Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

One last thing. Here's what I did for that 20k supply per day at the beginning of the war. There is a lot of stuff that needs to be increased. I made sure that I never spent more than 10k a day on the infrastructure. That's 10 things increasing at any one time. If you try to do everything at once, you'll bankrupt yourself. I never had an issue doing that. I would recalculate every time I had a new conquest. Half of that conquest was available for infrastructure increases. That took bookkeeping, but it works. The only supply I ship out of Japan is ~150k for Miri. I want that oil building as soon as possible. It'll take 5 months to repair it all, assuming no damage when it's taken.

+1

[jdsrae]

Everyone update your anti-virus before tomorrow

[Mike Solli]

21 Dec 43

Sub War

It was really weird. There was no sub/ASW activity at all by either side today. There was basically no night phase at all.

5 Fleet

So, today was the big day. I sent everyone in to assault Umnak Island. But, before that happened, my Sally sentai went in to soften the defenders up a bit. Later in the day, that US carrier fleet, far south of Umnak, sent in 22 Dauntlesses and 68 Avengers, their entire bomber inventory, to soften me up. I had 4x Oscar IIIas on LRCAP, and all they managed to do was to shoot one down. [8|] Apparently another crashed on the way home.

Here’s what happened:

Ground combat at Umnak Island (169,51)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 10238 troops, 152 guns, 180 vehicles, Assault Value = 294

Defending force 8183 troops, 41 guns, 165 vehicles, Assault Value = 68

Japanese adjusted assault: 120

Allied adjusted defense: 23

Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Umnak Island !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
Bolingbroke IV: 1 destroyed
P-400 Airacobra: 1 destroyed
C-47 Skytrain: 5 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
187 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
7768 casualties reported
Squads: 133 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 835 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 22 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 39 (39 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 189 (189 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 5

Assaulting units:
19th/B Division
23rd Tank Regiment
19th/A Division
19th/C Division
4th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
201st(Sep) Infantry Regiment
106th USN Base Force
North Pacific
Eleventh USAAF
802nd Engineer Aviation Battalion

Banzai! I suspect he pulled slices out of the units, but that’s still a lot of steps destroyed. I estimate this netted me over 500 VPs. I have a garrison and AS unit heading there. I’ll station a few fighters and 9 Judies to harass Dutch Harbor. I’m pulling out the division and tanks but will leave the artillery to support the garrison. The airfield and port are trashed (thanks Yamato TF!) so it’ll be a while before I can station the planes there.

The US carrier TF is heading SE toward Pearl. I have some subs vectoring in to try and get a shot off. It’s definitely worth the risk.

4 Fleet

I heard sinking sounds first thing and learned it was one of my xAPs that was torpedoed. Apparently it sank 1 hex shy of Saipan. [8|]

I have all of KB collecting 10 hexes east of Saipan. They’ll configure into 2 TF, and will be the most powerful carrier TF I’ve had to date. It is composed of 7 CVs and 2 CVLs. They have 282 Zeros (all armored), 117 Judies (18 are Y1, the rest Y3) and 138 Jills for 537 aircraft, with 73 reserve aircraft. They’re loaded for bear! I also have a replenishment fleet of 108k fuel to support them. Once everyone arrives (2 days) and refuels, they’ll disappear in the Pacific and wait.

SE Fleet

Almost 100 Allied bomber sorties hit Hollandia’s troops, disabling 5 squads. Not really worth it to me. Truk’s airfield was hit multiple times with some 200 sorties. Apparently, Ted wants to keep the airfield out of commission. My flak did kill 3x 4E bombers. On the down side, about 20 fighters were destroyed on the ground. I’ve written them off but it still pains me to see them destroyed in such a way.

SRA

Nothing to report. I continue to build defenses.

Burma

Over Akyab, 37 Tojos met 20 Hurricane IIcs. I lost 3 to his 8. I replaced that sentai with a Frank sentai for tomorrow. That should be a pleasant surprise for the Allies.

Nineteen Franks visited Kalemyo shooting down 3 of the remaining 7 Allied fighters (a mixture of Spitfire VIII, Hurricane IIc and Kittyhawk III).

China

My bombers flew, destroying 27 squads (2 infantry) and disabling another 227. The artillery bombardment added another 24 destroyed (21 infantry) and 31 disabled.

Yesterday’s attack (and possibly today’s bombardment/bombing) destroyed the following units:

Infantry: 76 remaining (-3)
Base force: 14 (-3)
Artillery: 0 (-1)
AT: 1 (no change)
AA: 2 (no change)
Construction: 0 (-1)
HQ: 10 (-12!)

They have 4 Corps (Group Army) HQs remaining, CAF (air) and 5 higher level HQs. Once I kill off either of the two categories, that will reduce the Chinese combat power.

Here are the Japanese army stats:

Fatigue: 72.1, -8.4
Disruption: 25.9, -14.0
Disablements: 15.5, -1.5

I don’t care about fatigue. They can rest when they die or conquer Chungking. Disruption is coming down nicely. My only concern is disablements. So far, I’ve been losing very few troops but this next attack is going to include everyone regardless of their state. I want as much power as I can muster. Tomorrow I’ll bomb/bombard, but probably will attack the day after.

Other Stuff

Reinforcement: DD Akishimo, (Yugumo class), KB escort

The Ki-84r R&D advanced to 5/44 (will become operational 2/44).

I got confirmation that the Grenadier sank off Truk on 8/17/43.

I have 3 IJN fighter sentai (all George) (Burma, Singapore and Saipan) that are front line fighters with 50+ experience, 70+ Air and 70+ def. They all are on 100% CAP, range 0, which boosts their experience nicely. When they get a pilot whose experience reaches 70, I pull him out and replace him with another, to build more experience. Those pilots are reserved for KB. I draw the pilots from the bottom of that pool for the land based fighters (and the top for KB). My goal going forward is to minimize the use of IJN LB fighters as much as possible. I need to start building up my IJN fighter pool. Its ok, but a couple big carrier battles will wipe it out. (And I know they are coming.)

I am excited about getting 4 new IJN fighter units in about 10 days. More trainers!

[rustysi]

Good to hear you're recovering. Stay healthy, or I won't be able to get my 'fix'.[:D]

NICE JOB at Umnak!!!! Would have liked to have been a fly on the wall when Ted received that news. Probably would've FOTWL (fell off the wall laughing).[:D]

boosts their experience nicely. When they get a pilot whose experience reaches 70, I pull him out and replace him with another, to build more experience. Those pilots are reserved for KB. I draw the pilots from the bottom of that pool for the land based fighters (and the top for KB). My goal going forward is to minimize the use of IJN LB fighters as much as possible.

Had an epiphany did we? Exactly what I attempt to do.

I wonder if that's a good thing.[:'(]

[rustysi]

BTW, is Dutch Harbor next??? Or do you think that's a 'bridge too far'.[:D]

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Good to hear you're recovering. Stay healthy, or I won't be able to get my 'fix'.[:D]

NICE JOB at Umnak!!!! Would have liked to have been a fly on the wall when Ted received that news. Probably would've FOTWL (fell off the wall laughing).[:D]

boosts their experience nicely. When they get a pilot whose experience reaches 70, I pull him out and replace him with another, to build more experience. Those pilots are reserved for KB. I draw the pilots from the bottom of that pool for the land based fighters (and the top for KB). My goal going forward is to minimize the use of IJN LB fighters as much as possible.

Had an epiphany did we? Exactly what I attempt to do.

I wonder if that's a good thing.[:'(]

This is a good thing, I suspect. What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

BTW, is Dutch Harbor next??? Or do you think that's a 'bridge too far'.[:D]

Originally, that was the plan. Not so sure now. I have no one prepped. I also have no idea what's there. Dutch Harbor's port is maxed out but the airfield is 0, so that's a plus. The nearest decent Allied airfield is at Kodiak.

I think it's too late, but if there isn't much there, I'll consider it.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli


This is a good thing, I suspect. What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?

I think it depends upon your opponent to a degree and the tempo of the game. I usually assign levels to pilots:

The best: KB pilots & Sweeper pilots
the good: front line layered defensive cap
the mediocre: escorts and rear base defense

however, some of the pilots that fly the lowest level of CAP are trained first to 70 def, I want them dancing in those Oscars. Same with escorts generally speaking...they never shoot down a lot of planes, but a decent defense means that they hopefully don't suffer too much.

[rustysi]

What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?

I don't like to lower standards until absolutely necessary. To help get the defense up I've changed my training a bit. I now train 'Lowg' after 'air'. Once that's built up into the mid sixties I then switch to 'strafe'. Seems to speed defense up a bit. Or it could just be me.[:D] At any rate I like having the 'Lowg' higher in case there's the opportunity. Like you've been strafing in China. IIRC from 1k altitude you bomb then strafe.

[rustysi]

BTW

I did learn that I can pull out the 8cm CD guns by air.

And now so have I, thanks.

They all are on 100% CAP, range 0, which boosts their experience nicely.

Never thought to try that, again thanks.

They have 282 Zeros (all armored),

All armored.[X(] Does that mean they're all A6M5c's. Isn't that the first armored Zero?

[rustysi]

Dutch Harbor's port is maxed out but the airfield is 0, so that's a plus.

Should make the op easier.

But as you say...

I think it's too late,

I also have no idea what's there.

The second quote is the biggie.

I'd keep an eye out though, maybe Ted doesn't want to lose more LCU victory points after Umnak. He could be bailing on Dutch Harbor due to lack of air support. Just a thought.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli


This is a good thing, I suspect. What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?

I think it depends upon your opponent to a degree and the tempo of the game. I usually assign levels to pilots:

The best: KB pilots & Sweeper pilots
the good: front line layered defensive cap
the mediocre: escorts and rear base defense

however, some of the pilots that fly the lowest level of CAP are trained first to 70 def, I want them dancing in those Oscars. Same with escorts generally speaking...they never shoot down a lot of planes, but a decent defense means that they hopefully don't suffer too much.

Very interesting. That's far more thought than I've ever given to this. [:(] But then, I've never come this far either.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?

I don't like to lower standards until absolutely necessary. To help get the defense up I've changed my training a bit. I now train 'Lowg' after 'air'. Once that's built up into the mid sixties I then switch to 'strafe'. Seems to speed defense up a bit. Or it could just be me.[:D] At any rate I like having the 'Lowg' higher in case there's the opportunity. Like you've been strafing in China. IIRC from 1k altitude you bomb then strafe.

I absolutely agree with you. The concern is waiting too long....

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Dutch Harbor's port is maxed out but the airfield is 0, so that's a plus.

Should make the op easier.

But as you say...

I think it's too late,

I also have no idea what's there.

The second quote is the biggie.

I'd keep an eye out though, maybe Ted doesn't want to lose more LCU victory points after Umnak. He could be bailing on Dutch Harbor due to lack of air support. Just a thought.

I've been focusing on Umnak. I have an Emily chutai up here keeping a nice eye on things, about a dozen of them. Until today, one was always reconning Umnak with the others looking for ships. I just switched the recon to Dutch Harbor today. It will give me an idea of what's there tomorrow. Not details, but something. I'll start "recon bombing" with the Sally sentai soon and when airfield repairs are complete, the Judy and Tojo chutais will join in as they can. If Ted decided to run from Dutch Harbor, he's already done it. There's no enemy shipping nearby. The US carriers are ~9-10 hexes south of Umnak (what's the range on an SBD-5 and Avenger?) and heading east. The US BBs were heading east last I saw them, about 7-8 hexes east of Umnak a couple days ago. My Emilies and subs lost track of them.

Finally, my BB TF up there is going to try and rearm at Adak this next turn. I have 2 AKEs and a Naval HQ there. We'll see if it's enough. If so, I'll probably pay Dutch Harbor a visit. Those BBs aren't staying long though, their sys damage is starting to build up.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

They have 282 Zeros (all armored),

All armored.[X(] Does that mean they're all A6M5c's. Isn't that the first armored Zero?

Not quite. A couple of the Unryus showed up with the A6M5b model. Amagi has some of them, so they're unarmored. They're almost identical to the A6M5. Two differences: 3mph slower and one of the 7.7mm was replaced with a 12.4mm. Now I remember why I didn't bother building any of them. They'll get replaced with the M5c next time she makes port.

[rustysi]

I have 2 AKEs and a Naval HQ there. We'll see if it's enough.

Should do the trick.

They'll get replaced with the M5c next time she makes port

How have you been dealing with their short range?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: jdsrae

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Right now I have 4.3 million supply (up 100k from the beginning of the month), 3.2 million fuel (up about 25k), 22.5 million resources (up 600k) and 2.1 million oil (up 75k). That does not include convoys.

A lot can happen in 6 months, but I'm hoping to keep the SLOC open that long. My goal of stuff in the Home Islands is for June 1944. Edit: I'll discuss this soon.

Made me think of a question, so what size stockpile of Resources and Fuel is enough to stop convoy imports? The answer is probably never, just keep hauling until the allies start to interfere.
Assuming 30 day months to simplify the maths. Table below shows my working:

The answer is "when you have enough in Japan to last until March 1946 at your desired production levels", so the answer to that is not quite never but basically never.

You will likely lose access to Oil/Fuel before that occurs, causing you to have to begin to curtail production unless you want to run dry immediately and then adjust. I prefer to "glide" the economy down instead of running it at full capacity and then trying to rapidly reconfigure my brain space on the new situation when one of the liquids (Oil, almost certainly) runs dry in Japan.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: rustysi

What I'm pondering is lowering my normal standard of 50+ exp, 70+ air, 70+ def. The def is what's killing me. I need to start bumping up my fighter pilot reserves in a big way. I'm thinking of lowering the def to 65+. What do you think?

I don't like to lower standards until absolutely necessary. To help get the defense up I've changed my training a bit. I now train 'Lowg' after 'air'. Once that's built up into the mid sixties I then switch to 'strafe'. Seems to speed defense up a bit. Or it could just be me.[:D] At any rate I like having the 'Lowg' higher in case there's the opportunity. Like you've been strafing in China. IIRC from 1k altitude you bomb then strafe.

I absolutely agree with you. The concern is waiting too long....

My preferred pilots are more like 65+ Exp, 70+ Air, and whatever level of Defense goes along with that. Higher is better. They're usually at least in the 60s.

The Exp is the hard part, not the rest.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

I have 2 AKEs and a Naval HQ there. We'll see if it's enough.

Should do the trick.

They'll get replaced with the M5c next time she makes port

How have you been dealing with their short range?

The 2 AKEs and HQ were enough to do the Yamatos and everything else except Nagato & Mutsu's main gun ammo before running out of OP points. More on all that in the replay below.

Their short range isn't difficult to deal with. Use drop tanks and set their range to 10, along with the Jills. No problem and no fatigue unless they fly. Some of the fighter units are set to no drop tanks and 100% CAP, range 0. That way, no real fatigue from CAP trying to fly out 10 hexes. Keep rotating units each day or two and everything is good.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: jdsrae

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Right now I have 4.3 million supply (up 100k from the beginning of the month), 3.2 million fuel (up about 25k), 22.5 million resources (up 600k) and 2.1 million oil (up 75k). That does not include convoys.

A lot can happen in 6 months, but I'm hoping to keep the SLOC open that long. My goal of stuff in the Home Islands is for June 1944. Edit: I'll discuss this soon.

Made me think of a question, so what size stockpile of Resources and Fuel is enough to stop convoy imports? The answer is probably never, just keep hauling until the allies start to interfere.
Assuming 30 day months to simplify the maths. Table below shows my working:

The answer is "when you have enough in Japan to last until March 1946 at your desired production levels", so the answer to that is not quite never but basically never.

You will likely lose access to Oil/Fuel before that occurs, causing you to have to begin to curtail production unless you want to run dry immediately and then adjust. I prefer to "glide" the economy down instead of running it at full capacity and then trying to rapidly reconfigure my brain space on the new situation when one of the liquids (Oil, almost certainly) runs dry in Japan.

Very true. I'm going to do an in depth analysis at the end of 43. State of the Empire, so to speak. [:D]