MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

Hoping to take out a CV or two, Germany decides to continue the fight. The CW, praying for the odds to turn and expecting to take out a few of the remaining German BBs and CAs, also decides to continue to fight.

But, again, Germany rolls a '3' and the CW this time rolls a '5'.

[Red Prince]

This time, because the enemy is in a higher Section Box, the Germans only get 3 Surprise Points to spend. Instead of Increasing or Decreasing Columns, those points will be used to select the first target (aiming to kill of the CV Ark Royal). Select Target, at the bottom of the list of options, is not selectable yet, because the options are offered in order; after this form is closed, it will re-open with that button active.

[Red Prince]

This Blizzard is apparently hurting everyone's chances of hitting the target.

In Round 2:

Germany successfully knocked out its target, the CV Ark Royal (and its CVP, of course) and damaged the York, too, but failed to abort either of the big BBs.

The Commonwealth failed just as miserably, damaging the CA Admiral Hipper and aborting another CA, but failing to decrease the German fleet significantly for the time being.

[Red Prince]

Feeling a little cocky, the Germans remain to fight some more. Feeling exasperated, the CW does the same.

But this time the Germans roll a '4' and the CW rolls an '8' and there is no more combat. All that remains to be done is to abort units.

This is the Naval Abort Queue, showing the current units to be aborted in the upper right panel, the units available to abort as part of this group in the upper left panel, and all other units waiting to be aborted in the lower panel.

In this case, I first thought I would abort only Gort and his TRS to Casablanca, but I think I'll change that to include both TRS (I wanted to show units in all 3 panels).

[Red Prince]

Final tally:

Germany Destroyed 1 x TRS, 1 x GARR, 1 x Class-3 CV, 1 x Class-3 CVP
Germany Damages 1 x CA

Commonwealth Damages 1 x CA

I think that the Germans "won" this battle.
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Edit: Also, in the E. Med, Italy destroyed a CW convoy and a CL, and aborted another CW convoy and CL, while suffering only an abort on the CA Fiume. After that, searches failed.

[Red Prince]

Only one attack this impulse, on that pesky Marseilles MIL:



And the results:

Attack on France [60, 28]: Assault, Fractional Odds .964 (No), Roll = 6+1 = 7 = */2S

Goodbye, Marseilles Militia.

[Red Prince]

Very little else to report about the impulse. HQ-I Antonescu railed from Rumania to France, and the Germans rebsed aircraft to the South. Italy prepared for its upcoming attack on Athens and moved into Morocco. Japan actually made an attempt to outflank the Nationalist Chinese coming from the north, but it could be just a diversion:



And now on to Impulse #6 for the Allies (and off to the doctor for me).

[Red Prince]

I was just re-reading the rules, and if Italy can get control of Athens in the next impulse, and if there is another Axis impulse after that one . . .

Italy can align Yugoslavia before the turn ends!

This might have negative US Entry consequences, but the extra RP and Factories are worth the risk, I think. Not to mention the extra units.

[Centuur]

A couple of things here... First, there is the bloody murder thing. I hope the lesson the Germans gave has been learned. If the CW hasn't got any TRS/AMPH on the spiral, build a TRS at once. The loss is going to have a serious impact on the CW.
Second: the Germans haven't got any victory at sea at this point.  The major thing an admiral should know is when to decide it's time to withdraw. The sortie of the Germans into the North Sea to kill the "naked" TRS is good and should always be done. To continue the attack for trying to get a kill on the CW best carrier should also be done, since there aren't any losses on the German fleet at that point. One TRS and the Ark Royal Sunk. Good. However: why stay and continue the fight? You've got good results (with luck) in the first two attacks. You've got minor losses. Things would have been different when one (or two) of those big BB's would have been aborted, but since this didn't happen, you're now outgunned and if you lose more ships, it are the nice strong German ships which you will have to pick for taking losses. The German Admiral has a good result on his sortie, so abort now, before Graf Spee, Deutschland or worse is going to sink into the North Sea. However: you've stayed. The weatherservice is predicting good weather and for a fleet without air cover, that's awful news: if the UK can get a ship (or worse, a NAV) into the North Sea next impulse, with good weather the German admiral will have to pray the CW doesn't find the German ships. If he does, the Germans aren't going to win this battle at all, since the remaining CW CV's will try to kill the German Hochseeflotte, without the Germans being able to kill more than a CVP. Of course, if Herman Göring got some FTR's on the coast, things are different, but I've got the impression that this isn't the case...
About Yugoslavia: align it as soon as possible. Build points are everything in this game and are usually of more importance than US entry.

By the way: good luck at the doctor.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

A couple of things here... First, there is the bloody murder thing. I hope the lesson the Germans gave has been learned. If the CW hasn't got any TRS/AMPH on the spiral, build a TRS at once. The loss is going to have a serious impact on the CW.
Second: the Germans haven't got any victory at sea at this point.  The major thing an admiral should know is when to decide it's time to withdraw. The sortie of the Germans into the North Sea to kill the "naked" TRS is good and should always be done. To continue the attack for trying to get a kill on the CW best carrier should also be done, since there aren't any losses on the German fleet at that point. One TRS and the Ark Royal Sunk. Good. However: why stay and continue the fight? You've got good results (with luck) in the first two attacks. You've got minor losses. Things would have been different when one (or two) of those big BB's would have been aborted, but since this didn't happen, you're now outgunned and if you lose more ships, it are the nice strong German ships which you will have to pick for taking losses. The German Admiral has a good result on his sortie, so abort now, before Graf Spee, Deutschland or worse is going to sink into the North Sea. However: you've stayed. The weatherservice is predicting good weather and for a fleet without air cover, that's awful news: if the UK can get a ship (or worse, a NAV) into the North Sea next impulse, with good weather the German admiral will have to pray the CW doesn't find the German ships. If he does, the Germans aren't going to win this battle at all, since the remaining CW CV's will try to kill the German Hochseeflotte, without the Germans being able to kill more than a CVP. Of course, if Herman Göring got some FTR's on the coast, things are different, but I've got the impression that this isn't the case...
About Yugoslavia: align it as soon as possible. Build points are everything in this game and are usually of more importance than US entry.

By the way: good luck at the doctor.

There are, as far as I can remember, a German NAV and 2 FTRs on or very near the North Sea coast. It was part of the rebasing that I did for Germany. I'll post an image of that later (I'll try to remember), but I'm kind of tired right now.

The reason I stayed for another round was because the Germans actually weren't outgunned. They were still in the same Surface Row as the CW (29-38), and had fewer ships. If the rolls had succeeded, I would have tried to sink more CVs. The way I see it, the German fleet should be used to kill CVs whenever it has a chance. Even with the Damaged ship now aborted, I still think they are within the realm of the CW in terms of current factors in the North Sea. It also forces the CW to bring out more ships or to at least hold them in the area -- keeping them out of the Med. Germany is going to be building very few Naval Units, and the odds won't get any better than they are right now.

You may be right, that the units should have aborted, but since they have air cover, I don't know. I guess we'll see what happens.
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As for the doctor, thank you. I think things are okay. He sent me to get more blood-work done and another round of chest x-rays, but I doubt they'll show any trouble. I think it's just a case of a slow recovery. Last time I had pneumonia, I was in my mid-20s and it was summer. I'm now in my mid-30s and it is winter. I should expect a longer recovery period.

[Centuur]

Well. For next impulse you're okay, because the CW can't fly the NAV into the area, because of the weather...

Pneumonia at mid 20's and mid 30's? That doesn't sound good at all. Of course in winter it takes much longer to recover from this. However, you're not that old so you shouldn't catch this at all (except when you've done something very extreem...). Or are you the type who keeps on going and going even when you've got the flew (flu? Why isn't the &^%$# translation machine from google giving me a good English word for "Griep"...?) and don't listen to your body? Take care of yourself.

[Klydon]

Not going to tell anyone who can type English as well as you do Centuur about pronoucing English words, but in English, flew and flu sound the same so that might be what it is struggling with. Probaby has fun with there and their too. [:D]

On to more important matters, have to give it to the German Kreigsmarine for having a set of big ones to play in the North Sea like that even if it is a calculated risk. Given how things are going for France and their navy, the Royal Navy seems like it is going to be under a tremendous amount of pressure for awhile.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Not going to tell anyone who can type English as well as you do Centuur about pronoucing English words, but in English, flew and flu sound the same so that might be what it is struggling with. Probaby has fun with there and their too. [:D]

On to more important matters, have to give it to the German Kreigsmarine for having a set of big ones to play in the North Sea like that even if it is a calculated risk. Given how things are going for France and their navy, the Royal Navy seems like it is going to be under a tremendous amount of pressure for awhile.

Thanks. About the Germans. The French CV did escape to Dakar, though, when it was overrun, so that is still going for the French.

As to Centuur's question, part of the problem is I'm a smoker (yes, I know). Part of it is that I don't get sick often (once every 2-3 years), so I'm not used to recognizing the signs of illness and tend to wait a little longer than I should before getting medical help. I actually caught this one early, but it still takes time to get through it.

[Taxman66]

I don't know about the rest of you guys, but I never let the CW be outgunned in the North Sea. Ever. Even if it means being weaker in the Med.

I still don't see why on earth Germany hasn't sailed it's subs to the West of the British Isles? Or did GE just wind up with really low range ones to start?

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

I don't know about the rest of you guys, but I never let the CW be outgunned in the North Sea. Ever. Even if it means being weaker in the Med.

I still don't see why on earth Germany hasn't sailed it's subs to the West of the British Isles? Or did GE just wind up with really low range ones to start?

It only has 2 SUBs right now, and they have a total of 5 combat factors, I think. I can't remember the range at the moment, but I do know it isn't spectacular.

The real reason, however, that the Germans haven't sent the SUBs out yet, is that it's still only the 4th turn of the game, and they have been extremely active in Europe. They have only had the opportunity to take 2 Combined Actions so far, which means only 2 Naval Moves, and both times it seemed more important to sail the fleet than to sail the low-powered SUBs.

[Red Prince]

Well, not much happened during the Allied impulse. The CW sailed its fleet of BB into the North Sea to teach the Germans a lesson, but couldn't seem to find them in order to spank them for their misbehavior. The MECH did make it to Fez before the Italians, and the Egyptian Territorials are building a threat against Libya.

In China, the weather prevented any further significant retreats, and I'm having a hard time figuring out how to get HQ-I Chiang out of Chihkiang without putting him out of supply. The Chinese better consider building Stillwell soon, or the heartland will have no support at all.

The Communist Chinese CAV moved a hex to the East. That puts him in striking distance of several targets, which means he's within "stalling" distance as the Japanese must see it. They'll have to pull at least 2 units back from the front lines in order to contain him.

Other than that, the USA sent a GARR to Honolulu and the USSR began moving forces toward the Finnish Borderlands -- including a lot of air support -- in preparation for the claim. This temporarily does lower the Garrison Value against the Germans, but not enough to make it a problem, and once the Baltic States and the claim are made (next turn for both), the Garrison Value will jump back up again.

So, on to the Axis impulse #9, and the new weather roll . . . which continues to demonstrate an affinity for extremes:

[Red Prince]

I made a minor mistake as Germany. I flew the NAV into the North Sea 3 Box, thinking it would protect the fleet. However, I forgot that this counts as a move into the Sea Area and allows the CW to initiate combat there. A German FTR did react and was included in the combat, which resulted in 2 Commonwealth CVP being aborted, 2 of their bombers getting through, the German NAV getting through, and the FTR getting shot down, though the pilot survived.


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Edit: However, Germany managed to survive the first round of bombers unscathed, and wisely chose to abort after the first round of Naval Combat.

[Red Prince]

Two attacks this impulse. Not trusting the Fine weather to hold, Germany managed to mount a 3:1 effort against Toulouse, using a ton of Ground Support. There's actually a little better than a 50/50 chance of moving up to the 4:1 CRT. Either way, there is a minimum 70% chance of success on this attack, and while it's likely that the Germans will lose a unit and become disorganized, that's what the I Slovak MIL is there for -- to absorb the loss.

The base reason for this attack is that if the Axis does not get another impulse this turn, France will not be conquered. I'd like that finished off before we get into the long summer turns. If the attack gets very lucky, troops can be positioned for the next battle . . . the one for Spain. Even if they are disorganized, I can reorganize 3 of them and I still have more troops on the way down to this part of France.

The second attack, of course, is the one I planned on Athens. This attack actually includes an invasion. That wasn't so smart. Again, I was not thinking of the rules clearly . . . I was doing it for the Blitz Bonus, but you don't get that when attacking cities. Doh! So, the attack is actually at lower odds than it could have been because of the Notional Unit. Oh, well, 5:1 is fine . . . or it should be.



And the results:

Attack on Toulouse; Assault, Fractional Odds .401 (Yes), Roll = 7 = -/1S
Attack on Athens; Assault, Roll = 7+1 = 8 = */2S

The Germans got some luck, moving up to the 4:1 CRT, but rolled just short of remaining organized. Oh, well. Doesn't matter. France has seen the end of its European days.

Italy, too was brilliant in its effort at Athens.

Now, the Axis has to hope like hell that they get another impulse in order to move troops into position to fight Spain during the long summer months . . . and so that Italy can align Yugoslavia before the turn is over.
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Edit: In the end, I decided not to reorganize any of these units. I want to be able to move HQ-I von Bock SW 2 hexes next impulse in order to prepare the potential Paradrop on Madrid (forcing the Spanish setup to take that into account).

[Red Prince]

It looks like Orm may have been right about the re-disposition of troops in Communist China, although I don't know how much good it would have done.

This image is slightly degraded, but I wanted to show you the entire battle front in one shot.

In the North, it was actually easier than I expected to ZOC the CAV not only out of being a problem, but into Isolation, too. That was actually an accident. I didn't notice it until after I completed all of my moves. (This is where Orm was definitely correct -- that CAV should have been moved SW to protect against the Japanese CAV). Without a successful retreat by the Communists this coming impulse, which may mean abandoning Sian, that Japanese CAV is going to cause some trouble.

As I noted before, HQ-I Chiang is stuck where he is. He only has 2 movement points, so there is no way to get him out of Chihkiang without putting him out of supply. Now that the weather is clear again, his companions are going to have to abandon him in order to slow down the Japanese advance. Kunming, Chengtu, and Lanchow are all now under threat, which would leave only Chungking left as a solidly defended city.

Moving HQ-I Umezu NW last impulse turned out to be the right thing to do for the Japanese; he has now opened up a third front, and with Yamamoto covering in the south, even though the lines are fairly thin, it will be difficult for the Nationalist Chinese to stop them everywhere. I debated using Umezu to reorganize the tall stack topped by the 8-3 INF, since it has 16 factors tied up in it, but this is now a game of maneuver and that means having all Japanese HQs available to push forward, through, and around the remaining Chinese defenders.

[Red Prince]

There actually is one desperate hope left for France. And it is here, at Marseilles . . .

France can mount a 2:1 attack against the Italian INF, and if it succeeds and the turn ends (40% chance), they will survive to fight on for two more months. It also opens up a city where the incoming INF unit can be placed in a useful position.

At this point, it's time to do anything even remotely possible to stop the conquest of France.