ORIGINAL: Mogami
Hi, It appears hopeless. I am going to try one last time and then leave you to your own devises.
1. Having results that occur in many games DURING THE SAME PERIOD OF THE WAR can be caused by things other then the TF not targeting transports. Fail to hit a ship is not a design flaw. Failure to target a ship is. Examples where ships are fired on but not hit are not examples of where ships are not targeted. Since you cannot tell us what the example you posted was we cannot use it.
2. The subject of this thread is not "Poor Allied results early in War" It is "Ships not being targeted when spotted" once again not "My ships can't hit the broadside of a barn"
To be used as an example a player has to
1. Encounter enemy transport TF in daylight without escort
2. See that enemy Transports are spotted (you can see their name in animation)
3. Have enough surface ships to engage all the spotted ships.
4. See that no surface ship fire at the spotted ship (not sinks, or damages or even hits just fails to fire)
What cannot be used is when
1. Encounter enemy TF at night without escort. (might be a problem but not the same problem I am currently checking)
(more transports should not be spotted. However those that are spotted should be fired at if there are enough surface ships to do so )(The current problem with daylight is ships are being protected as if they had done a night time scatter when in fact they have been spotted)
2. Encounter with enemy TF in daylight without escort where all spotted ships take fire or there are more spotted ships then surface ships and the number of transports fired at is equal to or greater then the number of surface ships present. Just because they miss does not make it this problem.
This problem is scattered ships and spotted ships are being given the same protection. Once a ship evades (scatters) it should not be spotted and is immune to fire. Spotted ships are those that have been caught and they should be exposed to fire.
If you can't see what I am talking about it is because you choose not to. I'm really posting this response so all the other readers can understand.
This is what Joel is concerned about. Not poor shooting by Allies. There will be hundreds of valid surface engagements where the Allies do not hit what they shoot at.
All I can see are combat results. AAR's that have roughly the same general makeup of anywhere from 4-50+ enescorted transport TF's (AK/TK/AP's) being engaged by surface combat TF's of a MIXED vessle type of roughly a few CLs, maybe a CA, and 6-10 DD's, engaging in daylight. Almost EVERYONE of these examples show results where ONE transport gets 90+% of all hits, one other tends to get another 5-7% and the other 3-5% hit on one a few others. Attacking surface TF's made up all DD's attacking the same transport TF's do NOT seem to have the same problem, only attackers of MIXED type do, if that has any significance to you.
All I have to identify the problem are results. I don't know WHY they come out the way they do, nor do I really care, although you description of the problem source sounds just fine to me. I'm not really interested in the technical details of the underlieing model at all. I'm not interested in all the "scattering, spotting, shooting, whatevers....that's you and Joel's baliwick. And I am not concerned over the ensuing damage levels either. As far as I'm concerned the damage resolution from hits works fine. The spread of hits themselves that's at issue.
All I, as a USER, see and care about is the END RESULT taken over the AGGREGATE of these types of engagement. HOW you fix it, IF you fix it at all, is your issue and problem. The proof it has been fixed is when the USERS see a better "scatter" of hits across more AK's taken over the AGGREGATE of ALL similar type engagements. If one or two are still "whacky" well that's chance, but the averages should be more "realistic".
Reading on and on about all the intricate details of how surface combat is resolved leads me to believe the entire surface combat resolution engine is somewhat "over designed" from the get-go taken in context with the overall abstraction level of the game. I think Gary's ancient surface to surface combat resolution system in the old North Atlantic '86 game would have been just fine here as well. And that was what, maybe 50 lines of Applesoft basic code? But that's neither here nor there.