The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

5/7/43

Battle of Sumatra: Six Sisters and Four Kongos bombard Sabang, three other BBs (including Yamato) bombard Langsa, and the Half KB is at Georgetown (actually, mouseover shows only a lesser component, but odds are it's the same half that was there a few days back). Thus I keep getting the solid information about key elements of the Japanese Navy that I'll need to make the final decisions about what comes next.

No ground battles today.

Operation Circus: Lots of wheels in motion now. On the one hand it seems to have taken forever to get everything lined up and ready to go. On the other hand, back when this started, I didn't think everything would be ready by mid-May...and I certainly didn't expect Sumatra to hold out this long. Believe it or not, May 10 is D Plus 6 Months. No helpful SigInt today, but each turn I get good information on Japanese troop and aircraft deployment and concentration. By no means am I walking blindfolded, though there is that other Half (or More) KB.

[Canoerebel]

My list of IJN CVs is just those that could be in the game now. I didn't include any 1944 arrivals like Amagi, Katsuragi and Aso.

Just how soon can John expedite production of those carriers? Could '44 arrival carriers arrive in the game in May '43?

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's the Japanese carrier OOB

CV (10 or possibly 11): Akagi, Kaga, Hiryu, Soryu, Shukaku, Zuikaku, Junyo, Hiyou, Ryukaku, Taikaku (if expedited just a bit) and Renkaku (due in October)
CVL (5): Ryujo, Shoho, Zuiho, Ryuko, Nisshin
CVE (6 or maybe 8): Hosho, Taiyo, Unyo, Chuyo, Suijan (I can't read my own handwriting), Kuzuyu (and possibly Kaiyo and Shiyo, due in November and December)
Too, there could be CS conversions to CVL?

It's rough. Is there no CV Amagi or CV Katsuragi in your version of RA? In my game I believe every last CV (but not CVL) was complete by mid 43. Also there are some CVE conversions but I'm not sure how many.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
I don't think I'd mind a Death Star vs. Half KB clash at this point if John is really short on capital ships. My impression is that with enhanced AA, carrier strikes are kind of a one-shot affair with heavy losses. That fact that there will be 600 or 700 merchants and support ships present will exacerbate that problem. I'm not seeking a battle necessarily, but if one took place now, in open waters with Death Start vs. Half KB, it probably wouldn't be a one-sided affair either way.

It most definitely would not be a one sided affair! I had my Death Star vs Half KB (and the weaker half of that) a few months ago. The Japanese torpedo bombers will break through any CAP and wreck havoc...that much you can assume. Just be sure to hit the KB harder.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
My list of IJN CVs is just those that could be in the game now. I didn't include any 1944 arrivals like Amagi, Katsuragi and Aso.

Just how soon can John expedite production of those carriers? Could '44 arrival carriers arrive in the game in May '43?

I spotted the CV Amagi on April 10th 1943 so yes definitely it's possible.

EDIT:
And I spotted the CV Katsuragi in July 1943 and it may have well arrived months earlier.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's the Japanese carrier OOB

CV (10 or possibly 11): Akagi, Kaga, Hiryu, Soryu, Shukaku, Zuikaku, Junyo, Hiyou, Ryukaku, Taikaku (if expedited just a bit) and Renkaku (due in October)
CVL (5): Ryujo, Shoho, Zuiho, Ryuko, Nisshin
CVE (6 or maybe 8): Hosho, Taiyo, Unyo, Chuyo, Suijan (I can't read my own handwriting), Kuzuyu (and possibly Kaiyo and Shiyo, due in November and December)
Too, there could be CS conversions to CVL?

So a powerful lineup.

As for escorts, John's hurting for DDs too. But a dearth of CAs and BBs is probably his real Achilles heel. He can put the two BCs to that use and probably has a CA or two to spare, but that's pretty slim if the carriers are attacked in strength by Death Star strike aircraft.

I don't think I'd mind a Death Star vs. Half KB clash at this point if John is really short on capital ships. My impression is that with enhanced AA, carrier strikes are kind of a one-shot affair with heavy losses. That fact that there will be 600 or 700 merchants and support ships present will exacerbate that problem. I'm not seeking a battle necessarily, but if one took place now, in open waters with Death Start vs. Half KB, it probably wouldn't be a one-sided affair either way.

But I'm just talking aloud to gather thoughts. Much more thinking will go into this. Appearances of enemy ships (especially cruisers and carries) in Sumatra over the next week will significantly influence my thinking.

It's good to go through this, even if it's a bit daunting. It's the intel side that the Allies were so good at keeping tabs on, and understanding where to achieve a local temporary superiority in order to move forward.

Mainly, assume that whatever losses you've given the IJN will hurt eventually, but it's too early for those to matter now. There are enough big escorts by your calculations since the CL he gets are much better than usual Japanese CL, and the AA on all ships is enhanced by having upgrades to the highest quality Japanese gun platform, the 10cm Type 98 DP gun, and if I read the notes correctly, even a Japanese Bofors-like system?

He also gets more good modern DDs, the big Akizuki class which are the best CV escorts the Japanese made.

So. It all depends on what you know about where they all are when you want to go. [:)]

[ny59giants]

If I remember right, this version of RA has stock CVs plus three or four of the Shokaku-kai Class CVs (81 plane capacity). He still has the 6 Unryu Class CVs coming too. So, sometime in late '43 to early '44 you will face 16 to 18 CVs as he will have accelerated most of them to come in as pairs.

I'm playing BTS Lite which is Treaty plus RA. I figured with the increases Japan gets, its not until early to mid-44 before Allies achieve equal number of CVs. Part of me is planning for the game to go into '46. I've not played with CV Midway before. [:D]

[JohnDillworth]

I've not played with CV Midway before.

or Bearcats UMMMMMMMMM....Bearcats

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

If I remember right, this version of RA has stock CVs plus three or four of the Shokaku-kai Class CVs (81 plane capacity). He still has the 6 Unryu Class CVs coming too. So, sometime in late '43 to early '44 you will face 16 to 18 CVs as he will have accelerated most of them to come in as pairs.

I'm playing BTS Lite which is Treaty plus RA. I figured with the increases Japan gets, its not until early to mid-44 before Allies achieve equal number of CVs. Part of me is planning for the game to go into '46. I've not played with CV Midway before. [:D]

Didn't you or someone earlier mention that there are no "extra" CVs in this RA version?? [:(]

I don't know if I have the same that is being played here, but it seems like there are only 3 Unryu class and there are the three Shokaku-Kai Dan lists. He should be able to see what's coming I would guess in the lists, right?

[ny59giants]

My best guess of what carriers (CV, CVL, CVE) Japan has with RA 5.0. I looked in John's AAR to see what I could find and current version of RA. Since Dan has newest version of RA, he cannot open as Japan to see what was.

CVs: 17
Akagi (75), Kaga (81), Soryu (63), Hiryu (69), Shokaku (72), Zuikaku (72), Hiyo (57), Junyo (57) - normal 8 that all players see by mid-42
Six Unryu Class - Unryu (63), Amagi (63), Katsuragi (63), Kasagi (63), Aso (63), Ikuma (63)
NEW!! - Three Shokaku-kai Class - Ryukaku (81), Renkaku (81), Taikaku (81)
Removed - CV Taiho and Shimano

CVLs: 8
Ryujo (39), Zuiho (31), Shoho (31), Ryuho (31)
Four CS can convert to CVLs - Nisshin (31), Mizuho (31), Chitose (31), Chiyoda (31)

CVEs: 8
Hosho (18), Kaiyem (18), Kuzuryu (18), Taiyo (27), Unyo (21), Chuyo (21), Shinyo (33), Kaiyo (24)
Some are large AOs or APs that are allowed to convert

[Canoerebel]

5/8/43

Battle of Sumatra: The second crack in the Allied defenses in the past few days, as the last Allied division in the contested hex south of Langsa gives way after being pummeled by two Kongos, Six Sisters, and lots of enemy air. (The other two divisions there had already retired for various important reasons.) Losses to the withrawing unit are high.

I'll have to retire from Langsa to Sabang. If I don't, the Japanese unit crossing the island (slowly, via jungle) will cut off the path. It couldn't ordinarly, but John has learned that massed bombardments of ground troops outside bases will disrupt them badly enough for his units to prevail.

Retirement to Sabang is okay from the longterm perspective. It's still going to take John weeks to move to Sabang in strength. By the time his troops arrive the jig will be up anyway as supply will be low or gone. IE, this is the final phase of the battle now, but John won't know that for weeks yet, it will take time for his troops to advance, and in all probability he'll be so enthused by his successes on the ground that he won't invade Sabang directly. This means that Sabang will have served its purpose far, far longer than I could have expected and well into the time in which Circus is underway.

Losing Sumatra is a tough thing to absorb, but it would have been much tougher three months ago when there was no realistic hope to build on it in the near term.

John's having trouble controlling himself, which is nothing new. He's agreed many times to not reveal the outcome of a turn when he sends an email, for obvious "spoiler" reasons. He even asked me awhile back if I'd noticed that he'd been behaving. But he sent this comment with his email: "This was how Lee’s en echelon attack on Day TWO at Gettysburg SHOULD have worked. Or, perhaps, given your location how Bragg’s en echelon should have gone at Chicamauga." I knew exactly what it meant, so it spoiled the movie a bit.

I saw the title of John's AAR post: "Bobby Lee." I'm tempted to remined him, "Yeah, but Bobby Lee never forgot to put out pickets thus letting the Army of the Potomoc march 200 miles behind his lines to occupy Petersburg and Charlottesville without him even knowing it." But I won't.

Operation Circus: Ships all over the place - many packed with supplies and troops, others still loading while awaiting the moment when the carriers are completely squared away with fuels and with Hellcat squadrons fully operational. I'll probably swap out one more Hellcat squadron, giving me five. All ships - amphibious, support, combat, carrier - will be rendezvouing at a Point Luck one-third of the way to the beaches in about eight to nince days.

I don't think John's subs have picked up a whiff of the invasion forces (and his nav search is still way too far away). He has subs all around Oz now - espeically near Perth, Esperance and Melbourne. But he's left Tasmania and New Zealand alone. I'm not sure why.

SigInt shows a regiment inbound to Ambon. He continues to fortify in the Java Sea region. No other SigInt of note today.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the info on carriers Micheal.

I'm not sure what you meant by this: "Since Dan has newest version of RA, he cannot open as Japan to see what was." We're playing Scenario 70, so I can open that Hot Seat to see what John has and gets. Or am I wrong?

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

My best guess of what carriers (CV, CVL, CVE) Japan has with RA 5.0. I looked in John's AAR to see what I could find and current version of RA. Since Dan has newest version of RA, he cannot open as Japan to see what was.

CVs: 17
Akagi (75), Kaga (81), Soryu (63), Hiryu (69), Shokaku (72), Zuikaku (72), Hiyo (57), Junyo (57) - normal 8 that all players see by mid-42
Six Unryu Class - Unryu (63), Amagi (63), Katsuragi (63), Kasagi (63), Aso (63), Ikuma (63)
NEW!! - Three Shokaku-kai Class - Ryukaku (81), Renkaku (81), Taikaku (81)
Removed - CV Taiho and Shimano

CVLs: 8
Ryujo (39), Zuiho (31), Shoho (31), Ryuho (31)
Four CS can convert to CVLs - Nisshin (31), Mizuho (31), Chitose (31), Chiyoda (31)

CVEs: 8
Hosho (18), Kaiyem (18), Kuzuryu (18), Taiyo (27), Unyo (21), Chuyo (21), Shinyo (33), Kaiyo (24)
Some are large AOs or APs that are allowed to convert

[ny59giants]

My understanding was that John and you 'upgraded' to one of the newer versions of RA when this game resumed. So, the older version was written over. This did get a few things to upgrade, but the naval OOB doesn't unless you start a fresh game. Only John's version of the game has the 5.0 data left unless you still have the 5.0 files. Then, you could rename them all and open up Japan to see what is what from back then.

[Canoerebel]

I think we're playing RA 5.6, but I don't think any changes to the OOB or the like were altered. I think the ships are the same. I know the aircraft pools and production are unaltered (unfortunately). Etc.

I know that you and John tamped down some of Japan's advantages in later versions or Mods, but to my knowledge we're still playing with the original RA biases.

[HansBolter]

I have been beta testing Focus Pacific for paradigmblue and did the same with Between The Storm for John.

In both cases updates have had no effect in an ongoing game and require a restart to implement.

[Canoerebel]

5/9/43 and 5/10/43

Battle of Sumatra: John and I have worked together (though he doesn't know it) to ensure that the endgame in Sumatra is methodical and therefore slow. After he evicted me from the contested hex, I sent an armored unit back to the hex from adjacent Langsa. It won the race, crossing the hexside before the enemy could and therefore closing off that hexside. Thus John will have to attack before advancing. And it's clear that a land advance is what he's chosen, because there are now seven units in the hex (up from three at the time of the attack). This buys me enough time to get all units out of Langsa. Some via strat movement and some by regular movement. All this means "Fortress Sabang" will be at optimal strength. It has 90k supply, so should last for at least two weeks or maybe longer.

Of course, John isn't aware that Sumatra is largely a diversion effort now. From his perspective, he's winning a vital campaign. He's justifiably pleased by the progress he's making. He'll be glad to get Langsa. But as far as he knows the campaign will stretch on for quite some time. He knows he's hemming me in, but I bet he doesn't invade now. A ground campaign will take probably 10 days just to reach Sabang. Meanwhile, I think he'll keep his BBs and carriers in place on the belief that I'm going to try to reinforce.

So, Sumatra will string out long enough to serve as the needed distraction as Circus unfolds. (I think...)

Operation Circus: Still a few more days until the carriers finish their pre-Circus fueling and upgrading aircraft, but most of the amphibious ships are on the high seas now. Lots of enemy activity around Oz, New Guinea, Java Sea - more SigInt of reinforcements to Ambon; lots of recon of NE Oz bases; lots of enemy aircraft at Rabaul; big concentrations of troops at Rabaul, Lunga and other places. But the Allies won't try to crack the hard outer shell. We're going to outflank it. (I hope...)

[jwolf]

But the Allies won't try to crack the hard outer shell. We're going to outflank it. (I hope...)

Cool. [8D] Looking forward to seeing this play out!

[Lecivius]

.

[anarchyintheuk]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I saw the title of John's AAR post: "Bobby Lee." I'm tempted to remined him, "Yeah, but Bobby Lee never forgot to put out pickets thus letting the Army of the Potomoc march 200 miles behind his lines to occupy Petersburg and Charlottesville without him even knowing it." But I won't.

Lee was an amazing general, but he doesn't get called out enough for the several times he got caught with his pants down . . . Burnside's initial move to Fredericksburg, Chancellorsville and the move on Petersburg.

It will be interesting to see how much longer Sumatra holds.

[Canoerebel]

I'm not nervous yet. I will be in a few days. [:)]

I periodically compare activity in the AE, WitE and WitW forums. I've been doing it since WitW came out. Why? I dunno. It's just interested me to see if AE would fade and if one of both of these games might be the next big thing.

The AE After Action Reports currently has 23 viewers, WitW 2, and WitE 2.

AAR activity alone isn't enought to compare these games, but this has been consistent. Except during the immediate period surrounding release of the two newer games, activity in both forums have lagged badly in comparison to AE.

That's eye-opening since AE is a far older product and by most measures should have grown stale by now.

By AE isn't normal, is it? It's entered into the realm of "classic," as far as I can tell. The AE forum is more active today than when I left the game 2.5 years ago on my long sabbatical. And it's survived and even thrived as other old timers have moved on.

AE is a prodigy. And it's keeping me awake at night, presenting challenges and worries along the lines Lecivius refers to.

[Lowpe]

I wanted to point out that there is no Jacks in this game. Someone mentioned souped up Jacks a while back, and they aren't to be found in the Japanese OOB in this mod.

I think the beauty of the super strong Japan mod is that it provides the opportunity for the Allies to use some wonder weapons late in the game, if Japan can last that long. If the SRA oil is shut down 6 months early (Jan of 1944 instead of June 44) then despite all the advantages, Japan will have a tough time seeing 2/45.

Conjecture on my part...

[ny59giants]

The length of this game, like mine, will be determined by the outcome of the first big CV clash. I can see both going into '46.