Aussie Affair III - This time its personal!

[Raverdave]

If I were a betting man I would say that Luskan is planning his next major assualt, and it will land right on the Marshall Islands.   He HAS to attack here as he cannot afford to let me continue increasing my strength here.  I'm thinking that as soon as he has rested his troops at Singers then they will be loaded and shipped to Truk, which is the logical staging base in the area.
Wotje would be the first target that he should hit, followed by Tawara and then Meloelap.  But the really SMART think to do would be to hit Baker Island.  It is here that my allied forces are supporting the other three Islands from.  IF Baker falls then the other three Islands would wither on the vine. 
Also by attacking in the Marshalls, Luskan would force me to defend with my CV's which any jap player worth his salt would be looking to hunt and destroy sooner rather than later.
Having already thought through the above what can I as the allied player do?  Well for starters as soon as wonder boy starts his attack I will know WHERE kb is...I will allow the defenders of the Marshalls to fight with little support, as they are VERY well stocked and will defeat anything that the boy wonder can throw at them (LOTS of CDs units as well as mines are now in place as well as reserve aircraft that are currently resting at Baker Is)..then I will launch a new invasion in one of three places somewhere on the map that ratbrain will have to counter.  He will then have a choice of continuing to follow thru with his attack, or turn and face the new threat that I have created with my new invasion. I don't believe that Luskan has the strategic ability to fight on two "new" fronts.

[JeffroK]

I'd leave the Gilberts and take Johnston Is, makes it a long swim back to Pearl...

[qgaliana]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

ORIGINAL: qgaliana

This pretty interesting. But I'm not sure how well the allies can sustain major losses through 1942. It seems to me the Japanese can still wrap up the SRA and then dispose of the Gilberts more or less at their leisure.

"Leisure" is a rare commodity for the Japanese Empire. Time is almost always on the side of the Allies, especially when it comes to air combat. (And I wouldn't be surprised if minelaying was going on, too. ) The fact that Raver now has three bases within airstrike range of each other makes it a thorny problem for Luskan, which will only get worse when longer-range aircraft such as Lightnings come online.

Leisure is relative to be sure. But he could have a good six months to pick the place apart (as Raver points out isolating first vs assault). And it gives him more favourable ground for the 'decisive battle' than some isolated US attol in the south or central pacific.

That decisive battle isn't going to give him the war but my impression so far was that US reinforcements won't replace any major losses (say a hundred or more transports and a few divisions) before late 43 or even 44. Even against the AI I've emptied the west coast of shipping just stocking supply and very slowly moving troops through 1942. Luskan has an opportunity to give himself 6-12 very quiet months of no attrition and lots of digging in through the middle of the war.

On the other hand it's war - Raver might be able to bleed him and distract him to the point an opening will come up elsewhere. Raver has picked the ground for sure. But I'm not sure if it will speed allied victory.

very interesting AAR thanks gents.

[Raverdave]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I'd leave the Gilberts and take Johnston Is, makes it a long swim back to Pearl...

Nah Johnston is to close to PH for Luskan to risk. Mind you I'd be very pleased if he did try it on. I know Luskan too well......he will try sumfink off the wall to...... his reputation demands it as one of the better IJN players on this site.

[JeffroK]

So either Hobart or Christmas Island is in trouble...
 
(The one in the Indian Ocean!!)

[Luskan]

Well, things are certainly quiet.  When you've got thousands (ok, hundreds) of betties and nells, isolating the Gilberts and Marshalls isn't that big an ask.  But you don't want to use them for bombing - you want your sallies and helens to do that for you.
 
At present, my sallies are tied up with a carpet bombing campaign in the Phillipines.  until Manila and Clark and bataan fall . . . well we're still in chapter 1.  Don't make it to chapter 2 until I control the SRA and the dozen divisions I've got tied up become free again.
 
Colossal fatigue and disruption in my present army, but few fatalities so far.  There is a possibility of the China offensive (with divisions from the SRA) . . . would secure my mainland side a lot more.  Certainly Raver has lost more Chinese troops (wiped out - as in surrendered) in this game than any other.  I'll crush another 6 or so cut off units deep behind my lines in the next week or two and remove them from the OOB too. 
 
Economically things are really stong - I've slowed my economy a little to make more room for resource and oil buildup :Jap players, on turn 3, your TKs should be at Brunei, Tarakan, Balikpapan and Ambiona, and your AKs at Kendari, Tarakan and Toobali loading oil and resources for the motherland.  I didn't loose a single one to allied activity, and meant that by week two I'd replaced all those resource and oil points that I'd "spent" expanding factories, repair yards and realloacting airframe and engine production.  Singapore harbour is already a major repair port (makes Hong Kong look backward) and still growing (lots of supply - every time I land supply at Hong Kong my Chinese bases suck it all up).
 
 

[Yakface]

"I'll crush another 6 or so cut off units deep behind my lines in the next week or two and remove them from the OOB too."
 
I was under the impression that the only way to eliminate chinese units permanently was to casuse them to starve to death.  I'd be interested to know if this is incorrect? 

[castor troy]

surrendered or destroyed Chinese units should again arrive at Chungking at 1/3 strength.

[Raverdave]

ORIGINAL: Luskan

Well, things are certainly quiet.  When you've got thousands (ok, hundreds) of betties and nells, isolating the Gilberts and Marshalls isn't that big an ask. 

Well I would be giving your flight crews a big kick up the arse mate......I have thousands of tons of supplies flowing into the Marshalls and have yet to see a single jap bomber.[:D]

[BrucePowers]

So, things are going well, Raver?[:)]

[Raverdave]

Yes indeed mate, things are going very well.  I can see that things might start to get nasty in Burma now that Singers has fallen.  The Pi can not hold out much more than a few days.  Could even hold out for a week or so and that will release another  hundred thousand jap troops which I suspect will be used to start strengthing his line.  I can't see the boy wonder doing any really big operations as we race towords the middle of '42.

[Raverdave]

Little to report.....things are vwery vwery qwiet.

[Capt. Harlock]

ORIGINAL: Raverdave

Little to report.....things are vwery vwery qwiet.

That's actually rather strange. Luskan must be aware that time is not on his side. The PI still needs pacifying, and your new island bases must be getting stronger by the day.

[Raverdave]

Agreed.......The PI is on it's last legs......a couple of shock attacks will bring the entire place down, but Luskan seems a bit gun shy.   The Marshalls will now cost him dearly if he want's them back.[:D]

[Oliver Heindorf]

Luskan coward or what ?
[:'(]

[Luskan]

Must be [;)]

[MineSweeper]

Come on Luskan, I look forward to reading this AAR[:)]...you can kick some serious butt regarding this minor hicup[;)]....KB rules the seas[:-]

[Raverdave]

Well as far as KB ruling the sea......little has been seen of the IJN Deathstar of late.  I much prefer to see them bombing ships and ports because it is easier to keep track of where they are.  It is much more unnerving NOT knowing where they are.

[Luskan]

Well they arent sitting still and that is all I'll say.
 
Things are quiet (and life is interfering with the speed of our gameplay for the moment) however I'm confident that the PI is soon going to be all mine (yes, I know "soon" is a relative term).  Not sure what exactly to do in the Marshalls, but I've got some plans - which unfortunately are contigent upon Raver's next move.  If it is where I'm predicting/hoping, then I'll solve my little problem in the islands and be back on top of things before you can say "I thought I heard a banana!".
 
If Raver doesn't do what I'm hoping then the troops earmarked for my counter offensive will be used to strengthen my line. 
 
Must admit - I'm disappointed with the lack of sunk transport shipping.

[Capt. Harlock]

ORIGINAL: Luskan


Must admit - I'm disappointed with the lack of sunk transport shipping.

IMHO you sank quite enough of it during Raver's initial assaults!