The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

night all...really late here

[DTurtle]

So, you hit a major enemy city protected by over 800 enemy fighters, and despite heavy clouds/severe storms managed to destroy a third of the factories in that city, while losing less than 50 bombers?

[crsutton]

I don't consider it a bad first attack. The hits could be better but all of the Tonys, Franks, Georges, and Jacks are service rating 3. You no doubt have damaged many and these first line aircraft will sometimes take a week to get back in action. You should go in again soon and I would expect you to see less of his first line fighters in the air. 30 factory hits means hundreds of planes that won't get built in the long run. Also, you now have FOW. It is very possible that you had more hits but I don't know if that is how it works with the changes. Lets see if your recon shows you had better results.

Now that you can free up some carriers, you might want to go raid his oil and refineries. I would think that he would have to then send some fighters to cover these critical resources. I don't see where he would have a choice if his oil is threatened. I don't know how his stocks are but considering that it is still mid 44, the loss of his oil supplies would eventually hurt his factories as well.

[pat.casey]

Not bad really.
194 factory points for 140 or so aircraft on your part... <40 bombers

Repeat 15 times and he is probably done

[JeffroK]

Right, you dont win a campaign with one battle, in addition to lost production is around 300 aircraft.
I hope you kept back enough 4E to keep up a continued attack and allow units to rotate on rest.

Keep looking at targets, swap around so that he cant settle down. A totally unsubstantiated feelingto me is that you get diminishing returns so let rader choose to repair his factories and use up supply or keep them permanently damaged and lose production.

With recent comment about landing in Korea. What does it get for you or remove for rader. Can it be carried out and sustained in the face of opposition? Come up with the right questions and see if they can be answered. Then ask them again.&nbsp;&nbsp; Follow the same thought process and tactics which got you Hokkaido.

IFFF you do coose this route, have a look at landings at Wake and Marcus in the days before to draw off attention, though rader could probably base LBA to cover both approaches.

[krupp_88mm]

how much does it cost to repair a factory, is it 1000 supply per point per day?

because that means he will loose 194,000 supply to repair those factories and probably loose alot of planes as well from lost production

its a shame that alot of your bombs fell on a6m2 production, but its nice that you did get some modern twin engine

like others said he probably has big pools of older fighter types but bombing his most recent and modern fighter factories will produce a real and immediate impact

so if im you i bomb the most modern factories you can find first.. while at the same time prepare multiple invasions around honshu or islands threatening his supply line to the DEI or for fighter bases around southern middle / honshu, also just curious where are your b-17/s at?

[jmalter]

hi GJ,

i'll bet that it feels real good, now you've started to put serious hurt on the enemy airframe factories - moving beyond attrition warfare into the realm where you exchange losses in your current strength for losses to his future strength.

it might take awhile, but you'll find the correct operation-tempo to keep your strat-bomber force effective.

meanwhile, you're organizing to bring in a major re-supply to Hokkaido,&nbsp; & i gather you are planning to wipe out the eastern Kuriles.

after which, you'll have bulk CV & Amph assets available to strike at any desired target, your existing CVE TFs will be sufficient to escort future resupply from Seattle to Hokkaido. you'll be getting bulk amph-support ships (LSMR & LSIG) that will aid your amph-jump from Hok to Hon. meanwhile, continue to expend your minesweepers against possible amph-targets.

IJN might try to hurt you w/ a deep strike against your resupply, but now you're in a position to contest the KB's attack w/ half your CVs, then intercept his retirement w/ the other half.

best regards!

[Smeulders]

I'm not sure how good the Japanese supply situation should be at this point in the war, but if Radar would still have the supplies to repair his factories, it would seem better to me to focus on fewer factories. Now you've damaged 9 different factories, but if Radar has the supply to repair, he can do so at a high speed, of 9 factories points a day. If you focus on 2 or 3 very important plane types, you'd have done more damage to those and it would take a lot longer to repair all the damage, because he could only repair 2 or 3 points a day. There is the disadvantage that you might run into diminishing returns as it might be harder to hit an already damaged factory, but I wonder whether it wouldn't be better overall.

Numerical example, say you hit 10 factories for 10 points each. In the first day he looses 100/30 production, the next day 90/30, 80/30 and so on. In total he'll lose (10/30)*10/2 = 1,666 planes in lost production per factory, 16,6666 in total, spread out over all plane types. Now say you hit one factory for only 32 points (Note that this is only 32% of the total hits in the previous example), the lost production will be (32/30)*32/2 = 17,066 planes of the plane type of your choice.

The question of course is, what am I overlooking ?

P.S (Note that the calculation I used is the surface of a triangle, height is the lost production on the first day, basis is the time needed to repair all damage)

[Nemo121]

Smeulders,
I believe your figures are off by a factor of 30. Your basic point : Better to concentrate on the better fighters ( Hit Ki-84s in preference to A6M2s ) is good of course.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Keep looking at targets, swap around so that he cant settle down. A totally unsubstantiated feelingto me is that you get diminishing returns so let rader choose to repair his factories and use up supply or keep them permanently damaged and lose production.

Quite a while back I remember a developer comment (don't recall who) that there are diminishing returns. When you attack an industry type item, the hits you achieve are applied to it randomly. Meaning that each hit has a chance to hit a 'point' (or whatever it's called) that is already damaged. Yet a little more realism they coded in!

[GreyJoy]

Ok guys, we've done another turn (19-20 May '44) that was quiet...i rested most of my bomber and fighter crews.
Now i'll start rotating 2 big groups of 4Es of 300 planes each.

Tomorrow offensive will be directed against Hammamatsu. I wanna wipe out the KI-83 production factories. 3 of them (153 planes total) are based at Hammamatsu. We're gonna try to concentrate only on these factories.
200 P-37s will sweep from Hakkodate (now finally lvl 9 AF), while 75 Corsairs will provide close escort support to 370 Liberators (only two models: the J model and the Navy P4BY).
The base is very well defended and sorrounded by lots of AFs full of enemy fighters. We foresee the same brutal defensive reaction we got yesterday.

Another smaller operation will be carried on from Bihoro. 200 2Es will bomb the refineries at Aika. 125 P-47D2s will sweep the base (no opposition expected) whilesome old corsairs will provide close air support.
We're keeping our P-38s, along with the P-51s for the next 4Es offensive.

I'm sniffing the KB between the Panama Channell and PH...we're sending our CVs to PH....let's see if my 6th sense is right...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: jmalter

hi GJ,

i'll bet that it feels real good, now you've started to put serious hurt on the enemy airframe factories - moving beyond attrition warfare into the realm where you exchange losses in your current strength for losses to his future strength.

it might take awhile, but you'll find the correct operation-tempo to keep your strat-bomber force effective.

meanwhile, you're organizing to bring in a major re-supply to Hokkaido,  & i gather you are planning to wipe out the eastern Kuriles.

after which, you'll have bulk CV & Amph assets available to strike at any desired target, your existing CVE TFs will be sufficient to escort future resupply from Seattle to Hokkaido. you'll be getting bulk amph-support ships (LSMR & LSIG) that will aid your amph-jump from Hok to Hon. meanwhile, continue to expend your minesweepers against possible amph-targets.

IJN might try to hurt you w/ a deep strike against your resupply, but now you're in a position to contest the KB's attack w/ half your CVs, then intercept his retirement w/ the other half.

best regards!

Yes, i'm keeping my CVEs (they are a very strong asset by now) in northern seas, while our CVs are moving in inner lines looking for the KB...and i know the KB is moving around looking for preys... i'm capting radio volumes all around the southern seas and i'm pretty sure we have identified the KB near Palmyra 2 turns ago... A battle in those waters could really be decisive!

The more i think of it and the more i think i'll have to invade Japan itself. Korea would be too risky and a landing in the Bonins or in the Mariannas or Formosa will mean to expose my whole fleet to his might LBA+KB power.... no, i really think the best option is to land at Ominato - or something like that- with a Huge stack, under the cover of my CVE+LBA from Hakkodate, while waves of bombers will pound the defenders along with my BBs and while my CVs would be free to look for the KB which will surely be called into action....

However now let's focus on the strategic campaign and on the last phase of suddenly hairy (the conquest of eastern Kuriles)

[Crackaces]

I think this is a very intersting situaiton. This game is sitting mid-44 with 2E's finding viable targets on the home islands. Forget thinking about sacrificing thousands of Marines to grab some far off distant airfield with no fighter support .. GreyJoy is putting fighters and almost every bomber type over the home islands .. again I emphasize mid-'44.

I am clueless I admit .. so I shall not expose my ignorance by commenting .. but I have to think even the least optimum strategy as long as hundreds of bombers are focused on something, it is going to eventually bring down the empire. Whether it is oil. fuel, aircraft, HI .. etc. My understanding in this game that with the IJ it is all interconnected and any part of the linkage taken out affects the other parts. So the biggest mistake I understand is to pull off a Goering and shift strategies just when the inital strategy is being effective. Even in this case a lot of stuff are going to find targets and the amunt of fighters over the targets is simply amazing at this stage of the game.

I would assume there is some optimum order like take aircraft factories out first because it has some greater affect that I will never understand at least ..

Anyway .. it is interesting to watch this unfold. Not all the airforces have been marshalled yet and a lot of damage is being done .. [;)]

[kfsgo]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Tomorrow offensive will be directed against Hammamatsu.[/img]

A point for further attacks against coastal targets - having a submarine (well, probably any ship, but it ain't exactly practical to send a cruiser...) in-hex will significantly increase your chances of recovering downed pilots. Since pilot losses seem to be a major concern, it seems to me you could snip a couple of subs off the northeastern end of that blockade you have going to sprint into targeted coastal hexes for a day.

[GreyJoy]

Thanks Crackeces and Kfsogo! Yes, i will try that!

A fast review of the replay....

Only on the 21st we had mission over Hammamtsu... the following day too many storms...
Our coordination is getting even worse...now several sweep missions of 16 P-47s and 9 Liberators alone...[:(]

However i think we mostly destroyed KI-83 production at Hammamatsu and the 2Es nuked the rafineries at Aika...so far so good

Our CL/DDs in SOPAC sunk an AV, 4 PBs and 3 xAKLs near shortland, losing 1 DD due to enemy dive bombers based at Green is.

Rader is trying to evacuate again Russell and Thousands...intercepted several Mavis over there today...



AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 21, 44
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Day Time Surface Combat, near Shortlands at 110,129, Range 18,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
AV Shinryu Maru, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Case

Only posting this cause it's the most valuable pray today in SOPAC...the unlucky DD Case was later sunk by 24 Judys...



---------------------
...and here come my coordination problems.... Same base, Air HQ present with best leader....same plane type...same altitude...


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Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 44 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 39
A6M5 Zero x 253
J2M3 Jack x 25
N1K1-J George x 143
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 21
Ki-100-I Tony x 28



Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 17


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 47 NM, estimated altitude 41,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 37
A6M5 Zero x 238
J2M3 Jack x 25
N1K1-J George x 122
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 20
Ki-100-I Tony x 27



Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 18


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 33 NM, estimated altitude 41,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 30
A6M5 Zero x 198
J2M3 Jack x 20
N1K1-J George x 97
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 16
Ki-100-I Tony x 23



Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 18


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 23
A6M5 Zero x 168
J2M3 Jack x 16
N1K1-J George x 84
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 14
Ki-100-I Tony x 18



Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 259
F4U-1A Corsair x 70
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 56


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
F4U-1A Corsair: 3 destroyed
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged



Ki-83 factory hits 11
Ki-83 factory hits 29
Ki-83 factory hits 19

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Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 36 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 18
A6M5 Zero x 128
J2M3 Jack x 15
N1K1-J George x 74
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 13
Ki-100-I Tony x 17



Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 25


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 2 destroyed, 17 damaged




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Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 7 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 9
A6M5 Zero x 96
J2M3 Jack x 12
N1K1-J George x 64
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 11
Ki-100-I Tony x 13



Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 9


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged



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Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 26 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 9
A6M5 Zero x 95
J2M3 Jack x 11
N1K1-J George x 62
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 11
Ki-100-I Tony x 12



Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 8


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 3 destroyed, 2 damaged


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 8
A6M5 Zero x 90
J2M3 Jack x 11
N1K1-J George x 60
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 11
Ki-100-I Tony x 11



Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 9


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 21 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 4
A6M5 Zero x 80
J2M3 Jack x 8
N1K1-J George x 57
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 9
Ki-100-I Tony x 9



Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 11


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 41,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 4
A6M5 Zero x 76
J2M3 Jack x 8
N1K1-J George x 50
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 8
Ki-100-I Tony x 8



Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 169 the bulk of my fighters arrived when the party was over [:@]

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M5 Zero: 7 destroyed
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 3
A6M5 Zero x 51
J2M3 Jack x 5
N1K1-J George x 43
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 6
Ki-100-I Tony x 4



Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 8


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Akita , at 117,55

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 16
B-25D1 Mitchell x 12
B-25G Mitchell x 16
F4U-1 Corsair x 36
F6F-3 Hellcat x 34
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 30


No Allied losses



Refinery hits 2


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Akita , at 117,55

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-25D1 Mitchell x 16
B-25G Mitchell x 12
B-25H Mitchell x 12
F4U-1 Corsair x 14
PBJ-1D Mitchell x 15


Allied aircraft losses
B-25G Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25H Mitchell: 1 damaged



Refinery hits 6

[GreyJoy]

.

[JohnDillworth]

Might be some coordination issues but 300+ bombers arriving at the same time is nothing to sneeze at. This was a good day. Once the B-29's come on line you will be able to do this each and every day Nice shootin!

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Might be some coordination issues but 300+ bombers arriving at the same time is nothing to sneeze at. This was a good day. Once the B-29's come on line you will be able to do this each and every day Nice shootin!

It's not the bombers...it's the fighter coordination that bothers me....

Oh well...doesn't really matter....Rader seems to be having far bigger problems than mine[:D][:D][:D][:D]

[GreyJoy]

The KI-83 is the most terrible of the next generation of jap fighter (can go faster than any allied fighter, can go higher and has 30mm cannons...)....it's a must to wipe them out before the Rader's aviation engineers (which are plain genius) will be able to accelerate it and get into production in mid 44 (scheldued to arrive in 11/44)

[JohnDillworth]

It's not the bombers...it's the fighter coordination that bothers me....

I don't know when but you eventually get 75 plane P-51 and maybe P-47 squadrons. That should help but it looks like you are muddling through just fine. I'm a bit surprised at the low fighter losses actually. But I guess the escorts are doing their job. Keeping the fighters off the bombers. BTW, those operational losses you see on bombers include ones that are hit by flak, make it home, but the plane is a write off. At least you get to keep the crew.