Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: bradfordkay

"It seems Chez may have planned on Brave Sir Robin (and maybe has only faced Sir Robin to this point). Confronted with a laager defense, he has pulled back and seems to be flumixed as to how to procede. I always loved the word laager and as it is a Dutch word it seems appropo. "

I can assure you that this is not the case. While I have not brought the British 18th Division or the AVG into the SRA I have always tried to find places where my NEI troops can stand and make themselves counted as tough fighters. In our CHS game Palembang ended up 80% demolished by the end of the fight, so in our present game I decided not to put so many forces into that location (the western Sumatra forces fought for that oil port up there instead). In retrospect this was a mistake, because the die rolls did not fall in my favor this time and Palembang was captured with no damage! I do wonder how Dan managed to transfer the CD units from Tarakan to Palembang, as I thought that those boys were permanently restricted.

I alway heavily invest in USAAF and RAF forces for the defense of the NEI but his Betties and the KB have managed to decimate my naval forces in the region, though not without cost to the baby KB.

That touches on two things that are so great about WiTP/WiTp-AE

1. Both sides are able to redo the war without making the critical RL mistakes. Yes, for Japan we know that dividing KB was a huge mistake. As Allies, you don't have to send force Z to its death and you don't have to send the 18th UK to die at Singers.

2. The games are replayable. Each reiteration provides new opportunites for untried strategies and approaches. No two games are alike.

Now, how cool is that?

[Canoerebel]

Brad, the CD at Tarakan can be bought with political points.

I got started late in finding and retrieving CD units and will be missing one or two. I overlooked the one at Ambon until it was too late to get it. I found the one at Tarakan, paid for it, and moved it to Oosthaven. Same for the one at Kuching (or it may begin at Singkawang). There's one that begins in western Sumatra. It's still walking across Sumatra and will reach Padang in a week or two. From there I may try to move it by ship to Benkolen. I also moved one of the Java CD forces over to Merak. There's another at Tjilitjap that's a static unit.

I have several Marine CD forces on the way from Eastern USA to Capetown, but that's a long journey and I don't know if they will make it in time.

Right now, I have two CD forces at Oosthaven and one at Merak. The next one will go to Benkolen. If I get more after that, I'll send the next one to Palembang. My thinking is that Steve won't elect for a direct landing at Palembang due to the massive size of the force there. He's more likely to try Oosthaven or, if he waits until after Singers falls, Benkolen.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/42

Eastern DEI: No sign of Mini-KBs. A small IJN CL/DD force fought with some PT boats, sinking one (this kind of small action has been occurring regularly). Still no enemy moves on Java, Borneo, or Timor. Odd, odd, odd.

Western DEI: Japan is reinforcing Singapore finally. The first (and only) attack was on January 10 and really messed up Imperial Guards. The Allies have 975 AV behind three forts with 32k supplies, so I'm hoping I have another month before Singers falls. (Singapore fell on 2/12 in my game with Q-Ball, freeing Japan to begin Phase II, which started with the invasion of Ceylon on 3/7/42.) In many games, it might be wise to extract the two Aussie brigades that start in Malaya, but under the narrow circumstances of this game, I'm glad I sent them to Singers.

China: The Japanese have 25 units at Changsha and are moving the stack that was in front of Henyang that way. This could be a feint, a consolidated move on Changsha, or prepatations for a strike at the base in between (Siangtan). Again, I have the interior lines, so I think I can counter any move for the near future. On the Changsha/Hengyang front, I currently have about 8,500 AV. Steve will have to bring alot more than he has to punch through here, I think. However, I have been shifting some troops from the Sian front over to Chungking in preparation for reinforcing this area (including Chengte, which is currently weak). I've left Sian weak, but the forested hexes to the east and northeast are strongly guarded. Chinese troops behind good forts in forested hexes do well, so I think this front is safe for a long time to come.

[bradfordkay]

" Still no enemy moves on Java, Borneo, or Timor. Odd, odd, odd."

Other than the lack of landings on Borneo, it doesn't seem quite so odd to me. In our present game he didn't land on Sumatra, Java or Timor until early April. Steve is methodical in his advances. You threw a shoe in the works by catching a couple of his early long bombs unescorted (I wish he had done that in our present game, but in our CHS game the Enterprise and Lexington caught some fast MLs headed for Canton Island on the 11th of December and annihilated them), so that has slowed him somewhat but so far not much behind what I see as a normal advance (for Steve).

[Canoerebel]

I think it's odd because Borneo has so much oil, is so easy to take, and has forward air bases that should be a pain in the rear end for enemy shipping in and near Oosthaven, Batavia, and Soerbaja. Attend to that and he'd have more info about what was going on. In turn, he'd slow down the Allies and he'd be able to react quickly and more decisevly before things were getting out of hand.

Japan needs to move fast to keep the Allies off balance. Don't let the Allies get comfortable and prepare strongpoints.

This may all be part of a well-orchestrated plan by Steve to entice me to come out to the end of the limb so that he can saw it off behind me, but I don't think it is. I think he's undecided and uncertain and floundering around without knowing exactly what he wants to do or could do. Given that, I would expect him to pounce on the easy-but-important bases like those on Borneo. That's why I'm so surprised.

[bradfordkay]

"I think he's undecided and uncertain and floundering around without knowing exactly what he wants to do or could do. Given that, I would expect him to pounce on the easy-but-important bases like those on Borneo. That's why I'm so surprised."

I think that you are making a mistake if you think that he is "floundering around without knowing exactly what he wants to do". I think that his lack of invading Borneo can be attributed to two causes: One, your interception of his Sinkawang invasion which either destroyed or mauled the units planned for that location; and two, an apparent decision to leave the rest of Borneo alone until later. I say "apparent decision' because in his games against me the Borneo airbases were early targets so the lack of an invasion here must have been planned this time.

Again, I believe that you threw his timing off with those early interceptions but I don't think that he is without a plan. This is only my opinion, but I feel that I know his playing style better than anyone here...

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, you have a much better feel for him than I do, so I value your input. I'm know also that I had better remain on my toes rather than getting too comfortable.

If Force Z is responsible for his aborting of the Singkawang landing, that may have been the most important engagement of the war to date. It's made possible (or at least much easier) the great number of Allied movements around eastern Sumatra and western Java for the past two months. I lost at least two CL in that engagement, Renown and Prince of Wales are still in shipyards, Boise is just out of the yards, and Mauritius will be out in ten days. So it was a tough battle. I knew it had turned him back, but I didn't think it had savaged his troop carriers to that extent.

[paullus99]

You mentioned his reinforcement of his Singapore attack force - what has he brought to the table?

He might be methodical, but he's consistently underestimating the amount of force necessary to take what he's aiming at - which bodes well for the future (since the time it has taken him to reinforce Singapore and the PI has given you valuable time to prepare elsewhere).

[Canoerebel]

He has 31 units at Singapore and four units across the causeway. I don't know what the newcomers are yet, but as soon as they enter the hex I'll bombard to find out.

As regular readers know, I have stripped India of many good units to reinforce Sumatra. This has created a temporary, though rather prolonged, dearth of power there. American reinforcements are on the way, and I currently believe that even under a worst case scenario, India will be in good shape by the time the enemy could arrive, if that day should ever come. One of the keys to the defense is the American Army's 27th Division. Originally, I had that parked at Seattle prepping for Shikuka. I've changed prep to Bombay and the unit is on the way to the East Coast, thence to Capetown, thence to India. It won't arrive until April or early May. By then, the equivalent of two American divisions will be posted in India. If they aren't needed there, they will form the nucleus for possible Allied offensive operations in Burma or Malaya.

[Canoerebel]

2/15/42

A little lull has fallen over the DEI as Steve no doubt prepares for his next move - he's gathering troops at Kendari, so I know it's coming. But I'm using the lull to reinforce.

Western DEI: There's been a bit of a lull in reinforcement arrivals, but that will pick up again in a few days as more Australian troops and two big British base force units are in transit through the Bay of Bengal. I spent a few political points today to buy a Kiwi engineer unit at Dunedin (it's going to Lahat, Sumatra) and a Dutch "Mariner" unit at Batavia (for some reason, I wasn't able to transport it even though units assigned to the same HQ could be air-lifted to Palembang). The three Aussie brigades on the way will be posted at Benkolen to bring that base up to a reasonable level of defense (it will have an AV of about 500-600). An Indian brigade will depart Madras in four days or so - it may reinforce Palembang. A bunch of RN BBs have arrived at Capetown recently. All are on the way to the theater. The American carriers are transiting the Great Australian Bight. They may refuel at Perth in a few days. There is a risk of them being spotted here by an enemy sub, but I need to top off the fuel tanks so that they can remain on post for weeks if necessary. The Allies will use combat ships and carriers to "break some eggs" if it will play havoc with a Japanese invasion force. But I really hope to use my carriers to (1) ambush enemy BBs and/or Mini-KB, thus (2) further slowing down the enemy advance.

Eastern DEI: Nothing happening other than an obvious concentration of troops at Kendari. Timor is a likely target, but Java and NW Oz are possibilities.

SoPac: The enemy took Ocean Island today.

Phase II: I think Clark Field will fall within ten days. I think Bataan will fall soon therafter, freeing up four IJ divisions. I think Singapore will hold for awhile yet, perhaps a month. My hunch is that my opponent will move on Sumatra and/or Java with those troops, though there is a possibility he might employ them in a move on New Zealand, Fiji, or Australia. The worst thing that could happen in the next two months would be a quick capitulation of Singapore and an immediate enemy move on India, which is currently very weak. I consider that scenario very unlikely, but in the event it did happen I think the Allies would counter by ramping up operations in Sumatra and vicinity including some effort to go on the offensive. I would probably use Australian troops to help give me some additional firepower. On the other hand, if he moves for Oz in a big way, the counter might be to use the American troops bound for India in a campaign in Burma or Malaya. The situation is fluid, so there aren't definite plans yet, but I am mulling over possibilities.

[vettim89]

I really think a move on India is impossible until Sumatra is cleared. There is no way Steve could move enough supply overland to sustain an offensive tempo that could truly threaten you. If he tries to move overland, you will have plenty of warning. I would make sure you have at least one of your precious few recon Sq at Calcutta keeping a watchful eye on Burma just to hedge your bets

[Canoerebel]

2/16/42

I'm beginning to sit up straight in my chair as I sense "a convergence of the force" in the DEI.

Eastern DEI: At least one Mini-KB is docked at Kendari. The report indicates two CVL (29 fighters, 26 bombers, 60 auxilliary), 2 CS, and five BB. If this were the situation in about ten days, I would pay them a visit. (The American carriers should refuel at Perth in about two days and I already have picket ships posted here and there along the NW Oz coast). There is an IJ fast transport TF west of Makassar - probably bound for Balikpan or the adjacent base.

Western DEI: A Brit base force with engineers will arrive at Benkolen in a day or two, which will accellerate fort and airfield building. A new Indian brigade just arrived at Madras: I bought it (and an engineer unit). The two units will embark for Sumatra. I also bought a heavy AA unit at Colombo, bound for Palembang.

Capetown: Alot of American troops begin arriving in about twenty days. I have a goodly number of xAPs present, but I'm sending more from the India region, where I'm finished with most of the glut of troops that were carried to Sumatra.

Burma: The Japanese take a vacant Rangoon.

China: The Japanese have eight divisions (3, 6, 13, 34, 39, 40, 41, 35) at Changsha with at least three more (including 22 and 104) in the area. The Japanese stack bombarded showing an AV of about 5,100 facing Chinese AV of 4,900. Another 600 Chinese AV will arrive in two or three days. Based upon prior experience it would be the height of folly for the Japanese to attack, so I hope they do. More likely, Steve will look to bring reinforcements against a weaker flank, so I have to watch and have troops ready to reinforce vulnerable bases.

Convergence: The Allies should be able to orchestrate a major strike against enemy shipping in the southern DEI in about two weeks or so. The enemy has been using forward bases so that the Allies won't have to penetrate into the enemy LBA umbrella in order to strike. My major concern is to guard against blundering into the KB. Recent sightings near Noumea bode well, but the enemy has time to move his carriers just like I'm moving mine. So I'll have to be careful, but I think things are coming together as I'd like them to.

[John 3rd]

There can be no doubt that you have a golden opportunity to administer a horrific defeat upon the Japanese that they may not be able to recover from.

If I read this right you will have 4 US CVs ready for Ops--Right? Considering his rather weak force dispositions do you intend them to operate in pairs a slight distance from each other? This would maximize their kill zone when they appear.

You'll essentially have a 1-2 day opportunity before he can react and bring his LBA to a serious level of threat. Can you post a screenshot of the planned theatre of operations? Am curious as to what--exactly--he has...

[Cribtop]

I sense a convergence of the smack down approaching the IJN. Concur with John that this is a good opportunity. One of the great dangers for the Japanese is over reliance on mini KB in the DEI. You need lots of LBA coverage and eventually KB itself or you expose your moves to a USN CV strike like the one you are contemplating.

My defeat at Kuching and victory near Soerebaja in my first AAR illustrates both sides of this coin IMHO. I learned a lot from those two engagements. I was amazingly lucky not to lose the whole mini KB and an invasion TF in the former and caught the UK CVs between LBA at Makassar and KB in the Java Sea in the latter.

[Canoerebel]

CV Indomitable and CVL Hermes could join the fray (they are currently on patrol near Cocos Island). I'm not sure how I'll configure the strike, yet. I'll probably keep all the carriers in one hex (that's how I generally do things).

I'm hoping a juicy IJN combat TF or Mini-KB will sally forth on one of its missions into the Java Sea, or perhaps to cover an invasion someplace like Timor. Steve has done operations of the sort throughout the game, so it's not a long shot to hope. My carriers would thus likely remain on station southwest of Timor awaiting an opportunity. I'll use picket ships and patrol aircraft to watch out for the KB.

[John 3rd]

Thanks for the picture.

With Sumatra strong and a reasonable number of aircraft there (I assume the better Allied strike planes are there?), I wouldn't go near it. Think you are fairly safe there with the two Brit CVs to backstop any sort of minor move by the Japs in to the area.

Eastern DEI presents the real oppertunity. If you can be in position SW of Koepang then you be in great shape to SMASH any sort of force moving in on Timor or the small islands moving west towards Java. Excellent ambush site to spring from.

What is your fuel situation like? Do you have some decent AOs? What base do you intend to use for the CVs?

[Cribtop]

Are Makassar, Ambon and Kendari torpedo enabled and do they have Netties? Obviously crucial questions but if he goes for Timor or Java in my experience Netties rarely nav attack beyond 10 hexes in AE. Thus, you have the correct plan, namely wait for him to enter your trap.

[Canoerebel]

Ambon is definately torpedo enabled. I'm pretty sure Kendari is. I don't think Makassar is (yet).

My fuel situation is challenging. I only have a few AOs available, but I have a half-dozen TKs at Cocos Island, which is think is a level one port. I think through clever juggling of AOs and TKs disbanded into port I can refuel my big ships (Cocos Island is currently a beehive of activity). If necessary, I can try to slip some of those TKs into Tjilitjap, Batavia, or Oosthaven to draw some fuel. This is a fun and interesting aspect of the game for me right now - trying to make sure I can keep all my ships at sea until they are called on for strike duty.

P.S. Steve knows the RN strike aircraft were used to hit Shoho. So he might wonder whether the RN carriers are around or whether I just offloaded the aicraft and kept the carriers at a safe distance. I don't think he suspects the American carriers could be present (why else would he risk some of his carriers in separate divisions around Noumea over the past weeks?).

[John 3rd]

Let him keep the heavies over in the South Pacific! You have a real chance to smash up his already trashed timetable. By hitting with your CVs (at the right moment) you gain three things:

1. Another victory that upsets his plans further weakening him.

2. The additional losses of ships, warships, and troops that Japan can NEVER afford to lose.

3. The forced diversion of the KB to the DEI to provide cover for any landings. This effectively gives you time to move in reinforcements to the South/Southeast/Central Pacific and allows for you to continue moving your CVs to hit him where he isn't.

He has totally lost the tactical initiative and is--right now--in danger of losing the strategic initiative.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

I really think a move on India is impossible until Sumatra is cleared. There is no way Steve could move enough supply overland to sustain an offensive tempo that could truly threaten you. If he tries to move overland, you will have plenty of warning. I would make sure you have at least one of your precious few recon Sq at Calcutta keeping a watchful eye on Burma just to hedge your bets

Japan only needs control of the Malacca Strait, it doesn't need to completely clear Sumatra.

Alfred