Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

Has anybody else noticed that Alfred is a somebody worth listening to?

I am already on the record as saying I think a move on India is unlikely, but it's still something I'm preparing for. Alfred is right; furthermore, Steve is attending to the bases on Sumatra's north coast. I thought I could hold Medan for awhile, but he's diverting all his bombers from Singapore missions over to that base. That tells me he wants it pretty badly.

I have stripped India of alot of firepower as part of my plan to reinforce Sumatra. But she's not totally empty and lots of reinforcements are on the way. AVs are currently Bombay 450, Karachi 400, Calcutta 250, other bases minimal. However, those are decent garrisons for those bases due to the urban bonuses.

As noted above, I have a bunch of American units set to arrive in Capetown beginning in 20 days. So, in about 40 days, roughly a division worth of troops will arrive in India. Also, India receives a decent number of reinforcements in coming months.

Alltogether, I think I have enough to handle what the enemy might bring over the next few months.

[Nomad]

Yes, Alfred is very knowledgeable. When his comments run counter to what I think, I reevaluate my understanding of the situation.

[witpqs]

Alfred:

Write an AAR! You'll have fun doing it.

[Cribtop]

Alfred is indeed smart. I put him in a rarefied group with Nemo and jrcar. All three of these gents have given me good advice at one point or another as I look to improve my game.

I will say that an attempt by Japan to use the Malacca Strait without securing southern Sumatra had better make sure to account for string bags and, worse, "dismounted" CV Dauntless DBs. However, with enough LRCAP from Malayan bases and control of northern Sumatra, this is difficult but doable.

[Canoerebel]

2/17/42

A bittersweet day!

Eastern DEI: In the bitter department, a stout IJN bombardment force (Haruna, Kongo, Mogami, Maya, Atagi, Takao) leaps forward to bombard Koepang in preparation for an amphibious landing that is oddly small. It's bitter, because I'd jump all over that if my carriers were five days further north! But they aren't. Steve only brought a little company-sized unit, so he's trying to steal this on the cheap....but I hadn't withdrawn the garrison (probably the only intact garrison in the DEI outside Sumatra). I don't know if he has enough to take the base, though with bombing and bombardments he might be able to.

Western DEI: The sweet aspect is that the invasion of Koepang suggests that Steve is focused on the eastern DEI (suggests, mind you, it doesn't prove). I really hope that's the case, because I want more time to attend to Sumatra. Steve has mentioned the buildup at Palembang in a recent email (and he's been reconning that base and Djambi for several weeks now). The Allies are already strongly in place, but that will increase materially over the next ten days...and I intend to reinforce as long as circumstances permit.

Carriers: The American carriers should arrive at Perth tonight to top off with fuel. Indomitable and Hermes are moving east to be in a position to rendezvous should an opportunity arise. Thus far in the game, Steve has shows a couple of tendencies: (1) to leap forward into Indian Country with big assets even though he can't be certain Allied carriers aren't around; and (2) when carriers accompany invasion forces, he tends to keep the carriers several hexes behind the invasion forces, instead of out front. These tendencies may allow the Allies to orchestrate a strike. I'm hunting big game here - battleships, carriers, or, if absoltuely necessary, cruisers. Those are the Achillee's Heels of the Japanese militiary, becuase they come in finite numbers.

China: I think Steve is trying to orchestrate a move where he'll consider crossing the river to attack Siangtan, the base between Changsha and Hengyang. I've been mulling over the potential that base represents for several games now, so I have about 2,000 AV prepping for it. Right now, about 1,500 AV are present. Steve only has one division that could cross right now, but I'm keeping my eye on the stack at Changsha to see if he tries something tricky. I think I can handle whatever he tries. The trickiest situation will be if he posts his stack in the hex adjacent to both Henyang and Siangtan. Then he could choose one of the two and I wouldn't know which was the target until he crossed the river. My counter would be to leave Changsha lightly guarded and to divide about 8,000 AV between the two at-risk bases. Both have three forts, so they would be strongly held. I could move my army back to Changsha before Steve could if he tried a double-cross. In general, this is what I think he's up to in China. But that's a move I've been expecting since before the game began.

[Canoerebel]

2/18/42

Eastern DEI: The same IJN bombardment TF is present at Koepang. In addition, a new amphibious force including CAs Suzuya and Furutaka are on the scene. But they won't be hanging around there by the time my carriers could make it - I'll have to seek another opportunity, but that's the kind of game I'm hunting - two BBs and six heavy CAs. The reinforced landing should have enough to take the base.

Western DEI: Quiet. I'm thinking I need roughly 3500 AV in eastern Sumatra to do the job I want. I currently have about 2500 AV. Here's what I have and what I want: Palembang 1350 (1750); Djambi 100 (100); Praebemolith 100 (75); Oosthaven 650 (750); Benkolen 150 (750); Padang 100 (250). Right now, about 500 AV is on the way, so I'm not too far from getting where I want to be. I'll keep the reinforcements coming as long as possible, even beyond the 3500 level.

China: Still waiting to see what Steve will do around Changsha/Siangtan/Hengyang.

Luzon: A fifth division shows up at Clark Field (4, 33, 38, 21 and 53). As an Allied player facing the prospect of overwhelming IJA divisions at the start of the war, I can't imagine a better place to have them committed for a time than Luzon. Japan will take the base, but better to see them there in February 1942 instead of Oz, Singapore, Java, Sumatra, or some other locale out on the perimeter. Japan can take Luzon with a brigade and a few regiments in April 1942 just by bombing it to the stone age first.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

ORIGINAL: bradfordkay

"It seems Chez may have planned on Brave Sir Robin (and maybe has only faced Sir Robin to this point). Confronted with a laager defense, he has pulled back and seems to be flumixed as to how to procede. I always loved the word laager and as it is a Dutch word it seems appropo. "

I can assure you that this is not the case. While I have not brought the British 18th Division or the AVG into the SRA I have always tried to find places where my NEI troops can stand and make themselves counted as tough fighters. In our CHS game Palembang ended up 80% demolished by the end of the fight, so in our present game I decided not to put so many forces into that location (the western Sumatra forces fought for that oil port up there instead). In retrospect this was a mistake, because the die rolls did not fall in my favor this time and Palembang was captured with no damage! I do wonder how Dan managed to transfer the CD units from Tarakan to Palembang, as I thought that those boys were permanently restricted.

I alway heavily invest in USAAF and RAF forces for the defense of the NEI but his Betties and the KB have managed to decimate my naval forces in the region, though not without cost to the baby KB.

That touches on two things that are so great about WiTP/WiTp-AE

1. Both sides are able to redo the war without making the critical RL mistakes. Yes, for Japan we know that dividing KB was a huge mistake. As Allies, you don't have to send force Z to its death and you don't have to send the 18th UK to die at Singers.

2. The games are replayable. Each reiteration provides new opportunites for untried strategies and approaches. No two games are alike.

Now, how cool is that?

Yes, it is the best thing. However, the Japanese player with production on and PDU has much more opportunity to reshape the battle than the Allies who are locked into their producton figures and types. I really would like to be able to cancel production of the P39 and build more thunderbolts to match my opponents output of georges and franks but can't do that.

In fact, it would be wonderful to be able to cancel the atomic bomb program and devote the billion dollars saved and tens of thousands of man hours to producing another 600 P38 lightnings per month..[X(] Or....perhaps just scrap the production of the boomerang (arguably the most useless plane in the Allied inventory) and move the production of the Atomic bomb up by half a year......

[Canoerebel]

2/19/42

Eastern DEI: Koepang falls to the enemy. This is an important move by Steve, as it makes Allied carrier operations in that area much more difficult. I won't be able to sneak up and goose him around Kendari. Another CA (Kako) seen in the area. Wow, that's alot of firepower. I'm still optimistic I'll get a shot at something juicy before it's all said and done. Mini-KB is near Dili with another at Kendari.

Western DEI: Big Brit base force landing at Benkolen with most of an Aussie brigade to arrive there in a few days. Everything quiet here. No enemy action at Singapore since January 10. That's marvelous. I hope Steve is awaiting major reinforcements. Singers holding deep into March would be huge.

China: At least three IJ units have vacated Changsha on the road to the north. Not sure why Brad is weakening his major front, though perhaps he wants to try a stab at my left flank (Chenge). If so, my reiinforcements are almost there and it will take him weeks to reach the hex.

Luzon: The reinforced IJ army attacked at 1:2 odds, dropping forts to one, and causing the Allies slightly greater casualties. Both sides suffered enough disruption to need some rest for awhile, but the dike is cracking. Perhaps the garrison can hold for one more attack. I'm hoping Clark/Bataan might be able to hold out a total of ten days to two weeks. Where do the five IJA divisions go aferwards? I rate the likely targets in this order: Singapore, Java, China, Sumatra (becuase I think Steve will want to take Singers before moving on Sumatra - just a hunch).

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: vettim89

I really think a move on India is impossible until Sumatra is cleared. There is no way Steve could move enough supply overland to sustain an offensive tempo that could truly threaten you. If he tries to move overland, you will have plenty of warning. I would make sure you have at least one of your precious few recon Sq at Calcutta keeping a watchful eye on Burma just to hedge your bets

Japan only needs control of the Malacca Strait, it doesn't need to completely clear Sumatra.

Alfred

I too have learned the wisdom of heeding Alfred's advice, but the longer southern Sumatra remains in Allied hands the stronger the threat to the Japanese SLOC through the Strait of Molucca. This being a Scenario 2 game, Japan does have more resources to use against Dan. That said he will have to either clear southern Sumatra first or devote enough air power to suppress all the bases in the region. It would take a minimum of a month to clear Sumatra (that is being VERY generous in my estimate). That's a month the Japanese aren't elsewhere on the map causing problems. It Steve instead opts to bypass Sumatra, he better hope he forces autovictory prior to the point where the Allies can start reinforcing those bases on a wholesale basis. Leaving an enemy lodgement in your vitals can lead to bad things happening in 1943 (see my WiTP AAR "Reversal of Fortunes" to see how)

[bradfordkay]

I can't picture Steve bypassing Palembang - it's too vital to his long term needs. It appears that he has been reconning the place recently, so he is probably starting to realize that he has a big fight ahead of him here. It is, however, a fight that he has to take on because I don't believe that he'll be able to do much in the later years of the war without control of Palembang and its oil.

[Canoerebel]

vettim is right. While Japan may be able to ignore the DEI from an economic standpoint in Scenario Two, at least for some time, the great danger would be to allow the Allies to remain in force in eastern DEI into late 1942, at which time the Allies would be able to sustain the position (or at least make a very creditable show of it). If the Allies can get started on the march to Japan from there it's a huge advantage, because from there every step forward could be under cover of LBA and, if the Allied player so chooses, could be fought primarily as major land campaigns up Malaya, through Vietnam, or across Borneo. Those conditions favor the Allies.

It is incumbent on the Japanese player to attend to Sumatra (and Java) in a timely fashion so that it doesn't end up becoming a strategic impediment. I think in nearly all games going forward, the Japanese player will do so. There will be very few where the Allied player is afforded the time needed to create a true fortress in eastern Sumatra.

I'm getting close to that position now. I'm fortunate and Im enjoying it. But it's going to be a tough fought battle. Here's how I think it will develop.

The worst thing Japan could do for itself would be to land directly at Palembang. Doing so will tie down the IJ army for months, allowing the Allies to bring reinforcements into the hex from the rest of the island. It would also allow the Allies to maintain the additional, very important airfields located elsewhere. So, in my opinion, Japan will not land first at Palembang.

That leaves Oosthaven and Benkolen as the invasion targets of choice. I can't create impregnible fortresses there, so that means I've got to try to savage the invasion forces if possible. I will have a chance, though victory is by no means assured. First, the invasion(s) may take place after the Japanese invasion bonus expires. Second, I intend to have lots of capital ships and carriers present. I will throw them against an invasion fleet to try to destroy alot of troops. Third, I should have lots of LBA. Fourth, I have two CD units at Oosthaven and I think I'll have one at Benkolen by then. Fifth, both bases should have about 750 AV behind at least four forts.

The fall of either Benkolen or Oosthaven will allow Japan to move on Palembang, but if the Japanese army has been weakened materially in the effort, the Palembang campaign will take that much longer. The Allied armies at Benkolen and Oosthaven will retreat to Palembang when necessary, so the final likely garrison there may be 2,500 to 3,000 AV or more. With marsh terrain, what will likely be level five forts, and good prep, taking that base is going to be a bear.

If all of this doesn't take Japan well into the summer of '42, it probably wasn't worth it for the Allies. But I think it will, and I think Fortress Palembang will therefore prevent any Japanese effort to move on southern Oz or India.

If Palembang holds in a major way well into the autumn of 1942, Japan may be in trouble.

[paullus99]

Depending on how he responds - here is something to start thinking about (if you haven't already) - where will your respective "home ports" be located for damaged ships? There are probably going to be plenty & it would behoove you to anticipate where you'll be mustering and where he might have to send his ships after battles (Singapore is the obvious choice for him, once he takes it - but you'll be in a position to make his life there very uncomfortable).

At minimum, this is going to be very, very interesting.

[Canoerebel]

2/20/42

Eastern DEI: At least one of the Mini-KBs is at Kendari. The other has to be close by. Allied carriers are probably four days away from rendezvouing at Point Rum, somewhere south west of Timor, where I'll steam around looking for an opportunity to sting.

Western DEI: Japanese fighters swept Palembang for the first time while unescorted IJ bombers hit Singapore. In hopes Steve might be pleased with his efforts on the day, I've moved 135 fighters to Singers. Steve is steadily reconning Palembang and Djambi (I think he wanted to take the latter by para-assault), but he hasn't yet reconned Oosthaven, Benkolen, and Padang. I think once he does, his concern level with go through the roof. He knows something's up, but he hasn't wrapped his head around it yet, methinks. 14th Aussie Bde. to land at Benkolen tomorrow.

China: The Japanese army arrived at Changsha, looked around for a few days, and departed to the north. Well, that was alot of noise for nothing. They could be heading one of three places: the Sian front (no luck for them there as the Allies now have defenses in depth in the forests to the east); Chengte: I'll know at least ten days ahead of time if he's moving this way and I can easily shift troops from Changsha in just two or three days, so no luck for him there; or, a vast circling around to threaten Kweilin area, but I can easily transfer troops by rail from Changsha. In other words, the Japanese are moving around, which takes time, while the Allies seem to be in a position to cover the three most important strategic areas.

Luzon: The Japanese made the mistake of attacking again at Clark Field. In doing so, forts dropped to zero, but odds were once again 1:2. Japanese AV dropped into the 200s and they took more casualties. As a result of all this, I think the Allies might hold for another attack. At the very least, Japan needs to rest before attacking. The next attack, if a rested shock attack, might do the trick. Clark should fall by the end of the month.

Pacific: IJ combat ships sighted south of Fiji. I hope its part of the KB, but the report wasn't detailed enough to say.

[Canoerebel]

To expand on that thought. Up to now, Steve probably thinks - at least subconcsiously - that the Allies are putting everything at Palembang. While he doesn't necessarily like that, he's probably thinking that he can bring five or eight divisions and lots of aircraft to attend to Palembang efficiently after Luzon falls (and possibly Singapore). He probably doesn't yet realize that he'll also have to fight at the likely landing beaches. And I really hope he's not contemplating a major air/sea engagement when he tries to land.

Palembang airfield just went to level five. The Allies are also building at Oosthaven, Benkolen, and Padang, and will eventually start at Lahat (an interior base). If Steve moves on the area in a big way in the next few weeks, he might still have time to attend to the air war before the Allies could get things in shape to try to fight Japan. Even then, he'd have a long battle on the ground. But if he waits longer than that, he may be forced to first take and build up the surrounding fields on Java, etc. to deny them to the Allies and to take full control of the air, thus slowing things down further, giving the Allies more time to build forts and prep.

I am not at all confident in my ability to manage Allied air to win a big battle over Sumatra, but I do think it can be managed to draw major Japanese resources, perhaps sting Japan a few times, and slow things down to the benefit of the strategic situation in Oz and India.

[paullus99]

Your esteemed opponent seems to constantly underestimate the size force necessary to take his objectives in a timely fashion. This has occured at both Clark & Singapore - so the potential exists to really surprise him with a firm stand on the beachs & backed by carriers, you should inflict significant damage.

If all he has in the DEI is the Mini-KB, this could end up as a complete disaster for him. Don't need to tell you to keep an eye on the KB - if they stay out of the fray long enough, you are poised to fight the next campaign on your own terms, not his.

[Canoerebel]

I am assuming that he will employ the KB when the time comes. That's one reason I hope to get a chance to use my carriers to hit a Mini KB or big combat TF soon, before the KB arrives. When the KB does show up, I'll try to nibble at periferies.

[anarchyintheuk]

I'll throw in some advice you probably don't need . . . after all the work you've done to build it up, don't become too attached to the place to let it go. It's just serving a purpose. I only mention it because I've had a problem w/ that sort of thing in games in the past.

Your ac losses might get pretty gruesome as well. Any idea on the numbers of ac and replacements you're willing to commit to the area?

As always, enjoying the aar.

[ny59giants]

Do you have an AF still in your possession that you can upgrade your Dutch planes to Hurricanes and other more modern planes?? I think your battle over southern Sumatra will be fun to watch.

[JohnDillworth]

Can B-17's reach the Tarkan and the big oil ports from Sumatra? If so and there is no house rule against it you could be really annoying and start bombing oil production in 1942.

[Canoerebel]

We have a house rule vs. strategic bombing in China and SEAC until 1944. It don't matter right now, though, cause I still own Tarakan. (Not because of any skillfull playing on my part - I only have six militia, two parakeets, and an armadillo posted at each base on Borneo, but for some reason Steve doesn't seem to want to visit the island.)