The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[CaptBeefheart]

AE at its finest.

Good luck!

Cheers,
CC

[Canoerebel]

5/23/43

Battle of Sumatra: The Four Kongos bombard Sabang. No sign of the KB. On the west road, 1st Marines (reduced to 220 well-rested AV and supported by tanks and some other small units) is tasked with holding back one infantry division and one tank division. In the jungle-rough terrain, I think that'll work, or at least as long as I need it to. On the east road, John's stack hasn't advanced into Sabang yet. He probably intends for them to arrive all at once to avoid any chance of defeat in detail.

Operation Circus: Recent SigInt has been interesting, including a report of 15th Div. bound for Saipan (recently purchased out of China and reported bound to Medan) and 116th Div. at Darwin. The latter is hard intel (unlike "bound for," which can be manipulated to fake) and is solid evidence that John is worried about the Java Sea region.

Out on the perimeter, funny stuff is going on. I think John has elected to abandon Noumea and Luganville; or, rather, to allow the garrisons to fight without forward support of ships or massed air. I even have patrols (ranging from lone YMS to a three-DD TF) that are patrolling almost as far north as Santa CRuz Islands without detection!

Other YMS have been detected outside the Marshalls. And, over Sumatra way, John's getting sightings of three DDs not far from the west coast (I'd like to know what he makes of that). He's stood down all his air, obviously deciding not to give away any intel as to his air strength and deployment.

And here it is May 23....

[witpqs]

It's a good thing this is a series instead of a movie or mini-series!

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here are more specifics as to which divisions are at Sabang: four USA, one Marine, one Brit, and one Indian. Seven in total. Two of these are still in decent shape. The rest have been beat up through long campaigning, and I long ago turned off replacements and upgrades to minimize supply draw (correctly recognizing that combat strength wasn't my limiting factor, supply was).

And there are two USA arty units, three tank units, fragments of a couple of RCTs, two good combat engineer units, etc.

That is about the right risk potential. Spread it out. You will replace the US divisions easily enough. There are always plenty of devices and you can break down a couple of regimental units to flush out the squads. Then Indian unit is the same, I just break down independent Indian brigades of which there are lots. You will most likely never get the chance to rebuild the British Division. All of the support units should not be a factor. Tank units are usually not a problem unless it is the big Indian tank brigades.

I hate to see all those units go down but in RA, the Japanese player does not get much more oil production, so the damage to the big oil center is probably the biggest win for you. And of course,taking the initiative away. Biggest thing is have you killed any Japanese divisions? By mid 1943, the Allied need to start killing off Japanese ground units, or shattering them and leaving them to rot so they cannot be rebuilt.

[Wuffer]

following your logic the US divisions could 'left rot', too.
they will be missed, but c'est la guerre.

At least Canoe was able to exchange soon be obsolete a/c, I wonder how much fuel and supply this whole campaign has cost so far for the Empire, as I still think the burden is too high for his economy in the long run - the fighting has just begun, this will become a very long war...

[JeffroK]

The sacrifice on Sumatra & Malaya are only worthwhile if CIRCUS is 150% effective, disrupting JIII defences and resulting in substantial CV losses (5+ CV sunk).
The 7+ Divisions, large numbers of non combat support units, Shipping and hundreds (thousands) of aircraft ARE a substantial loss, swapping them for some South Pacific/DEI malaria ridden swamp is not going to win the game.

Comparisons of Longstreet, Jackson, Lee or even McClellan are wrong, its the tactics of Haig or Navarre.

Equally the strategy of JIII has been odd, while he has you by the throat on Sumatra he should have been using his 15+ CV to run around smashing Allied positions, damn the Fuel loss. win the war in 1943.

CIRCUS is a month late, Sabang is lost so diversions will not help, the new front will get 100% of JIII's attention so you cant set up another "Anzio" I hope CIRCUS results in a reaction which gathers so much attention that other fronts can move forward and that by good management or luck, results in massive losses to JIII's empire, but I fear those 7+ Divisions will be sorely lost

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

The sacrifice on Sumatra & Malaya are only worthwhile if CIRCUS is 150% effective, disrupting JIII defences and resulting in substantial CV losses (5+ CV sunk).
The 7+ Divisions, large numbers of non combat support units, Shipping and hundreds (thousands) of aircraft ARE a substantial loss, swapping them for some South Pacific/DEI malaria ridden swamp is not going to win the game.

Comparisons of Longstreet, Jackson, Lee or even McClellan are wrong, its the tactics of Haig or Navarre.

Equally the strategy of JIII has been odd, while he has you by the throat on Sumatra he should have been using his 15+ CV to run around smashing Allied positions, damn the Fuel loss. win the war in 1943.

CIRCUS is a month late, Sabang is lost so diversions will not help, the new front will get 100% of JIII's attention so you cant set up another "Anzio" I hope CIRCUS results in a reaction which gathers so much attention that other fronts can move forward and that by good management or luck, results in massive losses to JIII's empire, but I fear those 7+ Divisions will be sorely lost

You have a good point about the losses (I would not have risked it) but John had to hold the full KB in place for almost all of the time that Dan was in Sumatra. If not Canoe could have reinforced Sumatra or just pulled out after smashing things up a bit. It is a finely run thing but if Circus draws his full attention without Sumatra being secured then Dan can switch his now potent carrier force back and either reinforce or withdraw. At this stage of the war John can't really afford to split up his carriers to fight the intact Allied carrier force. But it is going to be a close one for Dan. John still has a potent carrier force but his surface force losses have been substantial. In the end this is a naval game and I see nothing wrong about an action that sinks Japanese ships.

In the next sixty days the Allies are going to get about 25 new DDs. The faucet really begins to flow from now on.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Equally the strategy of JIII has been odd, while he has you by the throat on Sumatra he should have been using his 15+ CV to run around smashing Allied positions, damn the Fuel loss. win the war in 1943.

This is not good strategy for Japan to last until the bitter end. It's fun, and it's John III's MO, but in the end using your resources for strategic, not tactical purposes, will get the Japanese closer to a good result on VPs. He has actually been surprisingly good to that end, forcing the issue to eventually get the big bag of Allied troop points on Sumatra without having to pay in territorial losses elsewhere or catastrophic losses to his fleet, and it's mid 43. The Allies are supposed to be moving forward now.

The burden is always with the Allies to prove they can take back territory at appropriate cost. Japan has to make them pay. We get to watch. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

5/24/43

Battle of Sumatra: Yamato and Friends bombard Sabang. On the west road, the enemy stack (one infantry div., one armored div.) attack 1st Marine Div. (reinforced), achieving 1:3 odds. Casualties fairly light. No go here unless John can use bombardments to disrupt the defenders. No advance to Sabang (yet) on the east side.

More importantly, Sumatra served as the distraction long enough for Circus to unfold now. At a minimum, the enemy BBs won't be a factor. That's a lot. If the carriers are likewise committed near or at Sumatra, all the better.

Operation Circus: John picked up a sizeable Allied group of TFs equal distant from Hokkaido, the Aleutians and Marcus. Feint? Circus? Now, all over the map, John's "radar" has blips - from Ceylon to Oz, to SoPac to CenPac to NoPac. That's enough noise. It's time for the curtain to come up.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Equally the strategy of JIII has been odd, while he has you by the throat on Sumatra he should have been using his 15+ CV to run around smashing Allied positions, damn the Fuel loss. win the war in 1943.

This is not good strategy for Japan to last until the bitter end. It's fun, and it's John III's MO, but in the end using your resources for strategic, not tactical purposes, will get the Japanese closer to a good result on VPs. He has actually been surprisingly good to that end, forcing the issue to eventually get the big bag of Allied troop points on Sumatra without having to pay in territorial losses elsewhere or catastrophic losses to his fleet, and it's mid 43. The Allies are supposed to be moving forward now.

The burden is always with the Allies to prove they can take back territory at appropriate cost. Japan has to make them pay. We get to watch. [:)]

Maybe in Vanilla, but bot in one of JIII's wet dream mods.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: JeffK

The sacrifice on Sumatra & Malaya are only worthwhile if CIRCUS is 150% effective, disrupting JIII defences and resulting in substantial CV losses (5+ CV sunk).
The 7+ Divisions, large numbers of non combat support units, Shipping and hundreds (thousands) of aircraft ARE a substantial loss, swapping them for some South Pacific/DEI malaria ridden swamp is not going to win the game.

Comparisons of Longstreet, Jackson, Lee or even McClellan are wrong, its the tactics of Haig or Navarre.

Equally the strategy of JIII has been odd, while he has you by the throat on Sumatra he should have been using his 15+ CV to run around smashing Allied positions, damn the Fuel loss. win the war in 1943.

CIRCUS is a month late, Sabang is lost so diversions will not help, the new front will get 100% of JIII's attention so you cant set up another "Anzio" I hope CIRCUS results in a reaction which gathers so much attention that other fronts can move forward and that by good management or luck, results in massive losses to JIII's empire, but I fear those 7+ Divisions will be sorely lost

You have a good point about the losses (I would not have risked it) but John had to hold the full KB in place for almost all of the time that Dan was in Sumatra. If not Canoe could have reinforced Sumatra or just pulled out after smashing things up a bit. It is a finely run thing but if Circus draws his full attention without Sumatra being secured then Dan can switch his now potent carrier force back and either reinforce or withdraw. At this stage of the war John can't really afford to split up his carriers to fight the intact Allied carrier force. But it is going to be a close one for Dan. John still has a potent carrier force but his surface force losses have been substantial. In the end this is a naval game and I see nothing wrong about an action that sinks Japanese ships.

In the next sixty days the Allies are going to get about 25 new DDs. The faucet really begins to flow from now on.

Now potent CV force, what are the exp ratings for the aircrew, probably outnumbered 2-1 in CV, extra AAA for the IJN.

japan doesnt need ships to hold on, the USN needs ships to get there.

[desicat]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

The sacrifice on Sumatra & Malaya are only worthwhile if CIRCUS is 150% effective, disrupting JIII defences and resulting in substantial CV losses (5+ CV sunk).
The 7+ Divisions, large numbers of non combat support units, Shipping and hundreds (thousands) of aircraft ARE a substantial loss, swapping them for some South Pacific/DEI malaria ridden swamp is not going to win the game.

Comparisons of Longstreet, Jackson, Lee or even McClellan are wrong, its the tactics of Haig or Navarre.

Equally the strategy of JIII has been odd, while he has you by the throat on Sumatra he should have been using his 15+ CV to run around smashing Allied positions, damn the Fuel loss. win the war in 1943.

CIRCUS is a month late, Sabang is lost so diversions will not help, the new front will get 100% of JIII's attention so you cant set up another "Anzio" I hope CIRCUS results in a reaction which gathers so much attention that other fronts can move forward and that by good management or luck, results in massive losses to JIII's empire, but I fear those 7+ Divisions will be sorely lost

Japan in this Mod is hyper powerful. The date of the last turn was 5/24/43 and the Allies have a toe hold in Sumatra, are driving north in Oz - with another major invasion (or 2?) imminent, what has Japan accomplished?

Take a look at all the other current AAR's, the Japanese players have fine tuned the game to the point where India is routinely invaded and Oz is heavily invested on both coasts. Heck. Mandrake is currently barely holding Tasmania and Southern Oz.

CR's early attack stopped the Japanese expansion cold in this game. Of course the costs were going to be heavy, but with Allied production finally kicking in the Japanese are doomed. The Japanese perimeter that is way smaller than normal, their naval losses have been high (except for CV's), upgrades have been delayed, and their ground forces are poorly positioned and probably have poor prep levels for their locations and possible destinations. No, this has been a major victory for CR, he just needs to finish it out.

[Canoerebel]

Yep, desicat is exactly right.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Weeee I finally made it through.
A bit late but that 4E bomber strike on Singapore was fantastic. I am reading your AARs since your match against Miller and they get better and better. So thanks for all that good read.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: desicat

ORIGINAL: JeffK

The sacrifice on Sumatra & Malaya are only worthwhile if CIRCUS is 150% effective, disrupting JIII defences and resulting in substantial CV losses (5+ CV sunk).
The 7+ Divisions, large numbers of non combat support units, Shipping and hundreds (thousands) of aircraft ARE a substantial loss, swapping them for some South Pacific/DEI malaria ridden swamp is not going to win the game.

Comparisons of Longstreet, Jackson, Lee or even McClellan are wrong, its the tactics of Haig or Navarre.

Equally the strategy of JIII has been odd, while he has you by the throat on Sumatra he should have been using his 15+ CV to run around smashing Allied positions, damn the Fuel loss. win the war in 1943.

CIRCUS is a month late, Sabang is lost so diversions will not help, the new front will get 100% of JIII's attention so you cant set up another "Anzio" I hope CIRCUS results in a reaction which gathers so much attention that other fronts can move forward and that by good management or luck, results in massive losses to JIII's empire, but I fear those 7+ Divisions will be sorely lost

Japan in this Mod is hyper powerful. The date of the last turn was 5/24/43 and the Allies have a toe hold in Sumatra, are driving north in Oz - with another major invasion (or 2?) imminent, what has Japan accomplished?

Take a look at all the other current AAR's, the Japanese players have fine tuned the game to the point where India is routinely invaded and Oz is heavily invested on both coasts. Heck. Mandrake is currently barely holding Tasmania and Southern Oz.

CR's early attack stopped the Japanese expansion cold in this game. Of course the costs were going to be heavy, but with Allied production finally kicking in the Japanese are doomed. The Japanese perimeter that is way smaller than normal, their naval losses have been high (except for CV's), upgrades have been delayed, and their ground forces are poorly positioned and probably have poor prep levels for their locations and possible destinations. No, this has been a major victory for CR, he just needs to finish it out.

I hate to miss the bandwagon here, but as someone who has played both sides I can tell you that the farther the Japanese go in 42-43 the better it is for the Allies, regardless of scenario. Even this one doesn't give help to the economy, and Japan stops fighting when supply and fuel run out. I've been run out of supply and fuel after doing some of the things you'e talking about in 42, and in spite of all of the flash and bang of these exciting early campaigns, it's not the best strategy for the IJ to last as a competitive force late.

India, OZ, the forays into Alaska and strategically bombing the West Coast, those are all about trying for AV. That's fine, and it's fun, but it is not a poor strategy to keep a solid defensible and historical perimeter. Check with Pax Mondo, Mike Solli and a number of other players who pay attention to the economic side of things. It's a game in itself. More territory and farther flung battles don't help it stay healthy.

Fighting and sinking ships and taking points off the Allies in 45 and lasting to keep a draw or squeek out a win in 46, those are real accomplishments! [;)]

My pompoms will come out for both players if they take this game into 46!

[desicat]

As someone who has played both sides I can tell you that the farther the Japanese go in 42-43 the better it is for the Allies, regardless of scenario. Even this one doesn't give help to the economy, and Japan stops fighting when supply and fuel run out. I've been run out of supply and fuel after doing some of the things you'e talking about in 42, and in spite of all of the flash and bang of these exciting early campaigns, it's not the best strategy for the IJ to last as a competitive force late.

India, OZ, the forays into Alaska and strategically bombing the West Coast, those are all about trying for AV. That's fine, and it's fun, but it is not a poor strategy to keep a solid defensible and historical perimeter. Check with Pax Mondo, Mike Solli and a number of other players who pay attention to the economic side of things. It's a game in itself. More territory and farther flung battles don't help it stay healthy.

I agree with this, and IF John had planned his reduced perimeter you would be spot on. Unfortunately John did not plan his current perimeter, it was fashioned by reaction and necessity. He also has suffered oil production loss and burned his fuel resources at a higher than normal rate - he is in big trouble.

When he reacts to the Circus invasion(s) he will further increase his fuel burn rate, still won't have time to upgrade or rest his surface fleet, and will once again be forced to commit his land forces piecemeal and with little prep.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

ORIGINAL: desicat

As someone who has played both sides I can tell you that the farther the Japanese go in 42-43 the better it is for the Allies, regardless of scenario. Even this one doesn't give help to the economy, and Japan stops fighting when supply and fuel run out. I've been run out of supply and fuel after doing some of the things you'e talking about in 42, and in spite of all of the flash and bang of these exciting early campaigns, it's not the best strategy for the IJ to last as a competitive force late.

India, OZ, the forays into Alaska and strategically bombing the West Coast, those are all about trying for AV. That's fine, and it's fun, but it is not a poor strategy to keep a solid defensible and historical perimeter. Check with Pax Mondo, Mike Solli and a number of other players who pay attention to the economic side of things. It's a game in itself. More territory and farther flung battles don't help it stay healthy.

I agree with this, and IF John had planned his reduced perimeter you would be spot on. Unfortunately John did not plan his current perimeter, it was fashioned by reaction and necessity. He also has suffered oil production loss and burned his fuel resources at a higher than normal rate - he is in big trouble.

When he reacts to the Circus invasion(s) he will further increase his fuel burn rate, still won't have time to upgrade or rest his surface fleet, and will once again be forced to commit his land forces piecemeal and with little prep.

Dont forget he starts with 1 million less supply, thats a big deal in my book.He will certainly get fuel troubles later but depending on how he handled the economy that might spell desater very soon.Especially considering he was fighting non stop.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: desicat

As someone who has played both sides I can tell you that the farther the Japanese go in 42-43 the better it is for the Allies, regardless of scenario. Even this one doesn't give help to the economy, and Japan stops fighting when supply and fuel run out. I've been run out of supply and fuel after doing some of the things you'e talking about in 42, and in spite of all of the flash and bang of these exciting early campaigns, it's not the best strategy for the IJ to last as a competitive force late.

India, OZ, the forays into Alaska and strategically bombing the West Coast, those are all about trying for AV. That's fine, and it's fun, but it is not a poor strategy to keep a solid defensible and historical perimeter. Check with Pax Mondo, Mike Solli and a number of other players who pay attention to the economic side of things. It's a game in itself. More territory and farther flung battles don't help it stay healthy.

I agree with this, and IF John had planned his reduced perimeter you would be spot on. Unfortunately John did not plan his current perimeter, it was fashioned by reaction and necessity. He also has suffered oil production loss and burned his fuel resources at a higher than normal rate - he is in big trouble.

When he reacts to the Circus invasion(s) he will further increase his fuel burn rate, still won't have time to upgrade or rest his surface fleet, and will once again be forced to commit his land forces piecemeal and with little prep.

There is an HR on strat bombing oil/fuel in this game as I understand it. He doesn't have to worry about places like Magwe (300 oil) that the Japanese routinely lose in late 42 to a cloud of 500 pounders. That "pays" for Medan right there, and if he fixes Medan, that pays for steaming the KB around for a year.

I'm not saying John plays a strategic game as Japan, but that's kind of the beauty of this game. He's been forced to play smarter than usual!! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

There are flip sides. If Japan expands far it uses more fuel but the Allies have to expend more energy and take more casualties to reclaim ground. Or, as in this game, Japan has a tighter perimeter, spends less fuel, but the Allies don't have to reclaim the extra territory.

I do think it makes a difference that this wasn't voluntary for John. I think he's expended a lot of energy in reacting in ways that cannot be fully measured by the current perimeter.

[Canoerebel]

Great to see you back, Tsugaru Class Fangirl!

If you read this entire AAR you are a voracious reader.

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

ORIGINAL: desicat

As someone who has played both sides I can tell you that the farther the Japanese go in 42-43 the better it is for the Allies, regardless of scenario. Even this one doesn't give help to the economy, and Japan stops fighting when supply and fuel run out. I've been run out of supply and fuel after doing some of the things you'e talking about in 42, and in spite of all of the flash and bang of these exciting early campaigns, it's not the best strategy for the IJ to last as a competitive force late.

India, OZ, the forays into Alaska and strategically bombing the West Coast, those are all about trying for AV. That's fine, and it's fun, but it is not a poor strategy to keep a solid defensible and historical perimeter. Check with Pax Mondo, Mike Solli and a number of other players who pay attention to the economic side of things. It's a game in itself. More territory and farther flung battles don't help it stay healthy.

I agree with this, and IF John had planned his reduced perimeter you would be spot on. Unfortunately John did not plan his current perimeter, it was fashioned by reaction and necessity. He also has suffered oil production loss and burned his fuel resources at a higher than normal rate - he is in big trouble.

When he reacts to the Circus invasion(s) he will further increase his fuel burn rate, still won't have time to upgrade or rest his surface fleet, and will once again be forced to commit his land forces piecemeal and with little prep.

Dont forget he starts with 1 million less supply, thats a big deal in my book.He will certainly get fuel troubles later but depending on how he handled the economy that might spell desater very soon.Especially considering he was fighting non stop.