Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

The plan is to shock attack across the river against the coastal city (Yinkgkow?). The Allies army should seriously outnumber the Jap army, partly because it's open terrain and Erik will be leery of Allied bombers. I'm pretty sure he'll conclude that anything he put in that hex will be destroyed or battered.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The plan is to shock attack across the river against the coastal city (Yinkgkow?). The Allies army should seriously outnumber the Jap army, partly because it's open terrain and Erik will be leery of Allied bombers. I'm pretty sure he'll conclude that anything he put in that hex will be destroyed or battered.

Direct approach is good too - saves time. Sounds like you are confident you have enough to overcome the river-crossing malus.

[Canoerebel]

It would be a huge gamble for Erik that I don't think he'd be willing to take. He knows (or will soon) that the Russian army is gigantic. It'll be open terrain subject to massed Allied air raids. His units lack AA (I think, because he put all his AA into the Home Islands). My units do have massed AA. So he'd be risking a decisive defeat. I just don't think he'd entertain that possibility. I'll know more as the Russian army advances over the next five turns or so.

[RangerJoe]

Why use finesse when you can bludgeon? As long as you do not lose too much doing so.

[Canoerebel]

8/29/45

Singapore: Japanese units at Singers appear to be shedding AV now. 33rd Div. is down from 420 to 338 in about four days. Overall, the enemy garrison has dropped from 1900+ AV to 1632 AV. The Allied bombers were particularly effective today, having dropped from 11k to 7k on the belief that enemy supply is low or bingo so that no AA is available. Tomorrow, a BB TF will bombard, the bombers will bomb, arty will bombard, and armor will deliberate attack. If things don't go wonky, a general deliberate attack will take place on the 31st or 1st (depending on how soon units advancing from Johore arrive). All signs point to an enemy garrison ready to fall within a few weeks.

[Canoerebel]

8/30/45

Singapore: Limited attack by armor again drops enemy forts despite low odds. The Japanese garrison is weary and low/bingo on supply. Adjusted AV now showing at about 2570. Tomorrow, several Allied divisions will arrive boosting raw Allied AV to about 5,900. The Allies might try a general deliberate attack the day after. Barring the unexpected, Singers is going to fall in less than two weeks, I believe.

Formosa: Reinforcing landings to take place at Karenko tomorrow. The Allies will put roughly 2-4 divisions ashore over the coming week. Enemy garrisons across the island are fairly stout. But with naval and air superiority likely it should be manageable.

Russia: Massive Russian stack opened advance by destroying two weak Japanese units near Yengkow. Next step is to cross the river and attack the coastal city in open terrain. I don't expect Erik to stand in the open but we'll see. Russian AV should be around 12,000 to 13,000.

[Crackaces]

Since victory is based on a ratio of points (2:1) [Rather than a game where victory is a threshold] -- each point deducted from the denominator represents two potential points needed in the numerator to achieve eventually 2:1.. Each base you take away from the LYB's subtracts from the denominator in this equation (along with adding to the numerator). It might be interesting to understand for the reader the strategy in total given losses (which I am thinking will be a wash? Maybe more points than the IJ?) the value of Singapore.

[Canoerebel]

The VP value of Singers should be a major haul for the Allies, both for base value and troop value. My guys have engaged in only one general attack (and the armor in two limited attacks) with light losses. The Japanese garrison has weakened under sustained bombing and arty bombardments for a couple of months. I believe the enemy collapse will be sudden and Allied losses relatively light.

Significantly, the Allies' 8k AV will then be free to move up to China.

[RangerJoe]

Too bad that you don't have Chinese forces at Singapore to take the losses since, relatively speaking, the Japanese get the fewest VPs from them.

[Canoerebel]

A big Chinese corps (900+ AV) is at Johore and will reach Singers in about three days. It'll be in for the kill, for the reasons you mention. There is a chance, however, that it's weak squads will take heavy casualties that will neutralize the advantage of their low value.

[Canoerebel]

I think Erik likes to play with Reserve vs. Combat modes a lot. He'll do it with AA units, hoping to lure Allied bombers to a lower altitude. He does it with CD/Arty forces at beachheads to let Allied combat vessels use up ammo on a D-Day, only to face fierce fire (with no ability to counter fire) on D+1.

Here, I'm wondering if he's used Reserve mode to preserve his units. But I think his options are limited due to lack of supply and the apparent weakness of his garrison. If he did stand down a bunch of his units, he'd take a ery long chance if the Allies chose that turn to attack. So I'm not expecting much chicanery.

[Canoerebel]

9/2/45

"We aint got no bombs. We don't need no stinkin' bombs! The Allies dropped their first atomic bomb on Tokyo on August 14 or thereabouts. Since then, the B-29B squadron assigned to that mission has had the option grayed out. I figured there was a random variable that would eventually release the second bomb. But when it was still grayed out today, I checked the Industry chart and found that there wasn't another in the stockpile and that production ceased in July 1945!

This is my first game going this late. What am I overlooking/doing wrong? How do I get access to the second bomb?

If I don't get a second, I'll still win the war. But that'll make the meager tally of numero uno (4,000 points) particularly painful.

[USSAmerica]

Dan, that screenshot shows that production starts in July, 1945 with no end (Till) date. You should see roughly 1 per month produced until the game ends.

[RangerJoe]

Nuke'em 'till they glow, then shoot them in the dark because it's easier that way.

or

Nuke'em 'till they are glass, then polish them with windex.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

Dan, that screenshot shows that production starts in July, 1945 with no end (Till) date. You should see roughly 1 per month produced until the game ends.

Yer right, Mike. Thank you.

I blame my misinterpretation of the chart on my UTI (Chickenboy will want to know that).

[Canoerebel]

p.s. Erik disappeared on vacation or some such. We've only done two turns in the last 12 days or so. They've been impactful, busy turns. I think the Allied plan is unfolding and snowballing. Erik has to strike soon. I'll post a more detailed account of those two days when I feel better.

[Canoerebel]

8/31/43 and 9/1/43

Singapore: Allied general assault, the second ever, comes off at 3:1, drops forts to three, and results in disproportionate Japanese destruction (though Allied infantry takes meaningful disablements). The fortress is ripe for the fall. The infantry will need about four days to rest, even as important reinforcements arrive. But the armor as untouched by the attack and will try another tomorrow. I think there's a good chance forts will drop to 2 and that the next general assault - possibly on the 5th - will do the trick.

[Canoerebel]

8/31/45 to 9/1/45

DEI: The DEI is wide open. When Singers falls, the pared-down Allied army in the DEI will handle the conquest of the remaining territory, which is essentially undefended. There is, of course, always the threat of clever enemy ambushes by sea or air.

[Canoerebel]

8/31/45 and 9/1/45

Formosa/Luzon: Allies take Karenko, Formosa, giving position from which to launch campaign for complete conquest, when time is ripe (China/Korea have first dibs on all assets until their fate is sealed). DS about to make quick trip to Manila to escort assault shipping for retrieval of Allied army there.

[Canoerebel]

8/31/45 and 9/1/45

China: The Western Allied advance has been quick against light opposition, cutting the railroad and dividing enemy resistance into two pockets: North and West. Half of the Allied army present is sufficient to team up with the Soviets to address the North. The balance will turn on the powerful, vast West army (but how is supply in places like Sian and Chungking)?

That 7k Allied AV inbound from Singapore in two weeks? It'll disembark and immediately move on Chungking.