Operation Barbarossa - Alpha AAR

[ComradeP]

For those worrying about how lethal the winter is going to be to Elmo, here's some historical information on casualties:

Up to November, the Germans (not the Axis, the Germans alone) had suffered 686.000 casualties, that's 20% of the 3.4 million men (including replacements) at or send to the Eastern Front since the fighting started or about a regiment for each division. Out of the roughly half a million motor vehicles, 1/3 were worn out or damaged beyond repair and only 1/3 were serviceable. According to OKH, the 136 divisions at the Eastern Front had a strength of 83 full strength divisions.

The Soviets had about 4.2 million men at the front in early December. Even if we take the Soviet official literature's figures for troop strength and losses in terms of divisions, out of the 461 divisions at or moved to the front or in reserves since June 22, only 279 were in field (that's as paper units) in early December. That's a loss rate of 39%. The majority of the roughly 2 million militia divisions, local party reserves and the like had been badly mauled or simply disappeared.

Source: Moscow to Stalingrad - Decision in the East by the (US) Center of Military History.

Even though Soviet losses have not been spectacular, Axis forces are still in a good shape, although it's difficult to tell what the AFV losses represent. In any case, I doubt that at this point 6th and 7th Panzer have a combined strength of 600 guys and no tanks like in real life December 1941.

Soviet aircraft losses have been considerable, and Luftwaffe losses are fairly historical thus far: up to November the Luftwaffe had an average monthly strength of 2.462 aircraft and an average monthly loss rate of 741 aircraft, which more or less matches the current result, although that seems to be for all Axis air forces, which means elmo's probably doing fine. Up to around November, the Luftwaffe had lost 5002 aircraft in 1941 (all fronts) and had 3.562 damaged aircraft (all fronts). By late September, Luftwaffe "in commission" rates dropped to below 60% for fighters and below 50% and later 40% for bombers. As elmo's not managing all of his air assets himself, I'd say the results have been pretty good thus far compared to history.

Source: The Luftwaffe 1933-1945 - Strategy for Defeat by Williamson Murray.

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Elmo, if I may give some advice, remember not to turn the advance to Moscow into a copy of Stalingrad: you don't need to capture Moscow for any strategic goal, you're pushing towards Moscow by choice.

Suggestions for future pre-winter combat actrions in the northern/central front:

See if you can capture most of Leningrad. You can probably take your time. Try to push the Soviets back into the marshes and wish them a good winter. I'd suggest destroying/pushing back the 4=28 stack south of the air recon in the western part of the Leningrad sector screenshot so you can open more rail lines. I don't know whether air HQ's need a ground like to evacuate, because if they do the AI has presented you with a fine chance to destroy some aircraft north of Leningrad after you encircle/occupy the city.

I'd suggest pulling your guys back to Vyazma. After that, shift your tanks to the south in the good tank country and capture Bryansk. Establish a defensive line at the river Bolva. You have two rivers to fall back to in the immediate surrounding area. I really doubt the Soviets can get through there.

South of Velikiye Luki, I see a mob of Rifle formations that are just begging to be encircled as they're in a position they can't quickly get out of it seems. Capture Velikiye Luki and possibly push the flanks up to Rzhev. As Rzhev is on the "wrong" side of the river, you might want to wait with capturing it although I guess it could serve as the anchor to your northern flank.

Suggestions for the southern/central sector: The bridgehead east of Kiev is nice, but not necessary. Try to pull back a bit and push back the Soviets directly north of Kiev.

From a defensive perspective, you basically have two choices of where to position your defensive line: You could shift some Panzers south to capture Cherkassy and Kirovograd and build a line there, although you'll also have to push back the Soviets further south. If the weather holds for a while, that might be possible, but it's a more risky option. Your "line" at Cherkassy is a huge gaping hole currently, so you'll have to do something in any case.

The less risky option would be to simply draw a straight line south from Kiev and defend along the rivers in the area, pulling back the Minor Axis forces to the west back of the rivers (some of them are across) but still pushing the Soviets back to Nikolaev. Nikolaev, like Rzhev, is on the "wrong" side of the river, so you might want to wait with capturing it. The south is mostly tank country, so you should be able to plug breakthroughs easily provided your Panzer divisions are not at the frontline.

The historical 1941-1942 Soviet winteroffensive worked because the Axis were stretched thin, not due to the quality of Soviet troops or the brilliance of their plan (Stalin basically planned to encircle every Army Group at the same time, ignoring suggestions from Zhukov and others for more limited encirclements). If you place your forces from Vyazma to Nikolaev in a more or less straight line, using rivers to your advantage, you should be able to hold out, especially if you rest your forces and prepare for most of November. The primary thing to keep in mind is that in 1941 and early 1942, the quality of Soviet forces is still poor, so it doesn't really matter how many guys they bring as long as you're prepared and rested.

Try not to suffer from the "victory disease" many wargamers suffer from, trying to always push further. It's time to stabilize the front through limited gains, secure the flanks and dig in. Make the Soviets suffer when they attack.

[elmo3]

ORIGINAL: Captain B

Elmo,

Do you think if the AI re-do (defending cities, etc.) that set you back to mid-August was far enough back? If the AI chose to defend cities early on could you not have surrounded and captured more soviets and therefore they may not be at your flanks ready to cut you off now?...

At most there would have been a few more units to surround. But in general yes, I should have been looking to make more pockets. Don't forget though that the point of the rollback was to see if it was now tougher to get to Moscow as well as making sure the AI did a better job guarding cities. So I wanted to use the same plan of slicing through to Moscow. So far I'd say the AI is doing better.

[elmo3]

ORIGINAL: Captain B

Elmo, another quick question...


In WIR, there was a formula for how many infantry squads were eliminated per turn based on if they were moving and 10% before the replacement phase or something similar to that (if memory serves me correctly)...what is the formula for WiTE? Is it for all blizzard conditions or only for the 1941 blizzard...or do special rules apply for 1941?

Thanks.

Never played much WiR so I can't compare the two really. And I don't know how attrition is calculated in WitE. There are some special first winter rules for WitE that affect non-Finnish units as I mentioned a few posts above this one.

[elmo3]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

...

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Elmo, if I may give some advice, remember not to turn the advance to Moscow into a copy of Stalingrad: you don't need to capture Moscow for any strategic goal, you're pushing towards Moscow by choice.

....

Yes I did want to try and recreate the progress made before the restart so that is why I have been pushing toward Moscow, not for any strategic reasons. Sort of a before and after approach if you will. Blizzard conditions don't usually come until December although there will be more Mud turns between now and then.

I'm about to start the turn and still have not decided exactly what I want to do. It is often my style to play that way rather than planning three turns in advance. The latter approach is probably a better way to play WitE but it's hard to teach an old dog like me new tricks.

[freeboy]

I thought the reds where"programed" toi fall aprt in this game if M fell?

[wiking62]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

For those worrying about how lethal the winter is going to be to Elmo, here's some historical information on casualties:

Up to November, the Germans (not the Axis, the Germans alone) had suffered 686.000 casualties, that's 20% of the 3.4 million men (including replacements) at or send to the Eastern Front since the fighting started or about a regiment for each division. Out of the roughly half a million motor vehicles, 1/3 were worn out or damaged beyond repair and only 1/3 were serviceable. According to OKH, the 136 divisions at the Eastern Front had a strength of 83 full strength divisions.

I presume you are including wounded and captured in the 686,000 casualties?

The actual number of KIA's was 302,495 or about 11% of the total manpower on the Eastern Front.

These figures are taken from Rüdiger Overmans book Deutsche militärische Verluste im Zweiten Weltkrieg.

[Joel Billings]

ORIGINAL: hart2412

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

For those worrying about how lethal the winter is going to be to Elmo, here's some historical information on casualties:

Up to November, the Germans (not the Axis, the Germans alone) had suffered 686.000 casualties, that's 20% of the 3.4 million men (including replacements) at or send to the Eastern Front since the fighting started or about a regiment for each division. Out of the roughly half a million motor vehicles, 1/3 were worn out or damaged beyond repair and only 1/3 were serviceable. According to OKH, the 136 divisions at the Eastern Front had a strength of 83 full strength divisions.

I presume you are including wounded and captured in the 686,000 casualties?

The actual number of KIA's was 302,495 or about 11% of the total manpower on the Eastern Front.

These figures are taken from Rüdiger Overmans book Deutsche militärische Verluste im Zweiten Weltkrieg.

So far, Lee's right on track with 159k killed as of the start of October. Maybe he's doing a little better than historical if those losses are only through November. He's lost 48k men in the past 4 weeks. If he keeps up with 12k per turn, he could end November with only 270k KIA (and he may end up with less losses in mud if he reduces his number of attacks).

[ComradeP]

I presume you are including wounded and captured in the 686,000 casualties?

Yes, I think the authors meant "all causes", so KIA/WIA/MIA/POW.

[wiking62]

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

I presume you are including wounded and captured in the 686,000 casualties?

Yes, I think the authors meant "all causes", so KIA/WIA/MIA/POW.

I forgot to add in my previous post, if anyone is interested in the book i listed above, here are the details:

Publisher: Oldenbourg Wissensch.Vlg
Language German
ISBN-10: 3486200283
Paperback: 367 pages

[elmo3]

10/2/41 (turn 16):  AGN is pushing (pun intended) closer to Pushkin.  We are in position to get about as good an attack next turn as we can.  We'll continue to bombard the defenders but I'm not expecting much help there.  You may be bale to see that it's muddy just to our East and hopefully the ground will remain firm for our assault next turn.

[elmo3]

10/2/41 (turn 16):  "General Elmo you have received an urgent communications from the Fuhrer.  He says under no circumstances are you to withdraw from in front of Moscow."  "You think that's what it says but I think it was garbled in transmission.  Ask them to resend it and take you sweet time doing it."  "Yes sir."

Well what is Hitler going to do, send me to the Eastern Front for disobeying his orders?!

Note how slowly AGC armor is withdrawing due to the mud.  I'm going to pull back a bit further while trying to widen the flanks and create something we may be able to defend for the Winter.  Perhaps we can pocket some Soviets on the flanks too.  In the North we'd like to move up to the minor river west of Velikie Luki and take the city if we can.  On the southern flank we'd like to take Kaluga and form a line running West from there.  Moscow will have to wait until '42.

[wiking62]

Wise choice to withdraw and wait for 1942. Your position was looking too precarious for my liking.
 
Not tempted to punch through to Rzhev before winter arrives?

[elmo3]

10/2/41 turn 16:  One of two things will happen as a result of the bold move made by von Rundstedt's AGS this turn.  Either his encirclement using 1st Pz Grp (red) will work in the next two turns in which case he will be replacing me at OKH, or it will fail in which case I'll have company in front of the firing squad.  The first shot is from the start of the turn.  Note all the Soviet airbases behind the lines.  In the second shot you can see they are gone thanks to the 11th Pz Div which drove deep behind Soviet lines to overrun them.  If we get mud down here next turn 1st Pz Grp will really be in trouble.  If it stays dry we will continue to go for the big pocket. It's also possible this breakthrough will trigger a full scale withdrawal by the Soviets to a better position farther East, which would really be OK with me.





Since this covers most of the far south action I won't bother with another screen shot for this turn except for the losses which will come after the AI does it's part of the turn.

[elmo3]

ORIGINAL: hart2412

...

Not tempted to punch through to Rzhev before winter arrives?

That might be a bridge too far unless we could pocket the Soviets between there and Velikie Luki. Otherwise it would jut create another bulge in a different direction.

[elmo3]

Losses through 10/2/41 turn 16:

[zbig]

I understand that you wanted to head for Moscow to test the AI but in retrospect, would it have been better to try to pocket the Soviet forces in front of Moscow and advance in a wider front?

[elmo3]

And the good news is that turn 17 has Clear weather in all four zones.

[elmo3]

ORIGINAL: zbig

I understand that you wanted to head for Moscow to test the AI but in retrospect, would it have been better to try to pocket the Soviet forces in front of Moscow and advance in a wider front?

Yes unless there was some kind of automatic victory for taking Moscow. Unlikely that will be the case so defeating the defenders in front of AGC would have probably been the better plan.

[Zorch]

Is it ahistorical to have clear weather after mud season starts? From the accounts, it sounds like once mud started, it stayed muddy until everything froze over.

[elmo3]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Is it ahistorical to have clear weather after mud season starts? From the accounts, it sounds like once mud started, it stayed muddy until everything froze over.

I'm playing random weather so it does not necessarily follow history.