Notes from a Small Island

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Where applicable...

" Long Range CAP over Air Combat TF’s is only 20% as effective as over other units since it’s harder to coordinate with an Air Combat TF that is constantly changing course and is using radio silence. "

Yeah, I don't think that's applying here.

ORIGINAL: witpqs

It seems I was understanding right in the first place - LRCAP is being used (true?). If it doesn't work in this case (as just described by Lokasenna), so what? That's not a bug.

Right, the point I was trying to make (and I posted examples of air strikes from MM against my 700+ plane CAP in obvert's AAR making this point) was that bombers do get through anyway (admittedly not all that many). That part of it, at least, is definitely not a bug. The only part that's weird is seemingly the cooperating sweeps having short combats and potentially leading to a short combat for the CAP vs strike escorts. LRCAP combat being short or nonexistent is nothing new - it happens all the time, despite planes being "there" in the combat animation.

Here are the examples I posted on obvert's side. The CAP outnumbers the raid by 8:1 in the first example (and the escorts by almost 20:1), by more than 15:1 in the second example (and by 75:1 on just the escorts), and by about 6:1 total in the third example. And still a handful of planes attempted attacks against a layered CAP (from 2K up to 36K with plenty of planes scattered all over) that had more than 30 minutes of warning, on range 0 with 80+% set to CAP. This is just from one day - I probably have dozens more examples I could find.

No LRCAP was harmed in the making of this quote.

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 30,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2a Jill x 52
J2M3 Jack x 23
Ki-84r Frank x 14

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 173
F4U-1D Corsair x 296
F6F-3 Hellcat x 99
F6F-5 Hellcat x 162

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2a Jill: 28 destroyed
J2M3 Jack: 5 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------

Raid detected at 116 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y4 Judy x 44
N1K5-J George x 9

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 173
F4U-1D Corsair x 292
F6F-3 Hellcat x 99
F6F-5 Hellcat x 157

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y4 Judy: 24 destroyed
N1K5-J George: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 5 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVL Independence

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 10000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb

--------------------------------------

Japanese aircraft
N1K2-J George x 10
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 27
Ki-48-IIc Lily x 48
Ki-84a Frank x 14

Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 157
F4U-1D Corsair x 287
F6F-3 Hellcat x 97
F6F-5 Hellcat x 153

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 3 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 6 destroyed
Ki-48-IIc Lily: 30 destroyed
Ki-48-IIc Lily: 1 destroyed by flak
Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 4 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB Queen Elizabeth

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x Ki-48-IIc Lily releasing from 10000'

[palioboy2]

Do you have a different vision for strategic bombing in this game? Possibly something more pointed at a single industry. Trying to take out one of the cogs like HI or his aircraft production instead of general bombing?

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

Do you have a different vision for strategic bombing in this game? Possibly something more pointed at a single industry. Trying to take out one of the cogs like HI or his aircraft production instead of general bombing?

Second this sentiment and it goes for both of your current AAR games.

Especially in the game against J3, I would have concentrated on destroying the aircraft and engine factories, primarily in the sweet target of Harbin, but in other locales as well.

[Canoerebel]

Concentrating on a specific industries or a small spread of industries has the downside of making the targeting too predictable.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Concentrating on a specific industries or a small spread of industries has the downside of making the targeting too predictable.

Well, you get what you pay for. I guess the question is what is more important: scoring points, or destroying certain key industry? They are correlated, of course, but which is the primary objective?

[MakeeLearn]

Warning Leaflets

Telling the targets in advance can be a psychological weapon, even in the game.
It can give the added bonus of providing something to "Sweep" up.

[Canoerebel]

The highest priority is preserving the bomber force as best as possible. Telegraphing targeting doesn't help. Spreading the targets does. It's still early in the war with a long way to go. THus far I've mostly targeted Resources, Heavy Industry, Light Industry and a few aircraft factories. But the first three are so common that Erik can't pick a pattern. I've hit daytime, nighttime, close, far off, targets reconned, targets not reconned, etc.

[palioboy2]

I agree with the point of remaining unpredictable and harboring your forces at this point. But would it not be possible to strategically target HI (for example) while still maintaining operational flexibility?

[Lovejoy]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Warning Leaflets

Telling the targets in advance can be a psychological weapon, even in the game.
It can give the added bonus of providing something to "Sweep" up.

Does anyone know what the card says?

[Barb]

ORIGINAL: Lovejoy

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Warning Leaflets

Telling the targets in advance can be a psychological weapon, even in the game.
It can give the added bonus of providing something to "Sweep" up.

Does anyone know what the card says?

http://navonanumis.blogspot.sk/2015/02/b-29-superfortress-bombing-raid-warning.html

[MakeeLearn]

Does anyone know what the card says?

https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for- ... cle07.html
Front side of OWI notice #2106, dubbed the “LeMay bombing leaflet,” which was delivered to Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and 33 other Japanese cities on 1 August 1945.

“Read this carefully as it may save your life or the life of a relative or friend. In the next few days, some or all of the cities named on the reverse side will be destroyed by American bombs. These cities contain military installations and workshops or factories which produce military goods. We are determined to destroy all of the tools of the military clique which they are using to prolong this useless war. But, unfortunately, bombs have no eyes. So, in accordance with America's humanitarian policies, the American Air Force, which does not wish to injure innocent people, now gives you warning to evacuate the cities named and save your lives. America is not fighting the Japanese people but is fighting the military clique which has enslaved the Japanese people. The peace which America will bring will free the people from the oppression of the military clique and mean the emergence of a new and better Japan. You can restore peace by demanding new and good leaders who will end the war. We cannot promise that only these cities will be among those attacked but some or all of them will be, so heed this warning and evacuate these cities immediately.”

[dave sindel]

A bump to keep this AAR from falling to page 2. Any updates on your side Canoerebel ?

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for saving me from oblivion, Dave.

I typed a long response yesterday and my old work computer ate it. I typed a long response this morning and my newer home computer ate it. Since typing long responses that vanish is annoying, I'll postpone the update for awhile until I recover from the involuntary purge.

I'll just say that Erik and I are completing a turn every two to three days. The game with John III is the primary speed bump. Turns there now take from two to five hours. Sometimes John and I play two or three games a day, which leaves no time for eating, sleeping and breathing. Erik understands and has been graciously patient. The pace will pick up in a week or two, I think.

[dave sindel]

I can imagine that the game with JIII is very time consuming. And I get the sense that one is building to a dramatic finish. I have mixed emotions about that game. I will hate to see it end, as I have thoroughly enjoyed your AAR, and all of the tangents it has taken. But I also look forward to seeing how you and Erik match wits.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Dave.

There's lots of behind the scenes action and thinking going on. Nothing sexy to anybody but me, but it does advance the cause. I'll post in detail later.

The game has lost a bit of luster with the weird air mechanics problem over Shikuka. Erik and I should be embroiled in a fierce and constant battle there but instead we have kind of a false war. Erik's searching for other ways to advance his own cause. But there's no denying that the game veered away from what we excepted. It'll take some new and eventually some very exciting course that will probably be just as much fun (kind of like his game with Lowpe suddenly veered from the expected).

[Canoerebel]

7/12/44

Raid on Chinmapo: Because that's what inveterate raiders do.

Wait....that was a different game; a different life; dimly remembered; an artifact of the distant past; already mired in the mists of antiquity.

This was MY raid. And anyone with eyes knows I'm neither inveterate nor an invertebrate.

I captured this screen about five days ago because it shows that Obvert is unusually alert (likely) or got lucky by just happening to have fighters near an obscure locale on the day Allied bombers arrived (unlikely).

Despite the fighter opposition, the raid was a success. My hope is that it continues to persuade Erik to spread his defenses everywhere within range. But the biggest lesson learned was on my part: This guy is proactive.

My B-29-1s at Shikuka have targeted Home Island industry at night and in the daylight, low and high, escorted and unescorted, against bases under recon or not. But to this point I'd only targeted mainland Asia once (Harbin) early on. I didn't think there was a chance he'd have Chinmapo protected - hey, it's a level 0 airfield (I think). So he must've had LRCAP up.

Like I said, I learned something about my opponent.

[witpqs]

Because that's what inveterate raiders do.

[:D]

[Barb]

Could have been the fighters are based at Heijo with range 1+ or at Keijo with range 3+. One has to take notice of the comment around the list of intercepting units. It is quite normal that they were drawn toward the raid with some detection time (although "Spotted" and 12 minutes is not much - that means no Radar at target hex).

[Canoerebel]

There's a game going on behind the game (I think), but first I'll bring you up to date on what's going on where. We're a good month, maybe more, since my last update.

1. The Naval Battle of the Kuriles left me with a bunch of damaged carriers, including some with moderately heavy damage. To the amazement of the civilized world, these managed to escape the scene of the fighting; then managed to avoid getting sunk by enemy subs; then they managed to avoid springing leaks and sinking on the way to shipyards. All of the carriers have been in yards for two weeks or better. Several are already finished with repairs. The most damaged ship - Lexington - will need about 100 more days.

2. I stood down my 4EB for awhile, as Erik attended properly to his defenses. They campaign has resumed. For awhile, I'm going to work on nighttime raids. Damage inflicted will be less but my hope is that it works in the long term - less attrition to my bombers so that they can fly more frequently.

3. Erik's navy has mostly stood down the past three weeks or more. His carriers are currently parked at Tokyo, in plain view. Neither is he running big air ops against Shikuka, probably due to the weird bug we've encountered.

4. He is strongly reinforcing the Kuriles, and I'm letting him. That's part of the game within a game, which I'll explain later.

5. My achillee's heel is combat TFs at Shikuka. If Erik gets through them, he can destroy hundreds and hundreds of ships plus an air force. I have a decent number of combat ships there but it probably looks, to him, more menacing than it actually is.

6. Ten days ago, four USN DDs went west from the Aleutians and sank a few E-class ships near Paramushiro. One DD needed some yard time; the other three I sent sprinting to Shikuka. They made it without incident and without apparent observation. That was strange. That's not much in the way of reinforcements, but it helps.

7. Erik did not deploy his subs deep into Allied territory, which surprised me given the number of juicy hurting ships I had after the battle. He has some lurking around the western Aleutians now. I'm hoping they come no further east.

8. So it's been pretty quiet in NoPac, given the enormity of the invasion that took place. Strat bombing takes place and Erik reinforces his islands, but otherwise its pretty doggone quiet.

9. Quiet elsewhere in the Pacific.

10. Quiet in Burma and China.

[Canoerebel]

The quiet everywhere has a purpose, from my perspective. Whether it's having the effect I'm hoping it's having is debatable.

When Death Star retired from the Great Naval Battle, Erik lost contact with them pretty quickly (as noted, he didn't send his subs to chase and keep tabs). At present, I don't think he knows where they are. I don't think he's known for weeks. I'm hoping he's allowing for them to show up nearly anywhere at any time. Given their apparent disappearance from NoPac and the quiet that's descended on that theater, I'm hoping he's mulling over CenPac and SWPac and will eventually consider Any-Pac a possibility.

So I would prefer not to reveal the location of DS or otherwise tip my hand, especially to the current vulnerability I feel in regards to Shikuka. That's partly why I haven't molested his reinforcement missions to the Kuriles. That and the fact that I can't afford to lose any combat ships.

In about a month, DS will be ready for action and considerably stronger than ever (reinforcements keep arriving). I know where it's going and what it will be doing. I know where the Allies will focus amphib ops and ground campaigns through the late autum months. The quieter things are until I'm ready to move, the better.

This game is built for the long run, so I'm not going to panic due to lack of progress or to a perceived need to achieve auto victory in 1945. I'm going to work my angles as carefully as possible, waiting for a moment when the enemy is finally weak enough to hammer.