Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

[rustysi]

Yeah, I thought the supply somewhat low as well, but I've no personal reference 'that far out'.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
Supply: 2,388,888 - not sure if that is good or bad.
Pax?

Poor, to very bad. The saving grace is you have lots of oil left (excellent), and I believe this game generates supply refining it. Also your perimeter is still big...generating lots of oil...get it back, which I think you have done.

Start pulling fuel from your bunker (i.e. all the idle ships you have).

This is Mike's HI supply pile. Maybe he has, you know, millions left in DEI or lots of unnecessary stockpiles in the Pacific Probably not, but at least he can start scrambling right about now

[Mike Solli]

My guess is that it's low because of the Chinese AO. I shipped a lot of supply from Japan to China. That's done now. By the way, supply in Japan is up 151k so far this month.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Ok, some time to kill and I was curious. I totaled the fuel, oil, resources and supply just in the Home Islands. Nothing on ships counted, but there's still a lot coming in. Interesting numbers with one eye opening stat:

Fuel: 2,478,046 - 17.7 months worth. Now, I don't know how much of that will be used for ships and lost in wastage. I'm sure it's significant, but probably(?) no more than half. *Shrug*
Oil: 1,825,528 - 7.2 months worth.
Resources: Sit down for this one. 20,165,127, [X(] yep 20 million - 76 months worth. I think it's time to ignore resources.
Supply: 2,388,888 - not sure if that is good or bad.

Pax?

Your oil is incredibly highl and fuel incredibly low for this point in the war. By mid-war mine hovers just over 5mil fuel and around 500k-600k oil for a few years as supply and HI build. Pax advocates for more, but I'm not able to do that and fight hard simultaneously. Are you shipping oil back tube refined in the HI? Where is the oil surplus and why is it sitting there unrefined? In stock (non-DBB) oil refining obviously also creates supply, and this supply is also something you need, so maybe you're keeping it somewhere (hopefully the Home Islands) to refine later and gain the supply?

Enterring 45 my goals would be:

Fuel - 5 mil
Oil - 500k
Supply - 5-6 mil (3 million in Tokyo) (Pax would say 7 mil with 5 mil in Tokyo!![:)])
HI - 3mil

Resources - You have a lot, but a huge majority of those are not where you will need them in 45, and unfortunately, it takes more fuel to send them home. You have a lot close to home and should continually have Hokkaido and Sakhalin at close to zero since you're getting onto the HI efficiently. Don't ignore. Figure out where they are and how many months worth are in the HI.

As I can I've stockpiled some closer to home in places like the PI and Formosa with returning convoys. If possible that is better than having it in Java, Sumatra and Malaya late. You also have a zillion little resource centres in the Southern PI and dotted around. It's nearly impossible to use these resources. Yo'll waste a lot of fuel getting to them. You will need more than you have at some point though when the Allies close your lifelines to either Hokkaido, Sakhalin and Manchuria/China.

[jdsrae]

I was thinking oil is surprisingly high. No use having an oil stockpile during the end game, you need to run it to zero by refining it all at some point before your home refineries start getting B-29s hitting them.
Also on resources, I’m away from my computer but I have demand at >2M resources per month, so that’s only about 9-10 months worth of you switched off imports and kept burning it in HI/LI in the home lands

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: jdsrae

I was thinking oil is surprisingly high. No use having an oil stockpile during the end game, you need to run it to zero by refining it all at some point before your home refineries start getting B-29s hitting them.
Also on resources, I’m away from my computer but I have demand at >2M resources per month, so that’s only about 9-10 months worth of you switched off imports and kept burning it in HI/LI in the home lands

Right. I guarantee though that there is not 20 mil in the Home Islands. There will be 300-500k on numerous little islands dotted all over the Empire by now.

[jdsrae]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Ok, some time to kill and I was curious. I totaled the fuel, oil, resources and supply just in the Home Islands. Nothing on ships counted, but there's still a lot coming in. Interesting numbers with one eye opening stat:

Fuel: 2,478,046 - 17.7 months worth. Now, I don't know how much of that will be used for ships and lost in wastage. I'm sure it's significant, but probably(?) no more than half. *Shrug*
Oil: 1,825,528 - 7.2 months worth.
Resources: Sit down for this one. 20,165,127, [X(] yep 20 million - 76 months worth. I think it's time to ignore resources.
Supply: 2,388,888 - not sure if that is good or bad.

Pax?

The image below is my calc of daily demand in the Japan Economic Region (edit: Scenario 1 so yours may vary), which is the industry heartland where you need to import the vast majority of the good stuff.
Translating the daily deficits into monthly, if all of those stockpiles are in the Japan Economic Region you have:
Fuel: 20.22 months if it is all used for industry, but about half will be used for Fleet Ops, so maybe 10 months worth
Oil: 7.76 months worth
Resources: 8.50 months worth - so don't even think about slowing down the resource convoys!
Supply: not sure either as that's still on my to do list, but as the Japan Economic Region produces 622k/month that's only 4 months of production in the stockpile.

HI points pool across regions, so like Oil I think the goal is to use it all before 1946.
As we have a crystal ball and know the game will end in May 1946, and the allies will interfere with the perfect industry plan at some point, I think the Japan player should plan to refine all Oil and spend all HI points by [insert date] - to be determined by the strategic situation and specifics of each game.
So until you are spending 12140/day HI on manufacturing "stuff" (engines, aircraft, vehicles, armaments, naval and merchant shipping) you will still be growing the HI pool. At some point you need to go into deficit to use up those hard earned HI points by building something / perhaps anything before the allies come a-bombing.
My calcs suggest something like 2000 single engine planes/month tips you into deficit HI territory, so as the armaments/vehicles/naval and merchant shipping production doesn't vary that much, if you're not building 2000 engines/planes per month in 1944 you probably should be?

If I've stuffed some simple maths in this somewhere please let me know!

Cheers
Jim

[Mike Solli]

I assure you guys, those numbers I told you are just for the Home Islands. Here are my on map totals:

Fuel: 3.17 million
Oil: 2.1 million
Resources: 22.5 million
Supply: 4.3 million

That doesn't include convoys. Here is what I have on convoys heading to the Home Islands:

Fuel: 329k
Oil: 65k
Resources: 469k
Supply 71k

A I just broke 2 million HI yesterday.

And just to confirm, scenario 1 so refineries produce 9:1 fuel:supply.

I have every refinery working except Rangoon (intermittent) and the one in the north of China where nothing moves out of the hex anyway.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

I assure you guys, those numbers I told you are just for the Home Islands. Here are my on map totals:

Fuel: 3.17 million
Oil: 2.1 million
Resources: 22.5 million
Supply: 4.3 million

That doesn't include convoys. Here is what I have on convoys heading to the Home Islands:

Fuel: 329k
Oil: 65k
Resources: 469k
Supply 71k

A I just broke 2 million HI yesterday.

And just to confirm, scenario 1 so refineries produce 9:1 fuel:supply.

I have every refinery working except Rangoon (intermittent) and the one in the north of China where nothing moves out of the hex anyway.

Ok. So if you do have that many resources on the HI and so much on ships now, that might be contributing to your very low fuel situation. Maybe it's time to focus on fuel.

I did misread the top as for the entire map, but it's actually good to see both.

So why is your oil so high?

[Mike Solli]

I have no idea why my oil is so high. I've checked and every refinery in the Japan is on and has been from the start.

You've got to be right that I burned a lot of fuel shipping resources to Japan. Next turn, all of them get turned off. The only resources that will get shipped back are on ships returning to Japan empty.

I have 2 million supply around the map outside of Japan. I've just begun focusing on creating a plan to get the excess supply to Japan.

I also need to figure out why there's so much oil in Japan...

[ny59giants]

North China oil - to get it to move, you will need to create a need by shipping even more back to Japan from Korea and Manchuria.

[Mike Solli]

Thanks, Michael. I must have been doing something right. The oil level is down about 10k from when I was watching it months ago. It's moving.

[jdsrae]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

I just broke 2 million HI yesterday.

do you have a plan to spend it all?
there are no bonus victory points for how many HI points you still have in the bank come 1945/6!

[Mike Solli]

I'm not actively trying to save that many. It will get used. I'm stashing engines and will spend lots on aircraft later.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

I have no idea why my oil is so high. I've checked and every refinery in the Japan is on and has been from the start.

You've got to be right that I burned a lot of fuel shipping resources to Japan. Next turn, all of them get turned off. The only resources that will get shipped back are on ships returning to Japan empty.

I have 2 million supply around the map outside of Japan. I've just begun focusing on creating a plan to get the excess supply to Japan.

I also need to figure out why there's so much oil in Japan...

It isn't necessarily a bad thing that you have a lot of oil. It just might be a contributing factor to you not having as much supply, and of course you will want to begin earnestly converting it to fuel and supply to avoid a backlog. Maybe you're very efficient about pulling oil from big refining spots before it can be refined there? Have any of the big refineries elsewhere in the SRA been sporadically not producing?

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: obvert
Maybe you're very efficient about pulling oil from big refining spots before it can be refined there?

I'll bet that might be what's going on. That's actually not a bad thing. I do suck oil and fuel as much as I can. See below.

ORIGINAL: obvert
Have any of the big refineries elsewhere in the SRA been sporadically not producing?

That I really have no way of knowing. I have noticed that Balikpapan occasionally produces less than I expect it to produce. I pull oil out of there, but there's that extra oil field right next door that has no refinery to support it. I'll stop pulling oil for a bit to allow it to accumulate.

[rustysi]

I assure you guys, those numbers I told you are just for the Home Islands. Here are my on map totals:

Fuel: 3.17 million
Oil: 2.1 million
Resources: 22.5 million
Supply: 4.3 million

Oh, why didn't you say so, that's a horse of a different color.[:D]

Those numbers look quite a bit better. Now I'm questioning mine.[:D]

[rustysi]

(3 million in Tokyo)

I fail to understand why players advocate such a thing. Couldn't supply be reduced in an airstrike?

As I can I've stockpiled some closer to home in places like the PI and Formosa with returning convoys. If possible that is better than having it in Java, Sumatra and Malaya late

[:D]

You also have a zillion little resource centres in the Southern PI and dotted around. It's nearly impossible to use these resources.

Not so, I get them all home. That's what all those little 'tramp steamers' are for. In the PI, bring it all to Batangas, flows automatically to Manila, and then home in a larger convoy. And my fuel and oil are fine (IMHO) for 4/43. They're both also going up. If they weren't then I agree and would have to possibly curtail some of this resource 'get'.

[rustysi]

There will be 300-500k on numerous little islands dotted all over the Empire by now.

I have no such numbers in the 'Empire', and will not until my opponent forces the issue on me. Its all loading and being shipped. Oh, sure there's maybe 200k sitting in various ports, but that's production loading up. For example Singers, an obvious main hub, has a mere 17+k right now, and it draws all from the surrounding area.

[rustysi]

I was thinking oil is surprisingly high. No use having an oil stockpile during the end game, you need to run it to zero by refining it all at some point before your home refineries start getting B-29s hitting them.

Oil sources should be severed prior to the bombing becoming effective, so a surplus should be held in the HI.