OT: Corona virus

[Erik Rutins]

I would consider the Iran numbers mostly fictional until further notice.

[Scott_USN]

Yeah I agree with you both, Italy is almost the same with 3rd less recovery and I would think better medical care although I have no information on Iranian healthcare system. But kissing idols or whatever doesn't sound smart right now.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Johns Hopkins screen grab as of 3/8/20 at about 7 p.m. eastern (USA) time. 110k cases; 3.8k deaths.

On 3/2/20, I posted a screen grab showing 80k cases and 3.0k deaths. So, about 800 deaths this week and nearly 30k new cases, only a small percentage of which were in China.

I noted a few days ago that the first cases were reported in my little town in northwest Georgia. As best I can tell, life continues normally. Grocery stores fully stocked; restaurants full; etc. Yesterday, I went on a long hike on Pigeon Mountain to take photos for a story. Today our family was in church and then met other family for lunch in Marietta, where there's another confirmed case. The virus has been a topic of conversation but without any real alarm. I don't know if we're like Noah's non-listening neighbors as he warns of coming flood, or if our intuition is on target. Hopefully the latter.

Do you find that your behaviour has changed at all? Do you wash hands more than before this outbreak? Do you consider how many lengthy conversations you have with people you know well, vs those you don't know as well?

My behaviour has altered dramatically. I have an annoying habit of biting my fingernails unconsciously when watching tense TV/Films and sometimes while reading or just thinking. I am aware this is not hygenic and have stopped for periods of time before.

Once on my long around the world trip in '96, I made a concerted effort not to touch my face at all upon reaching India. The kicker was having a group of kids follow me around one of my first days in Mumbai and one of them squatting in front me, taking a dump, and wiping it with his hands, then attempting to grab my clothes. It also didn't help that there had been a recent outbreak of bubonic plague in a nearby state.

Now I am conscious of everything I touch when on the tube. Carry hand sanitiser (hospital 70% alcohol) and wash after arriving anywhere. I carry a face mask but haven't used it yet, but often keep my gloves on since it is still winter. I don't direct my face toward strangers, move away from those who are coughing, cover my own face in my arm crook if I cough, and attempt to use my height to get above the general firing line of people's spit. Part of my concern is that I work in close contact with a very international community of students and teachers. I also have to commute on public transit, and have a wife and daughter who do the same, both of whom also go to be with large concentrations of people during the day. (One helpful data point from the WHO report linked by Kull was that there were no known transmissions from kids to adults in China, when it was written).

I tend not to engage in conversations where large groups are in close contact, and limit my time speaking to anyone. Although I did go to a football match at the weekend, and a market, and took all kinds of transport.

The real change is that my wife and I spoke this weekend and decided to stop kissing or engaging in close intimate contact until she gives birth to our second child in about 5 weeks. I don't want to have her get any disease in this last stretch and it just makes sense to take the hit for a while until we see how this develops. She'll stop working soon and reduce her exposure, but I may have to continue depending on what schools here decide to do.

I've been less worried for us recently, having read so much and learned so much on this thread, so thanks to all who contribute new research, ideas and balance to this discussion. [&o]

[obvert]

This is an interesting data visualisation with some point isolation not included in the JH map we've been looking at a lot. For the maps it allows daily numbers for areas with regional data which is interesting.

https://www.mapbox.cn/coronavirusmap/#1.03/-4.9/41.5

[Canoerebel]

In the 12 hours since my last Johns Hopkins post, 36 new cases in Mainland China.

This is a medical, not mathematical issue. But to the extent information is quantifiable and reliable, math can reveal a lot about trend. In my own analysis of what's going on, China offers the single most significant point of hope. The quality of our healthcare would be the second.

To answer Obvert's question, I wash my hands more but otherwise haven't changed my routine. But living in the countryside where the virus outbreak hasn't yet "blossomed" is probably a lot different than living in an urban environment, riding mass transit, where the virus has been present and growing for weeks.

[jeffk3510]

We haven't changed any routines here either, but have emphasized cleanliness with our kids (who struggle to flush toilets and wash hands to begin with). Personal life = fine. That wouldn't change one bit regardless of where I live.

Work life is a whole different story. Oil was down 29% overnight. That is not a misquote. This market pullback is a nasty hit for some people. Sure the virus is killing people worldwide.

We have a disease every election year. I don't care if that's a political statement - it's a fact.

SARS 04'
AVIAN 08'
SWINE 10'
MERS 12'
EBOLA 14'
ZIKA 16'
EBOLA 18'
CORONA 20'

Don't believe me? Go look it up. That is ALL this is.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

We haven't changed any routines here either, but have emphasized cleanliness with our kids (who struggle to flush toilets and wash hands to begin with). Personal life = fine. That wouldn't change one bit regardless of where I live.

Work life is a whole different story. Oil was down 29% overnight. That is not a misquote. This market pullback is a nasty hit for some people. Sure the virus is killing people worldwide.

We have a disease every election year. I don't care if that's a political statement - it's a fact.

SARS 04'
AVIAN 08'
SWINE 10'
MERS 12'
EBOLA 14'
ZIKA 16'
EBOLA 18'
CORONA 20'

Don't believe me? Go look it up. That is ALL this is.

It looks like the data you present is completely correct. I don't understand though, are you making a correlation? Why do you imagine showing this would make people think you're making a political statement?

[Q-Ball]

It's behind a paywall, but The Atlantic has an article on Iran and COVID 19. Using various data metrics and data points for what is available, experts peg the actual number of cases in Iran at somewhere between 500,000 and 2 million! The government is actively supressing any information, so no official data from Iran should be trusted at all.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ms/607663/

Iran seems like the epicenter of the crisis in many ways; they are doing nothing to contain it. At the the Chinese are trying.

[MakeeLearn]

“It is far more important to know what person the disease has than what disease the person has.” ― Hippocrates

[Canoerebel]

In coming weeks it should be interesting to see how the "recovery" numbers climb for countries that have been dealing with the virus for weeks or a month.

At present, South Korea has a small number of recoveries, a small number of deaths (relatively speaking) and a large number of active cases. A lot of those active cases are a week or more old now; soon, they should begin to transition to mostly recoveries and a small percentage of deaths.

China has 59k of the world's 62k recoveries, to date, skewed because China dealt with it first. That should begin to change, possibly as soon as this week, as cases in countries like Japan, South Korea, and even Italy and Iran should begin to have sufficient age to begin transitioning to one of the two final statistical categories.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

It's behind a paywall, but The Atlantic has an article on Iran and COVID 19. Using various data metrics and data points for what is available, experts peg the actual number of cases in Iran at somewhere between 500,000 and 2 million! The government is actively supressing any information, so no official data from Iran should be trusted at all.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ms/607663/

Iran seems like the epicenter of the crisis in many ways; they are doing nothing to contain it. At the the Chinese are trying.

Just read it. Wow. That is not great.

It shows that how countries react is going to do a lot to determine how this plays out. I don't read The Atlantic so had four free articles before the walls went up. Here are some snippets.
[font="Trebuchet MS"]
That’s a lot of tainted apples, statistically speaking. Why would Iran lie? On February 21, Iran conducted the latest in a series of sham elections in which only government-selected candidates could run for office. To show disapproval, many Iranians refuse to vote, and as participation has dropped, the appearance of electoral legitimacy has dropped as well. Iran’s government told its people that the United States had hyped COVID-19 to suppress turnout, and Tehran vowed to punish anyone spreading rumors about a serious epidemic. Forty-three percent of Iranians voted, unaware that the outbreak had already begun. Quick action could have allowed quarantines to be put in place. Instead Iran greased its own path toward the most catastrophic outbreak in modern history.

...

A paper by the University of Toronto’s Ashleigh Tuite and others noted that, by February 23, cases of Iranian origin had surfaced in Canada, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates. Given the volume of air travel between Iran and these countries, Tuite’s team estimated how many native COVID-19 cases must have occurred in Iran to produce one case each in these other countries. Their estimate for February 23: 18,300. Since the epidemic reached 100 cumulative cases, the official numbers have doubled roughly every three days. If that rate held, the estimate as of today would be 586,000.

...

The messages coming out of Iran on social media, especially from health-care workers, do little to convince me that my doomsday figures are inaccurate. ...

The situation the doctors describe is desperate, with nurses wrapping themselves in tablecloths because they have long since run through their supply of proper gear. They swear that the official numbers are wrong. “Just stay overnight in the hospital to find out what I'm talking about,” one wrote. Or if you want to live, go home, and don’t come out until the plague passes. “[Our] society now needs fear more than hope.”
[/font]

[durnedwolf]

I found this breakdown of the deaths attributed to the Corona virus interesting:




And here's a link to the data I pulled this from:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[spence]

Italy extended the quarantine from Lombardy to include the entire country today.

[MakeeLearn]

Ireland cancels St. Patrick's Day festivities over coronavirus concerns

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/irel ... n1153591?=
"St. Patrick's Day festivities in the Republic of Ireland have been canceled amid concerns about the spread of coronavirus.

The cancellations have come at the advice of health officials to help slow the spread of the virus, Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said Monday. There have been a total of 19 cases of COVID-19, the disease associated with coronavirus, in the Republic of Ireland.

The cancellations include the national St. Patrick's Festival parade in Dublin on March 17."



What's next...

CHRISTMAS CANCELLED!!!

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Ireland cancels St. Patrick's Day festivities over coronavirus concerns

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/irel ... n1153591?=
"St. Patrick's Day festivities in the Republic of Ireland have been canceled amid concerns about the spread of coronavirus.

The cancellations have come at the advice of health officials to help slow the spread of the virus, Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said Monday. There have been a total of 19 cases of COVID-19, the disease associated with coronavirus, in the Republic of Ireland.

The cancellations include the national St. Patrick's Festival parade in Dublin on March 17."



What's next...

CHRISTMAS CANCELLED!!!

lol - if Saint Nick gets the virus and visits the house of every boy and girl in 1 day... I just don't think our healthcare services would be up to the task.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Ireland cancels St. Patrick's Day festivities over coronavirus concerns

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/irel ... n1153591?=
"St. Patrick's Day festivities in the Republic of Ireland have been canceled amid concerns about the spread of coronavirus.

The cancellations have come at the advice of health officials to help slow the spread of the virus, Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said Monday. There have been a total of 19 cases of COVID-19, the disease associated with coronavirus, in the Republic of Ireland.

The cancellations include the national St. Patrick's Festival parade in Dublin on March 17."



What's next...

CHRISTMAS CANCELLED!!!

lol - if Saint Nick gets the virus and visits the house of every boy and girl in 1 day... I just don't think our healthcare services would be up to the task.

Do you know why Santa is so jolly?

He knows where all of the bad girls live. [;)]

[durnedwolf]

lol - and I suppose he left each of those houses with a twinkle in his eye. [:D]

[CaptBeefheart]

Here's a good piece on how Korea has handled things written by a good buddy who is not too bad of a hack: Why are Korea’s Covid-19 death rates so low?

So, the calculated death rate in Korea is probably closer to the reality than anywhere else, and the main reason is an abundance of testing. I think all of those 210,000 cultists have been tested by now whether they displayed symptoms or not.

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

Here's the Johns Hopkins map as of 11 p.m. (eastern, USA) on the 9th. This is about 28 hours after the previous map posting, yesterday.

[Scott_USN]

So South Korea has stopped the large numbers from growing. Good for them.