Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

Good to see you back, Ranger. Your absence was noted, though not to the point that I sent you a PM or otherwise raised an alarm. I'm really glad you're back.

[RangerJoe]

Thank you.

Just remember, if someone says "Dang, I missed you!" while holding a smoking firearm, run - very, very fast!

Joe

[CaptBeefheart]

The world wonders "where is the P-80?" That's a great sweeper. If I remember correctly, you start getting them in November.

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

I've only gotten 130 P-80 Shooting Stars so far. I'm saving them for the right moment.

I tried the P-82 Shooting Stars for the first time, this turn, sweeping Maebashi. They did poorly.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've only gotten 130 P-80 Shooting Stars so far. I'm saving them for the right moment.

I tried the P-82 Shooting Stars for the first time, this turn, sweeping Maebashi. They did poorly.

Think you miss typed there. Aren't the P-82s Twin Mustangs?
I saw them as better fighter bombers than fighters. IIRC they carry two 1,000 lb bombs.

I found the P-80 to be unstoppable on sweeps. Nothing the Japanese could throw at it could compete.

[Canoerebel]

In Pursuit of Victory*

*This assumes I actually know the victory conditions. I think I do but that kind of thinking usually gets me in trouble. I won't bother looking it up, however, because my strategy will remain the same no matter what the victory conditions might be.

I think the Allies score an AV if the lead goes to 2:1 by the end of February 1946. If I'm wrong about that, it's probably that the victory is Marginal if 2:1 is achieved by that date. Either of those is fine with me. As I mentioned a few posts above, I don't really care what victory level is reported, as I consider this match a draw. I'll shoot for 2:1 for the fun of it, but it doesn't matter substantively to my evaluation of the match.

It looks like the Allies led 141k to 90k at the end of November 1945. So a lead of 51, about 39k from AV. Five weeks later (1/6/46) the lead is 157k to 89k. That's 68k, roughly 21k from AV. So, in five weeks, the Allies have moved 18k closer to AV. By that measure, AV by the end of February is attainable.

That's a bit misleading, as the fall of Chungking represents a huge number of points, including denominator. And Strat bombing has probably been "easier" that it will be going forward, because most of the remaining points are heavily defended. On the other hand, there are a lot of remaining points to be harvested in China. I also think the Ryukus are vulnerable at fairly low risk (by that, I mean I doubt Erik can use overwhelming air power that far from the Home Islands, though he can commit his navy, which who knows what might happen). And I'll try to make some things happen in Korea and the Home Islands.

Scoring another 21k points in 7+ weeks is unlikely but not impossible. A key will be to limit Denominator points, so I'd better not get to close to the Home Islands unless I know what I'm doing.

[Canoerebel]

You're right - that was a typo. The P-82 is the Twin-Mustang, which does nothing in the sweep role.

As mentioned, I have 130 Shooting Stars in the pool, increasing by three per day.

Also, three dedicated Shooting Star squadrons arrived a while back. They're staging forward, currently at Kodiak Island. They'll go into use in about a week or ten days, I think.

Shooting Star range is a bit too limited (11, I think) to reach Tokyo from any of my bases. So I might have trouble getting them into play against major opposition. Hiroshima is the only base within range that Erik is heavily guarding, and I can't figure out why he's guarding it. Most of the industry has been destroyed and it's not all that big a base in comparison to some others.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've only gotten 130 P-80 Shooting Stars so far. I'm saving them for the right moment.

I tried the P-82 Shooting Stars for the first time, this turn, sweeping Maebashi. They did poorly.

Original: HansBolter
Think you miss typed there. Aren't the P-82s Twin Mustangs?
I saw them as better fighter bombers than fighters. IIRC they carry two 1,000 lb bombs.

I found the P-80 to be unstoppable on sweeps. Nothing the Japanese could throw at it could compete.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're right - that was a typo. The P-82 is the Twin-Mustang, which does nothing in the sweep role.

As mentioned, I have 130 Shooting Stars in the pool, increasing by three per day.

Also, three dedicated Shooting Star squadrons arrived a while back. They're staging forward, currently at Kodiak Island. They'll go into use in about a week or ten days, I think.

Shooting Star range is a bit too limited (11, I think) to reach Tokyo from any of my bases. So I might have trouble getting them into play against major opposition. Hiroshima is the only base within range that Erik is heavily guarding, and I can't figure out why he's guarding it. Most of the industry has been destroyed and it's not all that big a base in comparison to some others.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've only gotten 130 P-80 Shooting Stars so far. I'm saving them for the right moment.

I tried the P-82 Shooting Stars for the first time, this turn, sweeping Maebashi. They did poorly.

Original: HansBolter
Think you miss typed there. Aren't the P-82s Twin Mustangs?
I saw them as better fighter bombers than fighters. IIRC they carry two 1,000 lb bombs.

I found the P-80 to be unstoppable on sweeps. Nothing the Japanese could throw at it could compete.

Hiroshima could have a lot of ships under repair and upgrade.

[Canoerebel]

I have Hiroshima and the other major ports under perpetual surveillance, which 100% of the time reports few if any ships, and all of those small.

Dave is hiding a fair bit of his fleets, especially merchantmen, at dot hexes or small bases. I don't go hunting everywhere, because i'm more likely to get into trouble than it's worth. I might take a stab at some places before the game ends, but I feel more secure working things I know are points efficient.

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I have Hiroshima and the other major ports under perpetual surveillance, which 100% of the time reports few if any ships, and all of those small.

Dave is hiding a fair bit of his fleets, especially merchantmen, at dot hexes or small bases. I don't go hunting everywhere, because i'm more likely to get into trouble than it's worth. I might take a stab at some places before the game ends, but I feel more secure working things I know are points efficient.

I see the pitfall of having two active AARs. [:)]

[RangerJoe]

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I have Hiroshima and the other major ports under perpetual surveillance, which 100% of the time reports few if any ships, and all of those small.

Dave is hiding a fair bit of his fleets, especially merchantmen, at dot hexes or small bases. I don't go hunting everywhere, because i'm more likely to get into trouble than it's worth. I might take a stab at some places before the game ends, but I feel more secure working things I know are points efficient.



I see the pitfall of having two active AARs.

Either that or there is a multiple personality disorder somewhere.

Maybe someone should post a picture of a tree or three and we can have 6 pages of discussion freaking the opponent out . . .

[Canoerebel]

I've always been good at mixing up names, calling people by the wrong name. One of my outstanding achievements is that I've never called my wife of 32 years (and counting) the name of the girl I previously dated for three years.

[traskott]

survival instintc, I think they call it [:'(]

[RangerJoe]

+1

[CaptBeefheart]

I hear you. Once in a while I mix up my wife's and three-year-old daughter's names, but I've never uttered an ex's name. That would be tough to recover from.

Looking forward to seeing those Shooting Stars in action.

Cheers,
CB

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've always been good at mixing up names, calling people by the wrong name. One of my outstanding achievements is that I've never called my wife of 32 years (and counting) the name of the girl I previously dated for three years.

Trust me, it is not a good thing to utter your exes name at any time, especially in the heat of passion. [:-]

[Canoerebel]

1/11/46

Score: The Allied lead is exactly 70k - 159,441 to 89,441. So about 19k from auto-victory, with just 48 days to play.

Can the Allies score 19k+ (enough + to counteract any points Japan might get) in such a short time? It's not likely but neither is it impossible. I'm trying.

I think the Allies can harvest at least 30% of those points in China, where enemy defenses are in shreds. There are high-value bases about to fall (especially Chengtu, which is a big-denominator base). And there are multiple IJ armies subject to annihilation (many of them retreating into forests off road where only bombers can really get to them). There are still good enemy garrisons at Canton, Hong Kong, Changsha, Hangkow and a couple of other bases. Those each will take a bit of time, but not long.

There are some good points for the Ryukus (Okinawa, etc.). Allied troops are prepping and moving to ports of embarkation.

There are good points for the remaining IJ bases on Hokkaido. A large Allied army is unloading at Wakkanai and will move overland against a good enemy stack in the rough forest terrain to the south. If the Allies break through, then the rest of the island should be susceptible, especially Bihoro. There are some good points there.

But Strategic Bombing is the key. That's where there are lots of points.

Erik has withdrawn most of his flak and fighters to the key bases - the remaining big and undamaged ones.

The Allies are still picking off the small bases and damaged bases that have some residual values, like Nagasaki.

Allied fighters have been sweeping Hiroshima in big numbers. For some reason, Erik is defending there, even though the points values are small.

I probably won't go after Osaka, Yokahama and Tokyo until the easy pickings are all picked. HIs big bases bristle, especially Tokyo, which has 1100 fighters and Godzilla-like AA numbers.

I think the Allies can do it.

Erik is losing steam now, unfortunately. The replays are tedious for him. I understand that feeling - I haven't watched one since the 11/25/45 turn. He's slowing down the pace of play considerably. I think we'll make it to the endgame, but I'm not positive.

[RangerJoe]

If you can get units almost surrounded and you can use a parachute unit to drop in on a trashed unit to encircle others, if you might want to consider it if you don't have an immediate pressing need for the paratroopers. Then those trapped units will die if you do get into combat with them with other ground units. When the bombing causes a lot of destroyed devices on the trapped units, a paradrop on them could work as well.

[Canoerebel]

Paratroop units will only land on base/dot hexes, so they're of no use in this particular situation.

[RangerJoe]

I thought that they will also land on enemy units.