Notes from a Small Island

[BBfanboy]

Thanks for the input inqistor. I never imagined manpower would be overproducing vs needs, given the manpower shortages Japan faced IRL.

[inqistor]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Thanks for the input inqistor. I never imagined manpower would be overproducing vs needs, given the manpower shortages Japan faced IRL.

Japan? USA disbanded like 4 Divisions at home, to get replacements for Europe already in 1944!

[Barb]

In 1944/1945 both sides were suffering from acute manpower shortage - but each side decided to resolve it differently:
Axis usually drafted younger and older man - thus the 15 year old kids and 50 years old in the home-guard/Volksgrenadier, etc. but in effect many able bodied men were still kept in the factories at home. The result was enough cannon-fodder but of limited experience and morale = Japanese late war unit arrivals of 30 exp/30 morale.

Specific situation for Japanese - there were either units totally destroyed (and disbanded) - that were caught on the islands Allies invaded. Or there were those that were still mostly on full ToE on islands Allies cut-off. So not really combat replacements, just building new units.

Allies usually tried to reach the better aged men from other formations - like US AAF ground crews/Army supply chain going to infantry, Australia disbanded several brigades at home to provide replacements for front-line units. Most of the manpower drafted was from factories and women took over their jobs. Australia had about 50.000 men shortage created just to support full planned British Pacific Fleet.
After V-E day part of the US units were scheduled to remain in Europe, part was disbanded and some units were sent home to be rebuilt with fresh men - discharging the "high point men". It only make sense to get those that "earned it" home and let those "not yet earned it" to finish the job.
8th AF move from Europe to Pacific would be colossal "manpower"&"Supply" movement job. Just one BG(VH) was about 1500-2500 men plus all the stuff for their job.

[Canoerebel]

11/12/45 to 11/15/45

China: Strong enemy garrison at Shanghai suddenly and utterly collapses on the 14th, with an adjusted AV of just 500. Allies take this key base.

Chungking is worth a ton of "denominator points" to Japan, so the Allied army will join the others in moving on that base. That's a lot of ground to cover and the enemy has strongpoints along the way, such as Changhsa. But the enemy army in China is beginning to show signs of weakness, and its spread hither and yon to cover all threat vectors. I think it's worth trying for Chungking, both for the points there and for opportunities to take on enemy armies (and smaller point centers) in the interior.

Allied armies area also prepping and available to strike Korea and the Home Islands. I'm in the process of re-distributing the mass of shipping that had accumulated in China over the past six months.

I learned a lot in reducing and taking Shanghai. The power of the massed, daily BB bombardments is immense. Even the strongest garrison can't handle that, long term, along with daily bombing. The key, of course, is having secure lanes to organize such an assault. It would be much tougher against the interlocking Home Island bases, as long as enemy air power is strong. That's an environment in which Obvert excels, so I've been loathe to give him opportunities to employ his strengths (kamikazes, air power, small combat TFs, subs, mines, MTBs). But I'm going to try a few things in the waning months before 1946.

[Capt. Harlock]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

11/12/45 to 11/15/45

I learned a lot in reducing and taking Shanghai. The power of the massed, daily BB bombardments is immense. Even the strongest garrison can't handle that, long term, along with daily bombing. The key, of course, is having secure lanes to organize such an assault. It would be much tougher against the interlocking Home Island bases, as long as enemy air power is strong. That's an environment in which Obvert excels, so I've been loathe to give him opportunities to employ his strengths (kamikazes, air power, small combat TFs, subs, mines, MTBs). But I'm going to try a few things in the waning months before 1946.

Between the Iowa-class BB's, the Alaska-class BC/CB's, and the Baltimore-class CA's, you should be able to put together some fast but potent bombardment forces. Possibly you can carry out a raid and be back under LRCAP by the time the Japanese airstrike arrives?

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock


Between the Iowa-class BB's, the Alaska-class BC/CB's, and the Baltimore-class CA's, you should be able to put together some fast but potent bombardment forces. Possibly you can carry out a raid and be back under LRCAP by the time the Japanese airstrike arrives?

Possibly -- depending on how successful Dan would be in dodging any surface actions with his bombardment fleets. If the TF does both surface fighting and bombardment, it could be left hanging at or near the Japanese coast.

[Canoerebel]

That's a difficult beam to walk and maintain balance. So many things can go wrong, as jwolf alludes to.

I don't think the environment is conducive to efficient fighting. With his big airfields, untouched kamikazes, elite pilots and advance airframes, I'm afraid that major Allied expeditions near interlocking airfields would lose more than they'd gain, and perhaps far more. Eventually the Allies could probably bull their way and prevail, but it would be at high (inefficient) cost. I think it's better to concentrate the war in China, where there still remain lots of points to be harvested for bases and enemy troops. That campaign should take another two to three months. In the meantime, the strategic bombing campaign, which is going pretty well, may (or may not) have an effect on Japan's ability to wage war. If I get a sense that it's possible to suppress enemy airfields and take control of the air locally, I might try something against the Home Islands.

Right now, though, I think any move by DS anywhere close to Japan would be a mistake on an epic scale.

[Canoerebel]

11/16/45 to 11/24/45

Strategic Bombing: First large raid vs. Hiroshima last night did very well, setting 380k fires. Mouseover showed low flak but heavy fighters there, but the bombers seemed to experience heavy flak and low fighters! Altitude was lower than ordinary. I lost roughly 50-70 4EB, they downed a good 20-30 enemy fighters, so overall the raid was quite efficient (380k fires against a major target is good work for those losses). The Allies usually strike every day or every other day, sometimes combining vs. one target and sometimes spreading out, usually vs. Manpower but sometimes specific industries, and mostly at night but occasionally in daylight. Overall, the bombing campaign has done pretty darn well, especially given the quality of the opposition (both Japanese and Obvert).

China: Enemy resistance at Shanghai eradicated. Hangchow has fallen and the remaining IJA troops there (60k) will vanish in the next few days or week. Already, vanguard elements of the Allied army have pushed into central China, bypassing Changsha but taking all the nearby bases. The goal is to reach Chungking in numbers as soon as possible. I don't yet know whether Dave has the units to put up big fights in the tough terrain shy of China. Ordinarily I'd assume he does (and that's probably the case), but he's been fighting hard in a bunch of places. There's hope he can't keep plugging dikes with 100k armies.

Points: Allied lead nearly up to 50k - 140k to 90k. The taking of Chungking and other important bases in China, plus the air war, offers the most efficient means of scoring points. The Allies may finish the year with a 60k lead - that's doable if Chungking falls, perhaps not if it doesn't.

Elsewhere: I'm marshalling the troops for a Home Islands invasions but I'm not sure that I'll pull the trigger. I probably won't if Erik doesn't blunt his massive air force in the interim. I will if he takes some heavy losses. I don't think it would aid the Allied cause to venture close to interlocking major airfields since he has elite pilots, advanced air frames and has had time to accumulate and train a massive number of kamikaze pilots. He's still playing mostly a passive game, though he has awakened enough to try little things here and there.

[BBfanboy]

In your other game you had considerable success night bombing overstacked airfields to destroy aircraft and pilots. Is that a possibility in Japan or is the AA too fierce?

[JohnDillworth]

I believe there is a house rule limiting nighttime airfiled bombing to 50 bombers

[Canoerebel]

Yes, John is right about the house rule. Nighttime airfield strikes or port strikes limited to 50 bombers. Erik also positions his AA well. He knows which bases are the likely targets.

One of many unintended consequences of this house rule is that it allows Erik to spread out his nighttime bombers to every field in the Home Islands. No need to concentrate, since the largest raid he has to allow for is 50 bombers. 15 good night fighters and good flak is sufficient to ensure that no raid will work for the Allies (losses will be far greater than gains, and Allied pools are too limited for that kind of warfare).

[Canoerebel]

11/25/45 to 12/3/45

Cutting Corners: Due to real life matters (primarily my stepdad passing away and moving mom here), time was woefully short. To keep this game (and my other game, to a lesser extent) on the rails, I stopped watching the movie. The endless strategic bombing runs were just taking forever, even batting the escape key as fast as possible. When real life finally began to settle down (mostly) two weeks ago, I found that I couldn't stomach the endless replays at this point. I think I've watched one movie in the past 40 days. That's not optimal but it does allow me to play the game without bashing my head against the keyboard.

Strategic Bombing: This continues to go pretty well. I've found a pretty good variety of raids that allow the Allies to score meaningful points with acceptable losses. Strat Bombing points are up to about 33k or 34k now. Tokyo and Yokohama are still relatively untouched. Most of the others are in bad shape. Whether this has the slightest impact of Erik, given all the time he had to gather fuel and resources, I dunno. But it has been a big help in advancing the score. The Allies now lead by something like 142k to 89k. About 53k. That means I'm roughly 36k short of victory with essentially zero chance of achieving that. Given that reality, the Allies are focused primarily on the conquest of China, which will offer alot of points for bases (especially Chungking) and enemy ground units destroyed (assuming they don't vanish into the mountains). A long time ago, I estimated the Allied lead would be 40k to 60k by the end of the year. That'll be the case. By the end of the war it might be in the range of 55k to 70k.

China: With the fall of Shanghai and Hangchow, the combined Allied armies are mostly moving straight into the interior, making for Chungking. Erik has a strong blocking force at Chingkiang (or something like that, behind Changsha perhaps 8 hexes). His army is making a stand but doesn't have a prayer against what's coming. After that, the next stop is probably Chungking. I think he's having supply issues now. And I think he's plugged his fingers in so many holes in the dike that he doesn't have enough to fend off the main Allied thrust.

Home Islands: Allied troops are prepping and gathering, but I don't know if I'll ever trigger this. Given time constraints and other realities (mostly associated with the strength of the enemy air forces), I'm pretty darned sure the cost would be prohibitive - that I'd lose so much that it would offset any gains.

[tolsdorff]

From the popcorn-point of view, an invasion of the Home Islands should be a fitting end to a great late-stage game, no matter who would come out on top.

Understandably, the points count for both you and Eric, but I still would love to see the outcome of such an undertaking. It could be of epic proportions.

[BillBrown]

I agree that a home islands invasion would be interesting and informative.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

I agree that a home islands invasion would be interesting and informative.

I think the only thing it would inform us of is how easily an overpowered late game Japan can be at fending off an invasion attempt.

Just look at how effective the Kamikazes were already in getting through when a fraction of the IJ air force was involved.

Even if the Death Star can muster a 2K CAP so many are going to get through the invasion force will be savaged.

I respect CR's trepidation in treading into those waters.

It was easy for me in an AI game because I had already beaten down the air force.

[adarbrauner]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Whether this has the slightest impact of Erik, given all the time he had to gather fuel and resources, I dunno.

From now on, I don't think you'll let this happening again - at least, not without stong opposition

[John 3rd]

You know...some people call the office trying to make contact, leave a message, and...

Understand how busy you are! Been there and doing that.

[Canoerebel]

12/4/45 to 12/6/45

The War: The Allies break through the key blocking hex on the best route to Chungking. The Allied army is huge. I don't think Dave can put together a solid roadblock shy of Chungking, but that's just a guess. If so, the Allied army may reach the big base before the end of the year. The Strategic Bombing campaign continues to go pretty well (I was correct in thinking that it was best to delay things until proximity and overwhelming numbers would allow the Allies to score efficiently.)

Other than that, things are quiet. I think Erik is chomping at the bit for an opportunity to attack. I'm loathe to give him the set piece he wants. So we're circling about, casting wary glances at the other, neither doing a great deal to force an issue beyond those currently existing.

[Canoerebel]

12/7/45 to 12/27/45

Here at the End of All Things: The game doesn't end at the end of 1945. It just feels like it does.

Score: The Allied lead is 161k to 89k, or 62k points. About 27k from auto victory. Many moons ago, I posted that the Allied lead would likely be between 40k and 60k by the end of the year, and between 55k and 70k by the end of February 1946, which is when the game ends (I think). So the Allies have outperformed what I had expected, back then. The war in China and the Strategic Bombing campaign have gone better than expected.

China: The combined Allied powers eventually broke through the main enemy force barring the way to Chungking. That main enemy force is now retreating in tatters. The Allies army may cross the river and assault Chungking right at New Years Eve or New Years Day. I'm not sure if Erik has a strong reserve force or if he's really on fumes now. Supply is definitely an issue. There are a lot of points remaining in China - base points and enemy army points. I think the Chungking/Chengtu area will be secured within two weeks. As soon as Chungking falls, elements of the Allied army will move south, to work on the remaning large enemy pockets at Changsha, Hangkow and Canton/Hong Kong.

Strategic Bombing: The Allies have 39.7k. The Allies lose a material number of 4EB but far less than points scored, so that the campaign has been efficient. Most enemy bases are battered now, though Tokyo, Yokohama and Kobe are still in pretty good shape, as are some of the big aircraft plants that don't have Manpower centers.

The New Year Invasions: DS just escorted a bunch of assault shipping into the Pacific. Those TFs will evnetually go to Shikuka, for use in a possible invasion of the Home Islands. DS is now on its way back to China. The Allied army in China is mostly prepped for Korea. That invasion is also possible come the new year, once China is complete.

But I Don't Know:…if it's worth taking the chance of coming within range of Erik's uber air forces, which I believe are indeed uber even though Japan's been battered for a year. It probably isn't worth taking a chance. But I haven't made any final decisions yet.

Zzzzzzz: Erik hasn't engaged in any offensive activity in about a year. It's been a real snooze-fest, at least compared to the games vs. Dave and John III. He doesn't need to attack, but will do so with a vengeance when he feels the circumstances are right. He's been able to hole-up and rely on his denominator to keep the game afloat. So the war is two dimensional - ground war in China and strategic bombing vs. Home Islands.

[Canoerebel]

12/27/45

Asia: The seat of the war.