OT: Corona virus

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't have confidence in Lokasenna's conjectures about my conjectures. [:)]

Well, I no longer see his conjectures. Your conjectures seem fine to me.

OK, I give in - you'll get a rise out of me.

This passive-aggressive pointing out that you've ignored me because of a misunderstanding is not becoming of someone of your presumed age and stature. Since I seem to have been nominated as the resident scold, I may as well step in to the role, yeah?

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The folks who have gotten it consistently wrong are the ones who wish to impose their views on those who got it right.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Of course not. The proof was, and is, in the pudding.

Isn't clarity something good writers are supposed to strive for? Clear and concise. You're only getting the last part lately.

As for the proof - (1) you're not even saying what is supposedly proven by the pudding, and (2) you're not providing the pudding.

I demand pudding. Or pudding pie.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From the preceding link provided by MakeeLearn (Swiss Propaganda Research): "Countries without lockdowns and contact bans, such as Japan, South Korea and Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than other countries. This might call into question the effectiveness of such far-reaching measures."

I don't know anything about that outfit or its methods, but this finding would be groundbreaking if true.

Sweden's deaths per MM: 91.9 (but they literally take the weekend off from reporting accurate numbers and you can see this in a chart of their data; mid-week each week it resumes its upward march).

Germany's deaths per MM: 38.5


Meanwhile, South Korea didn't have to impose lockdown measures because they acted swiftly to implement testing and tracing (and quarantining contacts).


You can see the same thing happening within the US as well: California acted earlier than New York to impose lockdown measures, and they're doing much better at keeping deaths down because of it.

It's not the only factor, but it's huge.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From Swiss Media Group: "In a serological pilot study, German virologist Hendrick Streeck comes to the interim result that the lethality of Covid19 is at 0.37% and the mortality (based on the total population) at 0.06%. These values are about ten times lower than those of the WHO and about five times lower than those of Johns Hopkins University."

If that's true, Chickenboy's thoughts way back on February 26 were on target.

Could you quote for us, since you bothered to note it already?

Did his thoughts include that (via serological testing verification) we could find out that the infection rate was higher than we knew at the time? I do remember that being widely conjectured, at least as early as mid-March if not sooner.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Careful Brazilian case/control study of Hydroxychloroquine halted because of dangerous arrhythmias in the high dose group (600 mg twice a day).

There was a convincing incidence of ventricular tachycardia

The patients still alive were converted to 450 twice a day. This is why you need the science instead of listening to prophets.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus ... tification

That would be absurd, and we'd actually have to make elected officials listen to expert medical opinion.

Based on past experience I'm going to guess you mean Trump. The thing is he DID listen to the advisers. There is an NIH study in the US. There is some value in elected officials offering some hope and keeping spirits up.

Given that he's in Britain, he could be talking about a British politician as well. *shrug*

I posted a link yesterday where this malaria treatment was shown not to be effective against COVID-19.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Encircled

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/vid ... 1586845225

Trump has said "When someone is President of the USA, his authority is total"

Surely that isn't the case, I thought the individual states has powers to stop that sort of thing? (genuine question btw)

That may be a genuine question but that devolves into politics.

Nah, we can answer factually.

The president doesn't have total authority in the US. The idea that the position has total authority is a complete fantasy.

However, there are some things the federal government can stop states from doing or force them to do. Likewise, there are some things that only states can do and the federal government can't.

One of those things that the federal government doesn't have authority over is state-wide lockdown orders for public health emergencies. Intra-state matters are governed by governors/the states; inter-state matters are governed by the feds (in general).

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Context people.

Taken alone, it is a ridiculous assertion but it wasn't meant to be taken alone. It was a response to a SPECIFIC question about lock-down rollbacks and governors making that call.

Is the criticism political? Hell yes it is. Mario the Pious (Cuomo) is the same guy who was bashing Trump and FEMA for not sending him 30,000 ventilators (which was WAAAY more than he needed and FEMA didn't even have that many) and now he wants to secede from the Union with New Jersey and Connecticut and Rhode Island decide when to reverse the Federal lock down order? Is he going to send the NYPD to bombard the Statue of Liberty? Do they have a flag yet? They will have to make one because the Stars and Bars are taken. I suggest the Yankee logo on a blue background.

What?


Although +1 for kicking the NYY out.

[Canoerebel]

California didn't act earlier.

California and New York issues their shelter-in-place/emergency orders almost simultaneously: California on March 19 and New York on March 20.

There probably are differences in restrictions, etc., but overall it seems they were close together.

Given the data on hand, it seems like California had cases before NY (IIRC), so its surprising the outbreak has been so contained there.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


Sorry, but even with the context it still doesn't cut it.

You would think on a country that takes great pride in its democratic traditions would produce a leader that's a little more in tune with those principles...

Yes, yes, yes! We get that you don't like Trumpolini and take a supercilious air about those who voted for him.

By ra way, I propose a compromise. How about YOU vote for Glasgow City Council and let us vote for President? We promise to not say anything about parking enforcement and trash collection or the abridgement of internet speech and you let us try to find a vaccine and try to avoid sending the world into a 10 year depression by crushing a $22T economy?

This sort of thing is unnecessary.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

California didn't act earlier.

California and New York issues their shelter-in-place/emergency orders almost simultaneously: California on March 19 and New York on March 20.

There probably are differences in restrictions, etc., but overall it seems they were close together.

Given the data on hand, it seems like California had cases before NY (IIRC), so its surprising the outbreak has been so contained there.

California is not as densely packed as New York City.

Whatever he posted:

Lokasenna

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[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

California didn't act earlier.

California and New York issues their shelter-in-place/emergency orders almost simultaneously: California on March 19 and New York on March 20.

There probably are differences in restrictions, etc., but overall it seems they were close together.

Given the data on hand, it seems like California had cases before NY (IIRC), so its surprising the outbreak has been so contained there.

Your NY date is wrong. It's March 22.

Also note the difference in tone between the local public officials:

Mayor de Blasio in NYC telling "New Yorkers to go on with your lives" and "get out on the town despite Coronavirus" (quotes from his tweets).

Mayor Breed in SF saying "prepare for possible disruption from an outbreak" and had declared a local state of emergency on February 25.


More here: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/7/21205890/c ... california

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The virus arrived at many US cities at the same time or earlier than it arrived in NY. Those other cities didn't experience massive outbreaks, either due to luck or some combination of other factors. Given your concerns, other cities already should have had raging outbreaks.

And Michigan isn't close to NYC. From NYC to Detroit is 614 miles - about the same as from London to Berlin.

San Francisco imposing an earlier lock down order might've had something to do with that, don'tcha think?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: 22sec

Two weeks ago they were calling for the President to institute a nationwide lockdown. Now they are claiming the President doesn’t have the authority to reopen the country. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Because he didn't do any nationwide lockdown, so he can't lift it.

If he had, he could.

That's federalism for ya.

[MakeeLearn]

.....

[Canoerebel]

The sources I've seen report NY's shelter-in-place as of March 20, including this: "As the number of COVID-19 cases balloons throughout New York—which has emerged as the epicenter of the new coronavirus pandemic—Gov. Andrew Cuomo has ordered all non-essential retailers and businesses to close, and for residents across the state to stay home as much as possible in an effort to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus. The order was put into place on March 20, and will be in effect through April 29."

Various citations: https://ny.curbed.com/2020/3/20/2118702 ... r-in-place

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 092413002/

I tried to find via NY Times but there's a pay wall.

But whether 3/19 or 3/23, the orders were nearly simultaneous. Some cities may have handled differently. But California had reported cases before NY, didn't impose lockdown measures for some time, and didn't experience a outbreak on the scale of NYC.

[Encircled]

Oh, big positives in the today daily press conference over here.

Yvonne Doyle from Public Health England

- There’s so much I wish I’d known in January. Could have done things differently.

- Of course we can do things better

Defo the way to go to keep the public on side

[MakeeLearn]

Protesters, anti-quarantine groups call for end to coronavirus closures
04/14/20 11:48 AM EDT


https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... s-closures


"Growing unrest from coronavirus “stay at home” orders in place across the country have resulted in organized protests and the creation of anti-quarantine organizations across the nation."

"Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert and member of the administration’s coronavirus task force, has said gradual reductions of coronavirus restrictions could happen in some parts of the country as soon as next month.

“We are hoping at the end of the month we can look around and say, 'Is there any element here we can safely and cautiously start pulling back on?'” Fauci said on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday. “If so, do it. If not, then just continue to hunker down.”

Fauci has also said that the U.S. can expect to see “a real degree of normalcy” by November."

[MakeeLearn]

Some social distancing may be needed into 2022 to keep coronavirus in check, new study says
April 14, 2020


https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/14/som ... tudy-says/


"A modeling study on the new coronavirus warns that intermittent periods of social distancing may need to persist into 2022 in the United States to keep the surge of people severely sickened by Covid-19 from overwhelming the health care system.

The research, published Tuesday in the journal Science, looked at a range of scenarios for how the SARS-CoV-2 virus will spread over the next five years. Those scenarios included variables like whether people who are infected develop short-term immunity — less than a year — or longer-term protection. But, overall, the research concludes it is unlikely that life will return any time soon to the way it was before the virus’ emergence."

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The virus arrived at many US cities at the same time or earlier than it arrived in NY. Those other cities didn't experience massive outbreaks, either due to luck or some combination of other factors. Given your concerns, other cities already should have had raging outbreaks.

And Michigan isn't close to NYC. From NYC to Detroit is 614 miles - about the same as from London to Berlin.

I think that if you look right to the beginning the picture might be a little misleading. Remember that the virus started in China and so initially would have been coming into the US from the West Coast. I'd suggest that is why you have early start dates for places like Washington State and California. Your president took a lot of criticism for shutting down the flights in from China but it seems to me that from that perspective at least he was ahead of the curve and gave you another month or so before it started breaking out again in earnest on the East Coast fueled by infections coming from Europe (at what point were flights stopped from Italy and Spain?).

In terms of deaths/million - New York is worse than any of the European countries on 513. You then have Spain Italy and Belgium on c.350, New Jersey/France on c.250, and then Louisiana, Connecticut, Michigan and the UK on c.160-180. Massachusetts is on c120. For me that (Louisiana aside) gives support to a suggestion that the US might actually be dealing with its second outbreak.

I'm finishing my lunch break now and will have to come back to any responses this evening.

Or Chicago/Detroit, which are also common (more common? I haven't looked) airports for flights to/from China.

I think MSP, too.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Encircled



Of course some of the criticism is political, but a hell of a lot of it appears to be justified.

UK/US did something different, and the result is, well, out there for all to see.

Whether you are a Democrat, Republican, Green, labour, Tory, Lib Dem (thats me!), SNP whatever, you want to make sure the lessons from this are learnt.

To do that, you have to acknowledge mistakes.

Now if anyone thinks both the UK and the US are doing that (certainly at government level) then I'm yet to see it.

Somebody should have banned wet markets after SARS

The f****** Chicoms should not have lied to cover up the problem

The WHO should not have whored themselves out to cover the Chicoms

All flights out of China to ANYWHERE should have been banned in early January or even late December

The US should have gone on lockdown earlier but nuking the economy is a BIG decision

Miami should have banned Spring Break

New Orleans should have banned Mardi Gras

The NFL should have cancelled a live Super Bowl

The NBA should have shut down a month earlier

NY should have shut down their mass transit.

People should have followed the shutdown rules better

Lee should not have attacked the Union center on day 3

Agree with all of these shoulds, at least starting with the 4th one about the flights.

It's way better to appear like we overreacted to a pandemic than to underreact. There was a good quote in that Vox I just linked: “Anytime you are dealing with an outbreak, if it appears like you overreacted, then you probably did the right thing."

[Uncivil Engineer]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Protesters, anti-quarantine groups call for end to coronavirus closures
04/14/20 11:48 AM EDT


https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... s-closures


"Growing unrest from coronavirus “stay at home” orders in place across the country have resulted in organized protests and the creation of anti-quarantine organizations across the nation."

"Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert and member of the administration’s coronavirus task force, has said gradual reductions of coronavirus restrictions could happen in some parts of the country as soon as next month.

“We are hoping at the end of the month we can look around and say, 'Is there any element here we can safely and cautiously start pulling back on?'” Fauci said on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday. “If so, do it. If not, then just continue to hunker down.”

Fauci has also said that the U.S. can expect to see “a real degree of normalcy” by November."

And to repeat - the only person on the task force NOT drawing a paycheck is Donald TRUMP!