OT: Corona virus

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Rats to you: At this place, it's a menu, not an insult

CANTON, China -- Rats are all over the "Jia Lu" Restaurant. Rats in the kitchen. Rats on diners' plates. Rats between their chopsticks.

There's braised rat meat with roast pork and garlic. There's rat in black bean sauce. There's crispy fried rat. There's stewed rat.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xp ... story.html

Black Sabbath have a recipe for Rat Salad.

[MakeeLearn]

Newly discovered coronavirus mutation could threaten vaccine race, study says
April 14, 2020


https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/newly-fou ... tudy-says/


"Scientists say they have discovered the first evidence of a “significant” mutation of the coronavirus — raising concerns that strides made toward a vaccine so far could become “futile,” according to a new study.

The researchers, who isolated a strain of the virus from a sample collected in India in January, said the mutation appeared to make the bug less able to bind to a receptor on human cells called ACE2, an enzyme found in the lungs.

The discovery of this mutation “raises the alarm that the ongoing vaccine development may become futile in future epidemic if more mutations were identified,” the researchers said, according to Newsweek. The study, which was published on biorxiv.org on Saturday, has not yet been peer-reviewed."

[Sammy5IsAlive]

New York City has released mortality statistics for March 11 - April 13.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloa ... 142020.pdf

According to the brief BBC report that linked to it when they talk about a cause of death 'equivalent' to Covid-19 they are talking about people who died with 'respiritory symptoms' but I'm not sure where they got that as the page itself does not define equivalent. I'd suggest that the 'probables' are likely an overestimate.

Whichever way you apportion it they are reporting a total from all causes of 18,500 in 33 days - 560/day. Google isn't being particularly helpful in finding total deaths pa for either the state or for the city by way of comparision. The closest I've got is the CDCs stats for the ten leading causes of deaths for New York State for 2017 which came to 122k deaths or c.330/day for a population of c.19 million, of which c.8.5m live in New York City. Even if you allow for a higher proportion of deaths in winter than summer I think you could be fairly confident in suggesting that the overall death rate in NYC has at least doubled compared to 2017.

[MakeeLearn]

Trump calls for halt to US funding for World Health Organization amid coronavirus outbreak
23 mins ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... li=BBnb7Kz


"The Trump administration will halt funding to the World Health Organization as it evaluates the agency’s “role in severely mismanaging” the coronavirus pandemic, President Donald Trump announced Tuesday.

“Today I’m instructing my administration to halt funding of the World Health Organization while a review is conducted to assess the World Health Organization’s role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus,” Trump said at a White House press conference."

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Trump calls for halt to US funding for World Health Organization amid coronavirus outbreak
23 mins ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... li=BBnb7Kz


"The Trump administration will halt funding to the World Health Organization as it evaluates the agency’s “role in severely mismanaging” the coronavirus pandemic, President Donald Trump announced Tuesday.

“Today I’m instructing my administration to halt funding of the World Health Organization while a review is conducted to assess the World Health Organization’s role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus,” Trump said at a White House press conference."

Good.

[MakeeLearn]

CDC, FEMA have created a plan to reopen America. Here’s what it says.
32 mins ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... li=BBnb7Kz


"A team of government officials — led by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — has created a public health strategy to combat the coronavirus and reopen parts of the country."

"The plan lays out three-phases: Preparing the nation to reopen with a national communication campaign and community readiness assessment until May 1.

Then, the effort, through May 15, would involve ramping up manufacturing of testing kits and personal protective equipment and increasing emergency funding.

Then staged reopenings would begin, depending on local conditions. The plan does not give specific dates for reopenings but specified “not before May 1.” "

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

New York City has released mortality statistics for March 11 - April 13.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloa ... 142020.pdf

According to the brief BBC report that linked to it when they talk about a cause of death 'equivalent' to Covid-19 they are talking about people who died with 'respiritory symptoms' but I'm not sure where they got that as the page itself does not define equivalent. I'd suggest that the 'probables' are likely an overestimate.

Whichever way you apportion it they are reporting a total from all causes of 18,500 in 33 days - 560/day. Google isn't being particularly helpful in finding total deaths pa for either the state or for the city by way of comparision. The closest I've got is the CDCs stats for the ten leading causes of deaths for New York State for 2017 which came to 122k deaths or c.330/day for a population of c.19 million, of which c.8.5m live in New York City. Even if you allow for a higher proportion of deaths in winter than summer I think you could be fairly confident in suggesting that the overall death rate in NYC has at least doubled compared to 2017.

Here are some interesting facts about the New York City population:

With a July 2015 population of 8,550,405, New York is the most populous city in the United States, more than twice the size of the second largest city, Los Angeles.
About 1 in every 38 people living in the United States resides in New York City.
New York has the highest population density of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people per square mile.
.
.
.
There is a death in New York City every 9.1 minutes.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/plan ... facts.page

[MakeeLearn]

Hmmmm...

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

New York City has released mortality statistics for March 11 - April 13.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloa ... 142020.pdf

According to the brief BBC report that linked to it when they talk about a cause of death 'equivalent' to Covid-19 they are talking about people who died with 'respiritory symptoms' but I'm not sure where they got that as the page itself does not define equivalent. I'd suggest that the 'probables' are likely an overestimate.

Whichever way you apportion it they are reporting a total from all causes of 18,500 in 33 days - 560/day. Google isn't being particularly helpful in finding total deaths pa for either the state or for the city by way of comparision. The closest I've got is the CDCs stats for the ten leading causes of deaths for New York State for 2017 which came to 122k deaths or c.330/day for a population of c.19 million, of which c.8.5m live in New York City. Even if you allow for a higher proportion of deaths in winter than summer I think you could be fairly confident in suggesting that the overall death rate in NYC has at least doubled compared to 2017.

Here are some interesting facts about the New York City population:

With a July 2015 population of 8,550,405, New York is the most populous city in the United States, more than twice the size of the second largest city, Los Angeles.
About 1 in every 38 people living in the United States resides in New York City.
New York has the highest population density of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people per square mile.
.
.
.
There is a death in New York City every 9.1 minutes.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/plan ... facts.page

Wow crazy stuff . Density is over twice than in London (roughly similar populations). Only just below that of Delhi (30 million (!) people at 29k/sq mile - you can see why they were so keen to lock everything down despite low case numbers).

I do agree that density is likely a significant driver although not necessarily deterministic.

It is probably also worth pointing out that in the longer run, even if other US cities drop that 100% increase in overall mortality to 10% that still equates to a very big number of added deaths. I'm not saying that is inevitable - Germany and S. Korea have shown the way. Just that that outcome remains on the cards if things aren't done right.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Anyone know how much the Chinese Sovereign Wealth fund is? About $1T Even if you confiscated every cent it would not come close to the damage done to the world.

The IMF estimates this recession will be the worst recession since 1930

This recession is fundamentally different, at least for the time being. Because it's engineered, not structural.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Dan,

Tried to reply to your PM, but your inbox is full......

Probably feature, not bug...

[Encircled]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Anyone know how much the Chinese Sovereign Wealth fund is? About $1T Even if you confiscated every cent it would not come close to the damage done to the world.

The IMF estimates this recession will be the worst recession since 1930

This recession is fundamentally different, at least for the time being. Because it's engineered, not structural.

Aye, OBR predictions over here (ignored by the government over Brexit forecasts btw) are being seized on as "good" because they predict a very rapid bounceback.

Obviously everyone is worried by headlines like "Worse than the great depression" but the lessons learnt (and especially those learnt in the last financial crisis) mean that its going to be bad, but not as bad as feared.

Regarding withdrawal funding for the WHO, that is a decision that should be taken after the crisis is over, rather than during it, as that leaves quite a void in the only global health organisation in the middle of a global pandemic.

[Canoerebel]

Yesterday evening I watched a YouTube how-to video and then cut my own hair, using scissors and comb. A first.

[Encircled]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yesterday evening I watched a YouTube how-to video and then cut my own hair, using scissors and comb. A first.

This thread is useless without pics!

[Canoerebel]

I don't have a smartphone!

My wife, who is my most honest critic, said I did a pretty good job.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Hmmmm...

[:D]

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't have a smartphone!

My wife, who is my most honest critic, said I did a pretty good job.

Did you just leave a mullet in back? That is hard to cut

[Canoerebel]

Yeah. I couldn't reach back there. From the back, I could be one of the 4Him quartet, 1990, Birmingham.

[Canoerebel]

That's me, at left. Cap on right.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Chinese immigrant population in the US (non-citizens)

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/program ... litan-area

The data is bad. They have nothing for my area for Taiwan and for China but there are lots of people from those places. I do not have numbers.