Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

9/4/45

China, Manchuria, Korea: Here's where the war must be won. And the ground war is off to a most promising start.

[Canoerebel]

9/7/45 to 9/10/45

Asia: The Allied juggernaut is rolling now. The Russians are about to push into Korea in overpowering numbers. The Western allies have two armies, one pushing on Peiping from the southwest and the other pushing towards Sian. Erik, who never fights on unfavorable terms, has begun fighting on unfavorable terms.

The Allied army from Singers is en route. The massive Allied air force from Singers is already in northern Indochina, resting a turn or two before contributing.

The Allied army from Luzon will come ashore at Nanking in about three days. It'll move either on Shanghai or on Sian/Chungking.

Erik has pulled his navy from the DEI, leaving it basically vacant. An Allied carrier force escorting invasion troops will reach Allied held Semerang in two or three turns.

Allied fighters and bombers have started striking all over. Today, a massive 4EB strike wiped out the remaining industry at Hirosaki/Aomori. When DS arrives in two days, it'll spend the rest of the war contributing sweeps to strat bombing missions and also hunting valuable enemy shipping.

Allied lead is 21k, exactly 25% of the way to auto victory. The points are beginning to snowball in now. Where I once thought he war would go into '46, now there is little doubt it'll end in '45. The real question is, How soon?

Erik hasn't done anything offensive in many, many months. The game must be a complete drudgery for him. He'll turn and fight (as he's beginning to do even now). I'll do everything possible to keep him fighting on the most unfavorable terms possible.

[RangerJoe]

Once you have clear rail and grey road lines from Southeast Asia, supply should flow nicely to where it is needed although it might take awhile. The best part is that you will only have to protect against subs. Also, with the Aleutians and the Kuriles, you can ship supplies from the West Coast to the USSR. There you would have to protect against CVTFs, SCTFs, and subs. Of course, Japan might not try to seriously disrupt the supply lines because of the fuel situation.

As far as the situation on China and Korea, why use a little hammer if you have a big one? I think that these ongoing operations should be called "Crunch N' Munch!"

[Canoerebel]

Transport TFs have been moving from the West Coast and Aleutians to Russia since activation on August 1. Shikuka has 5 million supply, so cargo TFs are toting supply to Russia from there, too. The massive Russian army seems well supplied at the moment. And, in less than a week, there should be good supply conduits from Western China into Manchuria, and the Allies have more than 2 million supply at Tungchow, with more about to arrive with DS.

So the final puzzle piece will be opening the road from Indochina. That isn't necessary but it will be icing on the cake.

Due to Erik's reluctance to take chances, the only vector that requires escorts are those coming from the South China Sea past Formosa to Tungchow. Erik hasn't sniffed the northern route (from the Aluetians in more than a year). He may elect to do so, but the Allies have picket ships, subs and patrols watching.

The Allies basically annihilate enemy subs during the Shikuka Siege. Erik has a few left but they aren't going to be a factor interdicting supply.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies used their first atomic bomb on August 14. The second still isn't available. What's the deal?

[RangerJoe]

Gary Grigsby and random numbers . . .

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Allies used their first atomic bomb on August 14. The second still isn't available. What's the deal?

the ship delivering it sank. [:D]

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Gary Grigsby and random numbers . . .

This.

The random effect swings both ways making it not only possible to lose your 1 bomb per month production, but also gain an extra 1 in any given month.

I used one as soon as it was available and then held off using any more. By December I had 6 bombs in my inventory.

[Canoerebel]

9/11/45 and 9/12/45

Korea: The Russians are in Korea in big numbers, with vastly bigger numbers about to arrive. It appears (from my perspective) that the flanking caught Erik somewhat by surprise. Suddenly, there are movement dots all over Manchuria and northern Korea. I believe Erik has ordered a total withdrawal and intends to make his stand on a line from Seoul (Keijo) across the peninsula to the Sea of Japan. He'll be able to rail his units in before I can interdict all the rails, but it's doubtful the entire Japanese army can withstand the massive Russian army (plus the Western air forces and navies, if needed).

China: In China, Erik is making a pitch to save Sian or at least slow down the Allied advance. But the Allies got a head start and seem to have the right angle to take the key city. That will allow an approach on Chungking from the NE. It's likely he will fight for Chungking, but that will force him to divide/allocate his forces in China, just as two new Allied armies will be arriving on the front lines (one at Indochina, one at Shanghai).

[RangerJoe]

Bomb all units with movement arrows, especially ones that are not in a base. [:'(]

[Simonsez]

Dave? Erik? DS? KB? I'm so confused....[:D]

Not sure how you can be running two games at the same time and even hope to keep them straight. Either you must write alot of stuff down or you have a talent to keep two similar, but separate trains of thought coexisting in your working memory. The sparse few times you crossed names or small elements in your AAR is remarkable. Keep chugging!

[Canoerebel]

Those are encouraging words. Thanks, Simon. I don't have a hard time keeping the two games straight as I play them, but it's a beastly challenge in writing the AARs. That, combined with my gift for misspelling words, causes me some grief.

[Crackaces]

If I am reading your map right .. the IJ risks arriving at Keijo by rail at the same time your armor arrives there? If they do not have time to change ops mode ..this could be a disaster. .. I caught the IJ one time near Rangoon and the causalities were around 12,000 out of 20,000 .. The IJ have to be at least thinking this is a risk?

[Canoerebel]

That was a possibility but it turned out Erik was intent on getting troops out of Keijo rather than inserting them to create a roadblock. My troops attacked once. Most of them rested a day due to supply, but some self-propelled guns attacked and did good damage but discovered that most of the enemy army was gone.

[pontiouspilot]

Maybe he is prepared to offer you reasonable surrender terms....remember the Black Knight!

[Canoerebel]

I hope not, and I think not.

I'm still 60k points from victory, so Erik has plenty to fight for. The situation is dire for Japan, but it's September '45!

[RangerJoe]

. . . That, combined with my gift for misspelling words, causes me some grief.

You just have unique spelling, although not as unique as Greyjoy's . . .

You do a good job writing your AARS! [&o]

[Gridley380]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

You do a good job writing your AARS!

I agree! Don't sweat the occasional mistake.

Edit: I misspelled "occasional" in my original post... :-}

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, gents. I make a lot of mistakes, so your patience and encouragement is appreciated. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

9/18/45

The Allied offensives are now fully mature, with strong offensives underway in Korea and China, a sizeable mop-up operation in Java, and major reinforcements bound for Formosa. The Allied air forces are escalating activities, mainly trying to pick on isolated groups of enemy fighters, with decent success. The Japanese navy has been utterly quiet throughout 1945, but the Japanese air force is still mostly a 1:1 beast. Until the Allies have big airfields in southern Korea, I can't really engage in sustained strategic bombing. But that day may not be far away.

Korea: The Russian army has reached Keijo in strength, having outflanked the Japanese and having fought just one engagement that would be called a battle. That was at Yingkow and was a serious mismatch in which the Russians had a 10x advantage or better. The campaign for Keijo should be tough, but the Russian army is mammoth-ness on a scale I've never seen before, so there's reason for optimism.

Northern China: The Japanese have but two bases left - Peiping held in strength and Tientsin held relatively weakly. The Russians and Western Allies are going to leave a holding force at the former while attending to the latter. I don't think that will take long. Once either base is taken, I'll have rail available from Nanking to Keijo.

Middle China: The Western Allies are advancing in strength on Sian. Dave has a bit more than I expected but not enough to hold long. Nor does he seem to have reserves coming forward.

Coastal China: The Allies are just now isolating Shanghai. They may need more to reduce the fortress, but it'll get regular treatment until then.

Formosa: Large army loading to reinforce the smaller army currently at Karenko. I think this'll be enough to handle the island over the next six weeks or so.

DEI: Decent Allied army ashore on Java, which has no strong garrisons.