The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Regarding the defense of Sabang, my thoughts run like this: The hex currently has 500 AV with another 300 to 500 just a day or two away. The base has four forts. There is 100% prep with SWPac 100% prepped. (But prep is going to be offset by the enemy having similar numbers, I think). Say John comes with six divisions. They will be badly disrupted in landing, even with full prep (I think???). If they are badly disrupted, then overstacking will become an issue. Thus, I don't think even six divisions would guarantee victory, at least in the short term.

What do you think?

In my current RA game, the Japanese managed to land 7 divisions and an army HQ at Pegu (1x terrain like Sabang) after the amphibious bonus ran out. The next day the Japanese launched a deliberate attack with 2600 AV adjusted up to 3500 which easily smashed through my defenders. I imagine John could achieve something similar to this as long as he waits for the 100% prep bonus.

Also, I believe that Sabang should have a very high stacking limit as it sits along a main road an in 1x terrain. Without looking at a map I'd say it's probably 95k at minimum. 6 IJA divisions shouldn't cause overstacking at Sabang. Truth be told it's looking like a picture perfect 1943 counter invasion for Japan. Strategically Sumatra is isolated with no depth behind Sabang and Sabang itself is open terrain. If it were me I'd be looking at the SWPAC and SOPAC while John is fixated on Sumatra.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

I admittedly don't know enough about Japanese amphibious operations mid war. That said, he is putting all his chips on the table in this. I don't think 500 AV behind lvl 4 forts is gonna be enough. And you might not get more than a day to react.

It sure as heck would (and will) give me ulcers. And it's not even my game! [:'(]

What he said!

[poodlebrain]

The most challenging, and entertaining, aspect of WitPAE is the need to make decisions with incomplete information. You are currently getting to make those decisions on an almost daily basis, and you are doing it publically. I want to let you know how much I appreciate your letting those of us in the peanut gallery participate in your decision making process.

Hoping not to be too big a pain in the ass, I have a few questions that I think might be helpful in planning your defense of Sabang that you might have already considered, but not shared with us.

How many undisrupted AV do you think the Japanese will need to capture Sabang via amphibious assault relative to the AV of the defenders?

Can the Japanese deliver such a force to Sabang without overstacking? If so, can you reasonably increase your defenders enough to force the Japanese to overstack if they want to capture Sabang?

What can you do to increase the disruption/disablement of the invaders?

[poodlebrain]

Sabang has level 4 forts. So it will take 6:1 odds to capture the base in the initial attack. The Japanese will need more than 7 divisions to amass the requisite AV if the defenders have even the slightest upward adjustment to their AV, and with 100% prep plus HQ the Allies should get some upward adjustment.

Canoerebel's minimum acceptable outcome is to prolong the campaign until the Japanese forces committed to the Battle of Sumatra cannot intervene with his planned Operation Circus. With the information I have been able to glean I think the Japanese can invade Sabang, but I don't think they can capture Sabang with overwhelming force. I think they will have to grind down the defenders.

[Canoerebel]

The latter is my hope, poodle.

Originally - from D-Day on November 10 through the end of February 1943, the Japanese couldn't invade Sabang due to mines and combat ships. Since then my main hope has been a Japanese player's natural reluctance to take on an unknown quanity, but that obviously includes a large stack of units, without the invasion bonus. But a major part of the defense is the idea (not a certainty) that Allied troops can rally to Sabang from Langsa via rail movement. John can overcome this possibilty by simultaneously invading Langsa to pin the troops there, though I don't know if he's thought that far ahead. But he might have.

As a result, I'm going ahead and transferring some units from Langsa to Sabang next turn - a US division and an Indian brigade. This will bring Langsa's defnese to roughly 800 AV with another 125 close by and another 140 a few days away.

So, if a coup de main fails on the D + 1, the Allies may be able to get as much as 1,000 to 1,200 AV to Sabang. Most or all of this will have 100% prep and SWPac HQ should add to the adjusted AV.

Another part of my planning was an expectation that any invasion would badly disrupt the Japanese army. Early on that was realistic given prep considerations for John. But he's had time to prep an army now. Whether he's had time enough to prep six or seven divisions, I don't know.

But say the Allies end up with 1,200 AV. This will include some armor and artillery. John will probably need six divisions to realistically hope to break through in a reasonable amount of time. But I admit my calculations were somewhat dependent on the idea of disruption having a positive effect. It might not.

[Canoerebel]

4/11/43

Battle of Sumatra: The Kongos bombard Sabang; Four Sisters (CAs) bombard Sabang; two BBs bombard Langsa; and wave after wave after wave of Japanese strike aircraft target Langsa and the Allied troops out on the west road (John doesn't send aircraft to Sabang due to AA). This definitely has the feel of "climactic moment approaching."

As noted in my previous post, I'm shifting 400 Allied AV plus an arty unit from Langsa to Sabang next turn (all three units have been in strat mode for quite some time for just this contingency). I'll shift one of the three divisions in the contested jungle hex back to Langsa to cover that base.

Yesterday was D Plus Five Months. The Allies have held out a long time. I need them to hold another month. I'm not sure they'll be able to do it though.

I've taken hard looks at whether the Allies could somehow expedite Operation Circus to move now (or very soon) with a force large enough to force John's hand - to either profit from his focus on Sumatra or to siphon off IJ assets to give the Allies a chacne to prevail in Sumatra. But I can't do it. The Allies don't have enough PP, enough divisions, enough transports, and enough carrier cover to move in the next three weeks or so. Realistically, the soonest the Alleis could get enough in position to move is 30 or 40 days. I realize that may be too late to benefit from "Sumatra Focus Bonus," but that's what it is.

But 30 or 40 days is sooner than the original original original plan, which was to move in late summer or early autumn, or even the original original plan, which was to move in early June, or even the original plan, which contemplated a best case scenario of the last of May. I'm doing everything I can, but it takes time to moves massive amounts of men and ships from farflung places ot Oz. And it takes time to accumulate PP to buy out big restricted units needed to give Operation Circus the kind of oomph required for success.

So, how long can the Alamo hold?

[Lowpe]

Was the bombing more effective with troops in SR mode?

[Canoerebel]

Oddly enough, no. Neither bombing nor bombardments bothered the troops in strat mode sitting in Langsa. And this wasn't an isolated test - all of the units underwent both forms of punishment for at least a week and in some case for a month or more. I think the jungle terrain helps ward off enemy bombs and projectiles. The three fortst here might also be an aid.

[Sangeli]

I think counting on last second reinforcements to Sabang is a very bad idea. The last thing you want are units fighting combat in 1x terrain which are not in combat mode. Especially given that Sabang has only a level 4 fort which is rather small. The units will undoubtedly suffer heavy disruption from naval bombardment and air attack without a big fort and won't be able to contribute much to the first attack. And once Japan can bring down the fort with an initial attack, the impact of bombardments will only increase. So sending reinforcements to Sabang will likely amount to sending them to a PoW camp. If you ask me, you are far off keeping those reserves dug into the jungle blocking the main roads. The latter approach will almost certainly keep the IJA tied down in Sumatra longer than rallying everyone to single very vulnerable defensive position.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This definitely has the feel of "climactic moment approaching."

Queue music Riders Of Doom...and cry 'Havoc'!

[Canoerebel]

Sangeli, you've probably missed most of the discussions going on over the past week. Scores of them addressing this very issue. The bottom line is that the Allies would be better off defending Sabang in strength than in scattering the defenses. Mind you, I haven't abandoned the far out defenses. They remain strong and show no sign of being breached. But there's no question that John's best route of victory is via coup de main, and the only realistic possibility there is to invade Sabang.

You won't have seen the many, many posts that have detailed the fact that John's bombardments, going on now since the 2/18/43 turn on a regular basis, have only affected support troops. Combat troops in the hex haven't been touched.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Since Sabang is close to John's ports of embarkation, time in transit shouldn't be a problem. Neither should supply.

Agree with transit time considerations, but I am not so sure Japan is flush with supply and can pull together a massive amount easily.
Other factors no one has mentioned:
- coast defence guns - if you have anything that can hit the inbound transports and shoot at landing craft/troops crossing the beach you can cause a lot of disruption
- weather - if the surf is high it doesn't matter how much you prepared, you lose stuff off loading and that contributes to disruption
- the inevitable luck of the dice factor - someone recently posted about landing a fully prepped division against a much smaller force on an atoll (IIRC) and the division was wiped out. Extremely bad die roll there.

How's your favour with the AE war gods? Have you been sacrificing appropriate amounts of sleep and fine libation?

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sangeli, you've probably missed most of the discussions going on over the past week. Scores of them addressing this very issue. The bottom line is that the Allies would be better off defending Sabang in strength than in scattering the defenses. Mind you, I haven't abandoned the far out defenses. They remain strong and show no sign of being breached. But there's no question that John's best route of victory is via coup de main, and the only realistic possibility there is to invade Sabang.

You won't have seen the many, many posts that have detailed the fact that John's bombardments, going on now since the 2/18/43 turn on a regular basis, have only affected support troops. Combat troops in the hex haven't been touched.

I admit I haven't followed this AAR as closely as I could so my apologies if I stated an opinion that someone else has stated. There are many posts in this AAR...

That being said, I don't buy the consensus that defending Sabang in strength is the right solution. Other people might think that way but I'm not so easily convinced. Furthermore, I'm well aware that combat troops tend to not get disrupted by bombardments but I'm not sure it would apply to units which are not in combat mode (i.e. strat or movement modes). And should John lower the forts from an attack I could see the disruption being spread to the combat ready troops as well.

Bottom line: I would not concentrate my defenders in a 1x terrain non-atoll hex with a level 4 fort that isn't protected by a river.

[poodlebrain]

So, if a coup de main fails on the D + 1, the Allies may be able to get as much as 1,000 to 1,200 AV to Sabang. Most or all of this will have 100% prep and SWPac HQ should add to the adjusted AV.

So the minimum required force for Japan to capture Sabang on D+1 would be in the 6,000 AV range without taking into account any adjustments. An early shock attack would likely be disastrous for the Japanese. So you will likely face a series of deliberate attacks that grind away at your defenses.

Without delving too deeply into the numbers the earliest the Japanese can realistically capture Sabang would be with an attack at 4:1 odds with level 2 forts. It is unrealistic to expect them to achieve 5:1 odds while you still have level 3 forts. As such, it will require a combination of reducing your forts and causing you casualties while limiting Japanese casualties before capture is possible. The question becomes how long can you prevent the conditions necessary for the Japanese to capture Sabang?

[paullus99]

I was reading through the AAR over night & opening up my own map to look over the options.

Unfortunately, based on what I'm seeing - John is in a position to land significant troops directly on Sabang, take the associated losses (including disablements) and just wait to wear down Canoe without risking much more than his ground forces.

It appears to have escaped notice of some that John has captured and developed a number of bases along Canoe's supply line into Sabang, which he can stage numerous aircraft to engage in suppressing and blockade missions. He won't even need to the KB, since each of those bases should be able to hold at least a couple of carriers worth of aircraft.

Once he's done reducing Sabang, this will trap any and all remaining Allied forces on the island, where they can either be reduced or hemmed in by a fraction of the overall force. This will allow John to move the KB and large number of assets back to a central location (Singapore is most likely) to wait for Canoe's next move.

In turn, this next move will be met with the entire KB, along with at least 10 divisions of ground troops, freed from Sumatra.

Sorry for the pessimistic view, but I am unable to find an alternative scenario which results in an Allied victory based on the current situation on the ground, air and sea.

[Canoerebel]

If this were an Uncommon Valor game focused on Sumatra, then indeed the jig would be up. But there's too much map, too much time, too many resources available to both sides. Here's part of my 4/5/43 post, just a week back:

Allied Plans: There's been alot of behind-the-scenes work going on for the past three months, which new readers may not be aware of. When we first resumed the game on January 3, 1943, it took me a couple of weeks to really get a handle on what was where and why (the result of a 2+ year hiatus in playing). by late January, the Allies had identified the next major target, but I didn't reveal anything more than that it would come out of SWPac. By late January, the Allies began switching prep on units, including 6th, 7th and 9th Australian Divisions, which at the time were mired down in a tough battle deep inside Burma (6th and 7th) or in the Arabian Sea and tentatively bound to serve as theater reserve in India (9th). Simultaneously, I changed the prep for 1st through 4th Australian Divisions, which are in Oz and restrictied, but which can be purchased for considerably less than an American division. I think all of these units are now 100% prepped, though I am not yet fully committed to the prep destinations. I do have preferences (hence the prepping), but there are also the second and third choices, in case John's reinforcement activity poses any problems in the next two months. At the same time, I had to get ships to the right pre-invasion ports, work on supply and fuel, etc. Right now, Oz has far more fuel and supplies than any point in this game. Enough to handle all offensive activity through the next campaign and probably into the autumn months.

So while most of the combat action and AAR activity for the past three months has focused almost exlusively on Sumatra, there's been a great deal of work going into the next phase of the war.

[Lecivius]

Not pessimistic. I'm worrying about the same thing. By now those 2 bases are torpedo capable. My big shock was that Japan had the lift capacity to land 6+ divisions in a single amphibious operation. But it is a game, after all [8|] The main concern is to drag this out as long as possible. Survival is secondary.

My secondary concern is where is KB? I don't think it's all here anymore. Dan blasted part of it in Singers a while ago, but the local carrier strength remained roughly the same. Those damaged carriers had to go into the dent & fender shop, and they didn't appear to come back here. I wonder if this is KB at all anymore, and not just mini-KB.

It's gonna be an interesting ride!

[Canoerebel]

As of two days ago, a stout enemy carrier force (250 fighters, 250 strike aircraft) was posted just SW of Sabang.

Sinabang and one of the Nicobars are big enough to hold and equip Netties (sizes 5 and 4) but still not enough to guarantee a shutdown of Sabang. If John withdraws KB, the Allied Death Star can take position NW of Sinabang, say at a range of 12 hexes or so, and ward off any enemy strikes will providing cover for fast Allied combat ships that can then sprint to Sabang. So John has to keep Sabang suppressed (via BBs, because CAs aren't strong enough to inflict meaningful damage). John may not see it this way. He may rely on his LBA to impose an embargo on Sabang. But I think I can get the base operational again if he does. And if it's operational even for a day or two, the jig is up. The Allies have accumulated so much fighter strength - finally replenishable with Hellcats online - that John will have a tough time closing it again.

The timetable is what's most interesting to me. John isn't working on my timetable, of course, but he has to invade Sabang if he wants to wind down affairs in time to free up these assets to make a difference in Operation Circus. Once Circus begins he's going to need his assets in both places at the same time.

[Lecivius]

"As of two days ago, a stout enemy carrier force (250 fighters, 250 strike aircraft) was posted just SW of Sabang. "

If the sighting is accurate (big if) that is roughly just shy of 2/3 of the Japanese carrier strength.

I keep thinking on that intel on the division to Medan. I'm pretty sure this destination is a misdirect, and this is part of the inbound invasion. If so, he's probably less than a week out. Next few days are gut check time

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


The timetable is what's most interesting to me. John isn't working on my timetable, of course, but he has to invade Sabang if he wants to wind down affairs in time to free up these assets to make a difference in Operation Circus. Once Circus begins he's going to need his assets in both places at the same time.

This is the key that I think everyone is missing. Circus should demand KB's attention. The thing about retaking Sabang is that until it is done, the operation pretty much demands that KB be near by. Considering Sabang on it own merits, then yes the Japanese player should be able to take it back. But if the Allied player does not lose his head and screw up, then a point is reached where multiple axis of attack can be considered. Dan is reaching this point. Time to sit back and enjoy the show-wherever it is...