Ukraine 2014

[beserko]

maybe the Ukrainians can empty their prisons like the Russians do. Also you may see little TAN soldiers soon

[wwjkd]

I will release a hypothetical Ukraine Escalation Scenario in 1.07.

[DirtyFred]

Thanks to Baloogan and Sunburn and Myk and many others for their many great posts! [;)]

What happens in ukraine is tragic but unavoidable. 3 empires struggle over influence spheres: the US-UK empire, the EU empire and the russian empire. it is a very complex and bad situation, that cannot be resolved with military options. see history and nukes for that (napoleon, hitler, MAD)... but i weep for the people who have lost their homes, their jobs, their loved ones. 5000 or more are dead now. on all sides.

This is a low-intensity civil war, despite the propaganda claims of russian and NATO invasion. Because of failures in the past and bad governments that doomed ukraine to become a poor nation, and now a failed state, also corruption at every level and greedy oligarchs, the fanatics on either side ignited a civil war.

If i would model that in CMANO, i would use small units (max. batallion size) with lots of infantry and irregular units. some armor, few sams, very few aircraft. most of the inventory is not serviced properly, breaks down often, also takeover of enemy equipment is frequent, especially from demoralized units.

objectives for the blue side (west ukraine forces):

retake donezk, lugansk, later crimea (with NATO help?)

objectives for the red side (east ukraine separatists):

defend donezk, lugansk, etablish a buffer zone to the west ukraine (with help from russia?)

several scenarios required (three or four)

some actual events here (beware some of it is propaganda!):
http://liveuamap.com

have to sleep on this... im so sad now

[DirtyFred]

ok... Baloogan did a beautiful job listing forces in the crimea region
http://wiki.baloogancampaign.com/index. ... raine_2014

now for the civil war forces:
remember, propaganda is intense, so is disinformation, also this is a war of attrition and both sides are corrupt and bankrupt, have to rely on help from outside, even more so in 2015.

west ukraine forces
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territoria ... Ukraine%29

east ukraine forces
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Arm ... ovorossiya
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_eq ... ovorossiya

now for a real local battle:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_20 ... pol_attack

Battle of Mariupol scenario

background:

Mariupol would be vital to the economy of any state or autonomous entity that rebels might establish in eastern Ukraine. With a population of 460,000 it is the second-largest city in the Donetsk region and the centre of eastern Ukraine’s metallurgical industry. Much of the coal mined in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions has traditionally gone to fuel the country’s two largest steel-making plants in Mariupol, or has been exported via Mariupol port, the largest in eastern Ukraine.

Many in the city believe that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, wants to create a land corridor to annexed Crimea, which would require conquering not only Mariupol, but also wide swaths of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, which have not yet seen large movements of pro-Russia forces.

Mariupol residents say the local population is evenly split between those who support Kiev and those who would like to join the breakaway Donetsk people’s republic. The pro-Russia side briefly held sway over Mariupol shortly after the start of the conflict, before Kiev’s forces drove them out in an operation in May.

Pro-Russia forces have held the coastal town of Novoazovsk, about 20 miles east of Mariupol and less than 10 from the Russian border, since August.

Mariupol has been steeling itself against attack since, building fortifications, setting explosives on bridges and mining the harbour.

Clashes between pro-Russia and Ukrainian forces have been increasing in the area since the ceasefire. The epicentre of the fighting has been the town of Shyrokyne, which by some estimates has been three-quarters destroyed by frequent shelling.

source: http://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-guard ... 1/TextView

forces in battle

Kyiv Forces:

Azov batallion (300-800 strength)
Donbas battalion
Mariupol battalion
37th ukrainian army brigade
Ukrainian sea guard marines
Chechen paramilitaries
oligarch security forces
police? mercenaries?

Donbass Forces:

Vostok brigade (now a batallion of 500)
Voshod Battalion
Sparta Battalion
Russian Orthodox Army (2500-3000)
Cossacks
Ossetian and Abkhaz paramilitaries

ok... now i need help what equipment they would have (use). remember, at debaltsevo the west ukrainian army had counter-mortar equipment, but they did not use it (it was boxed)? a rookie cannot use any complicated weapon, a veteran can, a professional soldier or mercenary can use the lastest equipment well.

i will sleep on this a little bit...

[DirtyFred]

Interesting article on the black sea fleet:
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/putins ... 1537656215