dire situation for the Allies almost impossible. For the Allies, the loss of Sian and Changsha create a supply nightmare that really never gets corrected and just keeps snowballing. One item in the new betas that might make a big difference is the ability to stockpile supplies in locations. Perhaps the Chinese player can now pick one key city and build up enough supply to allow units to regularly take replacments. The biggest problem for me in China was that I had accumulated over 4,000 squads in my pools but my units would not (well, very slowly) take replacments due to the lack of supply.

Good AAR by the way.

[Cribtop]

I will post a screenshot of the China situation, but the bottom line is that both sides have committed the bulk of their force to the battles around Nanyang and Sian. Recall that a sizable Chinese army was destroyed at Nanyang, swinging the balance in Japan's favor.

In the far north a/k/a the Yenan front, both sides have some forces but not a lot. What the Chinese have here is probably a bit bigger than the IJA in size, but that is probably more than made up for by lack of supply. I calculated last night I could scrape together two divisions and a brigade for offensive action. Remember that one element of the Sian campaign was to cut the road links between Sian and Yenan except for the yellow road that takes a roundabout path way to the north.

In the central front, defined as Nanyang to Chansha, we have stout garrisons of 600ish AV in the city hexes and across the river from Ichang. These forces have 100% prep and five forts in the cities, four forts in the country. Only a major effort could dislodge them. We have a division in Nanyang as a local reserve because the front between Ichang and Nanyang is thinly held. The IJA is assembling a 1000 AV force south of Changsha. It was originally intended to start clearing out South China front bases but I believe I will use it to seize Piangsang (currently empty) and spoil CF's demonstration or budding offensive in front of Wuchang. The KMT has 8 LCUs at Ichang, 5 in front of Wuchang, 9 in Changsha, 11 in Kanshien and 7 in Kukong. Recon of rear area bases reveals no additional concentrations.

In South China, neither side has much. We plan to capture Pakhoi (finally) and then will probably mount a local offensive to seize the lightly held base near Canton with a W name I can't remember.

[Canoerebel]

If his MLR includes Kanhsien, Kukong and Wuchong, he's pretty far forward and subject to attack on the flanks (assuming you can get enough troops to mount a serious offensive in China).  Those bases are also forward enough for you to bomb from a big airfield with lots of supply - like Canton.

[Cribtop]

PS crsutton, it is always hard to try to tweak things. JFBs were worried about massive early offensives from India into Burma, and this HR thus evolved. AFBs often logically requested that the rule apply to Kwantung Army units entering China as a balance. It is entirely possible that the real issue was that it is too easy still to supply a ground offensive in Burma. We are muddling along so far, but both players have a commitment to a non-gamey approach and I would have no problem re-visiting the HRs later.

I did spend some time last night considering China from the perspective of "even if the game would let me effectively knock China out of the war is that realistic and should I stop at some point?" For now I think we haven't gone too far down that road, but I will pause to think on that question as needed. Certainly IRL the IJA did not have the oomph to fully defeat China. Indeed, the failure to confront that fact is what eventually backed the Japanese leadership into a hopeless war with the US.

Finally, a thought from last night. It occurs to me that the retreat paths from Sian are such that CF either falls back on Ankang/Kienko or Lanchow or splits his force. I will assume he won't split (although if he does I would be thrilled). Thus, won't he HAVE to protect Chungking? And won't that mean that Lanchow is likely to fall into the IJA's lap? All of this swings me a bit toward Canoerebel's suggestion.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, the only viable retreat path from Sian is towards Kienko and Chungking.  To retreat towards Lanchow would be disaster - bad supply and worse position.  The Chinese have to withdraw in where they can (potentially) combine forces with the Changsha-sector troops if necessary.

[SqzMyLemon]

Hi Cribtop,

I think the key to China is the north. I understand the importance of Sian for many players, but in my opinion the loss of Lanchow is the real killer. It has 4x the fuel/oil production as Sian. I also think Lashio to Kunming is worth pursuing. They are only held with divisional strength and would require reinforcements to be drawn out from Central China to be defended adequately. If you are pushing China hard I don't see how Cuttlefish would be able to divert any additional troops to this front. Kunming is an important source of supply as well with substantial industry. Also, if you worry about an early drive from Commonwealth troops into Burma, what better way to seal the Burma Road than to control the Chinese portion of it. You can also grab the dot bases to the south of Kunming, and build them up to draw supply for your troops around Kunming if the Allies eventually push deep into Burma early.

In the Changsha region, if you are patient and build up the forts at Pingsiang, Wuchow, Hankow and Kukong you can safely lower your troop commitment levels here. Protect Canton and these bases and what can the Chinese take from you in the south that can't be taken back later? The troops you free up here will win you Chungking. Also, in the south, once Kweilin is taken that flanks the entire Changsha front, no river crossings, you are in great defensive terrain and your enemy is left defending clear terrain bases. To me, Kweilin is the key base to unhinge the entire Changsha front. Also, send large supply TF's directly up the river to Hankow on a regular basis and you won't have supply issues at all, you'll be able to build your forts and keep the troops moving 24/7.

I've had good success in China so far, but learned as I went. Knowing what I do now, I'd have struck harder and faster at the points I've mentioned and China would definitely be on the brink right now. Just my two cents and my AAR provides a glimpse of how I achieved my current position there if interested. Or look at Fletcher's AAR, he drove Sian to Kienko to Chungking and said he got enough supply to keep moving provided he guarded his supply LOC.

[Canoerebel]

On another matter, Cribtop, I appreciate your comment regarding your desire to think the whole China thing through to make sure it is consistent with the tenor of the game you and Cuttles were expecting.  That's the kind of sportsmanship anybody would expect from a good Texan.

I can tell you that from my perspective players are doing the greatest honor to the "real belligerants" by playing the cleanest, hardest hitting game possible.  In WWII, both the Axis and Allied sides probed for weak points.  When they found one they exploited it with everything possible.  To my way of thinking, we honor those men by adopting the same philosophy.

If we instead pull back with the idea of "this didn't happen in the real war and probably couldn't have happened," we fit the war into a small box of "what happened" that seriously detracts from the real essence of warfare.  If we're just repeating what happened, we lose most of the sense of evaluating a very complex situation, looking for opportunities that the complex situation creates, moving to act on thos opportunities, and then exploiting our successes.

I realize, however, that a sizeable chunk of AE players have a different approach.

[crsutton]

Lanchow is hard to take but a northern campaign is amazingly easy for the Japanese player. In my game Viperpol took a large right hook taking all the cities in Northern China using about five or six divisions and a bunch of armor. In the end, he was running a campaign in North China with a supply chain running about 1,000 miles back to his base but had no trouble supplying his forces. Meanwhile my units were constantly short of supply. It just drove me crazy as I made my plans based on the expectation that like in the real campaign, any thought of an offensive in North China would have been impossible or very difficult at best. It is the sobering part of your first campaign to discover how sometimes the game thwarts your expectations. I sometimes wonder if players who have no knowlege of the Pacific campaing might be better off as they won't play the game based on preconceived notions. In the end it was the Japanese tanks that did it. In open terrain, the Chinese army has no defense against them and there is no problem marching or supplying them over even alpine hex sides......