The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

In hindsight I think the HR has been the only thing that has prevented Japan from conceding defeat.

You have rose colored blinders on. [;)]

There is so much fight left in Japan.

[Canoerebel]

I was satisfied that Hokkaido was going to be a satisfactory target if the Allies could get within about three days of landing without detection. This was was possible but not probable. Hokkaido was weakly defended. The Allies were mainly going to land at Muroran and Kushiro, which were essentially vacant (the former has a fortress, but not a real impediment). The Allies come equipped with a massive Nav Support engineering unit (220 Nav Support). This unit along with 2nd Marines and 2nd USN BF would land at Muroran on D-Day. That's a level three port. That and the Nav Support would allow quick unloading. Some of the follow up units (especially tanks) were assault loaded. Many others were transport loaded.

I was convinced that 10 divisions plus a massive concentration of AA would make Hokkaido nearly impregnable - or so costly for so long that it would be decisive in the game. (Supply was key too, for reasons you gents have mentioned).

But I didn't have ten divisions. I had six. That's a much different proposition. So everything had to go just right for me to proceed.

But John's patrols (possibly out of Marcus?) caught wind of the amphibs about six days out. For reasons you guys are pointing out it made it a no-go for me. I had him dead on the garrison, but his ability to shift massive aircraft made it untenable. Losses would be very high. And the going would be slowed down.

I had to make the decision immediately and did so.

So Operation Circus switched to its secondary target - the middle Aleutian Islands. This has some of the same advantages as Hokkaido (more about that later) and less risk. Most importantly its close to strong existing Allied bases in the upper Aleutians.

John has some stout garrisons in the Aleutians and some very good interlocking airfields. So there is risk and some damage will be taken. But I'm much more comfortable that I was with the primary target.

More about what's going on later.

[desicat]

To me the target isn't that important, the invasion event itself is what is important. Sumatra still stands and now John is going to have to react - to something somewhere - and this is going to tie him down for another 6-8 months. I expect the real hammer to fall around April 1944 and that incursion will crack the shell of an unprepared and exhausted Empire.

Between now and then CR will be able to either build upon the upcoming invasions success or find the inevitable weak theater, Japans lack of initiative and time to build a prepared defense will be fatal in 44.

[T Rav]

CR, fantastic reading. I appreciate the nuances you bring to the game.

[Canoerebel]

5/27/43

Operation Circus: Switching to the Secondary Target (the middle Aleutians) has not gone seamlessly. John had a picket TF (two APDs) and sent it to sniff amongst my TFs, causing a bit of confusion as transport TFs scattered, thus slowing down some of the combat TFs, until finally a combat TF flagged by Oklahoma sank the enemy ships today. This should give John 90% certainty that this is the real thing. The only thing he hasn't seen is the Allied carrier TFs. He may see those tomorrow. Due to the scattering of TFs, they didn't make any progress and are still about 22 hexes from the beaches. I've reorganized to make sure that all transports are following good combat TFs. So hopefully the Show will be back on the road tomorrow.

The major targets (from west to east and in order of attack): Ulak (unoccupied), Adak (garrisoned - probably by a mixed brigade, 9th Australians to land here), Atka (unoccupied), Dutch (unoccupied) Umnak (at least a mixed brigade, 2nd Marines to land here), Akutan (unoccupied), Dora (unouccupied), Cold Bay (maybe a mixed brigade or regiment, 40th Div. to land here, this is right under the gun of the big Allied airfields at Kodiak and three forward islands).

Since these are secondary targets, prep is an issue. But weight of metal and surprise is what's important. I don't have to take these on D-Day or even anytime soon (except for the unoccupied bases). While Hokkaido needed quick conquests, this is an entirely different situation).

Battle of Sumatra: The real question is whether John responds to Circus by sending his carriers and BBs this way. I think he'll send his carriers. I think he'll send some of his BBs. But if he sends all of them, there's still some hope for Sabang. Runway service is almost 100% operational again after just a few days without bombardments. He needs just a few BBs in theater to keep it closed permanently and to wrap up the campaign in three weeks. I think that's exactly what he'll do. But I'm monitoring. And I have the fighters ready to move in if circumstances warrant.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: desicat

To me the target isn't that important, the invasion event itself is what is important. Sumatra still stands and now John is going to have to react - to something somewhere - and this is going to tie him down for another 6-8 months. I expect the real hammer to fall around April 1944 and that incursion will crack the shell of an unprepared and exhausted Empire.

Between now and then CR will be able to either build upon the upcoming invasions success or find the inevitable weak theater, Japans lack of initiative and time to build a prepared defense will be fatal in 44.

If I were playing Japan my response would be to defend with available forces, throw a counterpunch with the KB, and then go about building up the defenses on Hokkaido. It would require no reduction in my efforts on Sumatra. The only thing I would fear as the Japanese is the Allies establishing a base for sub operations so close to the Home Islands.

[desicat]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

ORIGINAL: desicat

To me the target isn't that important, the invasion event itself is what is important. Sumatra still stands and now John is going to have to react - to something somewhere - and this is going to tie him down for another 6-8 months. I expect the real hammer to fall around April 1944 and that incursion will crack the shell of an unprepared and exhausted Empire.

Between now and then CR will be able to either build upon the upcoming invasions success or find the inevitable weak theater, Japans lack of initiative and time to build a prepared defense will be fatal in 44.

If I were playing Japan my response would be to defend with available forces, throw a counterpunch with the KB, and then go about building up the defenses on Hokkaido. It would require no reduction in my efforts on Sumatra. The only thing I would fear as the Japanese is the Allies establishing a base for sub operations so close to the Home Islands.

Agree, but having followed John's games for years I expect him to react to CR's new incursion with massive force. I think it is better than 50/50 that the BB's that have been pounding Sumatra will react North and CR will have a chance to do something at Sabang. I wish he saved a small reaction force to take one of the Nicobar Is airfields to provide a bit of support, but one can't do everything.

[Canoerebel]

Poodle, I think John's reaction will be pretty frantic. He recognizes that Hokkaido is totally open right now. Essentially his entire army and fleet are in the DEI. For all he knows, I am still coming for Hokkaido. From his perspective its very vulnerable here at the dawn of things and before cold reasoning shows him how hard it would be for me.

And the Aleutians are really quite a plum too, especially given the history between John and I. He thinks so highly of them that he has 7th Div. posted at Attu (and left Hokkaido essentially undefended). With some or most of the Aleutians in Allied hands, John's going to feel the threat to the Kuriles and Hokkaido for the rest of the game, beginning now.

If there's a threat there other distant places lose some of their primacy. If he's worried about Hokkaido, then the Gilberts or New Caledonia aren't as high a priority.

So this is about forcing John to spread his defenses realistically. He'd put his entire armed might into the DEI. Now he's got to spread them out. Less concentration creates more opportunities.

[Canoerebel]

5/27/43b

Somewhere I lost track of days. This post is the "real" thing for the turn of the 27th.

You'll have to forgive me for being pretty excited. I know I've been posting a lot and with much relish and enthusiasm. In part its relief over having chosen the secondary target, which seems to me much more reasonable and sustainable; in part its because I really like the value of the target; in part its because I've caught John by surprise (always fun parts of AE for both sides), and in part (very big part) it's because for the past four months, while trying to get this thing going, I've just had to sit and take punishment in Sumatra day after day after day after day.

Operation Circus: Things are back on track now. The lead amphibs (all of them, actually) are 16 hexes from the first beaches. So probably three days until D-Day.

John is not loading up the Aleutians airfields, at least not yet, nor did he get a single NavSearch hit today. I think he's lost sight of the entire armada. What bits and pieces he's picked up probably has left him a bit undecided. I think his biggest concern is Hokkaido. And I think he'll switch emphasis as soon as he realizes the Aleutians are the target (probably tomorrow).

Lots more SigInt showing John is shifting his emphasis north, including 2nd Div. bound for Truk. All these "to Saipan," "to Tinian," "to Truk" sightings are probably waypoints for refueling. Even a report today of a sub bound for Tinian (there hasn't been a sub sighting in CenPac, NoPac or West Coast since before Sumatra). There may be a bit of deception involved. But there's no doubt in my mind there's a paradigm shift going on here. This is what I was referring to yesterday when writing that John's tight perimeter hasn't been by choice and has involved a lot of energy expenditures. I'm certain I caught him leaning way too far the wrong way.

Battle of Sumtra: The Kongos bombard Sabang today, so John isn't taking his eyes of the prize. But for some reason damage done was exceedingy slight. The airfield is operational. But I can't take a chance on moving aircraft in until I know there's a reduced BB commitment sufficient to keep the airfield operational. No enemy ground movement or attacks yet. I think John will end up with seven divisions against my seven rather tattered divisions. But he could be bringing in more.

[JeffroK]

Today would have been a good day for JIII to sight a largish TF, and maybe a BB, heading toward somewhere uselesss, Nauru-Truk-Rabaul.

Just to make him blink.

[Canoerebel]

5/28/43

Operation Circus: Lead amphibs are 11 hexes from the beaches. In some kind of weirdness, John either doesn't have NavSearch flying or the NavSearch isn't doing the job. I don't believe he's had any sightings in the past two days, maybe longer. He has dozens of TFs within 11 to 15 hexes of some of his big bases, but none of them show detection. I can't figure it out - my best guess is that he's expecting the invasion elsewhere - Hokkaido? Marcus? Kuriles? And he still doesn't know my carriers are up here (that's probably a blessing, as perhaps he still thinks this is a feint).

Barges landed a USA battalion and a base force on a deserted IJ dot hex SE of Cold Bay. It will fall tomorrow, giving me a PBY base four hexes further west.

Because I had expedited Circus so much, I was going in with six divisions instead of the hoped-for 10. Some of those lagging included Peanuts 1, 2 and 4 (6th and 7th Australian Div. and 41st USA Div.) Two of those are now on the map with the third about to reach Canal Zone. I won't need these up north, so prep will begin for other targets. Another Circus participant, a big Indian division prepping for Amchitka, arrived in Aden a month ago, awaited opening of the Med, and is en route to West Coast.

I think two CV, two CVL, and three or more CVE arrives in the next two months. Also, an RN CV is upgrading at San Fran and will be ready in two weeks (this was a SNAFU - she arrived a long, long time ago; plenty of time, so I thought, to upgrade, but the upgrade took 73 days, meaning she wasn't available for Circus, meaning I kicked myself twice over).

Battle of Sumatra: Yamato and Friends bombard Sabang, this too has negligible effect. I don't know what's happened to John's bombardment missions, but the last two have been impotent after three months of nothing but "the hammer" every time. No advances on Sabang yet on ground.

[witpqs]

Maybe he pulled naval search assets out of the Aleutians to cover elsewhere, upon realizing that he had gaps in more important places. Maybe like Hokkaido?

[Capt. Harlock]

If I could've timed Circus a month later, coming with 10 divisions and 20 carriers, John would've had no choice but to pull his BBs from Sumatra. Sumatra is important, but nothing like Hokkaido. But I just couldn't squeeze out that extra month.

Is it possible that a CD unit (to interfere with the minesweepers) could have bought that extra month?

[Encircled]

If it is the Aleutians, then you've certainly bought enough!

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

If it is the Aleutians, then you've certainly bought enough!

Far too much, methinks there is still some level of deception going on[;)]

[JocMeister]

Oh! You are landing in NORPAC? Thats a relief. [:)]

I thought you were going to land on Hokkaido which made me worried. NORPAC is an excellent target! [&o]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John is not loading up the Aleutians airfields, at least not yet, nor did he get a single NavSearch hit today. I think he's lost sight of the entire armada. What bits and pieces he's picked up probably has left him a bit undecided. I think his biggest concern is Hokkaido. And I think he'll switch emphasis as soon as he realizes the Aleutians are the target (probably tomorrow).

A note again about Japanese capabilities here. A Japanese player can either ship non-[R] troops to Hokkaido easily from China, Manchuria or the HI or can fly a lot of [R] troops quickly by air to Hokkaido since it's in the same home islands General Defense HQ. It should be possible to shift as much as he needs up there within a month or two, and he may have some engineers already building forts in preparation (or at least he should).

Either way, it'd take all of a few weeks to get another couple of divisions moved there using transport planes and without having to pay PPs. So it's not hard for him to get garrisons here now that you're showing an interest in the North, and these aren't troops he'd use in the Marianas, CentPac, or in the DEI. The same is true for the Kuriles, also (almost all) under the same HQ as the HI, and all of which can be bought to change into that HQ.

My point here is that if you're not going to be in the Kuriles or Hokkaido with this OP or soon after you're actually leading him to more strongly garrison the area you're moving to threaten, but (unless you have another 7 divisions prepping for the Kuriles) with plenty of time to get set up and without any lessening of ability to garrison other areas.

This is where the Sumatra campaign will hurt you. Yes more troops will come, but it'll make you continually have to think about the BIG MOVE with those you have available, rather than a scaled and gradual campaign aimed at putting pressure on around the perimeter, forcing him to try and garrison the entire front with non-[R] troops (which is impossible for Japan).

Without having played the Japanese it's hard for Allied players to know how it feels to have the entire map threatened after putting everything you have into preparing to defend it, and still not having enough. Japanese players all know where they are vulnerable, and where they've picked their poison, and they're hoping they can hold the veil up just long enough until more troops, more and better planes arrive.

[crsutton]

Kind of agree with Obvert here.

[Canoerebel]

5/29/43 and 5/30/43

After absorbing nearly five full months of daily punishment, I have enjoyed seeing the Allies finally swing into action. Since February 18, when the nuclear bombardments commenced at Sabang, there have been sometimes as many as seven a week. I could do little but watch and hope that one day Circus would pay dividends on patience. Thus far it's coming together nicely, and I hope you'll overlook the level of my excitement.

Operation Circus: The combined Allied forces - Kiwi, Aussi, West AFrican, Canadian and American - have successfully and with little opposition initiated amphibious operations in the middle Aluetians. Already, ungarrisoned Ulak Island fell to an American RCT. Adak Island, the central strongpoint, turns out to be more lightly held than expected - a Naval Guard unit with a bit of support. BBs Washington, North Carolina and Massachusetts opened the show with a very strong bombardment (oh, the cleansing feeling after the longs months at Sabang...). 9th Australian Div. landed here with some American tanks and three AA units (Kiwi, African and Canadian). It's possible this base could fall tomorrow, despite lack of prep. And a Marine raider battalion landed at unoccupied Atka and should take it tomorrow.

Even as the main carrier and combat TFs remain in station at and near Adak, Circus will move east. The next targets are Umnak (2nd Marine Div. to take on probably a mixed brigade) followed in close order by Dutch Harbor (ungarrisoned). In three or four days 40th US Div. will land at Cold Bay.

Thus far there hasn't been any opposition. There are big enemy airfields and I would expect John to load them up to attack tomorrow. There is danger here, of course, especially should my carriers get targeted.

Read SigInt right now is a blast. It continues to show an enemy in a state of flux. Now, suddenly, 2nd Div. is reported bound for Paramushiro. A few weeks ago it was in Sumatra. Then it was heading east to the Solomons, then north to Saipan. And 116th Div., recently bought out of China, sent to Sumatra, and then diverted to Darwin, is aboard marus bound for the Marianas. That's roughly four divisions confirmed moving north in the past few days. That may be overblown or understated - it's hard to know for certain. But my suspicion is that John is reacting sharply to surprise and perceived danger (probably exaggerated in his worry and uncertainty, understandably). I think he'll move here in strength to counter and to stabilize. Where there's movement there's friction. And even while he's trying to move a sizeable portion of his assets most of the way across the map, the Allies are already getting ready for Circus to hit the road for performances at other venues.

Battle of Sumatra: The enemy stack is advancing on the east side - I think seven units that might arrive tomorrow. I have 1550 AV behind the four forts still with plenty of supply. Another bombardment on the 29th did negligible damage. Something's gone wrong suddenly with the IJN bombardment routine, which is a godsend. If John keeps his BBs in theater, though, it's inevitable that he'll take Sabang in a matter of a week or two. But if he pulls his BBs away, we'll see.


Evaluation: This is not the end of the war. It is, as one American officer said after Guadalcanal, the end of the beginning. The Allies have so many options to open the offensive portion of the game. To my way of thinking, the Aleutians are more important than the Gilberts, Marshalls, Fiji, New Caledonia, the Solomons and eastern New Guinea. This is not a mortal wounding of Japan by any means, but have the Allies actually managed a major offensive in an important area without the enemy having strong combat ships and carriers present? That remains to be seen. But Circus is off to a propitious start.

[Crackaces]

Aleutians are more important than the Gilberts, Marshalls, Fiji, New Caledonia, the Solomons and eastern New Guinea.

As this AAR expands I would like to understand this strategy in terms of comparing to the avenues you propose.

Myself, I think Burma is the most important axis, then gilberts/marshals mainly because in the Gilberts the Allies can concentrate the aircraft from multiple bases against a single target without much danger of interlocking bases.
This I believe is key in 1943/1944 until the Allies prune the IJ a bit ...