OT: Corona virus

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Let's run a simple simulation, shall we? One valid for the Western World in a general sense.

1. You (with this meaning "a general guy") open shop again (let's say it is a shop for simplicity). You are infected but asymptomatic. After a few days a percentage of your customers fall ill. Some tracking is done and the cluster is centered around your shop. You lose all your customers, you have to close shop and, according to the laws of your country, possibly become target of a score of lawsuits (God forbids that a customer's elderly in-laws got the virus via you). In any case, your activity is, "de facto", wiped out.

2. But wait, it gets better! You are not a carrier and everything is fine. But your neighbour is. Some of his/her customers get infected and, since they are doing a shopping round, they come to you next. Soon or later you get infected. Go to 1.

3. Amazingly enough, it gets even more better! After a while people start to realise how all this "we want our liberties back!!" brouhaha is creating hot spots in shopping areas - not somewhere you want to be. People stop shopping again, discover that the new freedom cry is "Give me liberty AND death!", and all economic activity returns back to zero - but with more people infected (and an higher strain on the healthcare infrastructure, as intelligently noted).

4. A nice ribbon to tie it all. Next time you declare how "The Coronavirus emergency is over, no really this time it is, we want our economy back!!!1 (sic)" people will be much more wary and the economy restarts in fits and coughs because (to use an Italian idiomatic form) you burned your word. And this if mortar and brick business still exists and Amazon hasn't bought the World.

Simulation ended.

Do you want to risk this? (because, admittedly, this is not a given - only a model of what could happen if the coin drops with the wrong face up) Maybe you don't agree with this simulation in the first place? Fine. Break the model. We are in a wargaming forum and this is a wargame of sorts: it should be fun! Just show me where it is wrong. The rest it hot air.

Neither European countries or the USA can afford to stay in lockdown until we have a vaccine or even 'universal' testing. So at some point we are going to have to get used to a situation where we may indeed be asymptomatic carriers but have started living our lives more normally because that is what the situation demands. It's about managing risks.

I don't think anybody here is arguing that we should now just 'go back to normal'. Similarly I think most people appreciate that we can't just carry on like this indefinitely. There may be differences of opinion in terms of the extent of 'normal' that we will be returning to and how long that will last - but that is because at the moment we are dealing with a massive information deficit because nobody really knows how many people have actually been infected. If it is a high proportion we might find ourselves able to go back to 'normal' quicker than expected. If it a low proportion and closer to the reported cases then we probably won't be able to go back to normal till a vaccine is ready. In that situation the challenge is to find the right balance between full lockdowns and full normality.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Let's run a simple simulation, shall we? One valid for the Western World in a general sense.

1. You (with this meaning "a general guy") open shop again (let's say it is a shop for simplicity). You are infected but asymptomatic. After a few days a percentage of your customers fall ill. Some tracking is done and the cluster is centered around your shop. You lose all your customers, you have to close shop and, according to the laws of your country, possibly become target of a score of lawsuits (God forbids that a customer's elderly in-laws got the virus via you). In any case, your activity is, "de facto", wiped out.

2. But wait, it gets better! You are not a carrier and everything is fine. But your neighbour is. Some of his/her customers get infected and, since they are doing a shopping round, they come to you next. Soon or later you get infected. Go to 1.

3. Amazingly enough, it gets even more better! After a while people start to realise how all this "we want our liberties back!!" brouhaha is creating hot spots in shopping areas - not somewhere you want to be. People stop shopping again, discover that the new freedom cry is "Give me liberty AND death!", and all economic activity returns back to zero - but with more people infected (and an higher strain on the healthcare infrastructure, as intelligently noted).

4. A nice ribbon to tie it all. Next time you declare how "The Coronavirus emergency is over, no really this time it is, we want our economy back!!!1 (sic)" people will be much more wary and the economy restarts in fits and coughs because (to use an Italian idiomatic form) you burned your word. And this if mortar and brick business still exists and Amazon hasn't bought the World.

Simulation ended.

Do you want to risk this? (because, admittedly, this is not a given - only a model of what could happen if the coin drops with the wrong face up) Maybe you don't agree with this simulation in the first place? Fine. Break the model. We are in a wargaming forum and this is a wargame of sorts: it should be fun! Just show me where it is wrong. The rest it hot air.

Neither European countries or the USA can afford to stay in lockdown until we have a vaccine or even 'universal' testing. So at some point we are going to have to get used to a situation where we may indeed be asymptomatic carriers but have started living our lives more normally because that is what the situation demands. It's about managing risks.

I don't think anybody here is arguing that we should now just 'go back to normal'. Similarly I think most people appreciate that we can't just carry on like this indefinitely. There may be differences of opinion in terms of the extent of 'normal' that we will be returning to and how long that will last - but that is because at the moment we are dealing with a massive information deficit because nobody really knows how many people have actually been infected. If it is a high proportion we might find ourselves able to go back to 'normal' quicker than expected. If it a low proportion and closer to the reported cases then we probably won't be able to go back to normal till a vaccine is ready. In that situation the challenge is to find the right balance between full lockdowns and full normality.

From https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04 ... demic.html, emphasis mine:

But getting out of the lockdown — and out of your shelter-in-place bunker — is not the beginning of the end of the pandemic. It is only the end of the beginning — the very brief beginning of what seems likely to be an epically long saga of disease, fear, and uncertainty.

...

There are, practically speaking, three paths out of the coronavirus crisis, to a way of life that resembles the one interrupted by COVID-19. The first is a vaccine. The second is effective treatment for the sick — not just effective at the margin, but so effective that catching the disease becomes a considerably less worrisome prospect for even those with comorbidities. The third is through herd immunity, when enough of the population has acquired COVID-19 antibodies that even with a return to “normal” life, there wouldn’t be enough opportunities for disease transmission for the virus to continue circulating through the population.

...

Here are the timelines for each of the three. The most optimistic projection for vaccines is that they begin to be available this fall; other reputable estimates suggest between one and two years from now. A two-year development cycle would be unprecedented speed for any vaccine, and, while scientists are quite optimistic, no vaccine has ever been developed for a coronavirus before; onto each timeline you’d have to add some amount of time for rollout and administration.

...

That leaves herd immunity. Epidemiologists tell us it requires between 60 to 80 percent of the population to have antibodies. At the moment, though, lack of testing means we don’t have a clear picture of the spread of the disease; a generous rough estimate for how many Americans have been exposed is 5 percent. While there are some reasons to hope that the exposure could be significantly higher, 5 percent would be more than ten times higher than the number of known cases, and would be in line with large-scale serological surveys in Holland (where the disease has been relatively widespread), suggesting that 3 percent of the population had antibodies. Others projections suggest that the U.K. is only 5 to 6 percent through the course of its pandemic, and recent models estimate an immunity level of about 6 percent across seven European countries. And it means, taking that generous figure for disease exposure and the low-end threshold for herd immunity, we would need 12 times more exposure than we’ve had to this point — in other words, that we are only one-12th of the way through this crisis.

That may sound bleak, and there are some indications that the population spread could be much more broad. But assuming no wild underestimate of total asymptomatic cases, one-12th of the way through the crisis is a very optimistic projection, if not quite a best-case scenario. It is possible that even less of the public has been exposed — perhaps one percent or lower. At that level of exposure, we could be only one-80th of the way through the pandemic, requiring 80 times more infection and exposure to attain herd immunity than we have had to this point.

Now, disease spread is not linear, which means 80 times more exposure doesn’t necessarily mean the pandemic has to last 80 times as long as it already has. But it does mean, probably, that to reach herd immunity many, many more people will have to get sick — some of those very sick, and some of those lethally so — before we find ourselves, in any meaningful way, in the clear.

More good points if you follow the link.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

LOL.

Obvert has applied Asian Georgia regulations to USA Georgia.

I could live with that.

I love ponytails.

Pigtails, technically.

Correct. In a ponytail, all the hair is collected at the back of the head and tied together. Pigtails refer to braided hair. I see at least 4 in the one on the far left.

On me it is call a scalplock(s).

[Sammy5IsAlive]

The link isn't working for me - might be because I am trying to access from outside the US

Along similar lines (so similar that I slightly wonder if it is the same author re-purposing his article/numbers for a UK audience) - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... s-pandemic

[MakeeLearn]

Speaking of pigtails...


CDC assesses plan to reopen Smithfield Foods pork plant in South Dakota, a US coronavirus hot spot
16Ap2020

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/fo ... 150398002/

"SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — Federal health officials hope to take the first steps toward getting a South Dakota pork processing plant and coronavirus hot spot back up and running.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had staff in Sioux Falls on Thursday touring the Smithfield Foods, Inc. plant. That step comes three weeks after the first COVID-19 case involving a Smithfield employee was determined on March 24.

The CDC team is assessing conditions and developing an action plan needed to safely reopen the hog harvesting facility that's been shut down for nearly a week, according to Gov. Kristi Noem's office."

[MakeeLearn]

France finds more than 1,000 coronavirus cases on aircraft carrier
Today


https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/ ... t-carrier/



"PARIS >> The French navy is investigating how the coronavirus infected more than 1,000 sailors aboard the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, amid growing pressure on government leaders to explain how it could have happened.

The ship, France’s biggest carrier and the flagship of its navy, is undergoing a lengthy disinfection process since returning to its home base in Toulon five days ago.

One person remains in intensive care and some 20 others hospitalized, navy spokesman Cmdr. Eric Lavault told The Associated Press."

[MakeeLearn]

Texas to begin softening COVID-19 restrictions next week
04/17/20 03:30 PM EDT

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... -next-week


"Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said Friday that he plans to begin reopening different Texas businesses through a series of executive orders starting next week, making Texas the first state to lay out a defined rollback of COVID-19 restrictions.

As part of his plan, Abbott also announced the creation of the Strike Force to Open Texas — a task force comprised of doctors, business leaders and lawmakers focused on creating an effective reopening strategy.

"The Strike Force to Open Texas brings together nationally recognized medical experts with public and private sector leaders to achieve this mission," Abbott said in a statement. "By coming together, we can get Texans back to work, practice safe standards that will prevent the spread of COVID-19, and we can overcome this pandemic."

State parks in Texas will be open starting Monday, but residents will still need to wear face coverings and practice social distancing."

[RFalvo69]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
Neither European countries or the USA can afford to stay in lockdown until we have a vaccine or even 'universal' testing. So at some point we are going to have to get used to a situation where we may indeed be asymptomatic carriers but have started living our lives more normally because that is what the situation demands. It's about managing risks.

I don't think anybody here is arguing that we should now just 'go back to normal'. Similarly I think most people appreciate that we can't just carry on like this indefinitely. There may be differences of opinion in terms of the extent of 'normal' that we will be returning to and how long that will last - but that is because at the moment we are dealing with a massive information deficit because nobody really knows how many people have actually been infected. If it is a high proportion we might find ourselves able to go back to 'normal' quicker than expected. If it a low proportion and closer to the reported cases then we probably won't be able to go back to normal till a vaccine is ready. In that situation the challenge is to find the right balance between full lockdowns and full normality.

As someone who has an activity, I agree. Remember, however, how this debate started: me and others against the idea of reopening countries and states now, vs. Walking Dead-like crowds who want just that (*). I find this line of thinking dangerous not only for a specific area or country, but in a general sense.

As you rightfully say "the challenge is to find the right balance between full lockdowns and full normality." I don't think we will manage that feat by chanting slogans only; what we can do with the chantings, however, is to worsen the current situation in the frightening fast way the virus has shown us being capable of. Is there, out there, someone who wants to risk this for real?

(*) The quote is not from me: it has been used today by a prominent newspaper, but the accompanying picture was frighteningly accurate. No, no politics = no newspaper name.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Speaking of pigtails...


CDC assesses plan to reopen Smithfield Foods pork plant in South Dakota, a US coronavirus hot spot
16Ap2020

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/fo ... 150398002/

"SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — Federal health officials hope to take the first steps toward getting a South Dakota pork processing plant and coronavirus hot spot back up and running.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had staff in Sioux Falls on Thursday touring the Smithfield Foods, Inc. plant. That step comes three weeks after the first COVID-19 case involving a Smithfield employee was determined on March 24.

The CDC team is assessing conditions and developing an action plan needed to safely reopen the hog harvesting facility that's been shut down for nearly a week, according to Gov. Kristi Noem's office."

On Smithfield the BBC ran this report today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52311877

Obviously to be taken with a pinch of salt as it is more a 'human-interest' report than an analytical one.

In the UK a manager in a similar (although much smaller in scale) factory was recorded telling the employees that those that did not come into work may well not have jobs to come back to.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Speaking of pigtails...


CDC assesses plan to reopen Smithfield Foods pork plant in South Dakota, a US coronavirus hot spot
16Ap2020

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/fo ... 150398002/

"SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — Federal health officials hope to take the first steps toward getting a South Dakota pork processing plant and coronavirus hot spot back up and running.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had staff in Sioux Falls on Thursday touring the Smithfield Foods, Inc. plant. That step comes three weeks after the first COVID-19 case involving a Smithfield employee was determined on March 24.

The CDC team is assessing conditions and developing an action plan needed to safely reopen the hog harvesting facility that's been shut down for nearly a week, according to Gov. Kristi Noem's office."

On Smithfield the BBC ran this report today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52311877

Obviously to be taken with a pinch of salt as it is more a 'human-interest' report than an analytical one.

In the UK a manager in a similar (although much smaller in scale) factory was recorded telling the employees that those that did not come into work may well not have jobs to come back to.

"Smithfield Foods, Inc., is a meat-processing company based in Smithfield, Virginia, in the United States, and a wholly-owned subsidiary of WH Group of China. Founded in 1936 as the Smithfield Packing Company by Joseph W. Luter and his son, the company is the largest pig and pork producer in the world."

[MakeeLearn]

Clear night sky I hope....

The Lyrid meteor shower is set to peak April 21st-22nd with up to 20 meteors per hour! But it’s already started, so you could even see a few meteors now. The Lyrid meteor shower could shoot fireballs across the sky.

[MakeeLearn]

Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, and Moon to line up before sunrise this weekend


On Saturday morning, look to the east-southeast between 5 a.m. and about 30 minutes before sunrise(EST). In the coming days, the warning crescent moon will thin into a slender sickle, vanishing entirely as a “new moon” arrives Tuesday night.

[MakeeLearn]

In the book, the virus has a 100% mortality rate...

As I posted before, this type of happening has been in popular entertainment for decades.



-------------

CNN
Fri March 13, 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/13/us/dean- ... index.html

"Officials estimate the death rate for the virus to be around 3% to 4% globally, based on the information they have, though they expect that number to fall."

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, and Moon to line up before sunrise this weekend


On Saturday morning, look to the east-southeast between 5 a.m. and about 30 minutes before sunrise(EST). In the coming days, the warning crescent moon will thin into a slender sickle, vanishing entirely as a “new moon” arrives Tuesday night.

Yes, saw that this week. Really cool. Might even be able to see Mercury near the horizon right before dawn (not sure)

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

In the book, the virus has a 100% mortality rate...

As I posted before, this type of happening has been in popular entertainment for decades.

Sweet Baby Jesus! I'm gonna talk him into going to track with me!

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

In the book, the virus has a 100% mortality rate...

As I posted before, this type of happening has been in popular entertainment for decades.

Sweet Baby Jesus! I'm gonna talk him into going to track with me!

[:D] To place!

He missed the carrier. He has it as human only.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

France finds more than 1,000 coronavirus cases on aircraft carrier
Today


https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/ ... t-carrier/



"PARIS >> The French navy is investigating how the coronavirus infected more than 1,000 sailors aboard the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, amid growing pressure on government leaders to explain how it could have happened.

The ship, France’s biggest carrier and the flagship of its navy, is undergoing a lengthy disinfection process since returning to its home base in Toulon five days ago.

One person remains in intensive care and some 20 others hospitalized, navy spokesman Cmdr. Eric Lavault told The Associated Press."

Ships seem to be supplying a good look at what this virus will do in closed communities without social distancing in place.

Defense Minister Florence Parly told lawmakers that 1,081 of the 2,300 people aboard the Charles de Gaulle and its escort vessels have tested positive so far — nearly half the overall personnel.

The defense minister defended the decision to allow the ship to stop in Brest in mid-March, even though France had already ordered all schools closed to fight the virus and the government was preparing confinement measures. Hours after the ship left, President Emmanuel Macron announced a nationwide lockdown, among the strictest in Europe.

In a span of probably 3-4 weeks about half of the crew were infected and have been tested as positive. As above, it looks like the young crew are doing better than the demographic on cruise ships, with only one removed to ICU, and twenty others bad enough for admission to a hospital from 1,081.

In virtually every country it's been moving through the same must be true in the first weeks of exposure. So how many have really been exposed, infected and didn't even know it?

If we're going (mostly) by cases severe enough to have symptoms, then allowed to be tested, actual numbers may be much, much higher than we're looking at every day. I'm starting to wonder if that Oxford study might have more to it than it seemed.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
Neither European countries or the USA can afford to stay in lockdown until we have a vaccine or even 'universal' testing. So at some point we are going to have to get used to a situation where we may indeed be asymptomatic carriers but have started living our lives more normally because that is what the situation demands. It's about managing risks.

I don't think anybody here is arguing that we should now just 'go back to normal'. Similarly I think most people appreciate that we can't just carry on like this indefinitely. There may be differences of opinion in terms of the extent of 'normal' that we will be returning to and how long that will last - but that is because at the moment we are dealing with a massive information deficit because nobody really knows how many people have actually been infected. If it is a high proportion we might find ourselves able to go back to 'normal' quicker than expected. If it a low proportion and closer to the reported cases then we probably won't be able to go back to normal till a vaccine is ready. In that situation the challenge is to find the right balance between full lockdowns and full normality.

(*) The quote is not from me: it has been used today by a prominent newspaper, but the accompanying picture
was frighteningly accurate. No, no politics = no newspaper name.

Apparently now not just newspapers [X(]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52330531

Just to repeat Encircled's very sensible disclaimer a day or two ago - we in Europe are careful not to equate Trump, and any quarrels we might have with him, with the wider US public (and indeed with US politicians at state level and below)

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, and Moon to line up before sunrise this weekend


On Saturday morning, look to the east-southeast between 5 a.m. and about 30 minutes before sunrise(EST). In the coming days, the warning crescent moon will thin into a slender sickle, vanishing entirely as a “new moon” arrives Tuesday night.

Where is that photo taken from?! It's incredible. We've had Venus really bright recently - don't know if that is because of a reduction in air pollution or just a normal astronomical phase.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive




Where on earth has anybody said that???

Do you understand the meaning of the word innuendo?

Or how about the word imply?

Hans, the only thing you offer here is insult, aggression and tangents.

Post something useful and maybe someone will take your self-righteous indignation more seriously. Well ... probably not, But worth a try.

Well, true to form, this is the response I got in my inbox just now from Hans Bolter. Nice one.

Another profitable dialogue Hans! Thx! [:D]

-----------------------------------------------------

HansBolter just sent you a private message at 4/17/2020 7:37:28 PM:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

GFY

----------- End of Private Message (PM) -------------