The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

For the past nine months, the sea war has been continuous, beginning with the Battles of Assam (Ramree Island and Akyab) and continuing with the long series of engagements following the November 10 invasion of Sumatra). Uninterupted fighting has taken a toll on combat ships.

Ships Lost

CV: Allies 1 (CVE Prince William); Japan ? (maybe CV Hiyo)
BB: Allies 7 (Repulse, PoW, Indiana, 4 slow); Japan ? (maybe four)
CA: Allies 16; Japan 9
CL: Allies 23; Japan 14
CLAA: Allies 1; Japan 0
DD: Allies 84 (of that number, two are worth more than 8 points); Japan 77 (29 are worth 10 points or more)
DE: Allies 1; Japan 0
APD: Allies 2; Japan 2
AP: Allies 50 (three "real" AP, the rest xAP); Japan 21
AK: Allies 432 (this includes xAKL; only six are real "AK"); Japan 220 (includes xAKL)
AO: Allies 21; Japan 7
TK: Allies 25; Japan 11
SS: Allies 22; Japan 17

[Canoerebel]

Here's what the Allies have on the board to fight with (parenthetical numbers are what's coming in the next 90 days):

CV: 7 (1)
CVL: 1 (2)
CVE: 7 (5)
BB: 16 - four of the "fast" (0)
CA: 9 (1)
CL: 8 (1)
CLAA: 10 (0)
DD: 82 (21) - Note: Allied DD production really accelerates in July '43.

These numbers aren't very impressive. I thinkthe Allies match up rather evenly with Japan except in carriers, where Japan likely has a decided advantage.

What do these numbers mean to me? Do they affect whether I can take chances in trying to preserve the Allied lodgement on Sumatra? On whether I should try to send combat ships to Sabang if I get a window and have air cover to protect them? What portion of my force can I afford to keep posted elsewhere, like SWPac?

These are tough questions!

[JeffroK]

A bit far from Kettle Ck (or is Brier Ck close??), I one solid link I have (lots of dodgy ones)in November 1778 became a Volunteer for five months in Captain Enoch Davis'es Company Col. Locks Regiment and fought near Three Sister, Savannah and was discharged after his 5 mths was completed.

Later in the fall of 1780 then living in Randolph County N.C. he was Drafted for three months
and put into Capt. John Johnsons Company Col. Colyers Reg and fought at Briers Ck

[fulcrum28]

only CV hiyo lost in 9 months seems very good.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

A bit far from Kettle Ck (or is Brier Ck close??), I one solid link I have (lots of dodgy ones)in November 1778 became a Volunteer for five months in Captain Enoch Davis'es Company Col. Locks Regiment and fought near Three Sister, Savannah and was discharged after his 5 mths was completed.

Later in the fall of 1780 then living in Randolph County N.C. he was Drafted for three months
and put into Capt. John Johnsons Company Col. Colyers Reg and fought at Briers Ck

Brier Creek was a decisive British victory shortly after the loss at Kettle Creek. Brier Creek is just below Augusta, Georgia, while Kettle Creek is perhaps 50 miles NW of Augusta. So the two were close in time and distance.

I assume your ancestor was a Loyalist? What became of him after the Revolution? Many/most loyalists stayed in America, but there was also a "diaspora" to Canada, the Bahamas, Florida, and other British territory.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: fulcrum28

only CV hiyo lost in 9 months seems very good.

CV Junyo took a couple of torpedoes near Rabaul in the last autumn of '42. She just came off the "Ships Sunk" list a few days ago.

I think the only Allied CV to take damage has been Wasp, which was hit by four bombs from KB strike aircraft and moderately damaged. That was during the closest thing to a carrier battle we've had yet - the Allied carriers "offered battle" south of Ceylon. I thought the KB would "accept," but John was using them to shield troop and supply ships making for Rangoon. He ended up losing 100+ carrier aircraft in the strikes that got Wasp.

How rare is it to have no fleet carrier losses (excepting possibly Hiyo) in a game that's now at mid-March '43? Probably pretty rare, but the course of the game and the fact that both players are veterans explains it. Carriers have been used - I employed them in invasions of the Gilberts (June '42) and Sumatra (November '42 and thereafter), but the latter caught John on the wrong foot, with the KB near Port Moresby. During the big naval battles of Assam (summer and autumn '42), no carriers were really involved in a material way, though the Death Star was in theater in case a need arose.

Death Star is no match for KB for a long time, which is the reason I've only offered battle that one time (I liked many of the intangibles in that particular situation).

[Mike McCreery]

NJP and I are in July of 1944 with no fleet carrier losses. I put that down to my incompetence ;]

[Canoerebel]

The first thing a new Allied player will do is lose his carriers in an engagement. It's nealry impossible not to. After all this is a naval battle game, carriers are fun and pack a punch, and there's that overwhelming urge to follow hunches and strike hard somewhere likely. And then you suffer your first lopsided carrier battle defeat...in early '42...and become acquainted with the terrible feeling of not getting any real replacements for more than a year.

That experience, above all else, will inscribe on the psyche of an Allied player the need to be as patient as possible.

Not every veteran Allied player has experienced this, but many have. I certainly did.

[Canoerebel]

3/14/43

Battle of Sumatra: The Six Sisters (IJN CAs) bombard Sabang. The Kongos should be back day after tomorrow. KB is posted just to the north of Sabang (and I'm glad to have regained her location). Most of the Allied ships isolated in port at Sabang have been sunk now...and only a handful of aircraft remain (most of the airforce is rebuilding now in Ceylon and India).

No signs of imminent amphibious attack or overland campaigning. Supply in Sumatra continues to look good well into the medium term - it should remain adequate into late April, I'm guessing. That should be long enough for the paradigm to have shifted, one way or the other, so that supply is no longer needed (meaning the campaign is over) or that I can get it in (meaning John is in big doo-doo).

SigInt now indicates that 16th Div. and 2nd Tank Div. are aboard marus bound...not for Langsa...but for Sibolga, on Sumatra's west coast. This is the same place that 19th Div. came ashore a week or more back.

John has a variety of ways to configure this attack: (1) do nothing on the ground and just let base building isolate Sabang and then eventually supply will run out [the problem being that it leaves Sabang in Allied hands long term and the paradigm could shift in the meantime, so I don't think John chooses this]; (2) overland campaign beginning with attack on the Allied army a hex south of Langsa (John could have done this starting months ago, so I doubt he decides to do this now; the problem for him is that it's jungle terrain and the Allies have three divisions well entrenched and can call up reinforcements from adjacent Langsa quickly]; (3) coup-de-main invasion of Langa or, more likely, Sabang [to me, this is John's best option of wrapping this up within the near or medium term; I think he'll choose this; I think he'll invade Sabang; my best hope is that he brings something like four divisions and then gets bogged down]; [4] overland campaign up the west side of Sumatra [supply may be an issue due to the broken yellow road; plus, this will take a month or more of marching just to get his troops to Sabang]; or (5) some combination of these.

I do not want to lose Sumatra. I've poured my heart into this invasion. It's been costly. It's been brutal. It's been a blast. It will be humiliating to lose it. But I can afford to lose it. At this point, the most imprtant factor is when I lose it. If I can drag this out another two months, things should get very dicey for John. But two months is a long time to fight against overwhelming enemy opposition (which is why I still shake my head at John sending all those divisions to Burma...and then, after they booted the Allies from the region, sending them even further forward into the jungle).

[vaned74]

Just a quick comment - I would still think you need some more troops in the area to protect the three routes of attack John has (overland west, overland east, amphibious).

Have you thought about the following:
1) change Langsa base to an India HQ. Fly in troops w/o having to pay the PP cost to transfer. This may be prevented by house rules. I doubt if you have 6 versus 7 divisions in your next major invasion will change John's panic at seeing another major operation / but one extra division or two in Sumatra could really fix his attention and pin him down medium-long term.

2) get some CDs / more AA in. Those Indian 6" CDs are great. If you wanted to be "Nemo" like, you could fly in the support squads and then send a xAKL with the guns - the xAKL would get sunk, but then you could fill the unit that was on the ground back up with replacement guns. This would allow you to start putting a few nuisance mines around Sabang again and start the attrition process again. (Note this feels a little icky on the game system, but, at the same time, troops rebuild w/replacements as long as supply is in abundance and your divisions/RCTs on Sumatra are refilling now even though you are completely blockaded in practice.

Exciting to watch. Good luck.

[Canoerebel]

It's too late to bring in anything by sea (such as CD guns). That window closed a month ago (mid February '43).

I can employ PBYs to bring in foot soldiers (but not heavy equipment), but I don't think it's worth it. I have enough to fight with now. More troops means more mouths to feed which means more supply drained.

[Canoerebel]

I should add this: I think a more efficient way of adding troop strength is by rebuilding those infantry units that were beat up during previous engagements. Most of the US divisions and 18th UK division are gaining AV every few turns. Growth like this, from the interior, is my best option. I have turned off replacements for all the support units (except AA) in order to minimize supply drain.

[Canoerebel]

3/15/43

John is flipping turns again. His "body language" suggests that he's energized. This, in turn, likely means something's up. And if something's up it probably means Sumatra.

Battle of Sumatra: A quiet day. Neither the Kongos nor the Six Sisters were due in port, and they obliged. Surprisingly, enemy strike aircraft did not hit Langsa, either. (I transferred my surviving aircraft there and may get a chance to move some of them out tomorrow). No sign of imminent invasion, concnetration of ground troops to hit the hex south of Langsa, or moving up towards the west coast road.

KB is posted NNW of Sabang. Also, patrols are now reporting that the Kongos and the Six Sisters may be using Sinabang to rearm on the bombardment runs. I'm repositioning many of my subs, both to interdict this route and to vector in on the KB.

DD Decoy, the last Allied combat ship at Sabang, will make a break for Ceylon tonight. She can make 26 knots, so her chances are decent. DD Cushing made the sprint about a week ago and survived to tell the tale. She's repairing and upgrading at Colombo.

SWPac: Peanut 1 and Peanut 2 are at 100%. Peanut 3 is at 30%. Lots of supply and fuel coming into Oz. Many of the major support units (HQ, AA, and engineers are in place). Three restricted Aussie divisions are 100% prepped. I just bought an American division and it's loading at Los Angeles to make the trip to Melbourne via Christmas Island, Pago Pago and Auckland. In about two months, the Allies might be in a position to proceed with the invasion of Java, New Guinea and/or Admiralties/New Britian. SigInt and base building continue to show lots of opportunities exist.

SoPac: A small amphibious force is inbound to Vaitupu, which recon shows is vacant. That's too far forward to have good chances of success - I think John will react - but I'm risking little.

[BBfanboy]

With a name like Decoy, she is liable to gather a following on the way to Ceylon ... [:D]

[Simonsez]

The Generals Book

I just finished the above and it compares and contrasts MacArthur, Patton and Marshall. It evaluates their youth, their experiences in WW1 and how they survived the interwar period. I learned allot of fascinating details about all three that make me want to learn more about them, especially MacArthur (personality issues aside) and Marshall. I've been an avid admirer of Patton for many years.

Cheers!

[8D]

[HansBolter]

Might be worth using some subs to lay some eggs in Sinabang harbor.

[Canoerebel]

Did you read a real book or an electronic version? [:)]

Good to see you, JWE. How's life? Are you fulltime in South America now or are you still in Upper Alabama?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
Might be worth using some subs to lay some eggs in Sinabang harbor.

That's a good idea.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: JeffK

A bit far from Kettle Ck (or is Brier Ck close??), I one solid link I have (lots of dodgy ones)in November 1778 became a Volunteer for five months in Captain Enoch Davis'es Company Col. Locks Regiment and fought near Three Sister, Savannah and was discharged after his 5 mths was completed.

Later in the fall of 1780 then living in Randolph County N.C. he was Drafted for three months
and put into Capt. John Johnsons Company Col. Colyers Reg and fought at Briers Ck

Brier Creek was a decisive British victory shortly after the loss at Kettle Creek. Brier Creek is just below Augusta, Georgia, while Kettle Creek is perhaps 50 miles NW of Augusta. So the two were close in time and distance.

I assume your ancestor was a Loyalist? What became of him after the Revolution? Many/most loyalists stayed in America, but there was also a "diaspora" to Canada, the Bahamas, Florida, and other British territory.

No, he was a Patriot. Most of those I can trace fought against The King.

[desicat]

Have you considered moving your RCT on the West Coast to a more central position where they could be used to cut the supply line of an invading force?