The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[BillBrown]

I think it will come down to who blinks first.

[HansBolter]

There has been a bit of musing over bombardment target selection seeming to always go after the airfields while leaving the troops alone.

I knew I had seen examples of the opposite, but had no ready reference.

Just discover this in the "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" AAR compliments of Lord Mandrake-San:

Two more BB attack Brisbane. Again miss arr of airpranes.

Night Naval bombardment of Brisbane at 96,160 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

16 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
BB Yamashiro, Shell hits 6
BB Nagato
DD Akebono
DD Kasumi

Allied ground losses:
348 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled

E8N2 Dave acting as spotter for BB Yamashiro
BB Yamashiro firing at Brisbane Fortress
Brisbane Fortress firing at BB Yamashiro
F1M2 Pete acting as spotter for BB Nagato
BB Nagato firing at 5th Australian Division
DD Akebono firing at 5th Australian Division
DD Kasumi firing at 5th Australian Division

Hitting troops instead of airfields.

Just no way to predict or control target selection.

[Canoerebel]

2/28/43

He was beginning to heal. The wounds had closed. The weakness wasn't quite so overpowering. And with the roast dog, his hunger had abated. Outside, beyond the sand bar, beyond the river, and beyond the narrow band of willow that lined its banks, enemies lurked.

Battle of Sumatra: February came in snarling like a wild dog but went out with a wimper. It's just a momentary respite, of course. No enemy air attacks or bombardments against Sabang (the BBs shouldn't be back for a few more days). Some bombing at Langsa but it remains ineffective.

There is (1) a merchant/troop/something convoy north of Sinabang. The only possible target given its position is Sabang, yet this doesn't have the feel of a massed invasion. The map isn't lit up with a cluster of TFs and the KB, whose two divisions have joined, is to the west in the vicinity of (2) another TF of some sort - NavSearch shows (2) consists of APDs and xAKs and the like. SigInt a few days back listed a unit prepping for Diego Garcia. It's hard to imagine John would move the KB out there at this decisive moment. I think Diego has something like 120 or 160 AV behind six forts with some coastal guns. It isn't impregnable, but it has some teeth.

So I'll keep my eyes on these anomalous merchant TFs and on the KB's location while awaiting the dreaded return of the Kongos.

No signs of imminent attack at Langsa and adjacent hex.

So what's John doing?

Battle of Burma: Tojos sweep Akyab and tangle with an equal number of Hurricanes. Damage is about 1:1. SigInt says 18th Div. is prepping for Ramree Island. That base has 120 AV behind three or four forts. The Allies hold the adjacent jungle hex, so Ramree isn't a "hold or die" location.

SoPac: Kiwis reclaimed a vacant Norfolk Island a few days back, losing two xAKs to Noumea Nells in the process.

SWPac: Peanut 1, Peanut 2 and Peanut 3 on track.

[Lecivius]

He can't seriously be thinking on a direct invasion of Sabang. DG would fit his style of cutting you off, but I doubt he would jump that far with you in your current position. It could also be moving troops close in for an uncontested landing, and then marching on Sabang. Does he have the town on that coast line (I can't remember the name) he can march from? It would also allow his a supply line for any siege.

Actually, an unencumbered map view of the region would help, if it would not be to much trouble?

[Andav]

I am not sure how many of the bombardment results witpqs posts in his Rumble in the Southwest AAR. He has been bombarding at last twice a turn somewhere for the last 6 months (or more) of game turns. The last turn, he bombarded one island (the one SE of Okinawa a couple of hexes) with I think 5 different TFs before he invaded. Some hit the airfield and some hit the troops. Everything was squished in the end.

Eventually, John will have some go after troops and then the he will be in deep cow pucky when the airfield is allowed to heal and he has to start all over.

Wa

[Bullwinkle58]

Is he nuts enough to land in a non-base hex on the gray road on the western side of Sumatra and try an overland attack to avoid the mines?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Is he nuts enough to land in a non-base hex on the gray road on the western side of Sumatra and try an overland attack to avoid the mines?

We are talking John here.[:D]
[:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]

What hasn't he done?

On reflection, that would be pretty rough, just think of the losses for no prep. Ugh.

[Canoerebel]

We have a house rule prohibiting invasion of non-base hexes.

He does have Sibolga on the west side of Sabang. Sibolga isn't fully connected to Sabang by yellow road - there's a gap. So I'm assuming supply might be a problem. More importantly, time would be working against him. Regular readers will recall that I've had plenty of SigInt that 19th Div. was prepping for Sabang and was inbound to Sibolga. So I'm expecting an overland campaign. There is a USA RCT rebuilding on that road. It currently has 30 AV, but probably will have in excess of 50 by the time 19th Div. could arrive. That's jungle terrain and if 19th Div. has supply problems, the roadblock would be that much stiffer.

On the east side of Sumatra, the Allies do hold Langsa, about five hexes down from Sabang and connected by good road and RR. Regular readers know that this hex is garrisoned well but also has a big Allied stack in the hex to the south, with a rotating march system in place to make sure reinforcements can reach Langsa pronto in the event of an invasion.

Attacking up the west side isn't a viable strategy. Too long and probable supply problems. So John has three options now: invade Sabang, invade Langsa, or force his way through the big blocking force just south of Langsa.

I'll post a map in a bit. Regular readers (hey, you know who you are) know I'm having trouble making maps with this new wider screen monitor - everything turn's out tiny. But I'll try.

[Canoerebel]

Sumatra at the end of February.

[Canoerebel]

Just testing to see if this looks any better....

[BillBrown]

You have a TF listed that you think is going to Sabang. Why? I would think it is heading to Great Nicobar, probably carrying an Air HQ, and a BF. Maybe more. That would give him even more Torp carrying aircraft near to Sabang.

[Canoerebel]

Anything heading to the Nicobars or Burma would come up the Malacca Strait - safer. This TF is coming from the outside. This is different than anything John's done thus far - he's always gone inside or from Tavoy or Rangoon for missions to the Nicobars.

[Lecivius]

He does seem to be way out there. I would hazard the inside troop transport group going to the Nicobars, probably with some base troops initially scheduled for Java. That would be consistent with a plan to encircle & cut you off, freeing KB. That outside group is to far out to be involved with Sabang. The next turn will be interesting.

You would hope, with the house rules in place, he is coming up the west coast. That takes time. Time he simply does not have.

[Canoerebel]

John's current body language suggests that nothing major is brewing for the short term, so you guys might be right.

But it's odd that he would choose this route to the Nicobars. Since Sumatra is oriented north south, choosing the interior, lower risk straits would essentially always be preferable. The only exception would be if he picked up a bunch of troops from Sibolga or Padang, which is possible.

One possibility could be that he's offering bait in hopes of drawing combat ships.

[vaned74]

Seldom post, but I always enjoy reading your AAR. Just some random musings that might be worth exploring.

1. I thought (and it has been a while since I have tested / looked at it) that one of the value propositions of CD units was that bombarding ships tended to concentrate more on them. Can you bring in one of the Indian Cst Arty units with the 6" CD guns? Perhaps they have the range to engage his ships and thus draw some fire. I recall there being 2 or 3 of them available.

2. I like the RCT as the tripwire on the west side of the island. I doubt a long walk up the west side of the island would not encounter major supply difficulties for John, especially in the force required. However, it could be a good flanking maneuver. Even if he lost a lot of supply in movement, etc he is probably thinking he will capture a bunch from you at Sabang in the end so it would even out.

3. It seems to me that you need some more ground troops as if you have to watch the landing sites at Langsa, Sabang, and the overland routes on both sides of the island you are short reserves. I suspect if you could get another division or two into Sumatra you would really be secure on the ground with good reserves to respond to any thrust and protect your bases against invasion.

4. It looks to me like you really just need to hold on for about 4 more months. By mid-43 you should have a good crop of Hellcats available and some new carriers. At this point, you can use your carriers to draw his LBA on his island bases to attack you and get shredded by your CAP. With your CVs you can always pick an axis of approach to enable attacks from at most one or two of his bases at a time that he is building up to "air blockade" Sabang. With AF levels not likely exceeding 4-6 and with a half dozen fleet CVs and radar equipped ships, you should tear up his attacks at this point.

5. The above would force him to commit KB to maintain his blockade of Sabang which is good for you in other theaters. However, the key of course is making sure you are secure against defeat on the land. This means (1) troops in sufficient quantity / quality with reserves and (2) supply.

6. Have you considered the following:
a. Flying in fresh troops from Ramree. A couple of squadrons of PBYs should be able to airlift 200-300 troops per day into Sabang. In 60 days this is about a division. This would give you at least a true mobile reserve that you could commit w/o having to denude potential landing sites of cover.

b. You could get some heavier stuff in (especially the CDs) via ships like Abdiel if you still have her. Speed around 35-40 knots and a good cargo capacity for fast transport. Run her in at full speed with do not unload / auto disband. Unload her / auto disband next day. And then run her out to a waiting AO/merchant to refuel.

c. Same could perhaps be done with some APDs, SST (if you have one), lone AKLs when KB is away to get some regular supplies in. Remembering that even a few trips per month over 3-4 months could amount to an additional 1-3K supplies.

d. If you could bring in some additional CDs beyond Sabang to protect your troops on the coast that would help.

e. I think you can airlift in AA up to at least 40mm if I recall, a few additional AA units would force John to focus his BBs/CAs to disrupt you - and as you have correctly identified friction is your friend. A torpedo there and a mine here will do wonders over time.

f. Speaking of mines - have you considered using a sub or two to drop a minefield on the approach hexes to Sabang - eg not in Sabang itself, but, one or two hexes away. The field will decay relatively fast, but, you should have plenty of mines as the Allies and little use for them generally now that the offensive period for Japan has passed. A fresh undetected field may surprise him and a hit on the way in for a bombardment run may spoil a whole run.

Exciting stuff. Enjoying following the action.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Vaned. Lots of good thoughts.
1. No CD units I Sumatra.
2. The RCT AV is up to 34. Still no sign of the enemy approaching.
3. I have about six divisions (four, maybe five USA, one Brit, one Indian) in Sumatra (plus arty, combat engineers, tanks). That's enough at the moment, I think. Most of these units are gaining in strength as they recover from combat disruption and/or losses. Nothing else in theater is readily available and PP limits what I can do (three months ago, the Allies had spent all available PP to buy the units that went into such a massive invasion.)
4. Yeah, four months would probably do it. The problem should really complicate for John in about six weeks.
5. Making John keep the KB in theater to impose the blockade is important to me.
6. I have APDs and SSTs to help with supply and troop movements. I've pretty much maxed out mines for now, but do have subs drop them on occasion.

[Canoerebel]

03/01/43

The time had come to move. But where? He could find the main trail and walk back towards St. Charles, in hopes of coming across another train. But the main trail would be dangerous with the Comanchee on the war path. It might be better to find a hideout overlooking the trail and wait for a wagon train or a troop of cavalry.

Battle of Sumatra: BillBrown was right - that TF moved on to one of the Nicobars. At least one division of the KB remains in place. I've lost sight of that merchant TF that was out by the KB. Patrols are picking up lots of enemy TFs in the Malacca Strait, which I think is the vector of greatest danger. I also heard the "Send main body" announcement. The Kongos will return next turn if they follow the same cycle as last time (three days). Most of the troops have recovered from the last bombardment. The airfield remains in bad shape. There's a smidgeon of hope that John won't come back (either because he might elect a blockade strategy instead of a conquest strategy, or because he's concerned about the risk to his BBs), but I think it's far more likely that he will. If so, it will be interesting to see how much damage three BBs do (assuming Kirishima is out of action after taking the TT). Supply looks fine. A lot of the surviving fighters are gone now.

No sign of imminent enemy movement against Langsa or the hex to the south (or towards the yellow road on the island's west side). I really thought John was about to come. I think he pretty much has to. But his body language (lethargy of AAR and in flipping turns) suggests otherwise. He's busy with his game with Herbie, but he'd be jazzed if something major was in the offing in this game. That's encouraging.

SWPac: A sub hit a tanker south of Rabaul.

[BBfanboy]

vaned74: b. You could get some heavier stuff in (especially the CDs) via ships like Abdiel if you still have her. Speed around 35-40 knots and a good cargo capacity for fast transport. Run her in at full speed with do not unload / auto disband.

A ship with any troops or their equipment aboard cannot disband.

[Canoerebel]

3/2/43

Water was the key. He couldn't hole up in rocks by the wagon trail and wait for a wagon train unless there was water nearby. He had no way to carry it with him. As best he could figure, the trail lay about four miles to the south. Tomorrow, he'd leave before dawn. He'd scout for a likely location to hole up and watch the trail. If there wasn't water there, he'd just have to return to the cave in the bluff by the tributary. This plan seemed cumbersome. He'd need to think it through. Surely there was a better way.

Battle of Sumatra: The Kongos don't return and Sabang is entirely unmolested (except John is maintain sweeps, though they're not finding any CAP). Patrols don't show any combat TFs inbound, but there's so much shipping nearby that danger may be lost in the clutter. The airfield is repairing. If things hold as is, I might send the TBFs back to Sabang on the chance that John doesn't have all these TFs covered by CAP. But it'll be awhile before I can send the fighters back in. They've got to rebuild numbers and the field has to be protected by Allied combat ships or the insertion has to be timed to follow an unusually ineffective bombardment run. So, for the next few days at least, I do nothing more than hunker down and see what John's up to.

Supply at Sabang is at 247k. It's not dropping that fast, but rather more is shifting over to Langsa, which is now up to 10k. I'll have to see if I can address that - I'd like Langsa to have around 3k or 4k to handle local needs, but not build up enough to draw from Sabang.

Mines as Sabang dropped from 951 to 949 over the past few days. The mines have never decreased unless hit by an enemy vessel (since there are ACMs in port). I never heard "vessel-hitting-mines sounds in the past few turns. This is a mystery. I'll watch the mine numbers more closely every turn now and scour combat report for damage to enemy vessels whenever the number drops.

No sign of a looming invasion at Sabang or Langsa. And still no sign of an overland campaign.

KB is still posted west of Sabang in strength. John is using his strike aircraft and some patrol boats to try to address the pack of Allied subs near Sabang.

[HansBolter]

If Langsa doesn't need more than 3k-4k then the way to limit it to that is to set it's draw to 1k to 1.5k while setting Sabang to max draw.

Bases always try to draw in three times the draw setting. This will prevent Langsa from pulling more away form Sabang, because Langsa won't want more and Sabang won't let any more go.

Only risk might be that the max draw setting at Sabang will pull supply away form Langsa.