Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[ny59giants]

While your busy defending the "fatherland"...sorry wrong theater of war.[:D]
 
I'm looking ahead at lack of enough Kawasaki engines to met production demands. We have 200 engines per month being produced, but need 473 total when the Tony-c com on line in less than 2 months (-273/month [X(]).
I hope you plan to stop the Tony-b production and switch them over to R&D for a early '44 plane (your choice). That will still mean we need another 141 engines per month to produce the 407 Tony-c (do you think we need that much of just one airframe?).
Thus, on your next turn, please expand the Kawasaki factorys at Fukuoda by 20 and at Nagoya by 40. This will keep us short by about 80 engines per month, but it gets us closer to our goal.
 
We have a good surplus of Mitsubishi engines and the difference between what will be needed for Nakajima (current plus R&D) is less than 100 engines and will addressed afetr the Kawasaki issue is closer to being fixed.
 
This WitPTracker is nice to aid a novice like me get a better handle on production.
 
Minister Benoit

[John 3rd]

OK. All this dilly-dallying has driven me nuts. Just watched the August 27th turn and he lands at TORI SHIMA with 650 troops! Pardon me but WHAT THE HE**??!! Why land there? It is 5 hexes from Toyko has AF ZERO and Port 1...



I'm rather apoplectic at the moment...



Thoughts???

[1EyedJacks]

Jeepers John!

That is really strange on the part of your opponent... With all of the sorties he's been flying on your TFs and with his TFs so close to your strength while so far away from his support...

What can you sorty from Japan? Do you have subs that can close the back-door?

I think I'd be on Dan like stink-on-roadkill...

Can you attack with your CVs driving on Iwo Jima from the east and use land-based air units from Japan/Iwo? It would be cool to get him between the hammer and the anvil - I just don't know if you can do it quickly.

If you have fighters @ Iwo and they sweep, they'll fatigue his air units for anything you can through from Japan and your CVs - right?

With all of the allied TFs I'm not sure your TBs/DBs/LBs will target his carriers on the 1st attack...

Patrol aircraft have the legs to help id his units and some of those have torpedoes - right?

Just curious - what would happen if you put some of your fighters on Naval attack @ 100ft? Talk about a target-rich environment... His CAP will probably be at 10k - I wonder if they'de even engage fighters coming in hugging the water... [8|]

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: 1EyedJacks

Jeepers John!

That is really strange on the part of your opponent... With all of the sorties he's been flying on your TFs and with his TFs so close to your strength while so far away from his support...

What can you sorty from Japan? Do you have subs that can close the back-door?

I think I'd be on Dan like stink-on-roadkill...

Can you attack with your CVs driving on Iwo Jima from the east and use land-based air units from Japan/Iwo? It would be cool to get him between the hammer and the anvil - I just don't know if you can do it quickly.

If you have fighters @ Iwo and they sweep, they'll fatigue his air units for anything you can through from Japan and your CVs - right?

With all of the allied TFs I'm not sure your TBs/DBs/LBs will target his carriers on the 1st attack...

Patrol aircraft have the legs to help id his units and some of those have torpedoes - right?

Just curious - what would happen if you put some of your fighters on Naval attack @ 100ft? Talk about a target-rich environment... His CAP will probably be at 10k - I wonder if they'de even engage fighters coming in hugging the water... [8|]

If he puts his fighters on 100ft nav attack then he will lose 50%+ to CAP and the rest to flak for NO GAIN. A couple of 20mm cannon hits on the armor of a CA, CL or if he´s lucky on a DD won´t do him any good. Using fighters (or any other aircraft) on 100ft nav attack doesn´t make sense in the game IMO. The only reason would be to attack barges or PTs.

If he would lose 100% of those fighters on escort for the result that they took down one enemy fighter, then those fighters would have already achieved more than if they would do nav attacks at 100 ft.

[John 3rd]

I sat on the turn overnight to try and THINK about what he is doing.  Simply makes no sense and it infuriates me to watch!

What do I have in the area?  I moved from my assembly areas in Mukden and Osaka about 100 Fighters, 150 Army Bombers, and 75 Kates to Tokyo.  Additionally, I have sortied the 3 CVL/6 CVE at Osaka, ordered them to hug the coast, and get to Toyko.  They bring 250 aircraft.  I plan to Recon Tori Shima and see is there is CAP.  If there is not, I will order a strike set at that range and see...

As to warships, I have just the escorts around the CVL/CVE:  2 CA, 4 CL, and about 15 DD.  Could fling them at Tori Shima as well...

Any more ideas gang?

WHY would he land there?  Hell--My small BF managed to hold him off behind Sz-3 Ports!  Won't happen again though.  Iwo Jima would be a far better target if this was his true objective.  He cannot do ANYTHING with this rock.  It has Port 1, AF 0, and is useless...

Grrrrr...

Edit: Just noticed that we have sailed over 10,000 hits on the AAR! That is pretty cool and thanks for everyone reading!

[USSAmerica]

 (Still holding my tongue, but loving the AAR's) [8D]

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: USS America

 (Still holding my tongue, but loving the AAR's) [8D]

Yup. Same here. [:D]

[Nemo121]

Simply makes no sense and it infuriates me to watch!

 
A tutored swordsman need fear only two opponents;
 
a) A superlative swordsman who is simply far superior in talent and experience and
 
b) those who have received little tutelage in the art of swordsmanship.
 
Of these the most feared would be the untutored as a superlative swordsman will be known by his manner of movement, preparation etc and so his ability will come as no surprise - there is a chance to apologise and survive such duels or at least, anticipate the timbre of his moves even if one cannot match their quality - whereas the untutored man, not having the benefit of tutoring which has knocked all the "stupid ideas" out of his head, will take it into his head to do things which are so full of flaws that they cannot succeed .... IF they are guarded against.  The problem being that since you are tutored you are trained to fight other tutored swordsmen and thus do not face such "obvious and crazy" gambits often.... and thus do not guard against them.
 
In that dichotomy lies the reason that many a tutored swordsman died whispering "But that's crazy, it should never have worked."
 
I trust that my point is clear and hope it is somewhat helpful.

[Nemo121]

As to Tori Shima...

You are thinking of territory and ways he can use that to hurt you. This is a uni-dimensional view which is unfortunate. I would suggest to you that you look at it from his point of view.

Tori Shima is pointless in terms of its immediate benefit to any naval or aerial US combat strength in battle around Iwo Jima SO its capture must not be directly related to adding more fighters or ship to the battle.

So let's run through some of our Soviet force multipliers then...
Mass ( doesn't increase his mass, doesn't allow basing of land fighters or add ships ).

Recon - Allows some minimal increase in recon capability vis a vis your fleet sortieing from Tokyo.

Simultaneity - Tori Shima isn't required for simultaneity on his invasion of Iwo Jima --- which is obviously coming next.

Surprise - It does make you wonder but it isn't a strong enough position to make you wonder so much as to unbalance your entire front.

Logistics - Well, when you strike deep you need to ensure your logistics lines. You can be sure he has brought along a lot of supplies, AOs etc BUT unless I am mistaken he cannot replenish his ammunition bunkers at sea this early in the game.

He must, undoubtedly, be expecting your fleet to sortie and he will be expecting it to sortie against what he first invades. He also knows Iwo Jima will take a little while to fall. So, I think if you look at it from HIS position it is reasonable to take Tori Shima... Let me paint a picture:

1. Take Tori Shima. Base Surface Combat TFs there and LRCAP with CVs based between Tori Shima and Iwo Jima. Group amphibious TFs with the CVs.

2. Await your aerial attacks on the ships at Tori Shima ( which his LRCAP should shatter ) and also await your night naval attacks. Each day he replenishes his surface combat TF AAA and anti-ship gun ammunition from Tori Shima ( In effect due to the game design HE can stay on station and fight for longer than your ships once he takes Tori Shima in spite of the fact that Tori Shima is in your back yard ).

3. Yes he will take casualties BUT his only choice is WHERE he fights ur fleet, not if he fights it. And given that lack of choice he would obviously MUCH prefer to fight it at Tori Shima than Iwo Jimo. In effect he will pull the teeth of ur surface strike fleet and air force and ensure that you don't have a surface strike fleet left to sortie to Iwo Jima when he groups around that island and lands there. Remember that if you got a SC TF into the Iwo Jima hex while he was landing you would probably force some amphibious TFs to pull away from Iwo Jima, disrupting his landings and hugely increasing his casualties as you'd have to take another day or two of opposed atoll landings.


Overall taking Tori Shima seems, to me, to make a lot of sense but ONLY if he is going to invade Iwo Jima. My advice to you is to ignore Tori Shima and to focus everything you have on flying troops into Iwo Jima and gathering KB to make a fight of it near Iwo Jima. If you can gather your surface fleet in the Iwo Jima hex ( under cover of massive IJA fighter CAP ) then so much the better. An evasive high-speed routing first south-west and then east would seem the best bet for actually reaching Iwo Jima.


Lastly I would say to you to review this definition of strategy/higher operational art. A campaign strategy is comprised of a series of acceptances, forcings and declinations of battle such that each acceptance, forcing or declination furthers the strategic goal. You are aggressive and rushing to fight at Tori Shima BUT what is your STRATEGIC goal and is that BEST SERVED by accepting surface action at Tori Shima ( when you do have the option of declining it in order to accept OR FORCE a surface action elsewhere ... e.g. the night his landing forces begin landing at Iwo Jima ).

[John 3rd]

Damn Nemo...that is masterful work.  Welcome to the 'Advisor' club within the AAR!  [:D]

I came to the same conclusion though in not so masterfully written a manner.  Actions taken:

1.  I have ordered a limited strike on naval forces at a range of FIVE hexes from Tokyo.  If he has units at Tori Shima then I will take a swipe at them.

2.  Did NOT sortie units from Tokyo to attack Tori Shima.  I think I will sortie the CVLs/CVEs NE, then East, and finally cut in behind his forces heading for a rendezvous with the KB.

3.  Formed up the KB in Truk.  3 CV TF and 2 STF were created and will begin moving to Saipan on the next turn.

4.  Ordered a Fuel TF (59,000 Fuel) to change its destination from Truk to Saipan.  This way I have plenty of fuel on hand for operations.

5.  Upgraded another Daitai to Jacks, ditto for a Daitai of Betty I to II, and am rapidly watching my A6M5 production ramp up as well as Jack, Judy, and Jill.

6. Hopefully snuck in two Sentai of bombers to Iwo Jima and set them to range zero.

There should be some aerial action this coming turn...

Combat Report
August 28, 1943

Tori Shima
Taken by a Marine Para Btn and 147th RCT.  Why?  Who cares...

Chichi Jima
Began a landing on this desolate rock...  Why?  Who cares...

Response
Already detailed the important action.

Rangoon/Moulmein
Another attack lowered Forts down to 6.  Am evacuating as fast as possible.  Have already pulled ALL support troops and about 50% of the infantry.  each day gives me about 10% of the Infantry moved to Moulmein.  Knocked down a bunch (15-20) of his Liberators that were set for Naval Attack this turn.

Adelaide/Broken Hill
Dan withdrew from these hexes!  [:'(][:'(][:'(]  The Aussie MLR holds again!

Brisbane
I have began to load an Infantry Division from here to be shipped north.  This still leaves me with 1 Inf Div to hold the town against all but a determined attack.

Australia Note
I am pulling out nearly 75,000 resources from here every 2-3 weeks right now.  It is a long haul but every convoy that makes it is a bonus for the longterm health of the Japanese economy.

[John 3rd]

The die is now cast. Dan has landed in MASSIVE proportions at Iwo Jima. Why? I couldn't begin to explain or even understand...

The title of this posting should certainly serve to get Dan's attention! I want him thinking that I am coming right at him NOW! [:D][:D]

I'm not but it should help raise his paranoia level.



From: Colonel Ikezama Yoshito
Commander 9th Infantry Brigade
Iwo Jima

May it Please His Majesty I beg to report on the American landing on Sulphur Island. At dawn an Invasion Force of unbelieveable numbers filled the ocean around our small island. A TF of 3 Battleships attempted to bombard our mostly complete bunkers. There was no effect upon us from this bombardment.

A total of TEN seperate Task Forces began disgorging their troops just after dawn. As they moved into position I--personally--counted 78 underwater mine explosions on freightors, 18 explosions on troop transports, and a single explosion on one of the American LSTs! Troops were being rescued left and right from terribly wounded ships! It was glorious to watch.

Our minefields remain largely intact and expect more damage to be wreaked upon the American shipping throughout the next several days.

The High Command was quite wise to divert the entire Infantry Division that was to land here last week. There is no way that our forces and it could hold off the Americans. We have taken count of over 7 American Army and Marine Divisions taking part in the landing. An additional 14 units have been identified and I am forwarding that list to you in another communique.

I expect that our garrision of 18,000 men will be overrun tomorrow. May the Empire last 1,000 years! BANZAI!

Col. Ikezama



Combat Report
August 29, 1943

Iwo Jima's minefields registered 97 seperate explosions as the Americans landed! How about that... Dan is landing with a force that is beyond reckoning. Now that it has been wasted upon this island, I am quite happy that he chose to land here instead of Luzon or the Marianas. I would have lost those targets as well.

With the damage inflicted by my mines as well as the rest that will certianly occur over the next couple of days. I think I have firmed up a plan for making him pay for all this. The closest port that his ships can disband into is MIDWAY! I have 16 SS moving into the area starting tomorrow and ALL my CVs will move to cutoff his retreat. Someone mentioned earlier that either I should damage his CVs or his AK/AP to force a retreat. I will do that but only by taking out as much of his shipping as possible while he hovers in his newfound territory.

This might truly be interesting and fun...

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
August 30, 1943
 
TO:  Imperial High Command
FROM:  Col. Ikezawa, C-in-C  Iwo Jima
 
May it Please the High Command Japanese forces still defend this island in the name of His Majesty Emporer Hirohito.  We are totally surrounded by hundreds of enemy vessels and are being bombarded night and day.  Though the bombardments haven't caused much damage, morale of our men is suffering. 
 
I have withdrawn our troops to the Fighter Strip and Mount Surabachi.  Many thanks for the Transport pilots who braved their lives to lift out vital staffs from our units.  I know many of our Topsy's were shot down by enemy fighters.
 
Surprisingly, the enemy has not seriously attacked us.  He satisfied himself with a heavy bombardment and that is all.  Considering all that we can see mounting up on the beaches, when the attack does come it will be massive.  We hold our ground in the best tradition of the Empire!
 
My observers spotted another 30 mine explosions today as ships continued to unload.  We personally witnessed nearly a dozen enemy ships sink just miles off shore.
 
Perhaps I will be able to send another update tomorrow!
 
Col. Ikezawa
 
 
 

[USSAmerica]

John, if you guys are not going to be playing turns over the long weekend, it will be a long one, indeed!  [:D]

[John 3rd]

We usually play 1-2 a day on the weekend.  During the week we get in 4-5 a day.
 

[ny59giants]

Houston...we have "another" problem. [:(]

Admiral John,
Looks like our ship production needs to be adjusted [8|] per the newest version of WitPTracker. [&o]

See screenshot for explanation. which of the BBs do we halt??

[ny59giants]

I just got a PM from Damian, so I may have jumped on this too soon. But I shall learn...I hope. [:D]

Maybe Damian can pick a ship here and explain what each column means for a novice like me.

[John 3rd]

If we have to, we will slow the CVs since they won't be finished until the end of 1943.  Those BB have a much more pressing need right now.  I have bombardment targets sitting (literally) at 5-6-7 hexes away from Tokyo.  Those are ripe to be hit with my BB Hybrids and/or Musashi.
 
When you find out let me know.
 
Have to mention that I had a very successful Raid on Tori Shima by a 2 CA, 2 CL, and 3 DD TF!  Had PTs and AKs sinking left and right for NO LOSS!  Will try to do a combat log report tomorrow morning...
 
Feel like I have to whittle the American Fleet down by little jabs instead of a massive attack!  Baby steps...
 

[FeurerKrieg]

Stop all your subs, and don't accelerate any carriers that are in the 'building' stage. If delay is less than durability *10, then put those on normal, since it cost 3 times the normal SYP to build. But make sure all your CVs that are delay greater than dur*10 are accelerating, that only costs 2 times normal SYP.

As your BBs finish, that will free up points that you can put back into those nearer term CVs. Oh, and don't accelerate Taiho - very expensive to do so.

[n01487477]

Sorry John, hope you don't mind me explaining what I see in the shipBuilding... in this forum.
OK. some thing you need to understand first
1. Ships are able to build if their durability * 10 < delay. These ships can be
accelerated, at triple the durability cost. or it means that "Start Building" is (-) numbers (how many day it has been building)

2. Ships not in the first group, but can be built at accelerated if durability * 30 < delay. The
cost to accelerate these equals durability. Sorry Feurer King, you are wrong about this, it's not twice.
look for Start Building (+) numbers = So Days until it will start. (John has none here)

3. Ships Durability * 10 = the normal number of days to build a vessel. Also adding Delay and Start Building give total build time.

4.Build Points/Aggregate - just gives a running total as you go down the list.

5.The other columns are to manually calculate ... via a drop down on the CalBr column.

Onto the analysis at hand. John has 1366 Naval Points per turn, 2 surplus from the previous round, and if all were to build he'd need 2113 points, a deficit of 747 points. Next turn he should have a surplus of 18 points.

Status:
Building: means this ship will be built next turn, reducing it's delay.
Pending: it is due to build, but there are not enough available points.
Queued: Delay is more than 10x Durability (so if less than x30 they can be accelerated - see pt 2)

So SS I-12 is the last ship to build using 33, for a total of 1350.
John has 1366+2 = 1368 and is one point shy of building the next boat ... which I can't see from the screen shot.

I'd stop accelerating CV Aso and Kasagi (points used 438 -> 146 = 292)... they will still build next turn (their Start Building is negative), and accelerate Ise. (105 ->315 = 210) and still have 82 points to play with, to accelerate some DD's or maybe let some subs build.

Additionally:
Testing shows that the points are calculated down the DB list, when there
are not enough points to build a ship, it is not built and if there are surplus
points, these can be used for any other ships down the list that 'can' build,
provided there are enough points available. Unfortunately going down the
list from this point does not always work correctly, as can be seen the
occasional anomaly. Future releases will show what ships have built that
turn.

I hope this clears it up somewhat, although maybe I should re-write this ... Michael you can use the drop down on CalBr to play with the permutations ...

[USSAmerica]

OK, I'm sold!&nbsp; Even as an AFB, I'm downloading and playing with Tracker this afternoon!&nbsp; [8D]
&nbsp;
...after I catch up on John and Dan's AAR's, that is.&nbsp; [;)][:D]