OT: Corona virus

[witpqs]

From the WHO situation report today, March 7, 2020.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200307-sitrep-47-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=27c364a4_2

[ushakov]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Meanwhile: "Democrats are about twice as likely as Republicans to say the coronavirus poses an imminent threat to the United States, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted this week."

I'm surprised a reputable pollster like Reuters allowed such a vague question - 'imminent threat' could have so many subjective meanings to the individual respondent that it seems almost meaningless!

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I wouldn't think of ignoring China. That's the only country's that's been most of the way through this thing. To this point, Johns Hopkins and basically every other reporting service I've seen accepts China's numbers. Those numbers are very instructive, IMO. If those numbers are called into question, I'll take due notice. That would be bad. But China's numbers offer the single biggest point of optimism, at this point.

The US health care system may be great in its technology and expertise, but access to it is an issue for tens of millions of citizens and undocumented workers. I cannot see containment without some measures to ensure their cases are taken care of regardless of ability to pay. For-profit hospitals are not going to do it pro-bono.

I would like to see increased production of isolation suits for the health care workers and all of the paraphernalia needed to treat patients. We might need things like mobile incinerators to go to ad-hoc treatment facilities. If it turns out these things cannot be used right now, I think most of them can be stored away for the next emergency.

[BBfanboy]

As if China hasn't suffered enough, one of the hotels they were using for COVID-19 treatment collapsed...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6644995/chin ... ronavirus/

[Scott_USN]

Interestingly children seem to be good at fighting it off. Mostly symptoms of mild cold. According to reports no children under 10 have died of the virus though they have had it. "There is very limited information on the symptoms of Covid-19 in children, but they appear to be mild - fever, runny nose and a cough." BBC

[Scott_USN]

Perhaps it is because their immune system is not as reactive as adults?

The coronavirus starts with a fever and a cough, these are symptoms many of us will deal with at winter.

But the virus can cause the immune system to over-react. One of the more severe symptoms is acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by widespread inflammation in the lungs.

Inflammation is how the body signals it is time to fight an infection and repair the body. At its simplest level it is why a cut feels sore, but it is actually a complex process throughout the body.

"Inflammation is a fine balancing act, if it goes wrong you die," says Dr Pankhania.

"The virus sets up cascading inflammation of organs; and severely inflamed organs cannot do what they're supposed to do."

[Wuffer]

Great analysis, Kull. Thank you for clarification.
So it left already the most dangerous acceleration.

Never the less South Korea showed how easily things could get out of control (in this case due to some fanatical morons) and how much additional afford is needed to win an uphill battle once the initiative is lost. (Btw, the measures and tools they used for this achievement regarding the SMS might or might not seen as appropriate in a more Western society, at least not the shame/blame by some irresponsible media).

Unfortunately here in Europe we are nowhere near this point, but still in an exponential (sic!) growing phase, a false feeling of safety (for example after direct flights to China were suspended in Italy's case _the beast_ was able to infiltrate the health system, a classic case of hospitalism). :-/
At least our kids (grandkids?) seemed to be fine, the median age of fatalities in Italy was > 80 y old.

Of course I would be glad proven wrong, while I never believed in these worst panic scenarios I still think this will become much bigger than an ordinary bad flu. Not to mention general behaviour...

But maybe we could agree that we are a) all dead in the long run anyway and b) society has always found the right answer (after trying everything else of course).
The fight has just begun, anything but hopeless, but a stress test for every Nation - fight back RIGHT NOW or you deserve to die. Nothing new.

but what did we know? good luck everyone
/out

[warspite1]

I posted this in the General Discussion thread on this topic. However, I believe that due to the seriousness of this, it behooves me to paste here too in case people haven't seen it.

I'm really surprised that no one commenting on these Coronavirus threads has picked up on the key news. It was reported in a newspaper in the UK on Friday that there is an area in California that has recorded its first case... and that is just ten miles from where the Kardashians live.

Can we get real here people - let's stay concentrated on what's important. I say again, ten miles.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I posted this in the General Discussion thread on this topic. However, I believe that due to the seriousness of this, it behooves me to paste here too in case people haven't seen it.

I'm really surprised that no one commenting on these Coronavirus threads has picked up on the key news. It was reported in a newspaper in the UK on Friday that there is an area in California that has recorded its first case... and that is just ten miles from where the Kardashians live.

Can we get real here people - let's stay concentrated on what's important. I say again, ten miles.

Every cloud has a silver lining

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I posted this in the General Discussion thread on this topic. However, I believe that due to the seriousness of this, it behooves me to paste here too in case people haven't seen it.

I'm really surprised that no one commenting on these Coronavirus threads has picked up on the key news. It was reported in a newspaper in the UK on Friday that there is an area in California that has recorded its first case... and that is just ten miles from where the Kardashians live.

Can we get real here people - let's stay concentrated on what's important. I say again, ten miles.

Every cloud has a silver lining

I agree. Can we somehow get it even closer?

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

As if China hasn't suffered enough, one of the hotels they were using for COVID-19 treatment collapsed...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6644995/chin ... ronavirus/

At the end of the story:

"China, where the virus first emerged in December, has confirmed more than 80,000 cases, by far the most in the world. It reported 99 new cases on Saturday, its first daily increase of less than 100 since Jan. 20. . . . "

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: obvert

How is the situation in China similar to what any other country is doing to battle this outbreak?

They didn’t shut events, they shut entire provinces down, and NO ONE could leave their homes. At all. Dozens of millions of people. So they did get the RO below 1, but those people also have no immunity to the disease and are now back at work and going about business as normal. When will the next phase begin and cases again spike there?

Europe and the US especially will never do what China did, and the strain we now have spreading may even be different than the one that began there. More transmittable but less virulent hopefully.

But they did NOT do that at the beginning. It took about a month, and by then 100's of thousands of people had passed through the infected areas and moved all across the country. It doesn't matter how draconian your response is - give the flu a 1-month head start and "containment" is laughable. But somehow, it worked in China....why is that? The infection rate. It takes time for this thing to spread. It is not exponential. 1 person doesn't infect 50, more like 3 or 5.

That's the silver lining here. The rate of transmission is low enough that even if you fail to contain it completely, the growth of cases in each area should still be slow enough that the medical system can keep pace.

Please link to where you've found infection rate numbers. Ive seen some different from what you're quoting. Obviously it would be great if they're much lower than flu, but lets have the data.

No one is being negative or pessimistic about this because they want to be. All indicators and professional opinions just seem to point toward an extended outbreak. This thread doesn't really matter in terms of outcomes or opinions of the general populace, but is for our own interest. So just as with the game, lets supply the necessary info (data and sources) to back up what we're saying. I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.

[obvert]

This from the Guardian's Covid-19 blog page today.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Indonesia confirmed on Sunday that two more people had tested positive for the coronavirus, taking the total of confirmed cases in the country to six.

One of the Indonesians is a 36-year-old male, a crew member on the Japan-docked Diamond Princess cruise ship where he contracted the virus, Health Ministry official Achmad Yurianto told a news briefing, according to Reuters.

The other Indonesian, a 55-year-old male, contracted the virus locally in Jakarta, Yurianto said.

“Both of them are in stable condition. They do not have fever, don’t need intravenous drip, oxygen, are not coughing, and don’t have a cold,” he said.[/font]

That last sentence has me both confused and worried. I get why the one from the Diamond Princess would have been tested, but why the other, who also apparently is asymptomatic? If people are moving around who have no symptoms, and are positive, they can do anything, go anywhere, and some of them undoubtedly will.

I was at a football match in South London, at Crystal Palace, but sitting in the visitor's stands with Watford fans. Mostly business as usual. Lots of singing and swearing. It was interesting that one pre-match song was a chant essentially taunting the Coronavirus. A group of young men brandishing pints and basically chanting "bring it on," we'll continue to defy it and drink our way through.

The young so often think they're invincible, and if they carry the virus asymptomatically, will spread it to others.

What to do about this? I really don't know.

With March Madness coming on, the NBA playoffs soon to follow, the football leagues in Europe moving toward their final months, and a lot of other ritual events of spring like Spring Break and Easter the will undoubtedly still lead to people getting out and gathering in large numbers. Especially the young.

Italy has just suspended top flight matches and further restricted movement from the North, but will it work? Is it too late?

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Please link to where you've found infection rate numbers. Ive seen some different from what you're quoting. Obviously it would be great if they're much lower than flu, but lets have the data.

No one is being negative or pessimistic about this because they want to be. All indicators and professional opinions just seem to point toward an extended outbreak. This thread doesn't really matter in terms of outcomes or opinions of the general populace, but is for our own interest. So just as with the game, lets supply the necessary info (data and sources) to back up what we're saying. I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.

Almost every one of my posts has links. I don't put anything out there that isn't coming from a primary source. Here's my post from two days ago:

ORIGINAL: Kull

The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)" is quite informative, especially the first 15 pages (where they concentrate on facts and science).

The contact tracing was particularly informative (although there's lots of other good stuff - read it, damn it!!) Here's one example:

As of 17 February, in Shenzhen City, among 2842 identified close contacts, 2842 (100%) were traced and 2240 (72%) have completed medical observation. Among the close contacts, 88 (2.8%) were found to be infected with COVID-19.

Let that sink in. Among CLOSE CONTACTS, the transmission rate was 2.8%. The other examples were similar. Good luck hearing that from the media.

And here's another post comparing those transmission rates to the flu.

ORIGINAL: obvert

I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.

BTW, that snide little shot is extremely offensive. I've done nothing over the past week BUT collect (and present) facts and data - don't accuse me of offering unsubstantiated opinions when it's you who hasn't bothered to read the posts or click the links.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: obvert

Please link to where you've found infection rate numbers. Ive seen some different from what you're quoting. Obviously it would be great if they're much lower than flu, but lets have the data.

No one is being negative or pessimistic about this because they want to be. All indicators and professional opinions just seem to point toward an extended outbreak. This thread doesn't really matter in terms of outcomes or opinions of the general populace, but is for our own interest. So just as with the game, lets supply the necessary info (data and sources) to back up what we're saying. I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.

Almost every one of my posts has links. I don't put anything out there that isn't coming from a primary source. Here's my post from two days ago:

ORIGINAL: Kull

The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)" is quite informative, especially the first 15 pages (where they concentrate on facts and science).

The contact tracing was particularly informative (although there's lots of other good stuff - read it, damn it!!) Here's one example:

As of 17 February, in Shenzhen City, among 2842 identified close contacts, 2842 (100%) were traced and 2240 (72%) have completed medical observation. Among the close contacts, 88 (2.8%) were found to be infected with COVID-19.

Let that sink in. Among CLOSE CONTACTS, the transmission rate was 2.8%. The other examples were similar. Good luck hearing that from the media.

And here's another post comparing those transmission rates to the flu.

ORIGINAL: obvert

I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.

BTW, that snide little shot is extremely offensive. I've done nothing over the past week BUT collect (and present) facts and data - don't accuse me of offering unsubstantiated opinions when it's you who hasn't bothered to read the posts or click the links.

I'm speaking to everyone and to you. It's not snide. It's based on your previous post. Which had no information. Just calm down and don't take such offence. I'm not. [;)]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: obvert

Please link to where you've found infection rate numbers. Ive seen some different from what you're quoting. Obviously it would be great if they're much lower than flu, but lets have the data.

No one is being negative or pessimistic about this because they want to be. All indicators and professional opinions just seem to point toward an extended outbreak. This thread doesn't really matter in terms of outcomes or opinions of the general populace, but is for our own interest. So just as with the game, lets supply the necessary info (data and sources) to back up what we're saying. I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.

Almost every one of my posts has links. I don't put anything out there that isn't coming from a primary source. Here's my post from two days ago:

ORIGINAL: Kull

The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)" is quite informative, especially the first 15 pages (where they concentrate on facts and science).

The contact tracing was particularly informative (although there's lots of other good stuff - read it, damn it!!) Here's one example:

As of 17 February, in Shenzhen City, among 2842 identified close contacts, 2842 (100%) were traced and 2240 (72%) have completed medical observation. Among the close contacts, 88 (2.8%) were found to be infected with COVID-19.

Let that sink in. Among CLOSE CONTACTS, the transmission rate was 2.8%. The other examples were similar. Good luck hearing that from the media.

And here's another post comparing those transmission rates to the flu.

ORIGINAL: obvert

I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.

BTW, that snide little shot is extremely offensive. I've done nothing over the past week BUT collect (and present) facts and data - don't accuse me of offering unsubstantiated opinions when it's you who hasn't bothered to read the posts or click the links.

I'm speaking to everyone and to you. It's not snide. It's based on your previous post. Which had no information. Just calm down and don't take such offence. I'm not. [;)]

Just make sure than that you don't get into close, personal contact with those young men. [;)]

Just be careful and make sure that you take proper precautions. That will help the most. The vaccine is being worked on already.

[Kull]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm speaking to everyone and to you. It's not snide. It's based on your previous post. Which had no information. Just calm down and don't take such offence. I'm not. [;)]

Edit: My response was also the definition of snide. Uncalled for. My apologies. [:(]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: obvert

Please link to where you've found infection rate numbers. Ive seen some different from what you're quoting. Obviously it would be great if they're much lower than flu, but lets have the data.

No one is being negative or pessimistic about this because they want to be. All indicators and professional opinions just seem to point toward an extended outbreak. This thread doesn't really matter in terms of outcomes or opinions of the general populace, but is for our own interest. So just as with the game, lets supply the necessary info (data and sources) to back up what we're saying. I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.

Almost every one of my posts has links. I don't put anything out there that isn't coming from a primary source. Here's my post from two days ago:

ORIGINAL: Kull

The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)" is quite informative, especially the first 15 pages (where they concentrate on facts and science).

The contact tracing was particularly informative (although there's lots of other good stuff - read it, damn it!!) Here's one example:

As of 17 February, in Shenzhen City, among 2842 identified close contacts, 2842 (100%) were traced and 2240 (72%) have completed medical observation. Among the close contacts, 88 (2.8%) were found to be infected with COVID-19.

Let that sink in. Among CLOSE CONTACTS, the transmission rate was 2.8%. The other examples were similar. Good luck hearing that from the media.

Ok. So here is a piece from the WHO report from mid-Feb you linked. The RO is the number of people a carrier transmits the disease to while infected.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]At some point early in the outbreak, some cases generated human-to-human transmission chains that seeded the subsequent community outbreak prior to the implementation of the comprehensive control measures that were rolled out in Wuhan. The dynamics likely approximated mass action and radiated from Wuhan to other parts of Hubei province and China, which explains a relatively high R0 of 2-2.5.[/font]

Also this, about the extensive and innovative implementation of containment that was driven by early detection and isolation/treatment of cases. This led to a drop in deaths per case throughout the outbreak there.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]As striking, has been the uncompromising rigor of strategy application that proved to be a hallmark in every setting and context where it was examined. There has also been a relentless focus on improving key performance indicators, for example constantly enhancing the speed of case detection, isolation and early treatment.
[/font]

interestingly, the RO quoted here is 2-2.5. Similar but slightly lower than the WHO listed RO from the later Bloomberg article, which was 2.8. The RO for seasonal flu is 1.3.

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Could Covid-19 really spread as widely as the flu? If allowed to, sure. The standard metric for infectiousness is what’s called the reproduction number, or R0. It is usually pronounced “R naught,” and the zero after the R should be rendered in subscript, but it’s a simple enough concept. An R0 of one means each person with the disease can be expected to infect one more person. If the number dips below one, the disease will peter out. If it gets much above one, the disease can spread rapidly.[/font]

They went on to say though that influenza may transmit more effectively if it's 30-50% asymtomaitic transfer rate is above that of Covid-19. So it's important to find out more about these asymptomatic cases.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm speaking to everyone and to you. It's not snide. It's based on your previous post. Which had no information. Just calm down and don't take such offence. I'm not. [;)]

Edit: My response was also the definition of snide. Uncalled for. My apologies. [:(]

Accepted. I did read your links just now. I'd read some of it before but without knowing enough to know what was most relevant to recent events. I was only looking for stuff from the recent post and hadn't realised it was in the 15 page document. I found it, and posted about it above.

[JohnDillworth]

Using the John Hopkins numbers I see an interesting anomaly. Assuming reporting from Korea and Italy is accurate, and there is no reason tho think it isn't, the 2 countries have wildly different mortality rates. Korea is well below 1% while Italy is at 4%. Either the responses are significantly different or they are counting mortality differently. Meaning Korea may only be counting people that strictly died from this and Italy may be attributing already sick people that also passed while testing positive. Interesting data point to watch