A tale from '42 - AlbertN vs MSAG

[AlbertN]

T101 - Moscow Sector

Here as well the Axis is having an advance.
Mostly out of seemingly weak enemy defences and the fact that I've Pioneer infantry to mass.

To reach that canal line would do good as well - as forest + river is somehow stronger than just forest!

Even if at this point probably it would just be wiser to stop offensive operations here and shift infanteries in the hot sectors that are emperiled.

Probably MSAG himself can just set behind the canal and fortify there at many times the German speed due to Moscow civilian workers and superior supplies for bunkers.

[AlbertN]

T101 - Voronhez Sector, Nord

The Soviets kept advancing, and even boldly so in open plains without fortifications ...

I thought that 2 Guard Rifle Corps in clear terrain - with only 'Light Mud' as shield would have been easy prey.

Alas not.
I consider this combat a massive German defeat.

3 SS Panzergrenadier Divisions and 3 Panzer Divisions in discreetly efficient conditions jumped on the 2 infantry corps.

I expect the tanks to sweep through the infantries and kind of butcher them due to ... open plains, no forts ... but the enemy AT guns have done a good job it seems while the German AFV were --- disappointing to put in very sugarcoated terms.

I am still baffled at the CVs and I think that needs rework hard and fast from the developers - I do not really feel or see the 'Elite' German division any elite.

____

Different note, is the math on that screen correct?
I just noticed the PZ Ib for instance ... they're 20, they fire 9.5 per element, they hit 0.5 times per element. So that means the weapon systems of the PZ Ib fired 190 times total (across their weapons). And that among that 0.5 hits per element = 10 hits total out of the 20 elements (20 Pz Ib).
But I see the total hits are ... err ... is one?

So ... is that a percentage? 1 hit out of 20 elements?
But then it would be 0.05.
So that cannot be either.

Should it be a percentage on the elements multiplied by the fired per elements?
Neither as 0.05 * 9.5 = 0.475

There is something amiss I suspect that I do not know but then again how players can learn of the game if the data they see is somehow faulty or has hidden passages?
At this stage I've to put in doubt if the HPE is a percentage or an absolute value.

Admittedly this is the first time I did the math here because ... err ... the math just jumped on my eyes as there was a 1 single hit!

[Stamb]

That math is easy to explain:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmat ... rld_War_II
Apply this to your ground forces!

FPE, HPE is data reported by your soldiers, while HE and AP hits are real!

Other than that I would also like to know what is going on

[AlbertN]

T101 - Your average German division 1 or 2 turns after combat

This is for the show.

These divisions are a mix of German forces that got battered down OR simply got isolated and made out of it in the last 1-2 turns.

Their morale has been smoked and their combat value is pratically smoked except one that is still quite weak.

In '43 it takes very little for the German forces to somehow wash away years of experience and victories and turn into husks and shells of desperate soldiers apparently.

I am not sure how I can constitute a frontline when anything that gets beated once goes down from 10+ CV to 2 CV and sticks there the next turn after my logistic phase.

I am definitely not inclined to get new games going as Germany the deeper I proceed into this game and see how artificially disfunctional the German army is and their logistic is. (I think logistics it's more a case of lacking functions and proper logic though for now)

[AlbertN]

T101 - Smackdown inc

Last post for the turn.

Another German plan here that has not gone to fruition.

I had hopes for a grand rout but it is not the case, the Soviets endured well and smoothly and more German divisions that were somehow healthy (yes at this stage a 6 strong division is surely healthy) are reduced at 1 CV.

I expect a tragedy to consume here during the Soviet turn...

[Stamb]

same morale for all divisions despite one of them were doing super good with 20:2 record looks strange

[Stamb]

But overall in comparison to loki vs speedysteve you are doing very good from Axis perspective. How many turns left until victory check? Looks like Soviets have to take a lot of territory.

[Jango32]

The Soviet sudden death check is the end of 1944.

[AlbertN]

@Stamb: I lamented the Morale issue since long. Fatigue or 'low supply' induces a test that can easily dent the morale of a unit.
Also the higher a unit is in Morale over its NM, the easier it is to drop and in larger quantities it will drop.
All wrong mechanics here I feel that are in place to make sure the German army is artificially reduced just by existing and doing nothing.

I realized that at the first winter when an Italian unit was kept in Odessa (because I am clueless of naval invasions and feared one there). The CSIR started at 50 Morale but Italy has 40 NM. That unit in Odessa, miles away from the front, with 0-0 ratio of Wins / Losses got its morale smoked just by living the good life! (That same unit is still now in Odessa! Keeping the fort up).

The only way to keep morale somehow up is a constant of victories, that can happen only in active fronts.

Either Germany needs a 'veteran' promotion way in the guise of the Guards to raise the NM of the troops or NM mechanics and Morale needs a change of ways or ... at least from my perspective it's plainly wrong how it works right now.

A morale 74 unit present that gets 1 single defeat can even drop to 69 of morale in a single go. Because it's pretty much A LOT above the NM level. If in one turn a unit is isolated, it can drop 4-6 Morale points easily.

And yes Soviet Death Check is end of '44.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: AlbertN


____

Different note, is the math on that screen correct?
I just noticed the PZ Ib for instance ... they're 20, they fire 9.5 per element, they hit 0.5 times per element. So that means the weapon systems of the PZ Ib fired 190 times total (across their weapons). And that among that 0.5 hits per element = 10 hits total out of the 20 elements (20 Pz Ib).
But I see the total hits are ... err ... is one?

So ... is that a percentage? 1 hit out of 20 elements?
But then it would be 0.05.
So that cannot be either.

Should it be a percentage on the elements multiplied by the fired per elements?
Neither as 0.05 * 9.5 = 0.475

There is something amiss I suspect that I do not know but then again how players can learn of the game if the data they see is somehow faulty or has hidden passages?
At this stage I've to put in doubt if the HPE is a percentage or an absolute value.

Admittedly this is the first time I did the math here because ... err ... the math just jumped on my eyes as there was a 1 single hit!

Looks like a display error to me. All the other ones are correct and presented to 2 decimal places. As you say, for the Pz 1 it should be 0.05 and also for the Pz 2 it should be 0.07 and not 0.6 as presented.

I'd raise it as a bug. Given that the FPE is also inconsistent in whether it is displayed to 2 decimal places or not I'd suggest it may be worth them double checking that also - we can't check it as total number of shots fired is not displayed.

For the rest of the element types as far as I can tell the maths makes sense. HPE = total hits/total number of ready elements

[Sammy5IsAlive]

On the morale issue my thoughts would be:

The way I see national morale is that it is a reflection of the soldier's perspective on the overall direction of the war. So by 1943 Germany had been defeated at Stalingrad and at El Alamein. The Western Allies had begun large scale bombing of Germany. By that point I'd argue that it would be fair to say that the faith of the average German soldier in the likelihood of final victory had been severely shaken. So whilst it is possible to mitigate that overall picture to an extent with local victories it makes sense to me that in the absence of such victories a unit's morale will migrate down to the NM. There may be an argument to say why should you get the NM drop for Stalingrad when it hasn't happened in game? I guess the answer to that is that the victory system as originally designed would 'filter out' the big departures from the historical outcomes through the auto-victory system. It is worth pointing out that as far as I can tell under the normal system Albert would have missed out on auto-victory by one turn (Leningrad fell T82, the 01/01/43 check is T81). I guess only the devs know how easy it is to code more 'dynamic' NM to be used in no early end games and whether this is something that warrants development time.

If you look at morale that way my feeling is that there arguments for and against the morale penalties for isolation/low supply being temporary and removed once that situation is resolved.

[loki100]

NM is badly misnamed but the concept is so spread over the code its not feasible to rename.

In the end, its a measure of training that new recruits are getting, which is why units tend towards it. Even in non-combat situations there is manpower churn, including the sort of in and out that is not directly modelled in the game.

Its worth noting the German player gets a whole load of mid/late game bonuses. So you get the Stalingrad manpower bonus even if you were never anywhere near Stalingrad and certainly never lost the equivalent of an army. You get the Rumanian units that were historically released to replace the losses at Odessa even if you manage to keep the at start Rumanian army fairly intact.

There are others, post-Tunisia, post-Finland surrender, post-Falaise all trigger dumps of new units that you can do with as you like - at least in those cases you have to have had the bad bit first.

Its technically relatively easy to code events that are conditional and/or keyed to probabilities. The release of the Finnish units for Leningrad is an eg.

Its very hard to test these for balance, the main testing tool remains AI-AI games as it probably takes a couple of years to finish a HtH game (& that is before too many axis players bail out early), I'd say about 6 months for a vs AI game. As maybe clear, getting the game balanced (& all the arguments that raises) is a challenge as of now. Add in branching event chains and it gets harder.

I did a lot of work for Pride of Nations which has a lot of these and/or/if chains. Some were easy enough but where it engaged with a very significant event balancing both strands was near impossible - as sometimes was finding a suitable trigger that took account of player agency as well as modelled the actual event.

Now speaking purely for myself, I take the view that the game was deliberately designed around the VP system. Its not an after thought. One huge advantage is you then don't need to pour in a lot of resources to the production system if the game goes seriously off into new territory - as long as the variance is recognisably around what happened, then a production model that essentially gives you the historical resources works pretty well.

[AlbertN]

@Loki: I do not make of it a name question, I have understood what at conceptual NM is; I simply think it is lowered too much for the Germans, that it is by default too low for Axis minors by 5-10; and in general for both sides that units can drop Morale far too easily.

Some other players above themselves seemed surprised to see how an almost only victorious unit had morale hammered down.

T102 - Tragedy expected

First time I see a surrender of a unit that was not isolated.

The Hungarian armoured division got mauled three times in a row (at the third surrendering). I'd have rather had it rout at the first combat at this stage.

Other Axis forces are barely in supply while the Soviets battered and crippled what could have reacted.

In the north as well the entrenched Germans are crushed by the vehement Soviet forces. There at least the Soviets suffered quite some losses! But I've recently learned by my own studies of Soviet production that they pretty much dump AFVs out of factories...

Now with that move pratically the Caucasus can turn in a death trap or well - as historically happened the Axis must make a stronghold about Krimea peninsula but I suspect I'll just flee at the other end of the Kerch straight right off the bat!
I wonder if 3 Romanian Divisions will be able to keep it ... with the advantage of a strait.

[AlbertN]

T102 - Voronhez Sector

In the north a sacrificial LW-Feld Regiment is pratically pulverized. The Soviets elect not to advance past the riverline there.

In the south a German division gets hammered, expected result as it was left as rearguard in a lvl 3 fort in forest.
It almost bought me a turn I dare say at this stage, and that's how I should begin to reason. Losses were acceptable ~1600 men and 40ish guns. But the Soviets suffered less than that, 600ish men and 7 guns and 50 AFVs.
That is how a German division that got 'normalized' in morale fights.

Soon to be the latest standard of German fighting power.

The 'hold' locally achieved I believe it's a mistake of MSAG - as you can manifestly see the attack was conducted by a single hex. I am not sure IF Soviets could have maximized their attack in the other hex but they did not and they got a bloodied bath ... somehow.
Which is odd considering Germans there too have 65ish average morale and 40 fatigue. But here there were 3 divisions stacked together.

But the German armoured core has not been smashed - and the Don has not been crossed either which is a relief.
The troops there are pratically bare skeletons holding a line as you saw the Divisions earlier.

The line here is composed of these troops and Hungarians...

[AlbertN]

T102 - Rubynsk Sector

Here the Soviet reaction came in two ways.

One is a mass retreat from the northern sector.

I believe I may run air recon and eventually seize villages if needs to be, but this is exactly the situation I hoped, I may free up some divisions there to send them elsewhere.

BUT now there is the Russian counterattack, wanting to squash the spearhead.
The 8th Panzer endured two assaults and is now isolated.

A German regiment got mauled - it does not matter if a regiment seems to be 5-8 CV strong on paper. They're SMALL.
A single Soviet corp can easily overwhelm it, Germans do not have enough firepower for that many Soviets, while the Soviets have enough firepower to disable enough Germans to cripple their CV and obtain the needed 2:1 situation.

For now the Soviets here are operating on subpar assets, there is a grand lack of army / corps artillery presence on their end.

[Stamb]

Did you check if that surrendered division is really surrendered and does not exist any more on a map? There is a bug when wrong message is given, while in reality they retreat/route. Or maybe I am confusing surrender with a shatter.

[AlbertN]

@Stamb: Yes it is scheduled to return for T110 with 0 of everything

T102 - Production 'Puzzle' P1

Now - at times I sink time in analyzing things. And here there is something that I fail to understand.
Sincerely my first interest was to show the stocks numbers and all but then a thing adds to another ... in fact you can see the Hungarians, that will sooner or later need to reconstitute an armoured division. I think they've enough stuff for, of mixed quality!

Supposedly production is -after- stuff gets distributed.
That makes sense. Someone said Soviet manpower never drops under X - not true. Simply Soviet manpower drops to 0 and then the new production batch pops in!

That is well in line with the Panzer stuff... pratically all the 'max roof' of the Panzers are in the active pool.
So I suspect the Transit Pool % goes into Active pool before distribution? I dunno that!

But then I noticed - how is that possible, if my ever desired Infantry Guns are 0 in pool? Have they not been produced at all? I scratched my head.

On the other hand I keep having a massive overflow of Nebelwerfers that I would truly appreciate to be able to ditch some APs to create Nebelwelfer Battallions. Or even some 150s Artillery ones ... but I have only 180ish of these, not ... thousands.
I am battled all the times I see there 2000 Nebelwelfers sitting in the arsenal...

I suspect I should watch step by step the 'Soviet Logistic' run in to see how the various stuff is processed.

But now I've this gun mystery to solve.

[M60A3TTS]

A couple things as they relate to your presentation of data.

First on the Prod screen, have a look at the bottom where it says Show Types or Hide Types. That often comes in handy.

Second, consider cropping your images so we can more easily focus in on the point you are trying to make.

[AlbertN]

@M60: I know of the switch, it removes the outdated stuff but to show stocks of outdated stuff is still in my intent and purpose there.
The cropping ... I am not sure ... make things smaller? Will try here.

T102 - Production Puzzle

Guns have been produced.
I am not sure why of a type of gun only 23 instead of 25.

BUT obviously the maximum amount of Nebelwefers was produced despite the throbbing stocks that are overflowing out of the arsenal!

Also it seems some AFV-Nebelwelfer made an appearance above that are not used ... yet I hope.

[M60A3TTS]

ORIGINAL: AlbertN

@M60: I know of the switch, it removes the outdated stuff but to show stocks of outdated stuff is still in my intent and purpose there.

No, you're confusing this with Production Filter OFF/ON. Show Types puts in a header for things such as Recon Tank, Medium Tank, CS Tank.