OT: Corona virus

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RangerJoe
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by RangerJoe »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I tend to post what I see, no matter the country, no matter the source if I consider it reliable enough.

You don't have to be an expert to make sense of this although having experts in the various fields comment here does help. Too bad Chickenboy does not return. We also have a MD in the front lines, so to speak, as well as an expert in handling the emergency response system.

+1

In the US, the sense of crisis really began to mature in February. A flood of information was coming out. Most of it alarming.

Knowing the diversity of the Forum community, and in particular the expertise of several members (as Ranger points out), I started this thread on 2/26, just as things were beginning to improve in China and deteriorate in South Korea. In many ways it was dawn.

My three children are in their 20s and haven't been through anything like this before. I wrote them describing some prior events (SARS, H1N1) that might give an idea as to how these things play out. Given the proclivity of the media for sensationalizing and politicizing, I turned to you all. Hard data and the collective input from this community seemed to offer a more mature and reliable measure of what was going on and what might happen.

Weekly and sometimes daily reports to my kids have been mostly taken from information posted here by so many contributors. Because of you, those reports have been consistently more optimistic and realistic than what they'd otherwise be getting through the media and social media. Consequently, they've had a better handle on this, complying assiduously with the regulations but not controlled by the hysteria of social media.

We're still in the thick of it, especially some countries and states and cities, but things are beginning to come into focus, especially in places like Italy, Spain, and much of the US.

Thank you for contributing.

I also pass on things that I find here and elsewhere to people that I have contact with. Some work, some are elderly.
Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing! :o

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
:twisted: ; Julia Child


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Canoerebel
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

Yesterday, I finished re-reading Stephen Ambrose's Band of Brothers. Following our discussion yesterday that touched on optimism and pessimism, last night I began re-reading Ambrose's The Victors, which includes this passage on pages 19-20: "Nor could [General George Marshall] abide the pessimist. He surrounded himself with men who were offensive-minded and who concentrated on possibilities rather than the difficulties."

I'd quibble with Marshall, at least as it pertains to this virus. Having a healthy mix of both would be helpful. During college, I competed in intercollegiate forestry competitions, including the estimation of tree diameter. We'd be taken to a point 10 feet from a massive loblolly pine or a sapling yellow poplar an asked to estimate its diameter. We repeated the process for ten trees. I came in second to a rascal from Clemson University. My method was to take stock of the tree and then hazard a guess well above and well below what I thought was realistic. Thus calibrated, I'd work up and down from the two extremes until comfortable with a best guess.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »


"It's really not my habit to intrude
Furthermore, I hope my meaning
Won't be lost or misconstrued
But I'll repeat myself
At the risk of being crude...."


“The intent is if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” concluded Birx."






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HansBolter
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by HansBolter »

ORIGINAL: obvert
ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: obvert

A few bumps, but overall, especially at times that invite more international participation, the thread is very productive. I notice no conflict at all between the hours of 06:00 GMT and about 10:00 GMT. [;)]

Is there any time soon that you intend to dial back your offensive commentary?

I'll wait for a civil response before applying the green button.

I think you only copied a portion of my statement. I edited it for you. It's not intended to be offensive. Just observatory.

I also noticed the timecode on your post, GMT.



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It's the observation that is offensive. Stating that the discussion becomes productive when it becomes international, is implicitly stating that it can't be productive when it's domestic.

What on earth does the time stamp of my post have anything to do with anything? I wake very early in the morning, by local time.
Hans

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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »

Iam reminded of the Woody Allen movie Bananas when the Dictator says:

"All citizens will be required to change their underwear every half-hour. Underwear will be worn on the outside so we can check."






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RangerJoe
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by RangerJoe »

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There is a more deadly virus,,,

Annual Global Road Crash Statistics

Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled. More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44.



A lot of those crashes are caused by a loose nut. The one that holds the steering wheel. [:D]

Driving in Germany was FUN![:D]
Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing! :o

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
:twisted: ; Julia Child


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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There is a more deadly virus,,,

Annual Global Road Crash Statistics

Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled. More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44.



A lot of those crashes are caused by a loose nut. The one that holds the steering wheel. [:D]

Driving in Germany was FUN![:D]


Therefore Billy Gates and the Government should drive our cars for us






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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »



A short primer on coronavirus biology
Hutch virologist explains viral pandemics and COVID-19


https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/cente ... rimer.html


Coronsvirus causes flu-like symptoms






"The flu and coronaviruses transmit to new cells by bundling their genetic material into virus particles. But the flu also packages proteins with specialized activity, called enzymes, to facilitate entry into target cells.

Coronaviruses don’t need to add enzymes to their particles because they co-opt host-cell enzymes to slip inside cells. But enzymes quickly lose activity. By including them, flu viruses limit their shelf life.
By leaving enzymes behind, coronaviruses extend the time that they stay infectious outside the body, Emerman explained."


"The cold-causing coronaviruses follow a seasonal pattern much like the seasonal flu: up in the winter, down in the summer. But they never go away completely.""




So I feel like Iam dying from the flu but Iam not.






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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »

According to the letter I post a few pages back:



"US data on influenza deaths are false and misleading.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acknowledges a difference between flu death and flu associated death yet uses the terms interchangeably.

Additionally, there are significant statistical incompatibilities between official estimates and national vital statistics data.

Compounding these problems is a marketing of fear—a CDC communications strategy in which medical experts "predict dire outcomes" during flu seasons."






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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »


And the study, from a few years ago, on the flu in Glasgow Scotland that I posted said that Coronavirus caused around 11% of the flu for the years studied.






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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yesterday, I finished re-reading Stephen Ambrose's Band of Brothers. Following our discussion yesterday that touched on optimism and pessimism, last night I began re-reading Ambrose's The Victors, which includes this passage on pages 19-20: "Nor could [General George Marshall] abide the pessimist. He surrounded himself with men who were offensive-minded and who concentrated on possibilities rather than the difficulties."

I'd quibble with Marshall, at least as it pertains to this virus. Having a healthy mix of both would be helpful. During college, I competed in intercollegiate forestry competitions, including the estimation of tree diameter. We'd be taken to a point 10 feet from a massive loblolly pine or a sapling yellow poplar an asked to estimate its diameter. We repeated the process for ten trees. I came in second to a rascal from Clemson University. My method was to take stock of the tree and then hazard a guess well above and well below what I thought was realistic. Thus calibrated, I'd work up and down from the two extremes until comfortable with a best guess.


You were being "positive" and "very positive".

"Iam very optimistic about my pessimism"






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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »

The pandemic strengthens the case for universal basic income
7 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... li=BBnb7Kz

"“Americans across the political spectrum are calling for the government to spend very large sums of money to keep families on their feet, to keep small business afloat, and to keep the economy from collapsing. And there is a growing recognition that cash grants do that in a way that provides maximum flexibility in a time of drastic uncertainty and rapid change.”"

--------------

Let me sit down at the computer and I will give everyone 10 million dollars.






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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

Data from a few European nations is in.

Netherlands is holding steady. Belgium is way up.

(For Spain, see report earlier today.)

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"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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MakeeLearn
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by MakeeLearn »



Are the deaths "From Coronavirus" or "With Coronavirus"






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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: obvert
ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Wuffer




To be honest, there is no specific covid-19 test available worldwide - they react to other corona types too = false positive. Otherwise it would be a real game changer.
Many claimed, but no one delivered, e.g. the actual german PR disaster.
The point of the article is they (in the US) did not get to begin deploying tests because they had to go through red tape which included archaic requirements.

Red tape has followed this in so many places, not just the US. The sereology tests here are said to be delayed until mid-may, the claim being they're not accurate enough yet. Probably the same as Wuffer mentioned in Germany.
That at least is substantive rather than Red Tape (Red Tape example: "Hey there! You only included two copies instead of three!"). I know none of this stuff is easy or gets done by magic.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: warspite1
ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Nomad



I sure hope we pick door #1

Judging by some of the proposals in this article I sure hope we pick neither. Somewhere in between please.
warspite1

I read the article....

Just another one of those - this is what we should do without paying any attention to how that is actually to be achieved.

The US failed to learn from the UK. The UK had a head start on everyone, was the world's first industrialised country and thought the sun would never set. Even as countries, hungry to compete - began to encroach and then take over from the UK, the warning signs weren't heeded.

Other countries learned, and improved - they did things better, more cheaply and...... USA (and the west generally) saw it happen - hell they were the beneficiaries of the UK's seeming inability to react.

Then what happened to the self-satisfied UK, happened to the equally bloated west, as Asia awoke - led by Japan. Massively successful corporations like General Motors having more people on the pension roll than were actually making cars.

Sure, America can hark back to better times - but if that harking back is to be turned into practical solutions to turn things around its going to take more than a few wistful memories of the USA's impressive response to Pearl.

I agree with all of what you wrote except this.
Just another one of those - this is what we should do without paying any attention to how that is actually to be achieved.
The first thing required is to recognized and decide what direction to proceed. That's what this article is about.

If we expect any article to contain all the 'how to do it' needed then we are manifesting one of the major failings which got us here in the first place, greedy laziness. And that is all over the place. Consider how much goes on with respect to this very topic (COVID-19): it seems that many people consider screaming about infection tests and antibody tests (and on and on) is all it takes to achieve them.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

I understand your point. At some point, science/statisticians will sort through these things and reconcile reports, hopefully accurately.

Right now this is the best we have to work with. As long as it is consistent in its methodology, there's utility in what we're doing, as mentioned a time or two yesterday.

IE, if Nigeria reports cases a certain way on April 10 and the same way through April 25, there's utility in the info even if I might disagree with the parameters of the tabulations.

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
Are the deaths "From Coronavirus" or "With Coronavirus"
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus
ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

A cry-baby no doubt.

The US as we knew them (pre-2008) are finished. You want to stop historical processes and that is not going to work eh. Yes, sure, an asteriod could hit Shanghai tomorrow. Or a mega tsunami swallow the whole US continental landmass for that matter. Or the aliens... or whatever...

The basic historical process is that capitalism has already migrated to the east. Do I need to say it? Power and strenght are where capitalism flourishes (China as we speak, are you following me, captain knucklehead?). Many people don't get this massive geopolitical shift going on under our very eyes. We are living interesting times no doubt.

There were various US. Pre civil war, you had a nation of free farmers. Post civil war, a robber barons' industrialised state. After FDR and WW2, the golden age, a nation with flourishing working and middle classes ;)

Well, reaganomics brought in fact the future proletarisation of these two classes (the middle class is in fact going to extinction as we speak). On the other hand US plutocrats made obscene fortunes, as per the plan eh.

So you're talking about an US that do not exist anymore in the first place. It's finito, kaputt, over. You seem to not grasp the most basic capitalist concepts. Capitalism demands one thing above everything else: cheap labour. No Chinese wall can stop this drive rofl Manufactures are not coming back, you naive souls... unless you accept Chinese (or Vietnamese, Mexican etc) wages. The most ironic fact is that ONLY socialism would have stopped this historical process. You're gunna luv capitalism's tendencies (which you do not even understand).

I have not the slightest doubt that your oligarchic masters will keep thriving selling their slices of paper until the world says "hey man, we don't want your slices of paper anymore" (munching their caviar with their Chinese, European counterparts), but the conditions that made possible post FDR's golden age have already disappeared: a healthy, sane working and middle classes. That WAS the real backbone of US prosperity and grandeur.

Oh, the last sign (of a serie of many signs). China knocks US from top spot in global patent race...

But perhaps the most clear sign of the state of decay is Mr Maduro's affair. It is well known that the Caribbean Sea always was a vital strategic zone. Well, looks like the US cannot even impose their will on this critical area (their hilarious puppet Guaidollar that is). Houston, we have a problem! And funny ignorant captain knucklehead here wants to force the Chinese to pay trillions HAHAHAHAHA poor troll who's not understood anything... keep braying, bigmouth, you're hilarious!


This is false:
You seem to not grasp the most basic capitalist concepts. Capitalism demands one thing above everything else: cheap labour.
"Cheap Labor" or cheap anything makes any system easier, but it is far from the being key to capitalism. Based on what you wrote, we disagree about so much I won't give the time to discuss this with you.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: warspite1
ORIGINAL: obvert




Judging by some of the proposals in this article I sure hope we pick neither. Somewhere in between please.
warspite1

I read the article....

Just another one of those - this is what we should do without paying any attention to how that is actually to be achieved.

The US failed to learn from the UK. The UK had a head start on everyone, was the world's first industrialised country and thought the sun would never set. Even as countries, hungry to compete - began to encroach and then take over from the UK, the warning signs weren't heeded.

Other countries learned, and improved - they did things better, more cheaply and...... USA (and the west generally) saw it happen - hell they were the beneficiaries of the UK's seeming inability to react.

Then what happened to the self-satisfied UK, happened to the equally bloated west, as Asia awoke - led by Japan. Massively successful corporations like General Motors having more people on the pension roll than were actually making cars.

Sure, America can hark back to better times - but if that harking back is to be turned into practical solutions to turn things around its going to take more than a few wistful memories of the USA's impressive response to Pearl.

I agree with all of what you wrote except this.
Just another one of those - this is what we should do without paying any attention to how that is actually to be achieved.
The first thing required is to recognized and decide what direction to proceed. That's what this article is about.

If we expect any article to contain all the 'how to do it' needed then we are manifesting one of the major failings which got us here in the first place, greedy laziness. And that is all over the place. Consider how much goes on with respect to this very topic (COVID-19): it seems that many people consider screaming about infection tests and antibody tests (and on and on) is all it takes to achieve them.
warspite1

Fair point sir!
Now Maitland, now's your time!

Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
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witpqs
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I understand your point. At some point, science/statisticians will sort through these things and reconcile reports, hopefully accurately.

Right now this is the best we have to work with. As long as it is consistent in its methodology, there's utility in what we're doing, as mentioned a time or two yesterday.

IE, if Nigeria reports cases a certain way on April 10 and the same way through April 25, there's utility in the info even if I might disagree with the parameters of the tabulations.

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
Are the deaths "From Coronavirus" or "With Coronavirus"
Apparently this sort of thing is raising questions for some:
Minnesota doctor blasts 'ridiculous' CDC coronavirus death count guidelines
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