Racing the Sunrise: RA 4.0--Japanese Side

[John 3rd]

Whew!

Mark down March 29, 1942 team:
1. Newcastle FALLS to a 757-1 Attack!
2. Port Kembla FALLS to a 637-1 Attack!!
3. Tamworth FALLS to a 9-1 Attack by Paratroopers!!!

Sydney is now isolated with 6 units in it.

ORDERS:
From Newcastle: 21st, 38th, and 56th ID to Sydney
From Kembla: 18th and 33rd ID to Sydney with 48th Ordered to head for MELBOURNE!

Planes fly in to use the AFs: 81 Zero, 36 Betty-Nell, 27 Val, 27 Kate.

KB moves SW to support and Cover the Sale Landing.

[John 3rd]

Only one attack comes in on the KB this day but it is a big one.

Kido Butai puts up 52 Zero for CAP and they have to fight 32 P-40 and Buffalo escorting 29 SBD. The CAP does not do too well. They shoot down 11 Fighters and only 3 SBD. This leaves 26 SBDs to dive on the TF. CRAP! They makes their attacks, two more fall to AA, and hit one ship: KONGO! Thank goodness...

Move SW to Cover Sale and prepare for a Melbourne Port Strike!

[Q-Ball]

Wow, that's big. Not sure what I would do as Allies at this point, probably circle the wagons around Melbourne, but even that won't hold if you have bases in Tasmania, which I think you do.

I think you are in great shape to completely conquer Australia, which to my knowledge has not been accomplished in a PBEM to date, at least not one that was documented. Has it?

And, the next question: Can the Allies recover from this?

Losing Australia is unquestionably bad, but it doesn't have to be fatal. The biggest problem is loss of tons of bases, but the permanent losses in troops are not a huge deal, since it's mostly Australian Home Guards etc. that are stuck on the continent anyway long-term.

If I were the Allies, I would land in the DEI and think about a landing on the Kuriles/Hokkaido, and just make Australia irrelevant.

[Historiker]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Wow, that's big. Not sure what I would do as Allies at this point, probably circle the wagons around Melbourne, but even that won't hold if you have bases in Tasmania, which I think you do.

I think you are in great shape to completely conquer Australia, which to my knowledge has not been accomplished in a PBEM to date, at least not one that was documented. Has it?

And, the next question: Can the Allies recover from this?

Losing Australia is unquestionably bad, but it doesn't have to be fatal. The biggest problem is loss of tons of bases, but the permanent losses in troops are not a huge deal, since it's mostly Australian Home Guards etc. that are stuck on the continent anyway long-term.

If I were the Allies, I would land in the DEI and think about a landing on the Kuriles/Hokkaido, and just make Australia irrelevant.

Why shouldn't the Allies recover? I wonder, whether John plays for Auto-Victory and will end the game with this. If not, he has only opened a huge area he has to defend. The industry will be worth it for now, but I always want to include the strategic perspective as well.

[John 3rd]

I NEVER play for auto-victory. We are in the war for the long haul.

My thinking is that there is every chance I can take Melbourne fairly easily. The last of the unknown Aussie ID has been accounted for with the 1st ID being at Emerald. This means 1st-5th are all known. NONE are in an immediate position to slow this down. I'm already shifting into the pursuit/exploitation phase of this operation. Taking Sale with massively raise the stakes. I'll hit Melbourne the following turn with Betty-Nell and the KB so I can damage shipping. Sale shall have an Air Flotilla and 65th Brig with a TK Reg following on. Think I will lift an ID or two once Sidney Falls and move it closer to get there faster.

Concur that Lew MUST shift my focus away from Aust. Moves:

1. This is why I continue to add troops to the Kuriles and Aleutians.
2. I am HUGELY vulnerable in the DEI. However his recent CV defeat really helps buy me at least a month or so. Cocos makes a decent base for him to operate from and it will begin to receive my STF's attention again.
3. Have begun to concentrate more Warships in the Central Pacific.

Different Note:
I am using SOOOOOOO much of the merchant marine that I've already pulled 35 ships from the IF and am sending them out to begin hauling resources. Also have ships that can upgrade to ARs starting in April and I want those.

Total Cost for the Landings right now is only 7 AK and 1 AP. Have about 8 more AK-AP damaged as well as Akagi, a 2 CA, and a CL.

[John 3rd]

Hiryu and her escorts continue to wreak havoc upon shipping SW of Perth.

Two small (1 CA and 3 DD) TF sink 2 AK, 2 AP, and a TK while Hiryu's fliers add three more AK to the tally. The 2 STF return to augment Hiryu's Screen and she is ordered SE.

After talking with Michael, I divide the Port Augusta IF into a slow TF (12 Knots) and a faster TF (15 Knots). Shoudl be able to arrive at Augusta a day or two earlier with the 15 Kn TF.

[John 3rd]

The Flagship of the Kaigun successfully detaches from the area of danger and makes her way towards Koumac. Things look even better then yesterday as she moves from Sys 47--Flot 8-Eng 13--Fires 11 to Sys 47--Flot 9--Eng 12--Fires 1. Get those fires OUT! Slight upticks in things are not too bad. Don't like the high SYS Dam since other problems can grow from that. It is 3 days to Koumac...

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Wow, that's big. Not sure what I would do as Allies at this point, probably circle the wagons around Melbourne, but even that won't hold if you have bases in Tasmania, which I think you do.

I think you are in great shape to completely conquer Australia, which to my knowledge has not been accomplished in a PBEM to date, at least not one that was documented. Has it?

And, the next question: Can the Allies recover from this?

Losing Australia is unquestionably bad, but it doesn't have to be fatal. The biggest problem is loss of tons of bases, but the permanent losses in troops are not a huge deal, since it's mostly Australian Home Guards etc. that are stuck on the continent anyway long-term.

If I were the Allies, I would land in the DEI and think about a landing on the Kuriles/Hokkaido, and just make Australia irrelevant.

Want to note that in RA the IJA is not augmented hardly at all. This whole thing is being done with a basic Imperial Army found in Scen 1...

[John 3rd]

Just got a 2nd turn in from my opponent. GREAT!

We're having our church over for a backyard BBQ tonight so I probably won't get to it until later but I'll try to get it in.

[khyberbill]

Want to note that in RA the IJA is not augmented hardly at all. This whole thing is being done with a basic Imperial Army found in Scen 1...

And the IJN combat forces in RA are ???

[khyberbill]

I think you are in great shape to completely conquer Australia, which to my knowledge has not been accomplished in a PBEM to date, at least not one that was documented. Has it?

I did take Australia playing WITP in a PBEM. No AAR though. Ironically, it was my first and only game as Japan in any version of Pacific War and the game was against a fairly new player. The game ended at the gates of Canberra with the rest of Oz flying the Rising Sun. And now I am playing the same person in AE although this time as Allies.

[FatR]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Here is a question to ponder while I get things moving: What do I do with all the factories, aircraft producers, repair yards, etc...in Sydney once I have them? Didn't think about the fact that there will be a pretty large expansion of the Japanese War Industry pretty soon...COOL!

HI isn't really worth anything, except perhaps the dubious economy of fuel on ferrying it to Australia instead of Home Islands. Japanese HI capacity at the start already exceeds capabilities of the oil production that they have or can obtain in DEI. IMO, captured HI in places other than DEI should never even be repaired. Aircraft factories shouldn't work for Japanese, or I think so...

LI, though, is a major boon. It is also not worth repairing, but if you manage to take several significant centers intact, it can help you weather the shortage of supply that you're likely to face in late 1943 and after. (In fact, you should start considering your supply situation right now and at least avoid building up bases that aren't likely to be relevant.)

[FatR]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

If I were the Allies, I would land in the DEI and think about a landing on the Kuriles/Hokkaido, and just make Australia irrelevant.

I don't think that Java or eastern DEI are options without possession of Australia. This leaves Sumatra to fortify. In the north Japanese now have Aleutians as their first line of defense, I don't think it is reasonable to land at Kuriles without clearing Japs from there first, so there will be some warning.

[John 3rd]

There are additional Japanese Naval LCU within RA now:

1. 9th Air Fleet HQ, 3 Air Flotilla, 3 Large BF
2. The SNLF units are grouped together into Assault Brigades. No real addition of firepower numbers but they do pack a solid 180-200 in AV (3 regular SNLF combined into the bigger Brigade).
3. About a dozen Atoll Defense Units in lieu of Naval Guard units. The ADU add a decent amount of CD plus the Infantry of the Naval Guard.
4. 3 starting FIXED CD units in the Kuriles plus 3 more that arrive during 1943.
5. Several small IJN Pioneer Bn (6 Eng Squads with 2 Eng Vehicles)
6. Roughly 10 Heavy AA Bn (24 88mm).

[John 3rd]

Concur regarding fortifying Sumatra. Will send some of my reinforcements sitting in Tokyo for important points there.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: FatR

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Here is a question to ponder while I get things moving: What do I do with all the factories, aircraft producers, repair yards, etc...in Sydney once I have them? Didn't think about the fact that there will be a pretty large expansion of the Japanese War Industry pretty soon...COOL!

HI isn't really worth anything, except perhaps the dubious economy of fuel on ferrying it to Australia instead of Home Islands. Japanese HI capacity at the start already exceeds capabilities of the oil production that they have or can obtain in DEI. IMO, captured HI in places other than DEI should never even be repaired. Aircraft factories shouldn't work for Japanese, or I think so...

LI, though, is a major boon. It is also not worth repairing, but if you manage to take several significant centers intact, it can help you weather the shortage of supply that you're likely to face in late 1943 and after. (In fact, you should start considering your supply situation right now and at least avoid building up bases that aren't likely to be relevant.)

Was talking to Michael about this earlier and I am willing to run small TK TF from the small Oil Centers at Babo and Boela to Townsville. We'll use that to get some HI production out of Aussieland. Might divert the occasional large TK TF from Palembang. We'll have to see how that goes.

ANYTHING extra will only help the Japanese economy.

Also get 5 aircraft production lines. Hmmmm...what shall we produce?

Don't forget two repair shipyards also...HIGHLY useful!

[pharmy]

I thought the a/c factories just convert to vehicle factories

[John 3rd]

CRAP! Here you go having the audacity to quote the RULEBOOK at me! We don't need no stinkin rules...

OK. Can still produce stuff---just not what I want.

Have an update to do. No major action but things continue to look GREAT!

[pharmy]

I was hoping you know something I don't [&:] I have half of all SNLF squads and 3 IJA regs in Noumea and 6 divs just freed from Java and Bataan on my way down there to emulate you in my vs AI game. So much effort and all I got for one was a very long supply line that will tie down most of KB in fruitless commerce raiding and being a force in being to deter strikes against the south, for it to mean anything [:(] And its a line that can be severed at any point between Truk and Luganville. Feel so vulnerable in Centpac that I feel like removing mini-KB plus Junyo/Hiyo from the Indian ocean. I can of course thicken the wedge by taking, either the east coast of Australia or Samoa, Baker and Tonga Island along with Phoenix and Ellice Islands, but that's a huge ocean to patrol and north of Rabaul it still leaves me vulnerable till the arrival of the Shokaku Kais. The Ellice Islands can't even support an LBA base. In an AI game it probably won't matter, but any human player could easily punish me. I'm playing May in one of your 3 point something RA scenarios (with stacking limits) and the tanker fleet can barely feed Japan as it is, supporting ops down here is a huge hit on fuel reserves (factoring in the opportunity cost of not carrying SRA fuel back to Japan makes it a disastrous economic blunder) And if the manual is true, then even if I wrestle Southeast Australia from the Allies, the HI is halved(although with the amount of tankers that might be a blessing).

Although I think its a bold move that you are doing and it makes the AAR hell of fun to read, I feel that you have to play for an autowin, otherwise your opponent can probably cut you and your occupation army off in Australia in 43/early 44 and take the SRA from you (I'm guessing thats where the divisions in Aus would be if not employed on the southern continent) You now need two navies like the US Atlantic and Pacific fleet (with the Bass Strait/Horn Island/Luzon-Moluccas being your Panama canals)

[John 3rd]

Good thoughts Sir.

I am not concerned about my troops being trapped in Australia. As soon as the war their winds down I will pull out all but about 4 ID. They, and some smaller Inf units, will serve as the garrison while the rest get moved around. Additionally I am thinking about a follow-on Operation that looks to the east and a pair of BIG ISLANDS...

Got a turn in from Lew and need to run it.